REITs looking bearish across the sector. H&S setups galoreFirst noticed this when I was scouting $ABR as a potential candidate for puts. I was looking for H&S setups, and liked the look of it. If you look at $ABR chart (daily or weekly) I imagine you'll see what I mean. Looks like we're peeling off the 20MA on the 1D to the downside. (Earnings are tomorrow, as a heads up)
But yes, this led me to look at other names in the sector to try and add to my overall conviction. And I found that while some have already made their move to the downside - I also found a bunch of tickers that seem like they're on the cusp of breaking down
Apart from $ABR the other names I'm looking at for moves toward downside in the sector are $O and $UDR . $O especially. In terms of more of a 'macro' view this year I think with increasing interest rates, inflation through the roof etc. I think real estate sector is going to feel some notable pain this year. But of course, theories only mean so much, let's just focus on the chart setups as/when they come. For now, the sector looks bearish
The options I'm personally trading currently are: $ABR Mar 18th '22 $17.5p (cost basis 2.51) and $O Mar 18th '22 $67.5p (cost basis 2.05)
Posting this moreso to draw attention to the sector in general, rather than my exact personal plays necessarily. Hence using $SCHH as the image for this 'idea' so people can see the sector overall. Note the rejection/inability to breach the 20MA on the weekly. I think this thing could sag and fold over.
Hope this is helpful to some! And as always, please let me know your thoughts/comments if you have any! I'm always open to new ideas, viewpoints and constructive criticism etc.
SCHH trade ideas
SCHH: Possible 20% GrowthSchwab's real estate (RE) ETF SCHH, (1) looks poised for at least 20% growth to reach its pre-Covid inflation-adjusted status, shown in the lower BLUE trend. Because M2 has been so extremely inflated post-Covid, (2) you really have to control for its expected distortion of equity prices. The GOLD-colored trend is SCHH unadjusted. There aren't too many unfinished post-Covid climbs still out there, but this looks to be one of them. RE equities could go higher still due to unleashing of pent-up demand and a rush to increase RE inventory. That demand is likely to remain pent-up to some degree for some time as building-material supplies struggle to reach equilibrium with demand over the next year, during which high RE prices may dampen buyer enthusiasm. Given that bottleneck, a dip in RE equity prices could be around the corner, offering a buying opportunity. My sense is RE could be a solid hold for a few years.
(1) www.schwabassetmanagement.com See also Vanguard's RE ETF @ investor.vanguard.com and XLRE @ www.sectorspdr.com . Imo, SCHH looks better, and appears to have more upward Covid-recovery room too. But the RE ETFs are mostly similar.
(2) fred.stlouisfed.org