Wait for the drop, seems its 550A great divergence opportunity for SPY or SPX, just a technicals
looking forward
SPY trade ideas
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ?
The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back.
This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it?
Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern.
Double Top
Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them.
Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level.
Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline.
Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern.
Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
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How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024
Black Friday, one of the most anticipated and significant days in retail, falls on the Friday following Thanksgiving in the United States. This day is considered an early indicator of the success of the Christmas shopping season and can serve as a trigger for the so-called "Santa Claus rally" – a period of stock market growth typically observed from late December to early January. Let’s explore how Black Friday might influence the stock markets this year.
Fundamental Analysis
According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many analysts view stimulating consumer spending as key to sustaining economic activity. Thus, Black Friday sales figures are often seen as a vital indicator of the nation’s economic health.
In 2024, Black Friday takes on added importance amid the Federal Reserve's recent cycle of interest rate cuts. Consumer spending levels during the sales period will reflect the current state of the economy, which could influence the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
Impact on the U.S. Stock Market
From 2001 to 2023, trends in the S&P 500 index around Black Friday have been variable, though generally positive. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 1% in 2001, 2007, and 2012, while in 2009, it fell by 1.7%. This variability highlights the difficulty of finding a consistent annual pattern.
However, retail stocks often display discernible trends during this period. As noted by Yahoo Finance, some companies’ shares have shown positive momentum in the week before and after Black Friday.
Historically:
- Between 2013 and 2023, the retail sector outperformed the S&P 500 in late November.
- From 2007 to 2017, certain retail stocks within the S&P 500 delivered returns of up to 5%, compared to the index’s average return of 3% during the same period.
Technical Analysis
It’s not always straightforward. A comparison of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) and Walmart (WMT), one of the largest retail corporations, illustrates differing dynamics.
The chart below highlights fluctuations:
- Blue line: S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
- Orange line: Walmart stock (WMT)
Vertical lines mark Black Friday periods in 2022 and 2023.
Key observations:
- In 2022, Black Friday coincided with a market decline. Historically, the stock market was near critical highs, leading to heightened selling pressure.
- In 2023, Black Friday acted as a driver for both Walmart shares and the S&P 500.
Black Friday 2023
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), approximately 200 million people shopped during Black Friday 2023, spending an average of $321.41 per person – a historic record.
Major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target benefited primarily through their online platforms and effective marketing strategies, as more consumers opted for the convenience of e-commerce.
What Should Traders Expect from Black Friday 2024?
NRF forecasts suggest that in 2024:
- About 34% of Americans will shop on Black Friday.
- Spending is expected to reach another record high, with a 3% increase compared to 2023.
Furthermore, 71% of consumers surveyed by Deloitte indicated they plan to shop online, underscoring the ongoing shift toward e-commerce.
However, predicting the exact market behaviour around Black Friday 2024 is challenging. Each year is shaped by unique political and economic factors. While rising consumer spending could boost company earnings and lead to an upward trend in the S&P 500, individual factors will play a significant role. Traders will need to focus on macro trends and specific company performance indicators.
FAQ
Does Black Friday Have a Positive Impact on the Stock Market?
Black Friday's impact on the U.S. stock market is mixed. While it offers valuable fundamental data to analyse broader economic trends and consumer sentiment, its overall effect on the market is hard to track. However, Black Friday often has a more noticeable impact on retail stocks, as strong sales volumes directly influence their financial performance.
Are Stock Markets Open on Black Friday?
In 2024, Black Friday falls on 29 November, and U.S. stock markets will close earlier than usual. You can find more detailed information here.
Where Did the Term "Black Friday" Originate?
The term "Black Friday" has two main origins. The first is linked to a financial crisis in the United States in 1869 when a collapse in gold prices caused widespread market turmoil. The second explanation comes from 1960s Philadelphia, where local police coined the term to describe the chaos caused by large crowds of shoppers and tourists during the annual Army-Navy football game weekend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$SPY November 26, 2025AMEX:SPY November 26, 2025
Gap up was not sustained.
HL is still maintained.
For the rise 587.42 to 600.86 need to hold 594-596 levels for uptrend to continue in 15 minutes.
That retracement will also be 100 averages in 15 minutes.
Assuming 587.43 to 600.86 as wave 3, being a long one I expect wave to be small move from 601-603 levels.
Provided 594 is held.
Still for me not a chart to short. At the moment.
$SPY Trading Range for 11.26.24So tomorrow’s trading range is pretty straightforward. We have the 35 EMA underneath us
The implied move for tomorrow is between 594 and 601 and the only level in tomorrow’s trading range is the 35 EMA so definitely that should be on your radar and then at the very top of the implied move is all or just underneath the top of the move.
In my opinion for tomorrow, 601–602 bear call spreads are likely a good play if we break the 35 EMA the bottom of the implied move is at 594.
And 594 593 bull put spreads also look attractive to the downside. Especially since that 30 minute two and removing average is coming up underneath the bottom of the implied move.
Market bullish looking like maybe pull back then 607.Guys markets volatile nearing holiday and inauguration coming
Short week then can squeeze 607
Bull & Bear $SPY Weekly OptionsAMEX:SPY
We expect the next two weeks through Thanksgiving to be quiet before we continue on this rally into the end of year through all-time highs. This week we are focusing on the range from $583 up to $598. We have weaker levels at $586 and $591.70.
Here are our weekly options contracts for both sides of the trade. For confirmation, we use 15-30 minute candle closes over/under our entry level.
$590 CALL 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation OVER $586 or $583.56
Targets: ($586), $588, $591
$584 PUT 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation UNDER $583.56
Targets: $580.90, Long-term trendline
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.
$SPY Trading Range for TodayAll right so today’s implied move is between 592 and 599 and add open. We capped up above 599 above previous all-time highs made new ones and pulled back down.
Tonight I’m gonna try and get these trading ranges in the videos. I’m traveling right now so it’s a little bit difficult but good luck today and I’ll see you guys tonight.
The 35 EMA is on the right side of the trading range today and be careful if it does come up into the green. I would expect pullback at that point.
SPY Might Dump MassivelyIt may be an unpopular opinion, but we see the SPY and thus the SP500 dumping massively.
This hidden bearish divergence is enormous and it would almost be a miracle if it is resolved without a sudden, sharp price drop.
S&P 500 Weekly Recap: A Struggle to RecoverLast week’s market action reflected the ongoing struggle for recovery after the previous week’s sell-off. The market opened cautiously, with buyers stepping in to regain ground lost during the prior downturn. Despite early hesitation, bulls managed to push prices higher, eventually filling the gap created by the earlier sell-off. However, this recovery faced significant resistance from sellers, resulting in minimal upward progression in daily closes.
Strength in the recovery was primarily driven by Financials (XLF), which set a new all-time high. Other sectors, however, remained subdued, aligning with the broader market's hesitant tone. While this selectivity isn’t necessarily negative on its own, when combined with other signals, it may indicate growing risk aversion and a lack of conviction among market participants.
It is also worth zooming into the lower timeframes.
The 584 level provided key support but was retested multiple times during the week, which is not a good sign for buyers. Persistent tests of support typically indicate weakening demand, and bulls should be cautious of this development. Additionally, it was remarkable to observe how the rally went precisely to the Value Area Low ( 596 ) of the previous consolidation zone. Buyers should note that the market failed to push higher and close within the value area, signaling potential exhaustion of the current recovery attempt.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to push above 596 , reclaiming the previous value area, which would provide stronger validation for the recovery. On the other hand, bears will be focused on taking down the 584 level, where there is likely big liquidity pool.
Next week is rich in terms of key events.
The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release on Tuesday, preceded by significant economic data on Wednesday. These releases will be closely scrutinized as investors remain deeply concerned about the possibility of a recession. Any signals pointing toward a slowing economy could spark fear and trigger increased volatility.
While the long-term market trend remains intact, the warning signs outlined above suggest that investors should hold off on adding to their positions for the time being.
P.S. ES futures are currently rising in the pre-market session. If this momentum doesn't transform into a sell-off after the bell, it will certainly be a positive sign for the buyers.
Take Advantage of SPY's Bullish Momentum Next WeekRecent Performance: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently showing strong
bullish momentum, trading at 595.51 and maintaining its position above all
major moving averages. Market reports indicate that buyers are actively
engaging, particularly as indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000
experience upward movement. Overall, SPY's recent trading activity reflects
resilience and an optimistic market outlook as it gears up for potential new
highs.
- Key Insights: Investors should focus on the bullish sentiment surrounding SPY,
as experts predict solidifying performance near critical resistance levels.
With inflation on the rise and projected rates around 4-5%, traders should
consider how these factors affect their strategies. The potential for a soft
economic landing amidst inflationary pressures presents both opportunities
and challenges in navigating SPY's upcoming movements.
- Expert Analysis: Market analysts express a predominantly bullish sentiment for
SPY, anticipating a challenge at resistance levels which could catalyze
further upward momentum. The continued discussions regarding interest rates
and inflation will remain pivotal in shaping market conditions and investor
sentiment. Despite a likely increase in market volatility towards the end of
December, there is cautious optimism for SPY's ability to maintain its
upward trajectory.
- Price Targets: Based on current market dynamics:
Next week targets:
T1: 600
T2: 605
Stop levels:
S1: 593.73
S2: 591.94
These targets align with the projected trading range and support levels,
providing realistic expectations for the next week's performance while
maintaining robust bullish strategies.
- News Impact: Upcoming volatility is expected in the markets due to inflation
concerns and key interest rate discussions. As we near December, trading
activity may fluctuate, influenced by holiday sentiments. Market
participants should closely monitor SPY's price movements around the 600
resistance level, as it could serve as a critical juncture for testing
bullish strength, shaping trading strategies accordingly.
SPY Ascending Triangle pattern AND Rising WedgeAMEX:SPY Printing a nice ascending triangle pattern along a rising wedge. Could go either way as marked out but considering last weeks action the time for the rally of santa is here as we head into the day of the great Turkey. Some fat wall street bankers have to cover and generate returns they keep pushing people out of positions just to buy them up. Very likely we set a new ATH on SPY this week. We just as easily could reverse as rising wedges tend to be bearish signals.
$SPY November 25, 2024AMEX:SPY November 25, 2024
15 Minutes
On Friday as expected 596 was done.
A box is formed. tight sideways move.
So, on Monday for the rise 584.64 to 596.15 holding 591 levels uptrend will continue in 15 minutes time frame.
Noe for the 611.07 to 583.8 AMEX:SPY has retraced more than 61.%. So, for the moment any retracement I expect 584 to hold on downside.
In 60 minutes, time frame for the move 567.89 to 600.17 to 583.86 61.8& extension is around 603 levels.
That is the first target for me.
Also, in 15 minutes taking 2 LL at 584.02 and 584.64 and high at 591.06 first target of extension value 596 is done.
The second target here too is 603 levels
SPY WEEK 11/18/24SPY WEEK 11/18/24
Trying to keep this as simple as possible.
Once price breaks outside of the Blue range, watch for possible retest of broken level and be ready to long or short into the YELLOW ranges.
Price may exceed YELLOW range targets, but it’s at least a strong help to make profit 🎯🫡.
*LEVELS ARE NOT RANDOM OR BASED OFF EMOTION OR PERSONAL BIAS. BACKTESTED WITH THOROUGH RESEARCH WITH OVER 90% ACCURACY....HENCE WHY MOVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE GREATER THAN ESTIMATED.*
SPY BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
SPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 581.52 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the SPY pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long term SPY expansion funnelThe SPY seems to be reverting to the long term trend line from 1994 to 2000. By getting to this level all previous crises will be erased including dot com crash, GFC and Covid. At some point there will be a sell off.
SPY: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current SPY chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
bear flagerinoI think it's a bear flag. i am still of the opinion we are selling off with further declines in the very near future.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
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$SPY November 22, 2024AMEX:SPY November 22, 2024
15 Minutes.
The gap up at open was managed will and 584 is still holding up good.
Now for the last rise 587.43 to 595.12 AMEX:SPY need to hold 590 today to continue uptrend in 15 minutes.
I will sell only when AMEX:SPY goes below 589 for 584-585 SL 590.5 for today.
The gap up made on 6th November is holding good and AMEX:SPY has taken multiple support last few days on top of gap. So far.
In 60 minutes 584-585 is a good support so far and is also 200 averages.
Having managed to attain 592-593 target, holding 590 i have a target 595 to 598 initially.
