SLV trade ideas
SLV - Wave 4 driftSLV continues it's sideways action thus far continuing in what appears to be a standard wave 4 correction prior to rallying into wave 5. The indicators shown seem to confirm that this is at best the wave 4 correction and the established channel indicates further possible drift until the end of the year. The spike that occurred this week was quickly sold but it does seem to show the potential explosiveness that could happen overnight.
Fundamentally, the fiat currency system appears to be in jeopardy as the Fed embarks on what appears to be a new round of monetary stimulus. The world is awash in debt. Any attempt to raise interest rates can only result in disaster. Social and political turmoil is sprouting up around the globe yet precious metals languish. Several countries are now establishing gold markets in currencies other than the US Dollar. Various countries and central banks are accumulating precious metals.
The size of the silver and gold markets are tiny compared to other markets like currencies, bonds and stocks. A broad-based move to add precious metals to portfolios could reveal this size and boost prices back to the highs. That's pretty much a triple from today's prices. There aren't many other market classes that can provide this much bang for the buck. Seems inevitable but for now, patience is required.
SLV - Channel Projection OpportunityAlong this channel, SLV can find itself at 22-26 by Jan 2021 option expiration date. Those call spreads are at $032 now. I did 20-25s at $0.51. At the 22 lower channel line, that's still at 4:1 play. Of course, options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. But for me, a good time to continue adding to the 2021 position in light of my earlier post.
SLV - Big Leg Up Coming?SLV looks to be poised for a move to the upside. Good fundamental demand and good technicals should drive this higher. MACD and RSI looking good. Hang on or add to right here. Not giving up much lately. Trading above its 20 and 50 day averages.
SLV- Golden Opportunity in SLVLong in silver -gold laggard, buying more shares today.
Short sells on $TIF and $HON
SLV - LongSLV - Silver ETF is in a Wave 5 of bullish impulse move. Target is mid 19-19.50 by mid November.
SLV - Bull Scenario Remains in PlaceStrong Headwinds of higher interest rates and the potential China trade deal kept pressure on SLV this week. The correction continues and can continue to drift to the moving average. Still, the longer term outlook remains positive as prices continue to hold the 50% retracement level. The next target remains the 1.23% Fibonacci level close to 20.
SLV Key Price 16.30If SLV closes at 16.30 or better today, could be off to the races tomorrow. Today's low is a penny above Monday's so thinking that we will hold here and begin impulsing higher tomorrow.
SLV Channel Defined But . . On the short term, it appears that SLV has completed wave 4 and is now starting on Wave 5. With the Fed announcing what amounts to QE4, precious metals rallied higher however there is still overhead resistance. While lower prices to the lower channel line would be temporarily disappointing, it would be a great opportunity to "load up" on cheap calls. Following this channel or a 20 week moving average, one would expect that SLV be holding a minimum level of 18 by Jan 2020 option expiration and much higher prices throughout the next year. Be prepared to buy if another shakeout occurs. My gut tells me though that the move starting now will catapult SLV to above 20, quite possibly to 25 before retreating into a lengthily consolidation period.
SLV Corrective Action Complete?One can never really tell how elaborate corrective actions can be but it does appear that an impulsive move up may be what's coming next. The next major price target is the previous major high around 19.77. It's possible however that this target might not be hit until early next year. With that timeline in mind, I have been adding to 2021 LEAP call positions on the dips and liquidating 2020 calls on rallies. The stochastics indicator reading can be used as one of the tools to provide overbought/oversold readings to take action.
When looking at SPX move since 2009, it's impossible to forecast how high SLV could go if we are in fact entering into a Bull Market. Most Elliott Wave scenarios I've seen suggest that the current moves for gold and silver are merely Wave B of an overall corrective pattern with more downside to eventually come. If we are in the initial phases of a Bull, the length and magnitude of the move could be substantial. With computer algorhythyms and easy money controlling the market action, only short-sightedness and impatience might be the limiting factor in your profits.
Pirate adventure over?Sadly, this adventure wasn't as long lived or profitable as I had hoped, but chances are the boat has been seized by officials and we shall never arrive at the 'X'.
