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SPY trade ideas

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Special Update : BUCKLE UPThis video is a special update for all TradingView members. I felt I needed to share this information and present the case that I believe poses the most significant risk to your financial future - and it's happening right now. Several weeks ago, I identified a very unique mirror setup in the SPY and kept an eye on how it was playing out. I needed to see confirmation of this setup before I could say it had any real likelihood of playing out as I expected. As of today, I'm suggesting that we now have excellent confirmation that the US/Global markets are about to enter a deep consolidation phase, lasting through the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026 and early 2027. The interesting thing about this price pattern/structure is that it is almost exactly the same as the 2003-2007 structure, which I believe is the origin of this mirror setup. Almost down to the exact type of price bars/patterns I'm seeing. Many of you are already aware that I've been calling for a critical low cycle in the SPY on July 18 for many months. What you may not realize is that the pattern is based on Weekly price data. The July 18 cycle low can have a span of +/- 1-3 weeks related to when and how the cycle low pattern plays out. Watch this video. If you have any questions, message me or comment. I'm still here, doing my best to identify and unlock the secrets of price action and to help as many traders as I can. Price is the Ultimate Indicator. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
18
SpyBig week here. Rarely do you get big banks and big tech earnings on the same week.. Jpm, Goldman sach, and JNJ are dow jones heavy weights. This is important because I think Dow will close that gap at 44,850 and most likely retest ATH at around 45,000. As long as dow closes above 44,200 Monday, they will do this move Now logically you have to ask yourself, If Dow jones moves 800pts or 2% what will spy do? Well unless Nasdaq gives it all up early in the week then Spy will grind higher.. NASDAQ:QQQ 2hour chart is mimicking June's price action Even similar bearish Divergence on RSI So will tech Roll over this week? TSM and NFLX both reporting.. Qqq 30min price action, as long as price holds above 548.50 I wouldn't short this at all As you can see with the yellow channel price will be range trading between 551-555. Over 558 and 560 comes.. below 548 and 544 comes. This is actionable trading, I know some of you want a bigger picture on the short side but until we break below the 20sma I really don't like going full bear at the beginning of earning season... Yes, alot of things are flashing red signaling a major correction is looming , for Example here's XLC. This is the sector of NASDAQ:NFLX and NASDAQ:META Here's the weekly chart and RSI Very bearish bigger picture here, I could easily see this sector and the big names inside it going back to April lows But then You have AMEX:XLY The sector of NASDAQ:AMZN and NASDAQ:TSLA Nothing is bearish Herr and as long as it holds 217 they are going to push this back to ATH. NASDAQ:AMZN chart is completely identical So let's say NFLX and Meta have down days similar to last Friday but Amzn and Tsla pumps then you will get a small pullback unless the chipsector dumps also 😉. Remember there's always a bull in the market, they'll just rotate into something less overbought.. Only time you really see majority selling off is when there is a catalyst (Carry trade, tariffs) or Seasonality (March, Sept).. So I'm bearish on Chips NASDAQ:SMH and I'm bearish on AMEX:XLC but you have to be selective.. I wouldn't short NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:AAPL Those stocks will likely outperform this Quarter. As far as the banks earnings , even if they pop, I think this will be a sell the news event and this sector AMEX:XLF (Big banks) is headed for a massive correction The Small banks AMEX:KRE Have almost completed their V shape recovery and will most likely correct after this week Daily technicals are overbought similar to IWM but the weekly is where you see caution Top of weekly Bollingerband always leads to a major sell the following week AMEX:SPY 15min chart I'm bullish early in the week, I think they will buy the dip ahead of earnings so if they open up near Friday's low or the 15min 200sma they could buy it there, below 621 and they will go for the gap close at 620; that will