SILVER: potential bearish ABCD pattern. Retrace almost DONE!SILVER: potential bearish ABCD pattern. Retrace almost DONE!
Define stops according to your risk profile.
SLV trade ideas
SLV - Second Guiding View for Next WeekThe 40-period moving average is one that I often refer to for longer term guidance. Looking at how SLV has reacted to the 40-week moving average over time gives some additional input as to how I will position myself next week. Not sure if the strong buying momentum will continue into next week's opening or if option expiration activity was a key factor. If anyone out there watches the expiring option open interest levels to make price predictions, please chime in.
Seems like in most cases, price has shot through the 40-week average but has then served as a magnet to pull prices back down to either ride this average or break away. So using this, along with a previous shorter-term channel view in the last post, I'm thinking of selling some May 22 $16 puts, especially if we open a bit weaker. Seems that price can run perhaps up to 17 - 18 over the next few weeks and still be in a B move of a corrective phase with another move down later. I've seen some projections of prices breaking under $10. I'm targeting 12.5 or thereabouts but must say that my calls haven't been so spot on recently.
My Excel data on the daily basis shows strong upside momentum in all the cycle indicators so I want to sell puts to continue taking in premium on the weekly basis. First was thinking that the 15.5 level is where the 40-week average comes in and that would be a seemingly easy short put position. But seeing how price generally overshoots that line on it's first attempt through makes me think that the $16 put is worth the risk. If I'm dead wrong on this, I sold June 19 $12 calls yesterday so I would only be moderating any profits I would accrue on the downside.
For the bullish side, I have lots of Jan 21 LEAP spreads ranging from $16 to $20 offset by $25 calls, some outright Jan 22 calls and the physicals. Those positions don't get touched as I'm long term bullish. The long term goal is a Mike Maloney prediction, that 1,000 ounces will buy one a nice home when prices reset. I'm shooting for a beach front condo in Mexico! Que Bueno, no?
SLV - Strong Day - Channel FormingSilver easily pushed through expected resistance levels. This channel shows a good 10% move could happen pretty quickly. Still thinking it could be a B wave in a correction with lower prices yet to come. But this chart setup looks positive. While Stochastics are on the overbought side, the BBW indicator is starting to increase showing me that momentum is building.
Keep on stacking . . .
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SLV - Finally at Golden Pocket FIBHopefully this is the push that finally gets SLV back to where it was pre-virus. Dips being bought and miners giving us some hope. As a long time fave character of mine would say....Giddy up!
Silver reaching overbought areaSilver approaching overbought. May see bottom of the channel at 13.75 some time in the next few days.
SLV - A Little More Upside PossibleLast week I was looking for a test of the 14.80 recent high mark and still am however looking at different views, I see a possible move up to the 20-week moving average based on the following observations.
SLV appears to be in an A-B-C corrective phase with the A wave running from 17.28 down to 11.62 in three obvious waves.
SLV had some trouble on Friday staying around 14.60 and dropped down to 14.44 to close the week. The 50% retracement of the A wave is right here at 14.45. Perhaps not a bad place to sell. But it's possible that the current B wave up structure might run up to the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and that could also be meeting with a declining 20 week moving average.
The wave structure for the current B wave move shows 3 small waves up from the March 16 low to a minor a wave at 14.34 on April 6. Next came 3 small waves down to 13.92 on April 27. Thus far, we have but 1 wave up. If this B wave goes 3-3-3, then we could expect a small drop back and then a final move up to complete the B wave.
An interesting article explained how physical silver could be selling for around $10 premium while paper silver declines. I linked it below.
double top completed...its in correlation with spxi just need a big scare into the dollar...as the dollar rises these will drop
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SLV - Looking for possible topLooking at a weekly view, SLV might test the 14.80 level (and fail as always). Looking for a move down to 12 or lower by the end of June. Long my LEAPS and physicals but have been selling options a week or two out on every little pop. It's been paying off as SLV has been dead lately. Will sell June 19 $11 calls if we get up to 14.80
SLV Long - Look for price to rally quickThe SLV chart has clearly shown a break out. I think we should expect a quick rally in the near term.
SLV - finding FIB support!SLV has found FIB support from its high on Sep 2019 to its low last month, and from that swing low to the high it made last week. Bull flag consolidation pattern. RSI and MACD should move higher. Watching this one closely.
SLV - lot of work being done at this level!Looking for upside break-out soon. Feels like it's under accumulation. SLV playing catch-up. It's coming.
SLV - still something to prove!On a monthly chart SLV is holding critical support with some optimism as the economy opens. Not sure, but to me it looks like something is brewing. Downside or upside break? It's still in a long downtrend but holding support. MACD getting smoother and RSI looking favorable for a move to the upside. Large monthly red liquidity spikes should be followed by some green buying as markets open and things move toward some type of normalcy. I would expect SLV to get back to its pre-coronavirus price soon. Again, the GLD/SLV ratio is still historically very high and the chart there looks like the ratio wants to fall. My two cents on SLV.
slv to 9will silver hit 9 first then finally to low of 6.50 as dollar goes to 160 eventually within the next two years....
SLV - Another Head and Shoulders Brewing?On a daily view, the odds of hitting 12.85 look pretty good as this could be a head and shoulders neckline. Additionally, the 50% Fib retracement makes it a likely target. Selling some $13 calls as this rally tops.
