MSOS - Bull Flag Breakout?Since September, MSOS has been consolidating off the pop from news of possible rescheduling of marijuana.
With a triple bottom bounce of $6.90, it seems that this breakout is going to be likely soon.
If it does breakout successfully, we could see a movement of ~100% to about $14 levels assuming the move is the same as the length of the flag pole (bull flag). Which happens to be near Aug 2022 highs as well.
From a trading perspective, I would enter on a breakout with a SL below $6.70.
MSOS trade ideas
MSOS wanna get HIGH?erf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
MSOS News pump, so a short based off of past trends could be warrented, but watching for a nice correction and some reactions off of these levels starting at 6.44 and 5.56.
High FlyerJust hit the only monthly buy signal its ever had.
Next gap up on the daily @ $11.18.
Heavily shorted sector.
Weed = 6th largest cash crop in US
DOJ will agree with HHS.
SAFE Banking this month.
Most holdings are trading way under book.
I once smoked way too much of that butane hash/wax/dab
stuff once and I literally saw the back of my face with my face.
You kids are f*cking crazy....
"Man who smokes weed on toilet, is man high on pot" - ConfuciusI still believe that marijuana was way funner to smoke
when it was illegal and frowned upon. At my age now, I hate
the stuff - to strong/don't like the way it makes me feel. LSD BABY!
Despite all that, I am closely watching MSOS. Three things:
1. SAFE Banking Act will make this pop. Our do-nothing senate
reconvenes in Sept.
2. Just read an article about a former FDA official who believes
that marijuana will be legal in US before the calendar year ends.
3. Has hit the $5.06 to $5.11 bottom multiple times in the last
three months.
4. Jeff Spicoli.
5. I smoked so much marijuana when I was younger, that I forgot
how to count.
Will slowly be adding the following:
$6.00 Oct 20th & Jan 19th calls
$7 Jan 19th Calls
GLTA
Long $MSOS at $4.25?I've been waiting for $MSOS to bottom because the upside looks amazing once it does. But I think we'll see another leg down before we see the final capitulation.
The reason being the cloud on the 1D timeframe. With that thick of a cloud, almost no chance that price will break through it, and it leads me to think that the next move is likely lower.
Looking at the chart, I think the bottom will be $4.25. I'll likely wait for price to get down to that region, see how it reacts, and if we see a bounce, take a long term position.
MSOS | Time to Get High | OversoldThe fund is an actively managed ETF that seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in securities of companies that derive at least 50% of their net revenue from the marijuana and hemp business in the United States and in derivatives that have economic characteristics similar to such securities. It will concentrate at least 25% of its investments in the pharmaceuticals, biotechnology & life sciences industry group within the health care sector. The fund is non-diversified.
Road to recovery?Several good signals from the past 2 months:
Actual legislation being passed on the federal level... signs of price action detachment from broader S&P... greatly increased volume compared to any time during selloff.
My bullish case is that I expect a final 5th wave surge to around 17.50+ followed by a period of consolidation for wave 2 with an eventual parabolic breakout to start wave 3. This will definitely require some legislative catalysts since I expect the broader markets to collapse once it finishes consolidating in a wave B. Probably sometime next spring. A broader market collapse also may not be the worst thing as investors pull their money from traditional safe havens like big tech and go bargain shopping in stuff like emerging markets.
I expect a recovery to trend along that 1/1 green line. I can't say that we're on that path... but do remember that emerging markets tend to bottom first and that a bottoming of the S&P will not necessarily correlate w/ a bottom in cannabis.
I will continue averaging in when value presents itself as I have done all year.
I am long crypto and pot and short the SPX and QQQ.
Jade Lizard Trade Idea for 12/23 ExpirationJADE LIZARD TRADE IDEA.
The idea of a jade lizard is to sell an out of the money put below the price, and sell a call credit spread above the price. The premium from the short put needs to be sufficient to cover the max loss of the call credit spread. And in doing so, there is no risk to the upside (still have to close the trade however). This is a trade idea on the neutral-to-bullish spectrum. The rumor is that congress is going to pass more pro-grass legislation before the change-over in the house.
$16 Call 12/23 Exp Buy to Open
$15 Call 12/23 Exp Sell to Open
$11.5 Put 12/23 Exp Sell to Open
Credit $155.00.
Collateral $1,150.
$PSIL Bombed out #Weed #ETF $MSOS attacking resistance lines...Will it pull up the
AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF?
Strength in the #Biotech sector would also be a friendly situation.
here are the top holdings:
CMPS COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC 13.12%
ATAI ATAI LIFE SCIENCES NV 9.73%
CYBN CYBIN INC 7.97%
SEEL SEELOS THERAPEUTICS INC 6.90%
ITCI INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES INC 6.44%
HUGE FSD PHARMA INC-CLASS B 5.82%
SAGE SAGE THERAPEUTICS INC 5.23%
ALKS ALKERMES PLC 4.84%
DRUG BRIGHT MINDS BIOSCIENCES INC 4.70%
I can see this ETF targeting $3.2 as its first port of call.
MSOS - Trade ReviewHow's it going everyone. Doing a short trade review here on this play I made this past Friday. I entered this position with the same attitude and strategy I always have in mind, which is essentially shorting stocks that are overextended on news or momentum caused by overall market performance. As many of you know, there were some news regarding marijuana charges. Personally, I didn't think it would cause such a spike on most of these weed stocks; however, it did. I entered this position during pre market. I had seen that relative to all the other marijuana stocks, this particular ETF had outperformed most of them on Thursday and was still up a considerable amount on Friday during pre market hours. I had noticed that the other marijuana stocks had gone up from 10%+ during pre market to being red. From this, I concluded that the play was safe enough to scale in, which I did end up doing, bringing my average from around 13.3 to 12.81. This was a considerable jump; however, I was pretty confident with this play. This essentially paid off as the stock dumped after market had opened and I was able to secure a 4.4% play. My exit could've been way better, but I wasn't home so I decided to take my profits. I jumped in once again at 12.32 right before market close and I'm currently up around 5%. Still holding over the weekend and will probably close the position on Monday. It could gap down even more but I'm satisfied already. Hope everyone did great on Friday.
