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SLV trade ideas

Silver : Negative Interest Rates, QE4, End of PetrodollarAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold . Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 2006 in the case of these investment trusts. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index ( TDI ) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar agreement. % Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz TDI: Bullish divergence in formation Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued Note: SLV is not equivalent to owning physical silver. Trade SLV at the risk of fund insolvency and loss of investment - most holdings are suggested to be physical.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
SLV Resistance Right Where We ExpectedThe Fed''s decision to "pause" rate hikes justified the current levels for silver. That may have marked a short term top (SELL THE NEWS) as price touched the top of the lower sloping channel. The monthly chart shows that the recent monthly test of the closing low failed. While prices rallied despite closing lower in November (testing the August closing low), I am expecting another stab at that November closing low. A close above that level at the end of Feb signals a successful test of the low and a good chance for higher prices. A gap up above the channel line changes everything!
AMEX:SLVLong
by Glewis54
How the FED Will Pump SilverHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more. It is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the "bad debt black hole" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale. QE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold, silver and oil. We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation. That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine. When will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut. Side note: Largest physical holding of silver, and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM. JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
2
SILVER VS BTC BUBBLE ANALOGIn our BTC vs SLV analog piece we identified remarkable similarities within the charts. Trying to figure out the time frame of the consolidation area is key. In SLV, the timing of that consolidation period was over 3 months, however, the 500% rally also took 2.5 years. In BTC, the 500% rally only took ~9 months. With this scaling in mind, the consolidation period in BTC may be closer to ~1 month than 3. Any clues as to WHEN the next move occurs is critical when it comes to trading BTC Derivates, because in options, timing is everything! In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months. We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure. Over a month ago, we came out with an analog piece comparing the Silver bubble of 2011 to the most recent bubble of BTC. In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months. We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure. Contacts Tim Kelly Founder and CEO tkelly@bitooda.io Brian Donovan Executive VP of Institutional Sales bdonovan@bitooda.io Dr. Ilya Kurland Chief Derivatives Strategist ilya@bitooda.io About BitOoda BitOoda is a digital asset advisory firm specializing in trade execution, market analysis, and structured products. For business inquiries, please e-mail info@bitooda.io
AMEX:SLVShort
by BitOoda_LLC
1