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SPY trade ideas

SPY UpdateIt appears that intermediate (A) had OML to give us before it was finished. Price literally moved $0.08 cents below the larger 1.236 and then gave us a reaction. We also got better pos div completing the reqs for a healthier consolidation higher. If we have in fact bottomed, then I would expect the ensuing price action to resemble the dotted line I have drawn on the chart. This doesn't mean that price will follow this pattern to the T. It is just what a standard abc pattern would appear like. Don't forget that b waves are extremely complex more times than not, so that could alter the way this pattern gets carved out. Also, the dotted line may look straight, but the structure will be far from it. People often times forget that price doesn't move in one direction, and there will be choppy overlapping moves. Regardless on how the pattern turns out, if the (A) wave is in fact complete, then the target box is the standard place for intermediate (B) to terminate at. I expect this next move to take 2-4 months if it is to compare to the time duration of the (A) wave. There are no rules governing duration, though. Technically speaking, (B) could be over by the end of the week. The odds of that happening are extremely low, but it is possible.
AMEX:SPY
by TSuth
SPY is still on thin iceA month back I wouldn't have believed this post though I did expect 10% correction and exited my major position at the top. I post this as pure academic purpose and my own record. I find volume profile the most important tool in technical analysis. Whatever I present here is an educated guess and not pure speculation. Before doing the profile I did a VP study on major stocks, since VP shows more clarity on the stocks Based on Volume profile the sellers will have little resistance breaking through thin ice zone. We could still be looking at 514 easily. Then it starts facing some resistance Market is still breaking through bubble territory. The reason I call bubble territory is because the volume became significantly lower after May 24. Most of the large investors and funds had bought their major holding by then. If fact based on news Warren Buffet and Michael Burry started selling USA market in August and kept selling till end of Dec. WB sold his entire holding of American express, one of his favourite company Berkshire was holding largest cash balance in is history by Dec. Smart guy. So I just followed him. Then I ask If these heavy weights are selling will they back after 10% correction? No way, they would wait for at least 20% or more markdown This give me confidence in my analysis and economic environment supports that too The market will quick fall through low volume region or imbalances. These act like magnets for the price and stop or pause for a breath at High volume nodes and even bounce back to take back some the low volume nodes. These can create a flag structure. This what happened when the market bounced back from 5500 to 5790 and reversed again. I correctly said in a previous post it was a bear flag When the market is euphoric and in FOMO stage it will leave lots of volume gaps which attracts the market back to those levels
AMEX:SPYShort
by krisoz
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Core PCE Inflation Data Release: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February is set to be released. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with previous figures. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this data could influence monetary policy decisions.​ 🇺🇸🛍️ Consumer Spending and Income Reports: February's personal income and spending reports are due, with forecasts indicating a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending. These figures will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum.​ 🇺🇸🏠 Pending Home Sales Data: The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, with expectations of a 2.0% increase, following a 1.0% rise in January. This index offers a forward-looking perspective on housing market activity.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.4%​ Previous: +0.9% Measures the change in income received from all sources by consumers.​ 🛍️ Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.5%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Tracks the change in the value of spending by consumers.​ 📈 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Reflects changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.​ 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: +2.0%​ Previous: +1.0%​ Indicates the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Trading Is Not Gambling: Become A Better Trader Part III'm so thankful the admins at Tradingview selected my first Trading Is Not Gambling video for their Editor's Pick section. What an honor. I put together this video to try to teach all the new followers how to use analysis to try to plan trade actions and to attempt to minimize risks. Within this video, I try to teach you to explore the best opportunities based on strong research/analysis skills and to learn to wait for the best opportunities for profits. Trading is very similar to hunting or trying to hit a baseball... you have to WAIT for the best opportunity, then make a decision on how to execute for the best results. Trust me, if trading was easy, everyone would be making millions and no one would be trying to find the best trade solutions. In my opinion, the best solution is to learn the skills to try to develop the best consistent outcomes. And that is what I'm trying to teach you in this video. I look forward to your comments and suggestions. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
9
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.​ 🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.​ 🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 49.5%​ Previous: 50.3% Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.​ 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY - Keep It SimpleAll about trend lines. Since 2020 to today, there have been three major trends. The first was the bull run from covid bottoms to the 2022 highs; a very distinct trend line being drawn. The second was the correct in 2022; another distinct trendline drawn. Recently, we have a break of the uptrend associated with a bear flag continuation pattern. Keeping it simple, we take the pole of the flag and we measure it; 515-520 is a potential target. It lines up with prior lows and also the 0.385 fib level.