be another dip buy opportunity . Stop loss 619.00 Below 619.00 and they have a gap left open at 614.84 to close. Stop loss 15min 200ma Trade Idea of the week is NASDAQ:GOOGL Bullish ascending triangle forming under 182.00 resistance.. Price may breakout this week 4hour chart Friday finished with a Shooting star so we could start the week with a pullback but I think googl will hold 177.00 support and that's a good entry for a long.. or wait for conformation which would be a break above 182.00.. So 177 or 182 is my entry Googl is only bearish below 172.00 or 200ma Personal opinion This administration Has promised 200 trade deals and have gotten only 3 so far. As we get closer and closer to August investors will get nervous and I think we will see another major sell! He's has kicked the tariff can down the road as far as it can go and still these countries are calling his bluff. Becareful because I think the next time trump won't fold
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
9
SPY at Key Support! Will It Hold or Break? TA for July 16🧨 GEX-Based Options Outlook: * GEX Sentiment: Negative gamma dominates (🟥 GEX 🔻), indicating elevated dealer hedging risk. * Put Wall & Support: * Major PUT Wall at 620 (⚠️ -38.47%) is being tested. * Additional downside liquidity lies below 618. * Call Resistance: * Upside resistance around 625–627, where both the 2nd CALL Wall and GEX7/8 sit. * IV/Flow Summary: * IVR 12.3 (low), PUTs 57.2% – bearish skew. * Option flow is protecting downside → less confidence in upside follow-through unless we reclaim 624.5+. * Conclusion: SPY is pinned around major support. A breakdown under 620 could accelerate downside into 616/614 range. 📉 1H Price Action & Trade Setup: * SPY formed a CHoCH breakdown and is retesting the wedge base. * Strong rejection from the 624.81–627.96 supply zone. * Price is now hugging trendline support and could trigger a bounce or further breakdown depending on liquidity sweep. Bullish Scenario: * ✅ Entry: Above 621.50 reclaim with confirmation. * 🎯 Targets: 624.50 → 626.80. * ⛔ Stop: 620 or below trendline. * ⚠️ Note: Only valid if SPY holds the CHoCH base and sweeps under 620 to trap bears. Bearish Scenario: * ❌ Entry: Clean break below 620, especially if it fails a retest. * 🎯 Targets: 618 → 615.50 → 612. * ⛔ Stop: Back above 622 with volume. 🎯 My Thoughts & Recommendation: SPY is balancing on a major PUT wall and SMC support trendline. If 620 fails, the path of least resistance is down toward 615 and potentially 612 due to the lack of supportive gamma levels below. A relief bounce is possible only if dealers regain control above 624. Keep stops tight, as this zone could snap quickly. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
3
SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown. TA for July 14SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown – What to Watch This Week 🧨 🔸 GEX-Based Options Sentiment (Tanuki GEX Zone) * GEX Summary: * Highest Call Wall (Resistance): 625–628 → strong resistance zone. * Highest Put Wall (Support): 618 → major gamma defense line. * GEX Flip Zone / NETGEX Support: around 620, where negative gamma begins accelerating downside moves. * Current GEX Bias: Bearish * GEX: 🔴 * IVR: 9.8 (very low) * PUTs %: 51.1% (risk off bias) * Call walls stack above, forming a clear ceiling. * Interpretation & Options Strategy: * As long as SPY trades below 625, the call resistance stack and bearish gamma exposure favor PUT buyers. * Breakdown below 620 may trigger an acceleration to 617 and even 615 where deeper PUT walls exist. * Avoid calls until SPY reclaims and holds 626.88+. * ✅ Suggested Options Play (Bearish Bias): * PUT 620p / 618p, 0DTE–2DTE if under 623. * Stop if price holds and reclaims 625.50+ with volume. 🟦 1H Chart Analysis – Price Action, SMC, and Trade Setups * Market Structure: * After the recent BOS, price formed a tight rising wedge, then broke CHOCH and now sits inside a retest box. * This shows distribution behavior and vulnerability to breakdown. * A clear CHOCH + BOS sequence is already completed on the 1H. * Current Range & Zones: * Consolidation Box: 621.50–625.50 * Trendline Support (lower channel): 621–620 * Demand Zone (H1): 617–618 * Critical Liquidity Below: 615–613.50 * Trade Setup – Scalp/Swing View:
Bearish Scenario (More Likely): * 🔻 Entry: Under 623 with confirmation * 📉 Target 1: 620 * 📉 Target 2: 617.50 * ❌ SL: 625.50 * 📈 Optional hedge/reversal: Flip long if 626.88 reclaims (very aggressive). * Bullish Scenario (Low Probability unless reclaim): * ✅ Entry: Above 627 * 🎯 Target 1: 629–630 * ❌ SL: Below 625 🧠 Final Thoughts: * SPY is currently sitting in a gamma trap zone, where it’s pinned between major put support (620) and call resistance (625+). * If price slips below 620, gamma forces could rapidly drive it to 617–615 zone. * Until we see strength above 626.88, the path of least resistance remains down. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk properly before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
SpySooooo.. the technicals are flashing red. No earnings No fed Speak No economic data We'll need a catalyst to get the reset going. There are 2 catalyst 1. Tariffs 2. 30yr bond auction Thursday I actually think between July 7th- 17th We will retest the previous high between 610-611. Depending on how long this takes the 20sma should gravitate toward 610 by the End of this week. The last two major Pullbacks actually took 2weeks and the price action was terrible. I circled it to illustrate And this is why I said this pullback could take up to July 17th to complete. July 18th is the kick off of big bank earnings and let me tell you from experience, you don't want to be going into earning season short especially if seasonality is against you. Banking sector AMEX:XLF I think price pulls back with the rest of the marker but pushes back up to 54-55.00 With bank earnings From there I expect a bigger correction Weekly chart says banks won't make it out of July alive . Most likely a sell back to 49-50 or 10% drop I would say this market would on be bearish with a close back beneath 600.00 on spy. The problem with that is, not every big tech stock is overbought and some actually look like they are about to rally higher. Here's an example of what I mean So here's NASDAQ:SMH or chip sector which is a reflection of Nvda and TSM Weekly technicals are saying a pullback is coming for this sector! RSI, Moneyflow are too overbought on both weekly and daily time frames so I'm expecting weakness here over the next few weeks. On the other hand you have AMEX:XLY This is the sector that reflects Amzn and Tsla The white line represents the resistance price was consolidating behind for 2months. The purple circle represents a major bullflag The green line is the V shape recovery that I think is about to happen with this sector this quarter. Price may retest 217-218 but if that holds this sector and the stocks in it will outperform. So what happens with the Spy if let's say you have Msft Nvda Avgo Tsm All red And then Amzn Tsla Googl Aapl Mostly green? Fawkery lol. And this is why I say a pullback to 610 and then we'll see.. AMEX:IWM and TVC:DJI still have a little room left to move higher but both are supper extended on the daily time frame and I expect a pullback from them this week There is 2 red flags I see on a bigger time frame and that is TVC:NYA and TVC:VIX NYA weekly chart Near the top of rising wedge here which means for the broader marker you will start seeing weakness in a few weeks Price could grind up here for a few weeks but I doubt we break above 21,000 Vix Daily chart and RSI Is screaming that a move to 23 is imminent If the vix pops back above 20 I can't see the Spy holding above 620 Trade ideas NASDAQ:TSLA I like calls above 322.00 Target 332. Have patience for the move above 322, tsla is beneath all its moving averages right now!. 332 will be tough, if price can break above that then 347 is next up NASDAQ:QQQ 557 is resistance . I like the short to 552 gap support. At 552 I'd cover and wait for a break below 548.00 to short to 544.. Below 543.00 and we close gap at 539. I don't think price will drop back below 539 before tech earnings Be careful about swinging short, it will only work if there is a vicious sell off. Otherwise you will find yourself with annoying small gap ups that will drag this out like I highlighted above on the Spy chart with the last to previous Pullbacks. So what I'm looking for over the next 2 weeks is a retest for Spy 610 and qqq 540. Then we go into earning season
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
13
