SPY WEEKLY 12 MAY 2025Welcome to Spy weekly. I have tried my best to explain the price action here. If you have any doubts, feel free to leave a comment or DM me.
NOTESTAY AWAY FROM OPTIONS
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 4-12 : Rally In CountertrendIn today's video, I try to highlight the TREND features in the SPY CYcle Pattern data window for all of you to use.
Yesterday, I received a comment from a friend/client asking about the strength in the markets compared to my expectations.
My answer was simple. The SPY Cycle Pattern data window shows Short-Term (ST), Long-Term (LT) trending as well as the Daily/Weekly Bias trends.
Traders should use these to determine the primary trend/direction of price action.
Additionally, I try to add my own thoughts/context related to the market setup/structure. That is where I teach you about the EPP/Cradle patterns and more.
Ideally, my analysis and the SPY Cycle Patterns align with the future price moves in a way that everyone can profit from the highest probability outcomes.
There are times when news or outside forces drive the market trend beyond my expectations and, in some cases, beyond the SPY Cycle Pattern predictions. This recent Trump-Pump rally may be one of those cases.
Either way, I continue to try to deliver the best technical analysis and research I can offer for followers.
Get some.
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SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching:
🟩 Support zones
📉 Resistance levels
🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour
🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts
📌 Important notes
⚠️ My current bias
Let’s jump in:
🟩 Support Zones:
Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly.
Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job.
📉 Resistance
SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time.
🕯️ Weekly Candle Context
That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top.
🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things
There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance.
But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech.
So the big question is:
Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy?
That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions.
📌 Things I’m Watching:
A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias.
If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507.
⚠️ Current Bias
Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle.
The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance.
Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-8 : Carryover PatternToday's Pattern is a Carryover pattern in Carryover mode.
After yesterday's FOMC news (unchanged), the markets are seeking a bit of direction. Bitcoin rallied and INVALIDATED a EPP Flagging pattern. In my opinion this suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to move a bit higher after the Fed decision.
Although, I still believe the global markets are reacting to uncertainty and tariff news within a very broad consolidation range. So, I'm cautious of trying to go ALL-IN on any long trades at the moment.
Until we break clear of the consolidation range, price could break strongly to the downside on news or geopolitical content. In reality, any type of big news could prompt a downward price move within an uptrend or a consolidation range.
It just seems as though the current global market environment is fraught with uncertainty - so I continue to stay cautious.
Gold and Silver pulled downward overnight. But I still believe metals will continue to rally - attempting to hedge against global risks.
With Bitcoin rallying a bit higher (still in consolidation) - let's see how the next few days play out.
I would be surprised if BTCUSD and the SPY rallied to new highs before the end of May. VERY SURPRISED given the status of the global markets.
But, the markets can stay completely irrational much longer than I can try to fight them. So we have to move WITH the markets - not against them.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-13 : Rally 111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests we will see continued upward price trending in the SPY/QQQ (and possibly BTCUSD).
I believe the continued positive news/announcements by the Trump administration is adding fuel for the current rally phase in the US markets. It is hard to ignore his tactics (like them or hate them). He is able to get things done in a way that many believe is disruptive.
Still, from what I'm hearing, the Chinese trade deal is a very broad and advantageous deal that somewhat "resets" the disparity the US has experienced for the past 20+ years with China. Overall, that is a very positive advancement in global trade.
Now, we'll have to see how the markets react to this news and is the hype is as good as the final trade deal.
Overall, the US markets are still climbing up the current FLAGGING formation (still BULLISH).
I see another Island (GAP) type of price move, which may prompt some consolidation - we'll see how things play out.
Gold and Silver are setting up double/triple bottoms across support.
BTCUSD is rallying higher within a similar FLAG formation to the SPY/QQQ.
In my mind, the markets are back to nearly where they were prior to the tariffs and early breakdown in late-February 2025. This is the "make or break" time for the markets.
Either the SPY continues higher and attempts to break above resistance - or it will start to fail over the next 5-10+ days and break downward.
Buckle up... and GET SOME.
