Into the closeJust a quick overview. The market is showing strength into the close, but it's possible we see a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow.
SPY trade ideas
SPY My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 564.32
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 539.96
Safe Stop Loss - 577.94
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Beyond The Plan Your Trade Videos - Trading Algos/ConfirmationMany of you follow my morning Plan Your Trade videos - and I thank you for your loyalty and dedication.
The Plan Your Trade videos are specifically deigned to highlight my SPY/GOLD Cycle Patterns and, over the course of the past 9+ months, I've started trying to teach all of you Fibonacci Price Theory and the concept of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (and Cradle Pattern).
My goal is to teach you to learn to understand price structures, setups, and actions as a way to try to advance your technical analysis/trading skills.
There are so many others out there trying to teach you to use indicators and other types of analysis to try to identify trading opportunities/setups. Some work, some don't.
Technical analysis using Indicators, Elliot Wave, or other forms of predictive analysis/AI are only about 50-75% accurate at best (IMO). Nothing is 100% perfect.
After 35+ years of trying to unlock the secrets of price action to devise a 100% accurate trading system, the closest I have come is a system that generates about 65-75% accuracy - but still manages to take some losses.
I do believe I can find that 100% accurate system (hopefully before I die). But the reality is it is almost impossible to accurately predict price movement 10-20+ days in advance with any degree of accuracy.
Over the past few weeks/months, we've seen the SPY/QQQ move through various stages/phases.
Over the past 4+ weeks I've been warning of the broad-consolidation phase that is currently setup on the SPY/QQQ. I believe this huge consolidation range is very dangerous for traders and that extreme volatility will create lots of risk/opportunities for those capable of trading within this range.
But, at the same time, failing to take advantage of tools to help traders hedge, daytrade, or otherwise balance allocation/risk levels is something I really don't talk about much.
I like to say "I do the research - you make all the trading decisions".
This video highlights some of my advanced algos and how I use them, in conjunction with the EPP and other patterns, to try to gauge market opportunities vs. risks.
Trust me. I've learned not to GO BIG on trades over the past 20+ years because I've blown up a few accounts trying to get greedy.
Right now, I focus on trying to be on the right side of trends (if possible) and to balance my portfolio in 10-20% increments.
For example, if I believe GOLD is going to move higher, I may start out with a 5-10% allocation into GLD or UGL (start small). If that trade works and Gold starts to make a move higher, I may try to add a bit more to that initial trade. If it doesn't work out, I may try to add a little bit more at a better entry price level - but I focus on not letting that trade occupy more than 15-20% of my total portfolio.
That way, if I take a loss on the trade, it is a small loss compared to the overall account capital.
If I take a 50% loss on a 20% allocation - that is only a 10% loss on the TOTAL ACCOUNT SIZE.
Get it?
So, the reason for this video is to show you how you can still use technical strategies/indicators to try to confirm you intraday trading and swing trading opportunities. I like to use the SuperTrend strategy on charts to identify general trending.
I'm urging you to consider my Plan Your Trade videos as "one component" of your skillset. You need to use your own skills/techniques/analysis to try to manage risks vs. opportunities as you continue to trade.
I highlight some of my algos because they become another "component" of my analysis when I'm trading. If I don't see broad market capitulation related to Daily trending - then I try to stay VERY CAUTIOUS. If I do see some capitulation within my algos suggesting the markets are starting to trend upward or downward, then I may try to take advantage of that opportunity.
Ideally, the process of trading is to use everything you like and can rely on to help confirm you decision-making. Then, fall back to a efficient trade allocation process that attempts to limit your risk level.
The biggest mistake I see people make is to go ALL IN or TOO HEAVY into a trade thinking they can't lose. Yes, you can lose. So can I.
That's why it is important to contain risks and protect capital at all times.
I'll try to create another video showing you how I use the SuperTrend indicator to help confirm some of my intraday analysis for trades.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY Levels Heating Up! Is This Just a Cool-Off or a Pullback?🧊So here’s what I’m seeing on SPY after reviewing the daily, 1H, and options GEX flow. I like to keep it real — not overhyped, just what I think might actually matter if you're trading this week.
📉 Technical Setup (Daily & 1H View)
* We’ve been in this steady grind higher, breaking out of the downward channel.
* Price is stalling a bit near 558–563 zone — that’s a tough area, and it makes sense since it lines up with prior resistance.
