SPY WEEKLY 24 FEB 2025Welcome to SPY Weekly. I have clearly explained the price action & momentum in this analysis.
If you have any doubts feel free to ask.
NOTE:DO NOT BLINDLY FOLLOW ANYONE
SPY trade ideas
SPY: Short and Long Term OutlookSorry, Its a long idea because I am covering the weekly outlook and annual update.
I wanted to branch off into QQQ but it was too long so I just cut it haha. I will do other ideas over the weekend for probably QQQ and NVDA.
Thanks for watching!
Safe trades everyone!
$SPY February 27, 2025AMEX:SPY February 27, 2025
60 Minutes.
The move to 598-599 and a retrace to 592-594 levels was completed yesterday.
Now for the fall 613.23 to 589.56 i expect a retracement around 598-600 levels being 38.2 and 50 percent retracement moves.
At the moment is trend is down.
Uptrend only above 608 levels.
601-604 levels should be a good level to short again.
In 60 minutes, we have 50,100,200 averages converging around 603-604 levels which is the next area of resistance.
Spy 585 closing Monthly is on point and accurateSpy 585 My bot has been predicting the monthly close price for the past 2 weeks when price was at 607 lol
Spy bot is super genuise 😆 spy is 587 right now I love my bot
📈 SPY Monthly Close Prediction 🔮
--------------------------------
🔹 Predicted Monthly Close on 2025-02-28: $584.04
🔹 Current Price: $594.54
🔹 Max Pain Strike: $490.00
🔹 Expiration Date: 2025-02-28
🔸 Top Option by Open Interest:
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: 470.0
- Open Interest: 153611
--------------------------------
🔹 Timestamp: 2025-02-26 | 08:16 PM EST
🔹 Short-Term Prediction (Next 24 Hours): $593.96
🔻 SPY 15-Minute Opening Range Breakout (DOWN) 📉
🔹 Breakout Price: 594.54
🔹 Opening Range Low: 597.31
🔹 Time: 2025-02-26 | 08:16 PM PST
🔻 SPY 30-Minute Opening Range Breakout (DOWN) 📉
🔹 Breakout Price: 594.54
🔹 Opening Range Low: 596.56
🔹 Time: 2025-02-26 | 08:16 PM PST
⚠️ No significant overnight gap detected.
We may be entering a short term bear market stay tuned for more updates
JoeWtrades: The Case for a Blow-Off Top Before a Market Crash & How It Could Be Reversed
February 19
Show more
The stock market may be entering a blow-off top phase—a parabolic surge in asset prices driven by excessive liquidity, speculative euphoria, and momentum-chasing behavior—before experiencing a significant correction or crash. Historically, similar conditions preceded the 1929 Great Depression, the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, and the 2021 Post-COVID Rally, where rapid price expansions fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out) led to unsustainable valuations before collapsing.
$SPY I know this is crazy, but $576 is my number, Call me maybe?$576 Gap fill on the way? Time will tell that's for sure. My expecation is that we sell into the beginning of March Covid style in a way. $576 seems good for right now. Will update as we go.
SPY: A bit of a mixed bagSPY, anything less than a Dumpster Fire would be an understatement.
I go over my general thoughts as I have interpreted them from probability metrics. However, owning to the incredible prolonged ranginess post 2-years of continuous, non-stop upside, my traditional approaches to probability modelling are a bit shook and confused. This leads me to not a lot of confidence in what to expect in the longer term; however, confident about the shorter term outlook.
Here are the key take aways of my analysis that are based in the objective data:
SPY is expecting a -1.94% decline into the week (approximately 2%). This can come before upside, or can come after upside, but the expectation is that SPY falls roughly 2% at some point this week. This is calculated from SPY's open price on Monday. So if SPY opens at 594, we would subtract 1.94% from 594 or:
594 - (594 * 0.0194) = 582.48
We should be retracing the 591 range into Monday.
The target probability is bullish, with an expected upside target of around 600.
The best fit bearish target is 588 on the week.
We retain huge resistance at 597 that has provided significant resistance 20% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain substantial resistance at 607, which has provided significant resistance 40% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain ultimate resistance at 612, which has provided significant resistance 100% of the time.
Thanks for watching!
ONCE IN A LIFETIME Fibonacci HARMONICSTarget 608 🎯
Bulls Defended the KEY 618 Fibonacci with 4 red candles in a row
HIGH chance of a bounce back day! I am RISKING 11k and will alert all here drop a LIKE IF U WANT IT!
