Is Saudi Arabia the next new Dubai? As we go into 2025...
Have you ever thought about Saudi Arabia? If not, you are now!
Is it going to be the next new Dubai - Time will tell.
We have Trump Tower built and many other hard assets increasing within Saudi and investors seem to extending further. The growth of Saudi not only commodities advantage they hold, but the other relation matters.
That's the fact jack - Residential real estate prices and rents continue to soar in Saudi Arabia. The cities of Riyadh and Jeddah saw year-on-year sales prices jump by 10% and 5%, respectively, in the first half of 2024, according to property consultancy company JLL's KSA Market Dynamics Report H1 2024.
I'd personally be a dip buyer if we break out of this wedge and decline further for a medium term. If we are to break higher out of wedge there's great target areas.
I could go on further to discuss macroeconomic factors, see further on my Substack about 2025 outlook - Saudi Arabia, other EM countries and much more!
All the best for 2025 - Let's make it rain!
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KSA trade ideas
KSA | Time for a Bounce | LONGThe fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that incorporates foreign ownership limits and is designed to measure the performance of the large-, mid- and small- capitalization segments of the Saudi Arabia market. The fund is non-diversified.
Observation - Saudi Arabia & India ETF's showing strength I scanned through a list of ETF's and their respective ishares fund etf and came to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia is the strongest of them all and India takes a close second , literally every other country in clear stage 4 declines .
I may have missed a few smaller countries but this took into account most of them ( The top 40 based on GDP ) .
I know its trend is uncertain but looking at relative strength here and not patterns like head and shoulders top ect ect ...
The second place is India's etf , INDA .
Some stats for the two
Distance from all time high
- Saudi Arabia ETF - 16.92% below high
- India ( 2nd place ) - 18.84% below high
- United states ETF (ESGU) -25% Below high
Distance above 2020 low
-Saudi Arabia - + 107%
-India + 101%
- United States + 65%
Also , note the open gaps marked on chart , KSA is even keeping a gap from 2019 High open currently .
Pretty impressive ...
India's ETF - INDA
Saudi Arabia's ETF - KSA
USA ETF - ESGU ( but also very similar to SPY)
Did LIV Tour Mark the top in KSAKSA (Saudi Arabia) has broken beneath the channel from the 2020 low. The underside of the channel has acted as resistance the last few days. If you're unaware, the Saudis are the financial backing for the new LIV golf tour. Exorbitant amounts of money are being offered in order to attract players to the new tour. It stands to reason that the Saudis wouldn't be doing this unless they were flush with cash...which is a result of high asset values (oil in this case). They also wouldn't be doing this unless they were extremely optimistic and market tops are marked by extreme optimism. This is just a thought but the chart is interesting regardless.
-Jamie Saettele
Long Saudi Arabia Given recent tensions in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian ETF sold off and back-tested the previous resistance trend-line. The ETF has now rebounded off this trend-line, and looks bullish to continue to the July highs. Given the slightly weaker dollar macro picture, EM countries should be supported. KSA is a good play for a de-escalation in the Middle East and continued EM strength.
$KSA Don't Sleep on Saudi ArabiaOne market that has quietly, but powerfully, performed well for 2019 year-to-date has been Saudia Arabia's Tadawul All Shares Index, up 13.82% as of April 3rd 2018.
On a macro level, the country has been buoyed by a resurgence in the price of oil, coupled with the "Risk On" feel supporting the markets since January 2019.
More interestingly, on a domestic level, the country has been support by global index makers, such as MSCI, promoting Saudi Arabian shares for inclusion into global benchmark indices, such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This has been a boon for Saudia Arabian stocks, as Saudi shares have received billions in fund flows from global investors, and great exposure to global investors as this asset class opens up further.
Lastly, on a technical basis, the market technicals for Saudi shares ($KSA as a proxy) are quite strong, with the price being supported by the 10-day EMA since December 2018. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index for the $KSA has risen steadily since January 2019, indicating strong flows into Saudia Arabian stocks.
We believe that this trend will continue for 2019 and recommend investors to have exposure to have exposure to Saudia Arabia. For investors who are interested in profiting from this trend, the ETF $KSA provides a great opportunity for investors.