US Sector Performance using Equal-Weighted Sector ETFsThis chart shows sector performance over the last year, 4/2021 to 4/2022. The chart uses a weekly timeframe and compares equal-weighted sectors. Many major indices and ETFs are skewed given heavy weightings in technology, consumer discretionary, and communications mega-cap stocks (mostly the FAANG stocks and MSFT and TSLA).
A few other observations that are readily apparent from this sector comparison:
1. Energy's has been extraordinary in its outperformance.
2. Real Estate's outperformance makes sense given given the inflationary fears that materialized into high inflation rates over the past year.
3. Utilities, Healthcare and Staples have been outperforming, especially lately especially over the past 1-2 months, which confirms the defensive posture of the market recently and over the past year. This defensive outpeformance suggests that markets are not fully in risk-on mode despite the powerful 2-week rally that occurred in 2H March 2022.
4. The prominent underperformers have been Consumer Discretionary and Communications Services. (Meta Platforms (FB) is the top component of Communications services, and it has been in a sharp downtrend since September 2021.
Charts like this help a trader view where the money is flowing in the broader markets without the analysis being distorted by overweighting in FAANG names.
RSPT trade ideas
US Technology Continues to Get CrushedUS technology sector continues to get crushed. The chart above is a equal-weighted version of the tech sector.
An ominous H&S pattern appears that was confirmed a few days ago by a decisive break of the neckline on higher volume. With the speed of the decline, October 2021 lows may well be taken out.
However, a reversal could present an excellent long opportunity for tech. Patience is key given the intensity of the selloff and the strong negative momentum here—buying the reversal too early in tech could be "catching a falling knife."
Bank of America analysts today said that higher rates are "breaking tech" and that bounces should be sold. Analysts get it wrong, though, and any retreat by the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks would likely spark a reversal—or at least a very healthy bounce worth trading.
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This is a clear channel over the last 6 months, not wavering outside of it. Last downfall was a minor profit taking, expect price to rise.