3X Levered NAIL: Long Possible SoonMy opinion, one of the best levels to buy soon to be reached with NAIL, 3x levered home builders. Simple strategy, price gets to $21.14 let it fall below the line and then buy it when it breaks above the line. Set first take profit at +320%, remove a third of your position, then do the same at +500%, and 700% for the remaining 2/3's. Set stop to a fixed amount $20. As you can see these trades take a year, sometimes less or longer to develop, but are quite profitable.
NAIL trade ideas
NAIL: Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: above 177.44
Volume: above 566k
Target: 208.80 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 177.45, 167.00 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NAIL a homebuilding leveraged ETF rising from support LONGNAIL on a 14 minute chart tested the support at the rising trendline confluent with the mean
anchored VWAP and has bounced and crossed over the latter. Relative strength lines are
crossing over the 50 level and the relative volume is showing a gradual rise. This is the
beginning of homebuilding season after all. Mortgage rates might be getting a cut. I will take
a long trade here expecting a swing trade for a few months. Targets are on the chart. They
are based on the resistance rising trendline as well as the upper VWAP bands.
NAIL- an ETF of Homebuilders 3X leveragedNAIL- is an ETF of Homebuilders; It is 3X leveraged. Price is up over 30% in the first two weeks \
of June. It is shown here on the 30-minute chart with the "Market Bias" indicator which shows
uptrends in green and pull-back zones in gray. Presently, price is pulling back - when the gray
colored trend indicator changes back to green, an optimal entry can be made.The ADX indicator
has topped out as part of the early pullback. When the ADX goes below 25 and then crosses 25
from below, an entry can be made. An ADX over 50 and rising suggests that it is too late for
an entry and not to chase but rather wait for a pullback.
Overall, NAIL's price is now in early pullback by the "Market Bias: trend indicator and the ADX
which shows now a decreasing trend directional strength. Price is more than one standard
deviation above the mean anchored VWAP which is an level that professional traders want
to sell from. Because of all of this I will wait for an entry on NAIL until a pullback is completed
and the uptrend bullish continuation is seen.
NAIL 50% short term upside Another one where I feel wednesday NAIL will retest the 200ema from market panic on rate hikes. At this time I will add to a swing position and feel strong upside potential in a short time frame. Lumber futures are about to go crazy and although rates are higher this is reality.
Timing The Housing Market, Patterns Always (Win / Win Strategy)For over 2 years we've heavily referenced the NAIL ETF ( Provided by Direxion ) to get a better sense of the overall housing market. As a measure of context, our experience / trading background included heavy exposure in supporting MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) and ABS (Asset Backed Securities) reference data providers. This is in no-way investment advice.
Needless to say, that with the right view, this particular security has been a pretty strong indicator on how the general housing and construction market will perform both in the short and long term.
One question that we are constantly asked, is whether the support price has already been reached. Well, historically speaking the support price hovers around US$20 and then bounces to over US$95. As part of our general methodology, we focus on generating a high volume of trades with automation, this allows for compounded returns (huge fan of pyramiding). So, buying at the support price, could well be one long-term strategy once the price reaches the US$20 support (if one can manage the stress associated with short-term risk), should the price drop even further one could increase the position to average down for a more preferable price.
On the other hand, we recommend that traders consider using two timeframes of reference for a guide on support and resistance levels. As an example, one could look at the long-term trend with 2–4-hour candlesticks across a large volume of ticks and then move to a shorter time-frame (such as the 15-minute candles) once a direction is established, to focus on directionally advantageous positions (either bullish or bearish outlook). This allows a swing-trader to remain in a position during times of volatility with a strong resolve based on back-tests that the future outcome will have some predictability.
The reason for this post is that we find that many "newly minted" retail swing-traders are focused on the short-term gain and tend to have stop-losses triggered fairly quickly. If one where to consider the approach above, a more loosely defined (%) stop-limit would allow for improved returns contingent on one using the long-term outlook as a guide.
Final Thoughts
Regardless of your strategy, we recommend one always trades with stop-limits and profit targets (this can be established with the tradingview strategy-tester), and more importantly focus on consistency. There is no such thing as a silver bullet, but historical trends on etfs certainly do help with timing.
NAIL potential retest of breakoutI bought NAIL in the pullback this morning as I believe this is a retest of the breakout in the downtrend. The daily indicators also look strong right now.
I'm keeping a stop just below the previous lows at 62.94 since if this is a bull trend now, it shouldn't break that support.
I believe around a 30% gain is possible in this breakout if you can be patient. Good luck!