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$SPY still bearish unless $584 and trendline break as resistanceI'll be the first to admit that the rally has gone further than I expected. That said, everything on the chart still looks like this is a bearish rally and not a new bull trend.
Unless we can break the blue trend line and the strong overhead resistance between $581.63 and $583.57, I think the most likely scenario is we fall further and see one last leg down before we bottom.
I think the bottom will come between the lower supports at $409 and $538.
Again, invalidation of the bearish idea is a break and flip of the resistances above, the upside targets are on the chart as well.
Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-7 : Post FOMC UpdateThis video highlights a number of factors why I believe the markets are stalling and are likely to REVERT back to the 515-525 area on the SPY.
Without any real economic driving component, while tariffs and other concerns continue to play out, I believe the SPY will continue to search for Ultimate Support over the next 5-7+ months, then move into an upward reversion phase.
Part of what I'm trying to teach my followers is to try to understand how price operates in structures and phases.
Price only does two things: TRENDS or FLAGS
Within those phases, price structures (EPP, Cradle, and others) take over to determine how and why price may or may not attempt to make certain price moves.
Additionally, without any bias, or economic impetus (driver), price tends to REVERT.
In this video, I show you how to use the STDDEV channels to identify possible target areas for the different phases of market trend.
Ultimately, IMO, trading is about being able to see the price structure, phases, and path of least resistance (in terms of bias/expectations). This helps us position for the highest probability outcome (and hopefully for successful trades).
Remember, all of these techniques can be applied to intra-day charts the same way I'm applying them to Daily and Weekly charts.
Remember, price only does two things: TREND or FLAG.
Once you understand that, applying price structures/phases to price while it TRENDS or FLAGS helps you to gain a keen understanding of where price may target/move in the immediate future.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
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Drop to 571 in the cards for tomorrowMarkets are way too over extended. A correction sub 580 to wipe out over confident bulls can be expected tomorrow.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Finding Confirmation & MoreThis video will become the start of more advanced training videos to help all of you understand how to use your own skills/tools/resources to try to find the best opportunities.
As I state in the video, I will never tell you what to trade. EVER!
It is unethical and illegal. I'm not a broker or financial advisor.
I'm a software developer/trader and I like to try to unlock the secrets of the markets using price action and inference models (and more).
This video teaches you how to use my CRASH INDEX and the SuperTrend indicator as a way to develop better allocation and risk protection skills for your own trading.
Let's face it - trading is about developing a process to consistently GET PROFITS. It doesn't really matter if they are 10%, 20%, 30% or more. If you are able to consistently execute good trades and PULL PROFITS - you will grow your account- right?
So stop swinging for the fences. Learn to develop skills that keep you on the right side of these big trends.
It's not that hard.
In this video I try to teach you to use Daily, Weekly, 240 min, 120 min, 60 min, 10 min, and 5 min data using my Crash Index to help you learn to trade the SPY/QQQ.
The Crash Index is suited for the SPY/QQQ in most cases. There are instances where the Crash Index may reflect some type of counter-trend - so remember to use Fibonacci Price Theory on the underlying symbol (SPY or QQQ) as final confirmation.
And, remember to try to understand primary trending (longer-term trending) vs. short-term trending. If you are going to try to trade a "counter-trend" swing - cut your trade allocation down by 50-60% (or more). Counter-trend swings are usually going against the major/primary trend.
Anyway, watch this video once or twice. I hope it helps all of you understand and build your own skills to trade more efficiently.
The trick is to get it down to a process where you know how to allocate your capital and you know how to confirm/invalidate trade setups/triggers.
Once you get to that point - you turn into a trading machine. The only step of the process that is really difficult to handle/manage is the BOOK IT phase. If you book your profits early - you may feel bad about leaving profits out there you could have had. But, a PROFIT is a PROFIT.
And the goal of trading it to PROFIT more than you LOSE - right?
Get some.
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SPY: Short Signal Explained
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 564.32
Stop Loss - 575.90
Take Profit - 539.83
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
$SPY May 14, 2025AMEX:SPY May 14, 2025
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY crossed 586 and made a high 589 levels.
