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SPY trade ideas
Stepping back and looking at the big pictureOverview of the SPY price expansionary and retracement periods.
SPY On The Rise! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 590.89
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 598.49
My Stop Loss - 586.83
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY correction incoming? Back below $550AMEX:SPY is putting in a short term top here.
All of the signs are there if you know what to look at. For example, NASDAQ:TLT up 2% today. AMEX:SPY sold off throughout the day. Crypto selling off. Volatility starting to react at the bottom of the range. Dollar continuing to rise.
The chart also is failing at resistance.
I could see one more attempt at a move higher, and if we fail at $602 or lower and fall back below $597, it'll be extremely bearish and the confidence in this move playing out strengthens.
I think we'll see $527-531 over the next couple of weeks. Playing the move through CBOE:UVXY calls.
Why not?See the pattern? SPY closed within the ascending channel. We might see a green weekly candle next week.
S&P 500 Reached The Top - Correction UnderwayThe S&P 500 looks to have reached a significant top - being rejected from the 1:1 Fibonacci extension on the Weekly Timeframe.
With other confluence like the rising wedge, high weekly RSI levels, and a decreasing momentum on the MACD, all things point downwards for the stock market in 2025.
The next target would be the blue zone where a potential chance for reversal could occur.
A top in the S&P 500 could also signal tops forming on major stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , etc. so keep a lookout.
SPY Technical Analysis PredictionThis chart is a daily timeframe for SPY (S&P 500 ETF), displaying multiple indicators such as pivot points, dark pool levels, trendlines, moving averages, and volume. The current market structure suggests a potential trend transition phase, with price currently consolidating near critical support levels.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The long-term uptrend is still intact, supported by the green ascending trendline originating from prior lows.
The recent pullback breached the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, which implies short-term bearish momentum. However, price is consolidating near the S1 pivot level (579.18), suggesting possible support.
Higher Highs (HH) were achieved earlier in the trend, but the failure to maintain levels near the R1 pivot (614.64) indicates resistance and profit-taking.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Zones:
600-604: A psychological resistance level and the approximate region of the 8 EMA.
609.07: The previous swing high and a critical level for a bullish continuation.
R1 (614.64): A strong pivot resistance level.
Support Zones:
Immediate support at S1 (579.18), which aligns with current consolidation.
Lower supports are seen at S2 (555.80), S3 (543.72), and the ascending green trendline (~524).
Dark pool levels between 513.20 - 522.91 represent critical institutional zones, which may act as strong support.
3. Volume Profile:
Significant volume spike on the most recent red candle indicates institutional activity.
If price remains above key supports (S1, S2), this could suggest accumulation. A breakdown below S1 would imply further distribution and downside.
4. Dark Pool Levels:
Dark pool prints at 522.91, 518.92, and 513.20 mark critical price levels for institutional interest. A break into these levels would indicate bearish momentum but could offer significant buying opportunities near those zones.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A strong bounce off S1 with price reclaiming the 8 EMA (currently near 600) would confirm bullish momentum.
Profit Targets:
595-600: The immediate resistance zone and EMA alignment.
609.07: The swing high from earlier in December.
614.64 (R1): A longer-term target at the pivot resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 575, as this invalidates the bullish setup.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A break below S1 with high volume and price failing to reclaim the 8 EMA would confirm bearish continuation.
Profit Targets:
565.16: The prior swing low and intermediate support.
555.80 (S2): A strong pivot support level.
543.72 (S3): A deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 595, as it would indicate a reversal back above resistance.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Dark Pool Levels
If price falls into the dark pool zones (522.91-513.20), this could offer significant long-term buying opportunities, especially near the ascending green trendline (~524).
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 requires close monitoring for either a bullish reversal or a bearish breakdown. Volume and price action at the EMAs and pivot levels will be crucial indicators.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels represent strong support zones, offering potential for accumulation if prices drop further.
Thank You, TradingView Community!I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to everyone in this incredible community. The opportunity to share my Technical Analysis (TA) and connect with so many of you has been an amazing journey.
I’m truly humbled by the kindness and appreciation I’ve received. Many of you who have achieved significant wins have even sent me thoughtful gifts as a token of thanks, while others who are still on the path to recovery have reached out to share their gratitude as well. Your support means more to me than words can express and motivates me to keep contributing and improving in the coming year.
Whether you’re celebrating victories or working toward a brighter trading future, I’m here to support you every step of the way. Let’s make 2025 a year filled with growth, learning, and success!
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Cheers to a bright future ahead!
See you next year!
Spy Whats Next NowWell everyone I've been calling for a 3% drop for the past 10 days and caught it lol!!!! I hope all of you that followed me crushed again and made money!!! Update to the New Narrative Trend Which the stock was Ticker QUBT I entered at $6.50 exited at $23 that I posted this week Resulting in a 4x stock move in 4 days causing some of my options plays to 10-15x insane in 2 days lol!! So What's next for Spy I Believe there will be a dead cat bounce resulting in a price to hit a target of 595-600 this year!!! I believe QQQ SPY both topped out for this year!!! So I Will be investing in The number 1 stock for 2025 resulting in a safe 10x trade by March content out now Good Luck Traders!!!
SPY will drop ... until Christmas, Part 2In my last chart I didn't account for the market trading sideways before heading downward so I have decided to do another chart.
There is a FED meeting this week. I suspect on the day of the announcement on Wednesday, Dec 18, the SPY will be more volatile like it has been on the last few announcements from the FED. Then on Thursday and Friday following the announcement, the SPY will continue to go lower (regardless of what the Fed states) stopping before Christmas. I trade based on what the charts indicate not on current events. The charts will often account for future events.
If you look at the weekly charts, it is also indicating a downward trend.I will try to post a weekly chart to this idea so you can see what I am talking about.
I have marked where I think the SPY will drop to on the chart (around 584)
This is just a short term downward trend. I believe on Thursday and Friday, the SPY will drop about 9 points each day and on Monday and Tuesday it will drop a little or trade sideways. After Christmas, I believe the SPY will go back up. But I will draw another chart showing what I believe will happen after Christmas.
If you look at the previous months, after an upward trend of about 10 to 14 days, the market retraced for a few more days. The SPY could retrace to any point on the Fibonacci numbers. But I just believe it will drop for 3-4 days (like it did in the previous months) to a 100% drop before continuing it's climb upward.
I am using the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as I find you can see a definite directional pattern with them on the chart itself. Typically, I will just trade with the dominant trend and I will wait for 2 green Heikin Ashi Candlesticks before I enter. But this time I am showing the brief retracement that will happen before Christmas. I will probably enter this short trade briefly to make a little money.
Happy trading everyone!
SpyIts looking like 566 will come ..
I talked about this sell on Dow,NYA and Iwm in my spy post (See link).. its happening.. once QQQ breaks below 514 spy will target 575 20sma and it may dead cat bounce but the full target is 566... All you have to do is watch QQQ , once 514 goes, its Good night.. I wont go into the technicals because you can go over my previous post on Spy and QQQ and see every thing is playing... If qqq doesnt break 514 then no sell.
And for those wondering about a christmas rally , qqq went from 498 to 540 in the first 2 weeks of Dec. U got your rally!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Big Rally Closing Out 2024Over the course of the past 6+ months, I've been sharing research and content to try to help traders all over the world learn to profit by making better decisions.
Some of the comments I've received have been very positive. But some of the comments I get are negative and some people have explained how they continue to lose money trading.
In my mind, if you are gambling with your trading account - you will likely lose money.
If you are actually trading (trying to book profits ASAP) and grow your account efficiently, you can make consistent money trading small amounts.
In order to try to illustrate this example of trading, I created a $1000 trading account and limited myself to only trading $333 (MAX) per day.
Here are the rules I set for myself...
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Trading Plan
- Start with $1000 in capital
- Break that capital into 1/3 Daily limits
- Trade no more than 2-4 times a day
- Try to target 1-2 short term-trades and 1-2 intermediate-term trades each day
- Attempt to keep my losses limited (depending on market volatility)
- If I lose more than $300, I will stop trading and reevaluate what I’m doing right/wrong
The Daily Average Goal is 15-35% or more over a 30-day period of time.
I will try to execute the trades early in the morning and share the trades with Ment.com members.
I will attempt to pull the short-term trades off as early as possible (trying to lock in gains).
I will attempt to let the intermediate-term trades run a bit longer (possibly more than 1-2 days) in an effort to catch bigger price swings.
I will not attempt to chase market trends unless I see a very clear A-B-C type of price pattern.
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After just five days of trading, my account is up over $45% and I've never risked more than $250 - $300 per day trading Options.
Anyone can do this - you just need the right tools and guidance.
You can DOUBLE your $1000 trading account every 20 to 30 days if you are diligent, consistent, and really learn to trade (not Gamble).
What is it going to take for you to learn how to trade efficiently?
I'm trying to show you HOW to do it and HOW to learn the skills to improve your life.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Shopping spree done?Inflation looming, possible drone invasion, uncertainty with our very stable economy. Do I believe we are in a bull market? No... Volatility has a way of creating a bull market behaviour, but it's usually a credit fueled shopping spree. I could see the spx continue to drop till after the new years, and more. There may be a spring bounce after elections has simmered down, but I wouldn't be investing too much into it .
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-20 : GAP PotentialToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will present an opening price gap (in this case lower) and likely attempt to find support near these deep lows.
I really want to point out how my Anomaly call, nearly 45+ days ago, really played out perfectly.
It is so difficult for me to try to explain what I do with my research and analysis - but ultimately I simply call what I see based on the data.
The last few days have prompted me to really push my efforts to continue to deliver superior research and analysis for my followers and subscribers.
Ultimately, it is about helping people learn to become more profitable and learn to wait for the best trade setups.
Gold & Silver are moving into a CRUSH pattern today. This could be a BIG MOVE for metals - and I believe the move will be to the upside. Don't get married to this move yet. The bottom is still setting up for metals.
Bitcoin is collapsing through the EPP pattern. The ultimate low setup could still be a move below $90k, so be prepared for more downward trending throughout the end of 2024.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY | Catch The KnifeRSI Divergence
Significant structure to left
Invalidation around 574--trade below and will need to reconsider longs
Until then I like the long scalp
Have SPY put hedges that will close and swap for calls
SPY CORRECTION END 2024 - 2025As we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. SPY broke bullish structures in 2-hour and 4-hour timeframes, and we should recover the daily channel to maintain an upward movement in the daily timeframe.
Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, SPY rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, 4 horas y deberiamos recuperar el canal de la diaria para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de la diaria.
SPY at a Critical Juncture: Will it Reversal or More Pain Ahead?In the past two days, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has experienced a pronounced downturn, raising critical questions about the next directional move. Today's price action indicates a pivotal moment, with the market consolidating near a key support level at $584. The question remains: is this a pause before a bounce, or a precursor to further downside?
This detailed analysis breaks down SPY's current technical setup, provides actionable trade levels, and offers insights into potential scenarios for tomorrow's session. Let’s dive into the charts and indicators to uncover opportunities.
Technical Market Trend Analysis
1. Downtrend Confirmation
* Price Structure: SPY has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows over the past two sessions, clearly defining a downtrend. The breach of the critical $587 support level early in today’s session amplified selling pressure.
* Trendlines: A descending channel on the hourly chart below further confirms bearish control, with price respecting the upper boundary of the channel as resistance.
2. Volume Dynamics
* Selling Pressure: Noticeable volume spikes during the declines highlight strong participation by sellers.
* Reduced Buying Interest: Rebounds were marked by lower volume, indicating a lack of commitment from buyers.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels
1. $584: The current zone where price consolidates. This is the first line of defense for bulls.
2. $580: Major gamma exposure support level (GEX7). Breaching this level could accelerate downside momentum toward $575.
Resistance Levels
1. $587: Immediate resistance. A reclaim of this level would signal strength and could trigger short covering.
2. $590: Aligned with gamma resistance and psychological significance, this is the next target for a bullish breakout.
Indicators in Play
EMA Analysis
* The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are both sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance levels. This reinforces the short-term bearish trend.
MACD
* The hourly MACD shows bearish momentum, with a widening histogram and a negative crossover. However, a slight tapering in the histogram near the end of the session hints at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt.
Options Oscillator and GEX Insights
* Gamma Levels:
* $584: Current pivot, showing strong put positioning.
* $580: Heavy put support; any break below this would likely see rapid downside.
* $590: Significant call resistance; a breakout above would indicate a shift in sentiment.
* Sentiment: Dominance of 102.7% puts reflects bearish sentiment in the options market.
Trading Strategy
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
1. Entry: Enter long above $587 with confirmation of strong volume.
2. Target: $590 for the first target, $593 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585 to minimize risk.
4. Justification:
* Reclaiming $587 would signal a potential reversal or at least a relief rally.
* $590 aligns with gamma resistance, offering a logical profit target.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Setup
1. Entry: Short below $584 with increasing sell volume.
2. Target: $580 for the first target, $575 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585.50 to cap risk.
4. Justification:
* A breakdown below $584 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
* Heavy put support at $580 would likely provide the next pause point.
Market Outlook
While the short-term trend is bearish, the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s session will likely determine whether SPY bounces from oversold conditions or continues its descent. Watch for high-impact news and volume trends to validate directional moves.
Conclusion
SPY’s price action reflects a decisive moment. Both bulls and bears have clear opportunities depending on how the key levels at $584 and $587 play out. Use disciplined risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys,
Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share!
So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see.
So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second.
So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank.
So what is going on?
Fundamentals
The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper.
This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold.
The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation.
Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower.
This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money!
2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits.
PE ratios
I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here...
Now for the Math
If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video:
In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective.
Stage 1: Cubic Correation
This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%.
Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563.
These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs.
Stage 2: Quartic Correction
If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction.
This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away.
In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/
This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes".
Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle
In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means.
Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477.
Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle.
Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself).
So what does this mean for you the trader?
It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean.
However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means.
Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it.
Will we go lower than the cubic mean?
Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found.
How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means?
This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period.
We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean.
I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/.
So where should we be looking to buy?
If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means.
If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;).
Will it happen quicky?
The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers.
Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week.
How do we know if it will go lower?
In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up.
Summary
So kudos to you if you read this long!
Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made.
For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it.
Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants.
The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets.
Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now.
Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
$SPY December 20, 2024AMEX:SPY December 20, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected base being formed after brutal fall.
Still in downtrend as below all moving averages.
We can see oscillator divergence.
We have multiple hits around 586 levels.
If break. i see more 10$ downside towards 576 levels.
To test 100 average support 240 minutes chart.
No longs. Yet.
The markets aren't DEAD yet! Stock Market Analysis 🚨 Stock Market Analysis🚨
In this video we will be going over:
-What happened on the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
-FOMC Meeting and Chair Powell's Speech
-Economic outlook and recent numbers
-Technical Analysis
When in doubt ZOOM OUT! 👇
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again.
I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward.
Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening.
I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend.
Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now.
Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern.
$95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Should turn lower in 5 wavesSpy had an impulsive move to the downside and has bounced overnight, im looking for one more low to complete 5 waves.. Lets see