* MACD on the daily is still bullish but starting to flatten, and the Stoch RSI looks like it wants to cool off from overbought.
* On the hourly, momentum is clearly slowing down — we’re seeing lower highs and weakening MACD. If 558 breaks, I’d expect some quick downside.
🧠 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Breakdown
* The Highest Negative GEX is parked at 560, which is huge. That’s where market makers flip from hedging to hunting.
* There’s a fat PUT wall at 560, and we’ve been dancing around it. So if bulls can’t hold this line, things could unwind fast.
* On the upside, CALL resistance is stacked at 562–563, and we just tapped into it.
* IV is sitting at 30.6 with IVx avg 25 → market’s a bit juiced, probably pricing in some chop or catalyst ahead.
🎯 Trade Scenarios I’m Watching
🐻 Bearish Setup (if price rejects 563 again):
* Entry: 561–562 rejection
* Target: 555–556 zone
* Stop: Close above 563.50
* This plays off the GEX flip and rejection at CALL resistance.
🐂 Bullish Setup (only if we reclaim 563 with volume):
* Entry: Break and hold above 563
* Target: 567, maybe even 572 if gamma squeezes kick in
* Stop: Drop back below 561
🧨 Options Play Ideas
* Looking short-dated? Consider a PUT debit spread like 562/557 for this week if momentum confirms.
* For bounce lovers: CALL debit 563/567 spread, but only if we break 563 and hold above.
* With IV a bit hot, spreads are safer than naked options to control risk.
Final Thoughts:
SPY’s sitting at a pivot. It’s either digesting gains before another push… or we’re about to see some hedging volatility flood in. I’m personally watching how it handles 560–563 range — everything hinges on that for me. No need to rush in. Let the chart tell you.
This is not financial advice. Just me sharing how I see the market and how I’d trade it based on what the data and charts are saying.
Doesn't Seem FinishedHaven't posted here in a while, but here goes the usual blabber.
Moved from working in tech to FinTech, closer to the action now. But that came with a lot of realizations. Lot of reality checks pulverizing my forehead. Like most of us, I have become a lot more cynical with the system.
In the time I've spent trading, I haven't been wildly profitable. I am no longer young, but still have kept plenty of naivete and impulse. If I was one of the greats, I sure haven't realized it yet. I've traded since the day I turned 18, with some long breaks between. The plan was never to get rich, since my bankroll was always too small - it was to garner as much as pain and experience as I could, before I made some "real" money, so that I can bypass all the early mistakes most of us make before I incur serious, lifechanging losses. My first girlfriend's brother advised this, and it has arguably been one of the best decisions I have ever made. Thanks, Chad. If you ever find this by some miracle, hit me up for a Tsingtao. Same number, but not the same person anymore.
In the 7, almost 8 years of charting, yelling, disillusionment and spitting at Cramer, I've gone through almost every single emotion and experience a trader could have. I have made the dumbest decisions possible. I have fallen for stupid hype, and didn't act on high confidence trades that probably could've changed my life. I've sold and bought too early, too late, and just on time. I've bought high and sold low, and vice versa. I've gained nothing, and everything. I've lost the same. I'm not sure if I've found what I've set out to, but I'm sure as hell past the "Peak of Stupidity" in the Dunning-Kruger curve. I'm barely sure I know a single thing more than when I started, and that's proof I've progressed at least a tiny bit. I've studied and tried everything from Gann, Wave, Smart Money, Volume, setups, lines, curves, trend, moon cycles... and the paranoia of "market makers" most of us end up in. The truth and fact is that all these things are useful, and completely worthless as well.
In my short little life, I've seen people lose up to quarter of a million on a single trade. My ex-girlfriend's father all-inned at the top of Covid-19, and was convinced to sell near the bottom - they lost a house and a happy marriage over that. My coworker bought into CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Dogecoin/other memecoins at near the peak. His wife divorced him, and he still solicits me over text sometimes to try to get my opinion on some new shitcoin. In retrospect, my worst days are miniscule. In hindsight, all the insane losses I've punished myself and haunted myself with, was probably a penny to some of the richer kids I've met and befriended in college. I feel I have struggled so much, so hard for nothing over the years, with absolutely nothing to show for. My understanding is that there is no lottery ticket, no get-rich-quick scheme, no secret. We all know this, but we still hope. You either have to sell your soul, your life, or your dignity. Or all three. And most of the times, that's still not enough. I'm guilty of buying a few lottery tickets after a rough day, all to end up with some meaningless pieces of paper in my hand. Another $2 donated to the state.