Oscillator divergence.
Too far away from moving averages in 15 minutes.
So, a pull bac to 580 is on cards.
We have seen this setup many times.
Working in our favor.
I don't see any different this time too.
COULD THIS STOCK MARKET BULL CYCLE END BY SEPTEMBER 2025?In this video, we look at AMEX:SPY on the weekly and monthly charts to determine how much longer can this current 2023-2025 bull run can last
MAJOR TURN NEW UPSIDE IN ELLIOT WAVE 6350 target I have moved from a Bear to a BULL based on the the alt wave count at 4835 support I will pull 4835 as minor and major wave 4 of the 5th wave I can count it three ways and once we break above 5945/6010 I get min targets of the old high at 6147 at that point it will mark Ax 1.618 or wave 1 x .1618 both reach 6147 That should be seen as an issue But if we break above 6180 I will get a target of 6250 and a second target of 6351 see chart for projection . I have covered shorts from 5799 here at 5903 and moved to a net long at 100 % I will add to a 125 % long on a buy stop at 6010 . Best of trades WAVETIMER
$SPY May 13, 2025AMEX:SPY May 13, 2025
15 Minutes.
Holding 574 levels uptrend continues towards 586 initially.
600 is a possibility by next week expiry.
If 575 is broken, then 570 should provide a strong support.
SPY Broke The Sine-Wave Center - Not GoodWe see the 3 tiny arrows—proof that price was rejected by those who knew.
The Trend Barrier, once solid support, cracked without resistance. Price dropped right back into the Medianline set.
The small pullback? Totally expected—just like the Medianline rules suggest. Then came the brutal drop, textbook-style, straight to the Centerline.
The springboard move back up to the U-MLH and the Trend Barrier? No surprise—if you understand the Medianline Framework. Because this is just P2.
Also—watch the white line. That’s what I call the Sine Wave. Why does it matter? Because the center point (where the red pullback arrow is) often gets breached in a fake move... right before price reverses hard. From P2: down, down, down... lower than P1.
AND THAT SHOULD SCARE THE HELL OUT OF YOU!
…if I’m right 😈
But if it fails?
Then we’re looking at a monstrous V-shape recovery—one that could send the indexes skyrocketing.
So there you have it.
What’s your direction?
Let me know—and tell me why! §8-)
SPY: Where to next? These are just my thoughts and opinions, not advice.
I forgot to mention in the video, Monday has a bearish forecast. If you pay attention to the Weekly forecast I share in the video, this is more similar to the bullish path (selling into Monday). :-O.
Bit of a longer video because lots to talk about.
Safe trades everyone!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-14 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to stay somewhat elevated. The Carryover pattern is essentially a pattern saying, "expect more of the same type of trending today".
I would suggest the SPY/QQQ are somewhat extended and may pause a bit today.
I shared a chart I created back on March 23, 2025 that I found very interesting - showing a big rally in late-April/early-May. If that chart continues to be accurate - it suggests the markets may attempt a reversion move to the downside over the next 20-30+ days.
Time will tell if my predictions play out accurately or not.
Gold is moving into new BEARISH trending on the GOLD Cycle Patterns. After an extended consolidation phase in metals, this shift in the trend models was going to happen at some point.
Now, we need to see if Gold/Silver can hold above recent support or not. Even though I believe Gold/Silver are poised for another big rally, the disruptions related to the global economy and tariffs seems to have taken some of wind out of the sails of the metals rally (for now).
Bitcoin continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Keep an eye on what BTCUSD does over the next 7-15+ days as I believe it will lead the US markets in trending (still).
Get some.
