Still bearish on High BetaSPHB short looks favorable to work again. This time a nice ratio of 2.18 Reward to Risk.
SPHB trade ideas
Themes Themes:
Last night on radio I spoke about the value versus growth theme and also mentioned our custom safe-haven index which has now broken to the upside of the channel in place since July.
In terms of value vs growth, I also mentioned on Monday that Q2 & Q3 2020, value over growth & cyclicals over defensives were easier calls than it is now. For e.g. Deere went from $180 to nearly $400 in 8 months while financials are nearly 2x. If one is buying value or cyclicals NOW, you should consider that it may pull back following the very strong run. In that case, your time horizon and ability sit tight is going to matter immensely.
Above are some of the themes I'm influence my medium term decisions.
- Value vs Growth: General trend is higher.
- US Small vs Large Caps: Finding support on the 200-day SMA
- S&P 500: Rolling over slightly
- Emerging Markets continues to be weak versus developed markets
- Global Safe-Haven Index: Channel break out, may back-test before moving higher again.
Moving Averages = 200-Day Simple
Cyclicals at Demark Exhaustion PointMany pension funds are rebalancing out of stocks into bonds. Inflows into cyclicals will likely resume in April. The upward trend in cyclicals is still present.
High Beta / Low Beta Ratio ChartBullish when rising --> Risk-Seeking market
Bearish when falling --> Risk-Off market
Another ratio that demonstrates non-confirmation as the market lunges to new all-time-highs.
Stocks & CurrenciesBoth ratios measure levels of risk appetite in the market.
Since the March low, these gauges have come increasingly more correlated to major stock indices
SPHB Leading Indicator for S&P 500So SPHB is respecting the fork so still in a down trend. Let's see if the S&P 500 follows... Follow the High Beta Stocks!
pennies to thousands weekly etf green after doji candidatewe like patterns like green after dog better if it gaps up cup and handle pattern hook pattern and long narrow base with bollinger bands widening always have stop loss orders pay attention to 200 day ma and cloud but cloud is thinning money flow strong macd and stoc crossed cci and percent r upper range rbi strong ww choose growth stocks between 1 and 8 dollars and strong etfs and short overvalued stocks always diversify