$MSOS - AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF Chart July 2022AsvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) has been on a rampage and never shying away of selling off more than expecting, leaving pretty much the whole cannabis sector carrying the dead weight of a massive basket of synthetic weight, expelling a lot of investors and leaving the rest holding major bags from a short attach which started almost over 2 years ago now.
I believe we are on the last leg down on the current cycle and should see price action levels of $9.24 - $8.30 - $8.04 PT - As mentioned in prior published chart, I see 8/08 - 8/15 being pivotal dates that either will show signs of cycle correction that could lead into impulse or very may be an extension that continues to sell off (starts another 4-5 wave) for another setup around Nov. (which if that fails, rinse and repeat for Jan. and again in April...etc)
If the correction is to turn impulse right now, MSOS would need to close over $13.90 - $14.50, but unlikely event. After the 4th-5th leg down, if the cycle correction is present, there needs to be positive volume bids to close over $1140ish - $11.70(?) after our leg down. That should let the investor(s) know bull trap is likely broken and impulse will proceed. I remain cautious...
I see no let up or difference in the last two months of selling per vol profile. Each month prior averages 30M vol. and nearly 3 weeks of each month shows the volume reaching the 20 day average. The MACD on the daily appears to want to go north and grows closer to crossing the zero-line. But, is still far and below via weekly timeframe. The OBV doesn't show any weekly divergence, something to watch for when getting close to cycle correction.
The last two times I charted MSOS it each time if completely knifed and oversells on the 4th down into the 5th with some of the quickest bull traps, so let's see how this one plays out.
Advisor Shares Pure US Cannabis ETF - $MSOS Chart AnalysisTAKE A HIT OR LET IT SIT?
Just about to pivot on the interval cycle via 3/4 wave, I would expect to see a small correction that might be usable for a long swing for $1 gain (or more), but will begin to sell and continue this downward trend through out the summer.
Shaving another $3, I can see this cannabis ETF possible catching ground around $14.5 - $14. Hard to judge since that isn't any previous volume to support this ticker, but could present a cycle correction worth playing.
MACD is showing divergence, so I would assume this divergence will carry on through out the 5th wave.
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF - $MSOS Chart (Cont.)At the start of the week I hit my weekly semi-cycle 3rd leg and on Tuesday, my interval daily cycle hit the 5th wave. I was looking for a semi-correction, but instead was surprised by Thursday (yesterday) price action sell even more. So, I went back to the drawing board and calculated some more data -- This might be way too early to call, but here we go.
$15.13 was my price target for the start of a semi-correction, selling down to $13.70 was unexpected, but with new data, I think I see what's going on here and makes it a very interesting oversell action.
I believe we will see a summer correction through the next few months, north +$18 to and depending on the force of the correction, it could kiss $20 before finally selling off for the 5th leg, which could see $8 by next year.
With this is motion, I believe while most individual ticker appears to want to correct around the Aug timeframe, MSOS looks to start the sell off of the 4th wave, which I suspect will be the end of the ETF in general as August will bring legalization and allow anyone/everyone to start investing in which ever stock they want, no longer needing such basket holding cannabis tickers. Could be wrong though 🤷♂️
MSOS madnessI know no ones wants to touch MSOS or anything marajuana related but i believe it’s always smart to keep an eye out for everything.
I am making a small bet while we hit all time lows. Also, as a technical trader, It’s a big deal for me that this is the first time the RSI has dropped below 30.. Even better, bull volume came in as we hit the all time low while the RSI bottomed.. If Bulls can hold this weekly close and keep the RSI above 30, I will be a believer that MSOS can get high. Pun intended.
Not financial advice.
Happy Trading.
to catch a falling leaf pt.2I truly believe MSOs will bottom out at some point this year... if not already. Whether by way of a market wide dump during a correction, or by forming the bottom of a cup in an eventual cup and handle formation. I think the MSOs have some real world catalysts in place to start turning positive (SAFE Banking Act, more states legalizing, actual positive net income...) whereas the canadian growers are basically crossing their fingers for US legislation to pass while they bleed cash.
As with the canadian pot stocks tho, we want to really see this thing shallow out. The current downward trend is trudging along the 1/1 angle, but we need to start seeing local bottoms form on the 2/1 angle. If that happens, we'll likely see some kind ending diagonal form which would indicate wave C is finally coming to a close.
The other scenario is that this overheated market takes a dump and pot stocks go along w/ it... (see 2 yrs ago) in which case BTFD and hang on.
Ironically it's been the democrats that have been blocking SAFE from being passed into law... apparently looking like awesome social justice warriors is paramount in this endeavor. With their grip on Congress in question in the coming mid-terms they need to cut the crap and hustle to get something done. Expect a bump when SAFE passes as institutions start to get involved in the MSOs.
for fun only, not advice.
$MSOS AdvisorShares - US Cannabis ETF - BreakoutON VOLUME. Volume precedes price. A move without volume is suspect (see #shib).
States Reform Act on Monday should be a headliner for sure. Lot's of legislation to look forward to.
#cannabisreform
#thegem
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CEO Jessica Billingsley is Chair of USCC, United States Cannabis Council.
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The future.