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Spy $550 This WeekUpdated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563)
Scenario Projected Close Range Probability
Bull Case $570 – $577 40%
Base Case $558 – $566 45%
Bear Case $545 – $555 15%
🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577)
Conditions:
CPI data comes in cool (Thursday)
PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher
Fed speakers lean dovish
Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher
SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance
Fuel:
Short gamma squeeze above $565
Call wall shift to $570/$575
Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary
⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566)
Conditions:
CPI is in-line
Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses)
Market digests prior rally, stays elevated
No breakout — just holding range
Behavior:
SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP
Buyers hesitate near $565–$567
Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought
🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555)
Conditions:
CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall
Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide)
Yields spike, market pulls back fast
SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548
Fuel:
IV spike → volatility unwind
Bond market pressure → liquidity stress
Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP)
🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch):
CPI – Thursday, May 9
10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI
Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday)
Options flow around $565, $570 strikes
Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
S&P500 room for growth?If you compare S&P500 trend from 2025 with previous years, you might either see two things:
Room for growth. In that scenario, later in the year we might see again see some upwards trend again. Instead of the current more or less flat line. Similar t o the year 2020.
Or you could compare this year with recession of some sort like the year 2022. Where we would end up in an overall loss of this year.
China could potentially escalate a war between India & Pakistan.
But I'm a bit more optimistic now. I hope they will rather now have a trade deal with the US instead of a war. Easing the tension of the trading wars. Putting this whole context together, we might actually see a small plus (like 8-10%) YoY for 2025. Or even a solid 15-20%?
What do you think?
See:
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-8 : EPP & Cradle Pattern UpdateThis video highlights why I continue to stay very cautious of this upward price move in the US markets.
It also highlights that the current trend is BULLISH - not BEARISH. When I post the videos in the morning, I've been selecting BEARISH as the general trend because I believe the markets are going to roll over into a breakdown phase. Until that happens, though, the markets are in a BULLISH price trend - attempting to possibly break above the current Ultimate High.
This is more of an instructional video - trying to show you why I continue to urge caution related to trends and why I belive we may have many months to go before the US markets really start to make a bigger "exit trend" type of move (exiting this broad consolidation range).
The other thing this video should teach you is how to identify EPP and Cradle patterns more efficiently and how to use them.
Ultimately, everything I share with all of you is designed to help you understand price as the ultimate indicator.
If you can grasp these concepts and understand how each phase of price structure presents opportunities, then you should be able to time and execute your trades very efficiently.
As I've stated in the videos, because of family medical issues over the past 60+ days, I've moved away from daytrading and gone back to a 2-5+ week swing trading style.
Simply put, I'm driving all over the place taking care of my family, seeing doctors, and other stuff - so I can't stare at my PC/Phone while the markets are open.
I'm also taking very low risk trades. If I decide to get into a trade, I'm usually avoiding the SPY/QQQ and selecting some SPDR sector (or other ETF) that allows me to play the move I expect without risking a fortune doing it.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy this video. I'll probably create one more after this video posts.
Get some.
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$SPY Its time according to my chart.. Lower high is the trigger I posted two charts for reference to the current situation. With a historic rally right into resistance and a fractal analog that matches, I have no choice but to remain bearish. These are my studies. Sometimes Impatience leads to things like Impulsive Entries and Exits, Revenge Trading, and at times, even Blown Accounts. Times like those should be followed by a regroup and a reset.
The 9 Count Sell Signal Triggered with a Reset is on Technical Inidators for a move lower. I do believe we are going to consolidate for several days but nothing further than the second week of May. Today Bulls got extremely bullish and still were not able to hold the highs into the close. The test of the 200 day SMA was rejected and several days near these leveles whether above or below, would prove the downside move more possible. The monthly on SPX is my biggest indicator, personally. If it follows the pattern I'm following then after a test of the 10WMA, we will roll back over on the next 10 day candle. The market ran through a death cross without stopping, which if anyone were to study for several minutes, they would be able to see any first attempt at a death cross to the upsde is almost immediately met with a selloff back to the lows of the breakout move. Good luck everybody.
The Best Analysis in the World...You might be shocked by the accuracy of this analysis — so much so that you won’t even know what to do next. Because yes, you could be just one step away from becoming a millionaire... and missing that moment is painful.
But don’t worry — I’m here, and I won’t let that happen.
This legendary setup is called The Golden Lizard, and trust me, it’s not here to play games. Don’t underestimate it. Please, stay calm... and don’t faint. 💥🦎💰
