NAIL trade ideas
UPTRENDLEVERAGED
No pattern really, just keeps moving up. Pull back very possible but hasn't pulled back a whole lot, so far that is. I have owned this one since the bottom so getting in now may be risky. I do feel it has a ways to go. It is getting close to overbought right now. Maybe one to buy a little of on pull backs
Just one to keep an eye on as this sector is hot right now
Not a recommendation
Top 10 Holdings
DHI - D.R. Horton Inc8.71%
LEN - Lennar Corp7.69%
NVR - NVR Inc6.51%
PHM - PulteGroup Inc4.87%
HD - The Home Depot Inc3.18%
LOW - Lowe's Companies Inc3.15%
SHW - Sherwin-Williams Co3.13%
TOL - Toll Brothers Inc2.51%
MAS - Masco Corp2.16%
BLD - TopBuild Corp1.72%
NAIL 4h chart
Another pattern that confirms the previous daily pattern with a slight difference in targets and a stop-loss limit
sell 42.35 to 42.20
T1 35.00
T2 30.20
SL closing up 47.00
Let's Hope I'd Nail This One!What I see...
+ Found Support from mid-March slump
+ Prices moved side way formed multiple cup and handles
+ Tested $21 Resistance back in late April and pulled back
+ Prices approaching $21 again forming a triangular wedge
+ RSI at 56 and rising
- MACD is above signal line but in negative zone
- 10MA is under both 50MA and 200MA
- Price is far from the rising 10MA
What I setup...
+ Long entry above neck line
- Stop under last week's channel low
+ Target at mid-March high at ~$31
Home Builders are destroyed if there is a sector that deserve a bigger rally than the homebuilder sector … please name it NOW
Almost +700% gain in less than 2 years What goes up must go down …. Homebuilders and supplies Sector is the biggest looser this year
Good Risk Reward + Fundamentals on NAILIn october 2017, NAIL broke $50 for the first time and doubled in the next four months (around a 33% gain for the normal home-builder ETF). Since then, we've taken back the entirety of those gains as we worry about interest rate hikes and the overvaluing of the space. Point is, I think the selling's about over.
We have stabilized with a seeming double bottom in the low 50's.
While price has been falling, the macD and RSI have been rising (on average), creating bullish divergences. Furthermore, the MACD is close to flipping positive, and the RSI just crossed over its 5 day SMA.
While we are currently battling with ichimoku resistance, but I expect us to make it through the top within the next month.
I already own a bit of NAIL, averaging in $54-$56, and am looking to add on any pull back.
To add to the technicals, fundamentally construction earnings are still positive (see lenar earnings last week), and new home-building economic signals are surprisingly good. While no one wants to own the homebuilders as the cycle turns over, its my personal opinion that we won't get there in 2018, as long as we all continue to worry about it :).
49.50 is my stop loss, and if I hit my sell point I will most likely only sell half and hold the rest until the fundamentals tell me its time to sell.
This is for my educational purposes and is not meant as investment advice.
NAIL LONGI opened a small position on this 3xETF. The indicators look like a buy to me. Only buy once the trend develops. Its a lesson i had to learn the hard way.