(What I dislike most about this chart is the amplitude of the RSI peak. It is comparable to many of the previous peaks just prior to impending collapse. No point trying to catch a falling knife.)
SLV Feeling like Getting Shaked Down?I have been taking this opportunity this morning to add to my long term position. As you can see, the monthly trend is still up with higher lows and higher highs. Today is month's end so as long as we don't go below today's lows tomorrow, the monthly trend is still intact.
On the shorter term view, looks like a normal correction in progress. Hey, if you want big gains, you have to accept the big volatility. If you are trading this, you've got to love these swings. Thinking that the Jan 2020 16-18 call spread is a pretty good bet on a better than 4:1 payout. I bought some of these for 50 cents as we dipped to 16.
Pirates at a crossroadIt seems our pirate ship may have been discovered by some officers as we progress toward our treasure. We are at a critical crossroad.
A battle may ensue that will either result in a continuation of our treasure hunt or sink this ship.
(There should be at least one rebound, so it's time to set tight stops and tread extremely carefully.)
SLV Wave 4 Setting Up for move to 20Still holding an uptrending channel. Holding this level would be super positive, setting up for a wave 5 move to the top of the channel. By rule, Wave 4 cannot breach Wave 1 so while lower prices are still possible, impulse waves generally conform to the channel. As my long term outlook is for eventually testing the highs, I was buying Jan 2020 and Jan 2021 LEAP calls.
Earlier write- discussed the double bottom pattern. To prove the double bottom formation, price would need to break through the last major high just under 20. My expectation was that it would pick up steam and run to fill on gap on SLV above 25.50. Not certain if gaps in SLV get filled like gaps in stocks since XAGUSD trades pretty much continuous. I was watching today to see how SLV would react to filling the gap. I was buying as that gap filled. It then rallied from their but backed down at the close of the day. So I'm thinking that gaps are valid and there may be a run to 25+
As 20 gets touched/breached, would expect some selling but also, as another poster wrote, buying above 20, a breakout level, was the strategy.
As the five wave pattern completes, I'm expecting the ensuing correction to last around 3 months, possibly into next year, so I'm planning to liquidate the 2020 calls, holding on to the 2021s. Expect lots of great trading opportunities during that correction phase to build a large position in anticipation for a run to test the highs.
SLV Next Wave to 18.70?Appears that we may be in a wave 2. Wave 1 being 16.61 to 17.41. If wave 3 moves 1.618 of wave 1, targeting 18.70.
SLV Successful Test of LowsSLV had every opportunity to head down much lower today but upon filling the gap, prices immediately reversed. Analysis: Successful three day test of the low. Price should now rally to form a three week test of the highs. While daily closing prices might be higher, the weekly target price to surpass is only 17.15. Possible rally could/should move into the next week as well however if SLV rises above 17.15 and cannot hold that level, I will need to reassess my intermediate-term outlook Possible that market-moving news, i.e., Iran, could be an impetus for a sharp rally higher, but do believe that while the president talks tough, he is not likely to strike at Iran, at least not militarily. Such a move would be a dramatic game changer across the board.
SLV A Little More Shake Out On Tap?Perhaps another shake out coming tomorrow with Fed talk coming tomorrow. Still long term bullish but grabbed a handful of cheap SLV puts at the close today just in case volatility strikes again
SLV Possible Monthly Support viewRunning a 10 month average with a long term support line shows that on a monthly close basis, we should hold support around 15.70.Still a strong bullish trend in the works
SLV Will Buy the Dip Mentality Move to PMs?A more bullish view may place us in a minor wave 4 of a larger wave 3 structure with a test of the highs and the potential wave 5 coming in a couple of weeks. Some suggest that in commodities, wave 5 can be the strongest move. My longer term view (other posts) suggests a confirmation of the Major Double Bottom. To complete this formation, SLV must break above 20. As Central Banks continue to lower interest rates to negative levels, the move to precious metals should continue. With the gold/silver ratio so out of whack as it has been, it's possible that silver will eventually test the highs.
SLV 2022 LEAPs are now listed. My patient money goes into LEAPs and physicals to take away my urge to trade my positions. Spreads are not friendly here resulting in stable long term positions.
