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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 📈: President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed on March 4, 2025. This decision may impact trade relations and market dynamics. 🇰🇷💰 Bank of Korea Rate Cut 💰: The Bank of Korea is expected to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25, aiming to support economic growth amid recent slowdowns. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, Feb 25: 🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, offering insights into the housing market trends. 📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.1 from January's 104.1, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
$SPY Bull & Bear Options to End FebruaryThe AMEX:SPY is at a crossroads as we close out February. We’ve had hotter-than expected inflation, talks of tariffs, promises of deregulation, China’s stimulus rollout, and Wall Street’s continuing “soft landing” narrative. This is a time to be cautious. Friday’s PCE inflation data could sway the Fed’s March rate decision. Midterm elections and tax cut debates are heating up. Regardless of the noise, the levels show us the way. We are trading in the range of $591 to $600. For this week, we will be using support over $597 as the entry for calls and a rejection under $600 for puts. Here are this week’s AMEX:SPY options: (15-30 minute candles for confirmation and stop-loss) 📜 $595 PUT 3/10 or $591 3/11 (Cheaper, but higher risk) Entry: Retest & rejection under $600 Target 🎯 : $595, $591.50, (Continuation: $587, $585) 📜 $603 CALL 3/11 Entry: Breakout & retest over $597.70 Target 🎯: $601, $603, $603.44, (Continuation: $606, $608)
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
HIGH TIMEFRAME FVG STRIKES AGAINThey say look to the left right? Here we can clearly see the benefits of plotting previous level FVG's on higher timeframes, as well as basic daily liquidity. When plotting like this, it helps in contract selection. As options traders we're looking to make the most out of the market right? Whats sexier than a contract going from like .10 to $200!? By plotting liquidity and FVG's, we are aided in contract selection and it takes a lot of the hoping and wishing out of the trade. Are we sweeping liquidity or not? Are we on track to reach a higher timeframe FVG or not? Make sure you have your contract levels planned prior to market open so you can take advantage of these life changing moves! My ideal entries. This doesn't always happen but its nice when it does! - Break of 30m PMKT ORB (initial entry) - Break of 15m ORB (add) - Break of 30M ORB (add) - Break of FVG (SELL!!!) Just look to the left! Draw the lines, draw the boxes. and don't panic, you got this! The blue shaded box at the bottom is a previous FVG plotted from the 6HR timeframe
AMEX:SPY
by joshblack526
SPY: 1000 day ema, the value investors friend.The sp500 has touched and held many times at the 1000 day exponential moving average, and it coincides with the average 15-16 price to earnings ratio of the sp500. While the 200 day moving average is more widely followed, the 1000 day is significant once the 200 day is breached. The 1000 day is also known as the 200 week moving average. For value investors, the charts alone dont give the full story. And using moving averages alone is not enough to fully judge value. But I have found that using the 1000 day ema as a quick test has helped find many fantastic buying opportunities, after doing further homework of course. I am not recommending shorts or saying we will sell off hard. I do say that If it was at the 1000 ema, I would be more interest in going long and with more conviction. What we are seeing now is closer to the beginning of market taking profits than to a significant entry point. As shown, the sp500 Earnings yield is very wimpy, in the 3% range. No wonder Warren Buffett at Berkshire keeps raising cash. We would be wise to track Earnings yields and wait for better opportunities, which should correlate with the 1000 day ema, in my opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by ValuePig
3
super serious chart guysIm saying resistance into new support around $606. Don't think we just keep going down from here but it's inflation vs nvidia... What's the story to close out Feb? And God help us if nvidia earnings don't help us bounce. I mean a 5-10% retreat wouldn't be the end of the world, but not currently supported by technical signals. Long term view is bleak. The gap between the haves and the have nots will grow and America's earnings abroad will no longer offset domestic slowdowns. Between now and the end of March, I'd expect another leg down as the corporate reactions will cascade a few times yet. People really are bracing for higher prices, which will result in fed rate expectations to be stretched which will slow investment and housing starts, which will exacerbate price expectations. Where the chart goes really just depends on the order of events but $615 is looking less likely by the day, even a mild tap and then bear market is looking unlikely. Last week's action post Fed minutes really 180'd the trajectory. People are on edge for bad news. And we are sure to have a good share of it even in the best case scenario.
AMEX:SPYShort
by pogicraft
SPY Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure & Price Action: * SPY had a steep drop from the 610-613 zone, now consolidating near 600. * Support Levels: * 600.00 (current price zone, minor support). * 595.00 (major support & highest negative GEX level). * 590.00 (critical put wall & last line of defense before deeper downside). * Resistance Levels: * 607.10 (POC, key resistance level). * 610.38 (VAH, major rejection area). * 613.26 (high resistance zone). * If SPY loses 595, expect a further decline to 590 or lower. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): 607.10 → Major liquidity zone, critical to reclaim for upside. * Value Area High (VAH): 610.38 → Strong resistance zone. * Value Area Low (VAL): 599.47 → Must hold for potential rebound. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish momentum remains, though slight signs of divergence. * Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, possible short-term bounce, but confirmation needed. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 615-620 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon. * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 595 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support. * 590 → Critical put wall—if breached, could trigger further downside acceleration. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 30 | IVx Avg 19.4 → Moderate IV, but increased put activity. * Put Positioning 117.5% → Heavy bearish bias, extreme downside risk. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 599 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 595.00 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 590.00 (Put Wall Breakdown Level).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 603 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 600/590 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 600P/590P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 603-607, targeting 610+.
🔹 Target 1: 607.10 (POC, first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 610.38-613.26 (major resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 599 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 590/585 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 603+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 595, strong gamma exposure can push SPY lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts are dominant, showing market hedging & downside risk. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-24-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to make a Breakaway move. I believe this breakaway will be to the downside after watching the rejection near the 609 level on the SPY play out and the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2+ days. However, if the breakdown I suggested (above) does not happen, I suggest the markets continue to FLAG SIDEWAYS into a FLAG APEX near the end of this week. The SPY's trend is such that I see it either breaking down hard over the next 2-3 days (confirming the Excess Phase Peak breakdown) or stalling back into the FLAG formation and reaching the Apex near the end of this week. That means traders need to prepare for one of two major price events: a continued major breakdown or a consolidation/reversion back to the 605-608 level within a sideways FLAG. What I expect is a breakdown in price. That seems the most logical. But, after watching the markets continue to flag sideways over the past few weeks, I know the markets can stay illogical for longer than I can try to short this top. lol Gold and Silver look ready to rally. This could be a huge upward move and very powerful for skilled traders. BTCUSD looks ready to break downward. And I think a breakdown in Bitcoin would be timed with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ as well. This is going to be an interesting week. Start off by letting the markets try to settle today (for the first 10 to 30 minutes). You can't kick the markets to do what you want. After watching this moderate pullback in pre-market trading, we need to see how the price will attempt to trend. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Weekly Market Outlook: February 24 – 28, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation 📈: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber products, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This move aims to protect domestic industries but has raised concerns about potential impacts on global trade relations. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Diplomatic Efforts 🇺🇦🇷🇺: This week marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Key events include French President Emmanuel Macron visiting President Trump in Washington and a virtual G7 meeting to discuss potential resolutions to the ongoing conflict. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, Feb 25: 🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities. 📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.6 from January's 104.1. 📅 Wednesday, Feb 26: 🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Reports the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month. Economists predict a modest decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 homes from December's 698,000. 📅 Thursday, Feb 27: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly report on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits. 📊 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📊: Revised estimate of the nation's economic growth for Q4 2024. The initial reading showed a 2.3% annual growth rate, slightly below expectations. 🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Indicates new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods. 📅 Friday, Feb 28: 💰 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💰: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. 💳 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💳: Reports changes in personal income and spending. 🏠 Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Following up SPYEntry Strategy Entry Levels: 599: Initiate your first position here. 593: Consider adding to your position if the price pulls back. 585: Evaluate a further entry during a deeper retracement. Profit Targets: 607: Aim for an initial profit target at this level. 611: A secondary target to capture additional gains. 615: The final target where you may exit for optimal returns. Remember to use proper risk management, including stop-loss orders, and ensure your risk/reward ratio meets your trading criteria. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by Robert_V12
$SPY February 24, 2025AMEX:SPY February 24, 2025 15 Minutes. The move from 610.70 to 599.47 is extended. Hence a retracement is possible. I expect a retracement to 602-603 levels. On weekly have a bad close. High was made and close was near low. On daily $\spy near 50-day average. I expect a bounce to 603 -604 levels this week for a target 594 being 100 moving averages. Not a week to go long. As expected, 613-614 provided resistance and AMEX:SPY pulled back as extension targe was achieved.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
3
SPY Ready for Impulsive or Ending Diagonal?This 5th wave isn't feeling impulsive at all and if anything is indicating bearish RSI divergence. For these reasons, I feel that wave 5 is in what we call an ENDING DIAGONAL. Ending diagonals are really tricky to trade, as they have a series of overlapping movements. Price struggles to move higher, indicating exhaustion. Will still get a move to the 630 to 670 area, but if trying to trade it, the ups and downs vs impulsive behaviors make this tough to trade. After completion, there is typically a deeper correction, and since I am expecting a larger wave 4, this feels correct as well. Now there is always a chance we haven't finished the prior larger wave 4 and we are either in a running or expanded flat, but will need to see a bit more to understand that scenario. Running flat would reverse soon and then impulsively higher vs expanded will undercut 574 and then rip higher (show on chart with green impulsive waves). Elliot wave is so much easier to understand once the waves are completed vs speculating where they are going next!
AMEX:SPYLong
by KingTrading999
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Afternoon Update : BREAKDOWNIf you've followed my research over the past 90+ days - you were ready for this move. If you were positioned for this breakdown, many of you should have seen decent profits or green in your accounts. I'm so happy and proud to have helped many of you prepare for this move. Stay cautious into the close as we may see more selling pressure drive prices lower. Remember, everything I do is about helping you become a better trader. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5