$SPY: Composite Sub-Cycles (Recursive)Research Notes Documenting Commonality I’ve identified several bar patterns that formed following significant historical declines. They share notable similarities, as if suggesting that the magnitude of past major moves sets the structure of subsequent groups of sub-cycles (which I call "building blocks" sometimes). I placed them in respect to current scaling laws so the method of exclusion can be applied in order to familiarize with typical "terrain" of price dynamics at such phase. Documenting them because a direct study is the most effective approach to uncovering the essence of recursive patterns. Some of the bar patterns are lowered to highlight temporal aspect which matters more than price scale.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Select Your Trading Time There’s an old saying: “Plan your trade, and trade your plan.” But I want to add something even more important: “Pick your time to trade.” --- 💰 The Market Is Not Your ATM Everyone enters trading with one goal: make money. Some even think of the market as an ATM — pull the handle, cash comes out. But the truth is: ❌ The market doesn’t care about your goals ❌ It won’t move just because you need to make money today This is a brutal game. And you don’t control the clock. --- ⚠️ When You Force a Trade... Too many traders say: “I have to make money today.” “I need to hit $X this week.” “I just took a loss, I must come back now.” That kind of thinking leads to: Bad entries Overtrading Emotional decisions Big losses ❗ Trading success doesn’t come from forcing outcomes — it comes from waiting for the right moments. --- 🧠 What Happens on Low-Volatility Days Let’s take today as an example. SPY moved in a 2-point range all day. No momentum, no trend, just chop. Some traders: Ran one QS signal after another Forced trades just to feel busy Got chopped up by fast reversals Then blamed the signals But here’s the truth: AI or not , you can’t expect any long-volatility trade to work when the market is dead still. The only winners on days like today? Market makers and options sellers. --- ❓ Why Trade at All on a Day Like This? If the market isn’t offering opportunity, Why force it? Why chase trades? Why burn your energy? The smarter move is: Sit out Observe Wait for better setups Preserve your mental and financial capital --- 🔄 Recovery? Yes — But on Your Terms Some traders lose money and say: “I need to make it back today.” That’s emotional revenge trading. What if the market doesn’t give you a clean opportunity today? Are you still going to go all-in, out of frustration? ❌ That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling. --- 📍 QS Signals Are a Map — Not a Magic Button QS AI signals help you find opportunities — but even the best map won’t help if: You're in the wrong city (bad market environment) You’re rushing without checking road conditions (volatility, news, timing) Even with QS, you don’t have to trade every day, every hour. --- ✅ What You Should Do Be patient Respect market conditions Take a break on slow or tricky days Come back when the odds are in your favor --- 🧘‍♂️ Final Words You don’t have to win every day. You don’t have to trade every day. You don’t even have to be active to be successful. 🎯 Trade less. Trade smarter. Select your time wisely. That’s how real traders survive and thrive in this game.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by quantsignals
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade End Of Week Update For 7-4Happy 4th of July I've been very busy with projects and new tools for traders, as well as the new book I'm working on, and thought I would deliver an End Of Week update for everyone. In this video, I cover the past Cycle Patterns and how they played out for the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin, as well as add some of my own insight related to the market trends. All of my systems are still LONG and have not changed. I still believe this market is extremely overbought, and I believe it could roll over at any moment into a pullback - but we need to wait to see if/when that may/does happen. Gold made a big move higher this week, and I believe that move could continue throughout July. Bitcoin made a surprising Double-Top and is not rolling downward. Could be a breakdown in the markets as BTCUSD tends to lead the QQQ/NQ by about 3-5 days. The SPY/QQQ rallied like a rocket all week. It was absolutely incredible to see the markets rally like this. But, I'm still cautious of a sudden rollover top. I managed to catch some nice trades with options spreads this week, and my metals positions were on fire. I'm still trading from a "hedge everything" mode as I don't trust this rally, and I'm still watching for REJECTIONS near these new highs. Stay safe and GET SOME. DM me if you have any questions. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