$SPY February 25, 2025AMEX:SPY February 25, 2025
15 Minutes
As expected, AMEX:SPY retraced and fell back. Took support at 596 levels.
592 is downside target for the extension 610.70 to 596.48 to9.47 to 603.02.
For the fall 603.02 to 596.48 AMEX:SPY retraced 78% to around 601 levels. And made nearly double bottom around 596 levels.
At the moment upside is limited to 603 levels being 20 averages in 5 minutes.
Trend is down until 610 is taken out.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 28, 2025Here are the key support and resistance levels for SPY today, indicating potential reversal or consolidation points. A bounce off these levels may signal long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
These levels are calculated using mathematical models relevant for today's trading session. They may change in the future.
If you find this helpful and want daily insights at 9:30 AM, please boost this post and follow me. Your engagement supports continued updates. Thank you!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-27: Weekday FLUSH PatternToday's Weekday FLUSH pattern is similar to a CRUSH pattern. It usually represents a very wide-range price bar with the potential for a big breakdown or breakaway type of price action.
Given yesterday's fairly wide price action and the NVDA earnings last night - I would not be surprised to see quite a bit of profit-taking in early trading, leading to an initial downward price trend, then moving into a basing/bottoming phase after 12-1PM ET.
In other words, a fairly large DIP/Sell-off leading to a base/bottom, then flipping bullish through the end of the day today.
Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ will continue to try to push higher in the Excess Phase Peak pattern - reaching a peak between March 5-10 (only about 5-7+ trading days away).
Thus, we don't have a big rally ahead of us - only about 3-5+ days of a fairly strong rally over the next 5-10 trading days.
Now that the selling pressure has abated, metals should be forming a base or bottom. Get ready for an explosive move higher.
BTCUSD has broken downward and is not in the larger consolidation phase. This phase will likely continue for at least 2+ weeks before we attempt to move into the search for the Ultimate Low (likely below $75k).
Buckle up. Things are about to get very interesting.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
SPY
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy SPY
Entry - 594.00
Stop - 589.10
Take - 602.57
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY: 1000 day ema, the value investors friend.The sp500 has touched and held many times at the 1000 day exponential moving average, and it coincides with the average 15-16 price to earnings ratio of the sp500.
While the 200 day moving average is more widely followed, the 1000 day is significant once the 200 day is breached. The 1000 day is also known as the 200 week moving average.
For value investors, the charts alone dont give the full story. And using moving averages alone is not enough to fully judge value. But I have found that using the 1000 day ema as a quick test has helped find many fantastic buying opportunities, after doing further homework of course.
I am not recommending shorts or saying we will sell off hard. I do say that If it was at the 1000 ema, I would be more interest in going long and with more conviction. What we are seeing now is closer to the beginning of market taking profits than to a significant entry point.
As shown, the sp500 Earnings yield is very wimpy, in the 3% range. No wonder Warren Buffett at Berkshire keeps raising cash. We would be wise to track Earnings yields and wait for better opportunities, which should correlate with the 1000 day ema, in my opinion.
Market about to RIP FACES OFF!AMEX:SPY SP:SPX : Contrarian Take!
Market about to RIP FACES OFF! 🚀
$631 Inbound! 🎯
Same outcome different reason since Sept.
Not financial advice
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFTStock Market Forecast | QQQ, SPY, AMEX:XLV , AMEX:XLF
Mag 7 Forecast | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFT
State of the MarketSPY has been in an uptrend since October 2023. Support has always held on a weekly level. Should it fail to close in the channel on the weekly, then we may see a correction 9%-13%. Should it hold, we can target an additional 12%-18% upside. We will see how it unfolds.
A gap that was never filledLet me preface this discussion with the fact that I'm a beginner and this might have already got hashed out. Historically gaps in the charts almost always get filled. Back in November of 2023 on the 13th to the 14th the price jumped and created a small but noticeable gap, this gap has not yet been filled by the price action. Id like to hear opinions on what you guys think might happen with our current price action. Will we see a massive drop in the S&P back down to fill this gap or has inflation essentially nullified this gap?
$SPY: Big picture on three time framesThe AMEX:SPY sell-off this week might be scary, and here we want to go back to the old-fashioned three-time frame concept. It works as a good road navigation. Additionally, I added the data from www.aaii.com to show how bearish sentiment prevails now to give us a short-term hope. The bearish sentiment at its extreme zone (twice higher vs average) gives a clue that the local bottom is near, and not acting as a trading signal
On the charts, we see AMEX:SPY on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis.
More noise is on a daily basis, so I want to keep an eye on the weeklies to help choose the strategy, even for intraday trading. A monthly time frame helps to add gears of consciousness (ATH, 3 bar swing formed).
Blue lines form the channel, which is the Keltner Channel. It shows the tunnel of extremes as well. This means that if we reach the lower band, we may dance there for a while, and then it will bounce.
Hypothetically, if we enter the bearish market, we need to see the lower low and the lower highs at least on the weeklies. For me it will tell that all bounces will be shorter (~ Fib. 0.382) and sharper, and I will adjust my expectations.
Coming back to the current situation on weeklies, I see we are on a bullish trend. On dailies, obviously in a downtrend and near its local bottom. We closed the old gap, so the next potential magnet is ~575-ish support. To confirm a bounce start we want to see at least 3 bar reversal, a ka lower low formed and follow through. The sentiment brightness might be sticky, so no promises.
Stay profitable!
Cheers!
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 📈: President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed on March 4, 2025. This decision may impact trade relations and market dynamics.
🇰🇷💰 Bank of Korea Rate Cut 💰: The Bank of Korea is expected to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25, aiming to support economic growth amid recent slowdowns.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, Feb 25:
🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, offering insights into the housing market trends.
📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.1 from January's 104.1, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
On The Maco Level SPY is screaming a crash is comingAMEX:SPY is basically at every metric for being over-extended. From the Shiller PE ratio surpassing the all time highs to the buffet indicator at al time highs, take your pick, they all say the same thing. The Chart's trend is dying and the sell offs have been the initial weakness warning signs that retail traders are missing big time rn. Smart money is clearly selling the farm rn and the volume data on the chart backs it up. SPY is a clear sell in imo.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-25-25: Rally PatternToday's Rally pattern will likely prompt a fairly strong recovery (upward) price move in the SPY before the markets turn/rollover and head lower again after reaching a top.
I see this move paired with the Metals cycle patterns, which suggest metals will move downward. I believe this will be the result of stronger USD price levels, which will translate into an initial SPY rally phase (driving the price higher) and then rolling over into more selling.
Ultimately, I believe the lows on Wednesday or Thursday will be the immediate base/bottom for this breakdown phase (near 587-593).
I'm not getting overly aggressive related to today's RALLY pattern.
I don't believe the markets have the momentum to rally very hard today and I believe we'll see a ROLLOVER type of move today - resulting in more downward selling.
BTCUSD is usually tied to the QQQ/NQ related to price action and the breakdown of BTCUSD may put additional pressure on the QQQ/NQ today.
So, get ready for a pretty volatile day. My estimate is price will ROLL DOWNWARD after a moderately strong open. Then, get ready for some volatility.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-26-25 : Rally In Counter TrendToday's Rally in counter-trend mode aligns with the current breakdown as a strong possibility of a Rally (Upward) type of trend.
After yesterday's deep low and moderate recovery near the end of the day, I suspect the SPY is setting up another Excess Phase Peak base - transitioning into the upward Flagging formation.
Because of this, I suspect today's Rally pattern will result in a moderate Melt-Up type of price action in the SPY/QQQ.
It may also prompt metals to rally off yesterday's lows as the Panic selling mode ends.
BTCUSD I still seeking a new low and trying to find the consolidation phase. I believe BTCUSD could fall further before finding support.
This is going to be a very interesting ROLL of price related to the SPY/QQQ, Gold and Silver, while Bitcoin continues to try to identify lower support.
Almost like a "disconnect" is taking place.
Ultimately, I think we'll see a peak between March 5-12 in the SPY/QQQ - rolling downward into the March 21-24 Major Bottom.
Get some today.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Ready for Impulsive or Ending Diagonal?This 5th wave isn't feeling impulsive at all and if anything is indicating bearish RSI divergence. For these reasons, I feel that wave 5 is in what we call an ENDING DIAGONAL. Ending diagonals are really tricky to trade, as they have a series of overlapping movements. Price struggles to move higher, indicating exhaustion. Will still get a move to the 630 to 670 area, but if trying to trade it, the ups and downs vs impulsive behaviors make this tough to trade. After completion, there is typically a deeper correction, and since I am expecting a larger wave 4, this feels correct as well.
Now there is always a chance we haven't finished the prior larger wave 4 and we are either in a running or expanded flat, but will need to see a bit more to understand that scenario. Running flat would reverse soon and then impulsively higher vs expanded will undercut 574 and then rip higher (show on chart with green impulsive waves).
Elliot wave is so much easier to understand once the waves are completed vs speculating where they are going next!
