SP500 on a basic Elliot Wave. Trending upFirst published trade. Will look for a break out at Wave 3… if no break out we ride down to C to make the correction wave 4.
Happy Trading
SPY trade ideas
SPDR S&P 500 Potential Downtrend Line Break $542.70 14.08.2024Apply risk management
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SPY Critical Resistance Test Before CPISPY has bounced all the way back up to where the selling really started to accelerate before the big gap down last Monday. Not only do we have horizontal resistance here back from some lows in June, but we also have a trendline retest. This trendline formed over a few weeks and held several times as support before we gapped down below and continued lower.
We have several trendlines and resistance levels like this you can see across the entire market. NQ is also retesting a major trend break and VX is sitting at support. I consider this to be a bearish setup, but I think it'll break hard either way. Not sure if we'll get a big reaction to CPI tomorrow after today's rally on PPI or not. There's many potential catalysts to watch out for including fed rate cuts, extended global conflict and war, a weakening consumer leading to more bankruptcies and credit defaults which will put even more pressure on banks when the time comes.
We can speculate about these things all day, but at the end of the day it is all about the charts and price action. I like to speculate, but trading based off of speculation is not typically a winning strategy. I'll focus on the charts from here and react accordingly. Nothing can surprise me at this point, should be an interesting finish to the week.
$SPY August 14, 2024AMEX:SPY August 14, 2024
15 Minutes.
The extension drawn from 510 to 531.59 to 518 achieved its target of 540 today.
As said it was a no trade day for me as i had no setup in 15 minutes.
AMEX:SPY held the gap today and as written many times gaps need not get filled. In fact, unfilled gaps denote strength.
If we consider the fall 554.86 to 510.28 AMEX:SPY today has retraced 61.8% around 538 levels.
Also, for the last rise 531.76 to 542.28 537-538 is 38.2 and 50% retracement.
So, for the day holding 537-538 i will have a target 544-546 levels.
I will look for a sell only below 535 for only couple $ as 200 is around 530. Hence i will not short today.
I don't like this patternMegaphone (not confirmed). I don't like this pattern, is super aggressive when is confirmed. Price usually drops very fast. Let's wait until tomorrow to see how the trading day closes. In the meantime I'm very careful. Check my pervious post of AMD down below and you'll see how fast the drops.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-13 : Perfect Breakaway RallyToday's SPY Cycle Pattern, the Breakaway in Trending mode, appears to have been a perfect call for today's price action.
We have seen an impressive rally take place all morning long.
I know it's hard to believe my SPY Cycle Patterns can predict a market trend/rally like this, especially when you consider these predictions are made months and years in advance.
But when you look at how price plays out most of the time, these patterns actually predict market price characteristics as long as some type of panic or crisis mode doesn't intervene.
Tomorrow's rally pattern should be more like what we see today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Crash on SPY mid OctoberDont trust any of my analysis. I am just a guy who has been investing for over a decade and down over 100k on options.
Anywho, I have been looking for "the big short" since 2016 and have missed about every opportunity and blown my account up.
I also was long Dogecoin and sold my 4k position that would have turned into over a million if I sold at the .70 cent pop, gambled the cash in options and lost that as well.
Now I am looking at a crash in mid october.
My plan is to build cash now, short mid october on SPY, then when the crash is over roll the earnings into Shib.
I plan on getting rich using Shib and selling my position in the money then relaxing while we all wait to die.
I wont hold Shib long term because I assume you will need to take the mark of the beast to use the electronic money.
Long term physical silver is where I plan to sit.
Good day.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-13: Breakaway GAP RALLYWatching the markets this morning, it was very clear the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction of a breakaway pattern setup cleanly with the morning bullish price gap.
Now, we get to watch as the markets struggle to move above recent resistance channels (and Fib retracement levels) as the Vortex Rally base continues to build.
I find it very interesting to watch so many other analysts continue to predict a CRASH.
What changed over the past 5+ weeks?
- A different candidate for the elections?
-- the US elections were in question many months ago.
- Bank Of Japan indicating they need to aggressively support the YEN?
-- the US Fed rate hikes were already putting pressure on global currencies and economies.
- Conflicts in the ME (as that situation continues to work itself out)?
-- The Israel conflict has been ongoing for more than 40+ years. Israel is doing what it must to defend itself from multiple aggressors.
- What else?
I simply don't get why so many other people seem to think the US markets are, somehow, going to absorb all of these foreign market economic & currency issues.
So what, Asian currencies weaken further over the next 24-36 months. How does that detract from the US economy?
So what, the Canadian dollar weakens further and their economy moves into a recession. If you remember correctly, the Canadian economy was super-heated pre and post-COVID (at about 150% of the US economy). It is almost essential for the Canadian economy to contract after a massive speculative bubble.
So what, other foreign markets struggle to defend their economies and currency values as we shift/settle into a more defined global structure. The decoupling of these global economies is actually a very healthy component of what is taking place throughout the globe - monetary contraction.
We need to see this type of monetary contraction in order to move into an organic growth phase. The US Fed and global central banks kept the world's economies on a high over the past 10+ years with easy rates. Now, we need to settle back into more normal rate/economic function.
And I still believe the US economy is the strongest, most dynamic, and most capable of growing over the next 24-36 months while the rest of the globe "settles into a base".
Get ready for a Vortext Rally in the US/US-Dollar.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
08/13 SPY ATR Levels and Range When comparing my values to @MapleStax for the day I am again more confident having a valued and experienced point of view.
One thing is the ATR seems to be slowing down now, not as aggressive and not moving up with force at 7.12$
PPI was today, looks tight causing some Premarket commotion
CPI tomorrow eager and waiting.
(MapleStax Notes)
LONGS: Aiming to defend the PML 533.29 (The low Scalp level at SS1 533.30)
in order to push above the PMH 537. (The Scalp SPOP range at 537.01)
Over this they target
537.45 (SR1 on the Scalp side 537.93)
->538.53 (SR2 on the scalp side 538.86)
->539.42 (POP on the Standard range of 539.64)
->540.23 (between POP and R1 on the Standard range of 541.78)
SCALP Longs
SR2 538.86
SR1 537.93
SPOP 537.01
LAST PRICE 536.08
Standard Longs
R2 545.34
R1 541.78
POP 539.64
LAST PRICE 536.08
(MapleStax Notes)
SHORTS: Aiming to defend the PMH 537 (The Scalp SPOP range at 537.01)
in order to push below the PDH 535.73. (Below the SBREAK on Scalp side 535.15)
Below this they target PML 533.29-> (The SS2 range at 533.30)
1h 200EMA 532.5 (Below the BREAK on Standard range at 532.55)
->PDL 530.93 (Below The SS1 and SS2 range at 529.74/527.87)
SCALP Shorts
LAST PRICE 536.08
SBREAK 535.15
SS1 534.23
SS2 533.30
Standard Shorts
LAST PRICE 536.08
BREAK 532.55
S1 529.74
S2 527.87
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-13 : Breakaway May Pause A BitThis morning's video covers the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more.
I suspect today's Breakaway pattern will result in a moderate pause before the markets attempt to move higher.
I still believe the US markets are shifting (decoupling) from global markets a bit, and we are amid a mild "shakeout."
I believe the US markets must settle (establish a base) before the rally can continue.
Ultimately, what has changed over the past 90 days is nothing other than the fact that we have a new dynamic in US politics, and the BOJ has warned that the US Fed's rate decisions may put extreme pressure on foreign currencies.
Get ready for a bit of a sideways slide before the markets resume trending (I believe upward) again.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY is still a BUY++++We held the $531.50 support level on this mornings drop, we have several levels of overhead resistance but I believe we see $548 on this stent then likely resume the downtrend to print a new low under $508 and taking out $500... but we will see how $548 looks
$SPY August 13, 2024AMEX:SPY August 13, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY as expected 535 was for me initially. Moving averages are falling in line.
Today holding 528-529 levels i expect 534-535 levels.
If % AMEX:SPY manages to get 9,21 and 50 averages in line tomorrow we will get a good trade.
So, for the day 528-529 must hold.
No trade ay for me.
SPY Analysis Across Multiple Timeframes | AugustLike we have seen from the video above lets have some talks on these timeframes and see whar the analysis says.
Weekly Timeframe:
SPY is currently hovering around 533.27, which is near the top of its long-term uptrend. We’ve seen a slight pullback from the recent highs, which isn’t surprising given how strong the rally has been. If the pullback deepens, keep an eye on 523.97 as the first line of support. Should the price drop further, 514.09 could come into play as a stronger support. On the upside, breaking through 547.04 would signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Daily Timeframe:
On the daily chart, SPY has pulled back to around 504.45 after a solid run-up. The recent bounce suggests that buyers are stepping in, but the next challenge lies at 515.13. If SPY can clear that hurdle, it might aim for the 524.99 area. However, if the pullback resumes, 503.45 is the first support level to watch. A break below that could see SPY testing 493.41.
30-Minute Timeframe:
Zooming into the 30-minute chart, SPY is in a bit of a holding pattern around 543.41. This sideways action indicates that the market is catching its breath after recent volatility. If SPY can break above 546.64, we might see a short-term rally toward the 550 level, which also happens to be a psychological barrier. On the flip side, if the consolidation breaks down, watch for support around 544.88 and 538.97.
Now what?
Again, note that SPY is at a critical juncture across all timeframes. Whether you're trading intraday or looking at the bigger picture, these levels are key to watch. We’re seeing some consolidation right now, but whichever direction SPY breaks, it could lead to a significant move. Stay nimble and watch those levels closely!
SPY to 523.90With the economic data coming out this week I think we go lower into the end of the week
520 Holds the Key for NowI'm anticipating a potential move down to 520. If the price bounces at this level, we could see an upward movement as the yen carry trade concludes. However, if the price falls below 520, treat this level as resistance and watch for a possible decline toward the 200-day moving average, which could take it as low as 495. Keep in mind that this is a dynamic situation; these levels may adjust as the VIX seeks a rebound and prices continue to fluctuate rapidly.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-12 : SPY 10 Min Flagging/BreakoutThis update shows you why I believe the SPY will resolve the current Flag formation into an upward price trend.
The Vortex Rally base will likely continue to setup over the next 5+ days. But the 531-532 level on the SPY is proving to be a strong support area and as long as this level is not broken - we should see the SPY attempt to rally back above 545-550.
It is all about timing the move and staying patient while the SPY/QQQ settle near this base.
I'll continue to post more updates as price trends.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-12: Vortex Base Building This is a quick update suggesting that the upward momentum in the US markets appears to be fairly strong. But I urge my followers to stay cautious.
The markets are not "cleared for lift-off" yet. We still have numerous Fibonacci resistance levels to break, and we could see the markets move into a broad sideways FLAG formation or break downward again to establish a deeper low.
Within this video, I share what I believe is essential for the markets to move into a confirmed "lift-off" mode.
Please be patient. If we stay patient and protect capital, there will be many opportunities for big swing trades.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY - Next Stop 497Current price rebound struggling at the .328 fib. Failure here leads to probable move down to the next measured move, -0.236 fib, at 497.
SPY short into the 540-543 zoneSPY short into the 540-543 zone on the first touch would most likely pay.
08/12 SPY ATR Levels and Rangethe ATR of SPY still sits in the $7.08 area. Thats pretty good from a month ago where it was in the mid 4$ area.
With much much tension building up Russian, Israel, Iran, domestically, Trump with Elon on X tonight, PPI (tuesday) CPI (Weds) Jobs reports (Thurs), I think we move up today for a few reasons., the previoulsy mentioned and in preperation for the reports this week.
We have a level of 528.50 to look for in the even of any pullbacks, could this happen.. sure it can, anything can happen.
We got premarket highs of 535 so I like this level to hold on any pops for a push further up. We got plenty of range and positions between here and 550, not saying 550 is a target of any kind, but we have traded up here already last month, so we got people with position and hedges up here.
I dont know what exactly I am looking for except VOLATILITY.
Def will watch for Price action, volume and reasons for any of my moves through the actual volume profile and the tape, good luck and be safe everyone and anyone.
SCALP Ranges and values (smaller percentages of ATR)
SR2 537.14
SR1 536.22
SPOP 535.30
LAST PRICE 534.38
SBREAK 533.46
SS1 532.54
SS2 531.62
Standard ranges and Values (deeper percentages of ATR)
R2 543.58
R1 540.04
POP 537.92
LAST PRICE 534.38
BREAK 530.88
S1 528.08
S2 526.22
S&P bulls return in the game; still some work to doLast week, buyers regained control on the daily timeframe, filling the gap from Monday, August 5th, and closing the week at the high. While this was a strong display of power, I would approach it with caution for the following reasons:
1. The market is currently in a weekly consolidation phase. We've already seen how strongly the bears defend their control on the weekly timeframe (as evidenced by the last week of July), so this should not be disregarded.
2. The magnitude of Wednesday’s bearish candle demonstrates how easily the bears can move the price when they feel weakness
3. While all major sectors closed week green, none has managed to close above previous week high. Most of them are in a weekly consolidation, which signifies genuine market weakness.
To sum it up, while it's highly likely that the bulls will be able to confirm a weekly low ( 510.3 ) in the next days, it's uncertain whether they will be able to maintain their position for long. I would definitely wait to see the week’s close before considering a “buy.” Ideally, the bulls should fill the gap from Friday, August 2nd, and establish some value above 534 . If this doesn't happen and we see a strong price rejection, it would confirm bearish control.
The upcoming week is packed with economic data, which could fuel momentum for either side.