SPY Approaches Gamma Wall-TA for July 10SPY Approaches Gamma Wall: Key Zones to Watch for Tomorrow’s Trade 🔥 GEX Options Sentiment Analysis: SPY is currently hovering just below the major GEX resistance zone around 624–626, where the highest positive GEX and gamma wall overlap with strong call walls (52.17% and 41.33%). This region has historically capped upside momentum, so traders should prepare for potential rejection or breakout scenarios. Downside has modest protection around 620 (HVL level), with negative GEX zones building near 619–617, marking a weak PUT wall. The lack of deep PUT dominance signals limited downside hedging pressure. * IVR: 8.9 (low), IVx avg: 13.8 * Options Flow Sentiment: 24.1% PUTs * GEX Bias: Mildly bullish unless 623 fails Options Strategy Suggestions: * If price breaks and holds above 626.5, consider buying CALL spreads (e.g., 626c/630c) targeting a gamma squeeze into 628+. * If 623 breaks, look for short-dated PUT spreads (e.g., 623p/620p) targeting a fade back into 620 or even 617. 1-Hour Chart Price Action Analysis: SPY has reclaimed a bullish posture after the CHoCH (Change of Character) on July 8 and is pushing into a supply zone just beneath the prior swing high. The price structure now forms a clean ascending channel, supported by higher lows and rising demand. * Support Zones: 622.00, 620.34 * Resistance Levels: 624.72, 626.27 * BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed earlier, adding bullish confluence Watch for a breakout above the current supply zone to continue momentum toward 628+. However, failure to break and a rejection near 625 could lead to a retest of 620–622 as the next demand zone. Trading Outlook for Thursday: * Bullish Case: Break and close above 626 opens the door to a squeeze into 628+. Use pullbacks to 623–624.2 as entry zones. * Bearish Case: Rejection at current levels with a breakdown below 622.5 could pull SPY into the 620.3 and possibly 617.9 levels. * Scalp Setup: Long above 625 with tight stop below 623. Short below 622.5 targeting 620, risk above 624. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own plan.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Global Banks Profit from Tariff Volatility Major banks like JPMorgan, BofA, and Citigroup are expected to see ~10% growth in trading revenue in Q2, fueled by volatility from President Trump’s tariff policy shifts. Treasury trading volumes hit record highs as markets priced in policy swings 📈 S&P 500 Nears Lull Amid Bull Market Strains Despite record highs in 2025, investors are warning that the rally may be reaching its limit. Bullish sentiment is strong, but analysts caution that sluggish consumer spending, rising inflation from tariffs, and few rate-cut signals from the Fed could cap downside momentum 🐻 Bear Case Gains Ground Stifel’s Barry Bannister projected a potential ~12% correction in the second half of 2025. Key risks include slowing consumer spending, weak capital investment under tariff uncertainty, and persistent core inflation above 3%, negatively impacting earnings and growth outlooks ⚖️ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Could Add Trillions in Debt The new fiscal package signed July 4 will add $3–4 trillion to national debt over the next decade while extending tax cuts and revising EV incentives. Bond market and Fed policy implications may become more pronounced if growth fails to keep pace 📊 Stocks vs Bonds: Diverging Signals While equities climb and megacaps extend gains, Treasury yields have risen five days straight—signaling growing caution over real growth prospects. The yield curve steepening hints at mixed signals: growth optimism in stocks, but bond market signaling economic risk ahead 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Thursday, July 10: No major scheduled economic releases. Markets remain driven by tariff headlines, bank earnings reactions, and evolving Fed signals. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #marketvolatility #tariffs #banks #Fed #debt #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits ⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy 🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs 📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 16: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1% 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June) Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health Jensen Huang in Beijing Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors ⚠️ Disclaimer: This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao