SLV trade ideas
$SLV Got Long This Name Today LT HoldNot a trade a -its a long term hols looking for min 50% upside - not advice
SLV - 17.69 possible resistanceI had been watching the 17.69 level as a possible "neckline" for a reverse head and shoulders formation. Strength continues so just sitting back and letting it play out. As always, I try hard to suppress my optimism but the strength has definitely shown proof that the move is impulsive.
Silver ETF Just Had a Golden CrossAs we cited yesterday, a “ weak dollar ” trend is taking shape in the currency markets. This has been accompanied by strength in commodities like copper, gold and silver.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) could be the most interesting today because its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just rose above its 200-day SMA, resulting in a “Golden Cross” for the Silver ETF.
SLV has also squeezed into a tight range for the last 1-1/2 months as copper and gold have run. This creates the potential for a breakout.
Price action has taken the shape of an ascending triangle in the last three weeks. There’s been a series of higher lows and resistance is around $17.
Interestingly, SLV had a similar pattern in April and May before moving above $15.
OPENING: SLV AUGUST 21ST 17 SHORT STRADDLE... for a 1.92 credit.
Notes: Rank/implied at 52/39 with the at-the-money short straddle paying 11.5% of share price. Will look to manage at 25% max or on side approaching worthless.
SLV - Test of Breakout?Added a bunch of 2022 LEAPs just in case. Could see an explosion. At least if wrong, my time frame has been extended out another year
SLV - Ready to Attack Feb High!SLV is at a critical juncture right here and a push above the overhead resistance will put it back in attack mode for the Feb highs. Would like a solid close today on better volume.
SLV - Looking ImpulsiveMy expectation for some downside action last week did not occur. On Friday, thought it was going to happen with a quick slam down to 16.30 but by the time I could blink, it was quickly rising back up. Such a bid in the paper market is to say the least, a bit surprising after the long, sustained selling that we have seen for years. I guess I'm not used to it at all.
When looking at the weekly line chart, the two corrections appear to be text book Elliott Wave Theory with the wave 2 correction being a zig-zag and the wave 4 correction being a flat. It's a bit confusing as we see that wave 1 might have only been 3 waves instead of 5. Still expecting some sell at least to complete an A-B-C correction but if the wave 4 is a flat, then we might only expect price to drop to 16.20 completing the formation.
If this is a bullish wave, Wave 5's in commodities are generally the strongest so perhaps a push up to the 20 level can be possible. In the end, for me the signals are mixed and confusing. I continue to accumulate on the physical side and have cut my paper options to only slightly bullish with long 2022 LEAPs. Most of the 2021 LEAPs have been sold or spread off.
SLV : CATCHING UP TO GOLDJust as Gold is breaking out to new highs, Silver is potentially on a juncture where it could continue is intermediate uptrend. Fibonacci Price Extensions and Elliot Wave analysis applied. SIL (silver miners ETF) already breaking out from consolidation observed thru On Balance Volume (OBV) indicating buying pressure.
Tight SLV play around Fib RangeSilver trapped in a range for Options with Straddles, Strangles and IC or BWB plays over next few days.
A breakout or drop will happen with inverse correlation with SPY. If XAUUSD breaks to new highs (1790?) then see XAGUSD and SLV lag by a few days/hours as well...
SLV - Ending Diagonal CompletingLooks like it can go down to 15.50. What comes next? Not sure but have been lightening up on my paper longs.
$SLV Lines Up Potential Bull Market Trend AheadSLV put in a perfect candidate for a long-term cycle low with the dive under $12 in March because it sliced through stops for even the most committed longs, leading to a world where metals are strong and stimulus is through the roof, forcing those same victims of the liquidity crash to stampede back in.
Bulls shouldn't hang on under $13.75 at this point.
SLV Three Week Test of High - FailAs suggested a couple of weeks back, a three week test of the high (on the closing basis) tested and failed. On an interday view, I was looking for a possible high of 16.65. We got up to 16.60 and fell from there. I took the opportunity to sell off some of the in-the-money Jan 2021 calls, as if this setup proves correct, no telling how low prices might go.
That is, if they go down at all. I was surprised that we weren't able to get any sell in the past couple of weeks. We had one day (Monday) when we opened down somewhat sharply. I took the opportunity to sell some Puts. Opening positions as I thought that we might go down to at least 15.50 but that proved to be the only opportunity for the week to establish short puts. As I mentioned in my last comments, this has been rather unusual as we had seldom had opportunities to sell calls.
The physicals have become more available and the premiums are coming down a bit Heard also that the Fed had been bringing down the balance sheet some. The panic bid in metals appears to have disappeared so let's see if we get back to the normal game of big smack downs to cover shorts and replenish LEAPs.
SLV - Wait for it!SLV looks to me like it's headed to the promised land. RSI divergence. Gold/silver ratio needing to normalize while gold marks time. Bull flag break coming. Wait for it!
Head & Shoulders on Silver (SLV)Looks like a pretty clear head & shoulders pattern on Silver, confirmation was a broken bottom.
Going short.
This is not trading advice, just an observation.
SLV for BearsThis could happen to SLV in a bearish scenario if dollar rises for some reason
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