There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are flat but it's early. Going off the futures chart I think it'll meet my requirements short of a huge gap up.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds (again). Yeah it's been a little bad recently, and every day who knows what is done or said that can move markets either way, and we are not THAT far off from ATH, but the bounce setup is there, and potentially will actually follow through for the first time since the end of October 2023.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Mar 7. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day due to something like jobs, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
From the low of Mar 7 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~10% by Mar 12 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Mar 12 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Mar 21 (right yellow circle)
But I really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). So much so that I didn't even put it on the chart this time around.
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