After all these years, what I do have, however, is an ache. A desperation. A hope for something more. For what exactly? I'm sure none of us knows. Anything chased is never as good as we believe it'll be, and in that moment of realization, we only begin to yearn for something anew. And so, the cycle repeats ad infinitum.
I've let personal biases and emotions push and throw me around. Fair enough, sometimes they did lead me to some of my best trades. But often times, my worst. I'm sure we've all been there. There's no escaping that, ever. Every trader who talks of discipline and firmness of mind have never been truly broken before. You can't pretend there are no waves, and you sure aren't gliding over them; you ride alongside with them, and let them push and pull you to where you need to be. Trading against the tide is the dumbest thing we all do, and the most painful lesson you'll never stop learning.
The great thing about getting older is that you start to hurt less. You start caring less. You start accepting, rather than challenging. New things are scary and uncomfortable, and you no longer yearn for the excitement but rather the familiar. The reasonable. The simple and proven. I no longer stand in the pits or against the barriers, but in the edges and the balconies. I look down, and wonder why everyone is so difficult, so abrasive. Why can't we all sit down? My knees ache, and my back hurts. I think about how my beer costs far too much, and the emails I have to respond to tomorrow morning. I sigh, and put my concert earplugs on - can't risk losing any more hearing, or I won't be able to hear my Teams notifications.
This is all very great for risk adversity, but it kills the soul bit by bit, piece by piece. New music, new food, and new experiences are no longer as gratifying. Neuroplasticity has taken a hit, and so has my receptors. I can't remember ever feeling more bored by beautiful things until today, and I know tomorrow is only the same, but worse. We require more, spend more, yearn more as we grow, but find ourselves ever so less gratified. Our beautiful wives become just our wives, and the money is our bank account is always too small. A trip to the middle of the desert in college seemed like a dream, now a trip to Hawaii seems... inadequate.
I'm sure now, $20 at 20 is worth something close to $300 at 30. Put that against the SPY, will you?
Anyways, enough rambling. I have another high conviction call for you. Something I have enough "Fuck You" money to bet on, and my first "grown-up" play. I have made some bad calls before, and some I've probably been so right I could have been halfway to retirement by now. This is closer to the latter, I'm sure of it.
I'm not going to bother explaining everything - it's a huge waste of time like this post, and anyone interested enough should do their own due diligence. God, I sound like you guys now. Keywords are Miran, Triffin Dilemma, and my strong belief that BRICS will never put together a functioning currency. Taiwan vs China, India vs Pakistan, Ukraine vs Russia. All should wrap up soon. The tariff gambit with China and the rest of the nations is all noise, as it concluded today, for yet another 90 days. Technical indicators show a massive downtrend pending on monthly, and the market is hunting for a reason. Divergence in shorter timescales.
Worst comes to worst, maybe I'll convert back to Christianity if everything goes to shit. Give up all my material possessions, become a monk. The pope is from Chicago, and I just moved here. Perhaps a sign, but the market tells me it's a coincidence. But I'm sure my girlfriend wouldn't appreciate that, and being Korean, perhaps Buddhism would suit me better anyways.
I also changed my name, by the way. Why the hell not. Life is short, better go trading.
Spy.. The wedgesRemember this, when it comes to technical analysis, anything that goes up really fast form's a rising wedge most of the time and anything that drops quickly form's a falling wedge.
The Spy has risen 12% since April 21 and after this week i we will give half back and head to 533-535.
As you know market goes no where without tech..
So I'll just show you the proce action of the biggest tech sectors
AMEX:XLK
AMEX:XLC
NASDAQ:SMH
And lastly NASDAQ:QQQ
A big red flag in addition to that wedge is the RSI Divergence since April 23 shown on qqq 1hour rsi
Seeing Divergence is like noticing Ball tires; you don't know the exact date the tires will bust but you know it's coming and you just hope your aren't driving (In calls).
This is Qqq daily chart..
200sma purple line
Red line 20sma
We closed right below 200 day but we are 7% away from the 20sma.. qqq usually extended 4-5% from the 20sma before retesting it.
So long story short stay away from tech calls !
2 reasons I think the Spy can make another high this week.
1. Vix still has a gap to close at 21.50
Fallen wedge here, not surprising, vix pattern is usually opposite of spy. I think an explosive moves comes soon here
2. Dow jones , XLF and IWM have the April 2nd liberation day gap to close ..
The dow jones gap is 2% wide, that means another 800pts up. You ever seen the dow pump 800pts and the Spy not go up? Me neither
So I think unless Spy breaks back below 560 early in the week we could melt up to 572-575.
With no big tech earnings that pop up would likely come from FOMC wed..
Whatever intra week high the market makes, I don't think it will close near it.. what I mean is, let's say Spy spike to 572 wed I think we will close the week 560 or lower
Becareful Swinging calls, with all these tech sectors showing a rising wedge I'm sure some of these tech names reporting will disappoint.
Lots of low volume chop early in the week.. count me out until Wed
Bigger picture
Unless we break 530 we aren't headed to 510.. if we break below 510 then 495 will come.. below 495 is death
If we close the week above 585 somehow then we are headed back to 610
Lastly
Es 4hour chart
Cleanest look here. Yellow trendline represents higher lows.
When we break rising wedge I will short to Yellow trendline
The Daily 200 MA Is The KeyRegarding how price action will play out over these next couple months, there's 3 likely scenarios, and it involves how price will interaction with the daily 200 MA:
BLUE: Price makes a convincing break above the daily 200 MA, retests it, and then surges onward, continuing the long-term bullish trend.
PURPLE: Price falsely breaks above the daily 200 MA and tests the 600 psychological level, rejects it, and falls back below the daily 200 MA and retests it, thus creating a H&S pattern and confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
RED: Price rejects the daily 200 MA, and continues the bearish trend, ultimately forming a new low.
SPY Charging Toward $593? JoeWTrades AlphaPulse Says YES.
After-hours we’re sitting at $573, and the AlphaPulse Momentum Suite just fired a major dual-confirmation breakout signal.
Here’s why $593 is in reach within 2 weeks:
Technical Backing:
RSI (14): 72 — strong bullish continuation without divergence.
MACD (Fast/Slow): Fresh bullish crossover with expanding histogram = momentum ignition.
Squeeze Pro Indicator: Just released from squeeze with explosive green bars.
Volume Surge: Smart money accumulation above $568 on aggressive volume.
Fibonacci Extension (1.618): Maps to $593–$595 from prior leg ($543 → $573).
Gamma Pressure Zone: $570–$580 shows extreme call OI buildup — market makers likely to push through.
Max Pain: Below spot (at $565) = upward pressure through weekly expiration.
AlphaPulse Signals Fired:
"💎 Run Mode: SPY - Confirmed"
"🔥 High IV Zone Breakout - Validated"
"🚀 Aggressive Entry at $572 Triggered"
Target: $593
Stop: $567
Watch for confirmation above: $576 daily close.
Timing Window: 7–10 trading days.
Fyi my first T/P is $584
and as always safe trades and JoeWtrades
BIG Weekend drop coming for SPYMarket reeled in the bulls very nicely this week.
Compression has completed, and a nasty move to the downside is coming early next week.
First target: 555
Second target: 545
Third target: 538
SPY, TIME TO BE BEAR AGAINSPY ready to start its 4hrs bearish TIME Cycle with first target 565 and around 545 by end of month (if not sooner)
SPY/QQQ 8 de Mayo 2025SPY/ES Liquidity & Target Zones - Market Plan Overview
This visual map integrates liquidity levels, volume walls, and SpotGamma data to forecast key trading zones. Let's break it down in a structured format for better clarity and decision-making:
🔴 Possible Sell Zone / Final Target
Zone: Around 571.17 SPY or 5750 ES
Label: "Possible Sell or Final Target Zone"
Confluence: Call Wall (+1) at 579, significant resistance
🧠 This is a key exhaustion point for long positions. Ideal area to take profit or consider shorts.
✅ Upside Targets (Long Bias)
Target # SPY Level ES Equivalent Notes
6 571.17 5750 ES Extreme resistance zone
5 570 5740 ES Above Call Wall
4 568 5720 ES Matches liquidity cluster
3 564.8 5685 ES Near RB Bottom
2 563.20 5670 ES Mid-range pullback
1 561.61 5650 ES Close to mid gamma
🧠 These levels can be used for trailing targets or re-entries on pullbacks.
🔻 Downside Targets (Short Bias)
Target # SPY Level ES Equivalent Notes
1 563.20 5670 ES First major support
2 561.61 5650 ES Mid gamma support
3 560 5635 ES Near Zero Gamma and Put Wall
🧠 Breaks below these can trigger accelerated downside moves.
📈 Key Zones
Green Zone (Buy Zone):
559–558 SPY — Strong Put Wall and bounce probability area.
Yellow Zone (Flip Zone):
Around 564.79 SPY — Possible area of reversal, watch for reactions here.
Red Zone (Sell Zone):
Above 570 SPY — Watch for overextension and reversal signs.
🔍 Technical Tools Used
Call/Put Walls: Indicate dealer hedging areas and potential price magnets.
Volume Profile: Highlights high-activity price zones.
SpotGamma Levels: Used to identify gamma flip zones, walls, and trigger areas.
🔁 Possible Scenarios
Bullish Path:
Bounce from 561–563 range → Reclaim 564.8 → Push towards 568, possibly 570+.
Bearish Path:
Rejection at 564.8 or 568 → Breakdown below 561 → Test Put Wall at 559.
Dollar and S&P 500...a ratio of SPY by DXY, parallel to watchBasically modified a script I used to check a stock vs gold by ratio. Decided that was dumb since gold is the base of all money and stocks are no priced in gold. So I modified it to take the ratio of any stock by the current DXY of that time...both date and timeframe. To which this is created.
See how all points highlighted are equal on the graph and the coordinates are exact to the day, but differ in price position as the two are on different scales. You can see the parallel is quite interesting and has quite the usefulness...if only I could read charts- I do reality and not fiction.
But to those who read these like I read Chinese brail in a upside down backward bible (RIP Carlin) you can just take it that certain structures are looking to be broken or butted up against.
So take from this as much as you can and know that no matter how much AI you need to do a job- you need a mine to get the copper out to make the cables to connect the gpu lol..
Simply comment below your interpretation and where you think things are going or not...nothing is wrong except for common core- that stuff is so right, its basically left. :)
SPY WEEKLY 2ND MAY 2025Welcome to Spy weekly. I have clearly discussed the price action. If you have any doubts, feel free to leave a comment or DM me.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week.
I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks.
I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days.
The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs.
I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth.
Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious.
Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment.
I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend.
Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations.
Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next.
I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June.
I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range.
Let's see how things play out this week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Staring Down A Market Crash - $400 Target for SPY"B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a "B" wave.”
— The Elliott Wave Principle
In my last major idea for SPY, I predicted a bear market rally would take the price to $580 by early May. Now that we have arrived at the target, I am writing again to call for a major market reversal — a crash that will take SPY down to $400–$450 in the coming weeks. There are several factors that I am basing my assumptions on, and I will break them down briefly.
Before I do that, I would like to add to the quote above that I find B waves to be one of the most fascinating market phases. In larger degrees it is interesting to observe how sentiment changes over time and how price action can trick even seasoned traders into thinking the bear market has been vanquished, when in reality the worst lies ahead. In this instance, the collective euphoria is understandable; the trade war seems to be in retreat and inflation has remained tame. What is left to worry about? Who knows — but what I can say is that there are signs that there is still fear in the market and indices are currently at a level where they will be highly sensitive to any bad news.
Here is how I’m counting Wave (B) on the 200R ($2) chart. The price retraced to nearly 0.618 of A (0.382 level on the fib extension) and entered Wave C. I will admit that the PA in Wave C was confusing at first. As I mentioned in my previous idea, I expected the price in Wave (B) to rise to around 75% of Wave (A) and would spike above the daily 50/100/200 MAs. However, the uptrend was choppy and slow — held back by low volume and multiple traps for both sides. Fortunately, the further a trend moves along, the more clear it becomes. I am now counting Wave C of (B) as an ending diagonal, which is common in C waves.
In the diagonal, the price rose in five distinct waves once it entered the channel, with Wave (v) throwing over the top and being met with heavy resistance, which happens to be at the 1.618 extension of Wave A. While this is nearly a perfect diagonal per the rules, one issue I will point out is that Wave (iv) stopped just short of Wave (i) territory. Typically in a diagonal it should retrace into Wave (i); however, I’ll consider this to be close enough.
If the price were to move higher, the next target would be the 2.00 extension of A ($612.70). This would be near the previous ATH, which would signal a flat correction. While this is not impossible, I am going to stick with my initial instinct that the price will reverse around this level when other market indicators are taken into consideration. More on that later.
On the weekly chart, there is volume divergence and a major gap that was started this week at $570. Additionally, if Wave (B) were to end this week, it may end up with less volume than Wave (A). Since Wave (A) lasted for 8 weeks (a Fibonacci number), my box for Wave (C) is the next highest in the sequence — 13. This is just a guess, but if we were to see a similar pattern play out, AMEX:SPY should bottom out in late July or early August. The Weekly 200MA should be an important area of support, so be sure to keep an eye on that.
Also, do not forget to check the Monthly chart. Here we can see that April has a very long downside wick. I would expect to see this get filled in.
Lastly, on the daily chart, here is a recap of where we are in relation to my previous idea calling for $580 on SPY. As I predicted, the price popped above the 100MA and is finding resistance. The 100MA is ready to cross the 200MA, which can be thought of as a second death cross, if you will. I also have boxes here to show the unfilled gaps to the downside. With the trend being this exhausted, I would expect to see both get filled in soon.
Bearing all of this in mind, some people may argue that the technicals do not matter in this environment. After all, some of the headwinds that caused the first crash have dissipated and recession fears seem to be waning. While I won’t argue against any of that, there are other signs that the market is not out of the woods yet. Looking beyond SPY, TVC:US10Y has been on the rise and is on track to make a higher high. I’m targeting 5% over the coming weeks. I have another idea that looks more closely into this so I won’t elaborate any further in this post; however, this is one sign that institutions are risk-averse when it comes to the US economy.
The other component of this assessment is that the dollar appears to be heading lower. The chart above is inverted to more easily show what appears to be a classic impulse wave structure entering Wave 5, which could take TVC:DXY to the 1.618 extension of Wave 1 — around $96.68. If this were to play out, the dollar index would reach its lowest level since March 2022. This could spur a debt crisis where the Fed will have to make difficult decisions. If they start cutting rates to lower yields, it could also add further downside pressure to the dollar, which could make finding the right balance difficult. Keeping rates higher for longer and buying back Treasuries would be the preferred route, but Powell could face mounting political pressure to start making cuts if it seems the situation is getting out of hand, and could lead to more trouble down the road. This strain could be a possible fundamental backing for a stock market sell-off, so it is important to pay attention to.
Lastly, the final signs that indicate to me that a reversal is coming soon is that this uptrend is losing breadth. This is evident when looking at indices that are not weighted so heavily by mega cap tech stocks, such as TVC:DJI and $RUT. It was striking to see AMEX:DIA and AMEX:IWM down Tuesday and Wednesday while AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ inched higher. On AMEX:DIA , the 100MA is starting to cross the 200MA and volume is picking up. Once tech starts selling off, we will see the other major indexes tumble.
I could keep going on and on, but you get the point. Here is TVC:VIX at a critical support level and starting to reverse higher. One last comment on B waves is that it is dangerous to follow the herd during times like these. Trust the technicals, and when something seems off — trust your instincts. We will never know what news is around the corner, but financial markets are so vast that we should assume that all factors known and unknown to the general public are being priced in real time.
As the next phase of the downtrend gets going, it will be easier to predict the bottom with greater accuracy. For now, I’m keeping the range wide and will look for $400–$450. As always, thank you for reading and let me know what you think.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 CPI Data Release Anticipated
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase, following a 0.1% decline in March. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to remain at 2.4%, with core CPI holding steady at 2.8% .
🤝 U.S.-China Trade Truce Boosts Markets
Markets rallied on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, easing trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,160 points (2.8%), the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.4%. Major tech stocks like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), and Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) saw significant gains .
📈 Coinbase to Join S&P 500
Coinbase Global Inc. ( NASDAQ:COIN ) will be added to the S&P 500 index on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services. The announcement led to an 11% surge in Coinbase shares during after-hours trading .
💎 Sotheby's to Auction $20M Blue Diamond
Sotheby's Geneva is set to auction the "Mediterranean Blue Diamond," a rare 10-carat gem valued at $20 million, today. The auction has garnered significant global interest from collectors and investors .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, May 13:
8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April
8:30 AM ET: Core CPI for April
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📊 Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Today
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET. This report will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, following the recent Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation easing to a four-year low.
🛍️ Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ) Earnings Report
Walmart is set to release its earnings today, offering a glimpse into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Investors will be watching closely for any indications of how inflation and trade policies are impacting retail performance.
👟 Foot Locker Acquired by JD Sports ( NASDAQ:JD )
JD Sports has officially acquired Foot Locker ( NYSE:FL ) for $1.6 billion ($24 per share). The deal aims to consolidate market share in the sportswear and athletic retail sector, with JD expanding its U.S. footprint. Foot Locker shares surged 67% premarket following the news.
💻 Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) Faces AI Export Rule Implementation
The U.S. government's AI Diffusion Rule comes into effect today, potentially restricting Nvidia's chip sales to certain foreign markets. This regulatory change could influence Nvidia's stock performance and has broader implications for the tech sector.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 15:
8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April
10:00 AM ET: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales for March
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 14, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 14, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 U.S.-China Tariff Reductions Implemented Today
The U.S. and China are set to enact significant tariff reductions today, lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China's tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This 90-day agreement aims to ease trade tensions and has already spurred a market rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.3% on Monday.
📉 Inflation Hits Four-Year Low
U.S. inflation eased to 2.3% in April, marking a four-year low. This unexpected decline has alleviated concerns about the impact of recent tariffs and may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
📈 S&P 500 Turns Positive for 2025
The S&P 500 has erased its year-to-date losses, turning positive for 2025. This shift is attributed to easing inflation and the recent U.S.-China trade agreement, which have bolstered investor confidence.
💼 Nasdaq to List New ETFs
The Nasdaq Stock Market will begin listing three new Russell Investments ETFs today, expanding investment options for market participants.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, May 14:
5:15 AM ET: Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
10:00 AM ET: Business Formation Statistics for April
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline.
The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555.
SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally.
Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610.
Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY.
Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
SPY BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅SPY is trading in an
Uptrend and the index
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 580.00$ and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will be
Expecting a further move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY squeaked above the 78.6 Fib level If the daily candle holds, we could be challenging the all time high shortly thereafter. And if the weekly candle holds above...
S&P 500 | Long Bias | News-Driven Flow | (May 12, 2025)S&P 500 | Long Bias | Bullish Breakout & News-Driven Flow | (May 12, 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
The S&P 500 Futures reacted strongly to unexpected news, breaking out of a consolidation zone. This created a surprise rally that liquidated many short positions, opening the door for bullish continuation.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: After breakout from triangle pattern on 30min chart
Stop Loss: Below breakout structure / recent local low (adjust to personal risk)
TP1: Recent highs before the sell zone
TP2: Extended bullish target based on upward momentum
Partial Exits: Near any previous resistance or psychological round numbers
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ The price action surged right after a bullish news update involving China, which the market hadn’t priced in—creating a sharp reaction.
✅ On the 5min and 30min charts, bullish structure is clearly forming.
✅ On the 4H and Daily charts, money flow is shifting from outflows to consistent inflows, signaling strength behind the move.
❌ This doesn’t mean it’s time to short—even if we're entering a previous sell zone, it’s more of a chance to secure partial profits rather than fight the trend.
4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note:
This setup will be monitored closely. Will update if conditions shift or structure breaks down.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 9, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚢 Maersk Adjusts Outlook Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Global shipping giant Maersk reported better-than-expected Q1 profits but lowered its forecast for global container volume growth, citing uncertainties from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. CEO Vincent Clerc highlighted that while U.S.-China shipping volumes have declined, the rest of the world remains stable.
🇺🇸 Fed Officials to Speak Post-Meeting
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, eight Fed officials are scheduled to make public appearances today. Investors will be keenly observing their remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions.
📈 Markets React to Trade Developments
U.S. markets closed higher yesterday, with the Dow gaining 250 points, as investors responded to President Trump's encouragement to 'buy stocks now' amidst ongoing trade negotiations.
🛠️ U.S.-U.K. Trade Deal Finalized
The U.S. and the U.K. have agreed on a trade deal involving reduced tariffs and adjustments to digital services taxes. This development is expected to influence sectors ranging from automotive to digital services.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 9:
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