AMEX:SPYShort
by KyleHuang5425299008d3470d
SPY Price Projection: Mid-2025 TargetRevealing Market Trends: Logarithmic Regression Analysis Indicates Bullish Path for SPY In the ever-evolving realm of financial analysis, the search for reliable predictions remains ongoing. Logarithmic scale regression analysis, coupled with potent indicators, has emerged as a promising tool for discerning trends, particularly regarding assets like the SPY. This analysis delves into the utilization of logarithmic scale regression alongside two robust indicators, offering insights into the potential trajectory of the SPY's price movement. It's essential to note that the interpretations and predictions presented are based on my analysis alone and should not be construed as financial advice. As with any market analysis, uncertainties persist, and actual outcomes may diverge from projections. Logarithmic scale regression accounts for the exponential nature of price movements, providing a nuanced perspective on long-term trends. When combined with indicators such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, the analysis gains depth, revealing not only the direction but also the strength of the trend. After meticulous examination of historical data and the application of analytical tools, our analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for the SPY, with a projected price nearing 620 EUR by mid-2025. This projection implies a significant uptrend from the current date, with a potential increase of approximately 20% over the specified timeframe. However, it's crucial to approach such forecasts with caution, recognizing the inherent risks associated with financial markets. While our analysis indicates a positive outlook, market conditions can change rapidly, leading to deviations from expected trends. In summary, logarithmic scale regression analysis, supported by robust indicators, offers valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. While our analysis suggests a bullish sentiment for the SPY, investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on personal interpretation and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in financial markets carries risks, and actual outcomes may differ. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Julien_Eche
2
* SPY Update 3/25 *Hello again peoples, As we witnessed today, price did not do what I was looking for yesterday. Instead, we went through some range bound price movement, tested yesterday's high and bounced back strong towards today's high but not break out happened yet. That is just a perfect scenario to raise my blood pressure, but here is what I will be looking for tomorrow. - Today's consolidation could be a bear trap for those that realized the early signs of trend weakness. As you know, our target for W3 to be completed is right above this resistance at $577. We were able to consolidate, and possibly accumulate, right below that level while holding $573 support. Bears tried, but even when they aggressively pushed down price, as soon as it hit our support, price stabilized and bulls pushed back up at the end of the day. - If you look at our 30D Volume Profile, you can see 3 levels that I highlighted. The level #1 is the support we held, #2 is here I can see price finding resistance (end of the 70% value area), #3 is where price might go it it breaks #2. - It might be a crazy coincidence of the universe, but our TP for W3 is right in between #2 and #3. - In our 5min chart, we can see how we were able to bounce off the 200 EMA. And if you look at the 1hour chart: - You can see that our 20Ema(orange) is the same as the 200ema in the 5min chart. - A nice buy opportunity for those that missed today will be if price test that $574 support again before starting our last leg up towards $580. Anyway, this is what I have for today. Let me know what you think and how I can make my analysis better!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Caramel0
ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Differences and Advantages ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Differences and Advantages Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds are two of the most popular investment options, each offering unique features and advantages. While both provide access to diversified portfolios, their differences in structure, management, and trading make them suitable for different strategies. This article breaks down the key distinctions between exchange-traded funds vs mutual funds and how to choose between them. What Are ETFs? Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are investment vehicles that allow traders to access a diverse range of assets through a single product. An ETF is essentially a basket of investments—such as stocks, bonds, or commodities—that typically tracks the performance of an index, sector, or specific theme. For example, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) follows the S&P 500 index, providing exposure to the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. What sets ETFs apart is how they’re traded. Unlike mutual funds, which are only bought or sold at the end of the trading day, ETFs trade on stock exchanges throughout the day, just like individual shares. This means their prices fluctuate as demand and supply change, giving traders the flexibility to enter or exit positions at market prices. ETFs are known for their cost-effectiveness, as most are passively managed to mirror the performance of an index rather than exceed it. This passive structure usually leads to lower management fees compared to actively managed funds. Additionally, ETFs are often transparent, with their holdings disclosed daily, so investors know exactly what they’re buying. ETFs come in various types, from those focused on specific sectors, like technology or healthcare, to broader options covering entire economies or bond markets. This variety makes them a popular choice for traders and investors looking to diversify or target specific market opportunities. What Are Mutual Funds? Mutual funds are investment products that pool money from multiple investors to create a diversified portfolio, typically managed by a professional fund manager. These funds invest in a wide range of assets, including stocks, bonds, and other securities, depending on the fund’s objective. For instance, an equity mutual fund focuses on stocks, while a bond fund invests primarily in fixed-income securities. One defining feature of mutual funds is their pricing. Unlike ETFs, mutual funds aren’t traded on stock exchanges. Instead, they are bought and sold at the fund’s net asset value (NAV), which is calculated at the end of each trading day. This makes them more suited to long-term investment strategies. Mutual funds often appeal to investors looking for a hands-off approach. The fund manager handles the selection and management of assets, aiming to achieve the fund’s stated goals—whether that’s generating income, preserving capital, or achieving long-term growth. However, this active management comes with higher fees compared to ETFs. These costs include management fees and sometimes additional charges like entry or exit loads, which can eat into returns over time. Mutual funds also often require a minimum investment, making them less accessible for some investors. That said, they offer a wide variety of options, from sector-specific funds to diversified portfolios, providing flexibility for different investment goals and risk preferences. Are There Differences Between an ETF and a Mutual Fund? ETFs and mutual funds share similarities—they both allow investors to pool money into diversified portfolios. However, the differences between ETFs and mutual funds can significantly impact which one is better suited to an investor’s goals. Trading and Pricing ETFs are traded on stock exchanges continuously during market hours, similar to individual shares. Price fluctuations are based on market demand and supply. In contrast, mutual funds are priced only once per day after the market closes, based on the fund’s net asset value (NAV). This makes ETFs more appealing for those seeking flexibility and the ability to react to market movements, while mutual funds cater to long-term investors less concerned with intraday price changes. Management Style ETFs are mostly passively managed, designed to track the performance of a specific index, sector, or asset class. Mutual funds, on the other hand, often feature active management. This involves fund managers selecting assets to outperform the market, which can offer potential opportunities for higher returns but also comes with increased costs. Fees and Costs ETFs typically come with a lower expense ratio compared to mutual funds, making them more cost-efficient. This is due to their passive management approach and lower operational costs. Mutual funds may charge higher fees to cover active management and administrative expenses. Additionally, mutual funds may have extra costs like sales charges or redemption fees, whereas ETFs incur standard brokerage commissions. Liquidity When considering mutual funds versus ETFs, liquidity becomes a critical factor, as ETF prices change intraday, while mutual funds are limited to end-of-day pricing. This difference can influence how quickly you can access your funds. Tax Efficiency ETFs tend to be more tax-efficient because of their structure. When investors sell ETF shares, transactions occur directly between buyers and sellers on the exchange, limiting taxable events. In mutual funds, redemptions often require the fund manager to sell securities, which can result in capital gains distributed to all investors in the fund. Minimum Investment Mutual funds often require a minimum initial investment, which can range from a few hundred to thousands of dollars. ETFs, however, don’t have such requirements—traders can purchase as little as a single share, making them more accessible for those with smaller starting capital. ETF CFD Trading ETF CFD trading offers a flexible way for traders to speculate on the price movements of exchange-traded funds without the need to buy them on stock exchanges. CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, are derivative products that track the price of an ETF, allowing traders to take positions on whether the price will rise or fall. This approach is particularly appealing for short-term speculation, making it a useful complement to traditional long-term ETF or mutual fund investing. Flexibility One of the standout features of ETF CFDs is their flexibility. Unlike investing directly in ETFs, CFD trading enables you to capitalise on price fluctuations without owning ETF shares. Traders can go long if they anticipate a rise in the ETF’s value or short if they expect a decline. This ability to trade in both directions can potentially create opportunities in both bullish and bearish markets. Moreover, CFDs allow for trading over shorter timeframes like 1-minute or 5-minute charts, providing potential opportunities for scalpers and day traders. Leverage Leverage is another significant feature of ETF CFDs. With leverage, traders can gain larger exposure to an ETF’s price movements with smaller initial capital. For example, using 5:1 leverage, a $1,000 position would control $5,000 worth of ETF exposure. However, you should remember that while this magnifies potential returns, losses are also amplified, making risk management a critical component of trading CFD products. Costs Actively managed ETFs can charge expense ratios to cover management and operational costs. CFDs eliminate these fees, as traders don’t directly invest in the ETF’s assets. However, both ETF investing and ETF CFD trading include brokerage fees or spreads. Wider Range of Markets With CFDs, traders can access a variety of global ETF markets through a single platform. This reduces the need to open accounts in different jurisdictions, saving on administrative and currency conversion costs. CFD trading is popular among traders who want to take advantage of short-term price movements, diversify their strategies, or access ETF markets straightforwardly. While traditional ETFs are often favoured for long-term growth, ETF CFDs provide an active, fast-paced alternative for traders looking to react quickly to market changes. Use Cases for ETFs and Mutual Funds In comparing ETFs vs mutual funds, it’s important to recognise their use cases based on an investor’s goals, strategies, and time horizons. ETFs ETFs are used by investors seeking flexibility and real-time market engagement. They are attractive for those who want to take advantage of price movements or actively manage their portfolios. For example, an investor might focus on sector-specific ETFs, like technology or energy, to capitalise on industry trends. ETFs also offer a lower-cost option for diversification, making them useful for those building broad exposure across markets without significant capital. Additionally, ETFs may be effective for hedging. An investor with exposure to a specific market segment can use an ETF to potentially offset risks, especially in volatile markets. For instance, during an anticipated downturn in equities, an inverse ETF could be used to possibly mitigate losses. Mutual Funds Mutual funds are popular among long-term investors prioritising professional management. Their hands-off approach makes them appealing to individuals who prefer not to monitor markets daily. For instance, someone saving for retirement might opt for a diversified mutual fund that balances risk and growth over time. Mutual funds are also advantageous for accessing specialised strategies, such as actively managed funds focusing on niche markets or themes. While they typically involve higher fees, the tailored management can align with specific financial objectives. Factors for Choosing Between ETFs and Mutual Funds Selecting between mutual funds vs ETF options depends on an investor’s financial goals, trading style, and the level of involvement they are comfortable with in managing their investments. - Time Horizon: ETFs are popular among short- to medium-term investors and traders who prefer flexibility and the ability to follow intraday price movement. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are mostly used by long-term investors focused on gradual growth or income over time. - Cost Sensitivity: ETFs generally have lower expense ratios and no minimum investment requirements, making them cost-efficient. Mutual funds often involve higher management fees and, in some cases, additional charges like entry or exit fees, which can add up over time. - Active vs Passive Management: If you’re looking for a hands-off approach with professional oversight, actively managed mutual funds might be more appealing. However, if you prefer to track indices or specific sectors at a lower cost, ETFs might be more suitable. - Liquidity Needs: Investors who need quick access to their capital often prefer ETFs because they can be traded throughout the day. Mutual funds lack this intraday liquidity, as transactions are only processed at the trading day’s end. The Bottom Line Understanding the differences between mutual funds vs exchange-traded funds is crucial for selecting the right investment approach. ETFs offer flexibility and cost-efficiency, while mutual funds are popular among long-term investors seeking professional management. For those interested in ETF CFD trading, which allows traders trade in rising and falling markets, opening an FXOpen account provides access to a diverse range of ETF markets alongside competitive trading conditions. FAQ What Is an ETF vs Mutual Fund? An ETF is a fund traded on stock exchanges, offering intraday liquidity and lower fees, typically tracking an index or sector. A mutual fund pools investor money for professional management, priced once at the end of a trading day at its net asset value per share. Mutual Funds and ETFs: Differences ETFs trade like stocks, are generally more cost-efficient, and offer intraday liquidity. Mutual funds are actively managed, have higher fees, and are designed for long-term investing with end-of-day pricing. Is the S&P 500 an ETF or a Mutual Fund? The S&P 500 itself is an index, not a fund. However, it can be tracked by both ETFs (like SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and mutual funds, offering similar exposure but with differing management styles and fee structures. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by FXOpen
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-24-25 : Bozu Trending PatternToday's Bozu Trending pattern suggests a very aggressive price move is likely. I believe this move will be to the upside after my weekend research suggested we are moving into a "blow-off" topping pattern that will act as a Bull Trap. Overall, I belive the SPY/QQQ have about 2-3 days up upward price trending early this week, then the markets will suddenly roll into a topping pattern and start to aggressively move downward. The next base/bottom of the continued downward price trend sets up in early/mid April. The March 21-24 base/bottom is likely the minor base/bottom we have seen over the past 3-5+ days. I believe the breakdown in the SPY/QQQ late this week and into next week will result in a new lower low - causing the Consolidation phase of this downturn to extend down to the 520-525 level on the SPY. Bitcoin is very close to my $88,000 upper target level (only about $250 off that level). Get ready, BTCUSD should make an aggressive move downward after stalling near the FWB:88K level peak. Gold and Silver are moving into a trending mode. I believe both Gold and Silver will rally this week and into the next few weeks as we expand into the Expansion phase. Buckle up. If my research is correct, we are going to see a BIG ROLLOVER this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-21-25 : BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern may show up in the form of an Island Top or break-away to the upside if my analysis is correct. I see the markets stalling over the past few days, potentially setting up a "last breakaway" type of pattern today. I've highlighted how these "last" patterns work where price sets up a peak or trough (in this case a peak) as a last/exhaustion move and how this move can sometimes be very aggressive. I urge traders to stay cautious today as we are moving into a MAJOR REVERSAL weekend. I believe the markets will suddenly change direction next week (early) and will move back into downward trending by March 25-26. Gold and Silver may rally today if the markets move into that Exhaustion Peak pattern. Keep an eye out for Gold/Silver/Bitcoin to potentially rally today and into early next week. Overall, traders should stay very cautious as we move into next week's peak/top/rollover. Don't get too aggressive trying to prepare for the rollover or any potential upside move over the next 3-5+ days. Let the markets show us what and when we need to be aggressive. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-20-25 : Flat-Down PatternToday's SPY Cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay somewhat muted in trading range today. I still believe the SPY/QQQ are in a moderate melt-up type of trend - attempting to reach a peak near the end of this week or early next week (see the patterns for March 24, 25, 26). Even though I believe we are struggling to try to move higher, I do believe any failure of the SPY to move above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level would be a technical failure related to the breadth of this pullback. Thus, I believe the markets have at least one more attempt to try to move higher over the next 5+ days before topping and rolling over into a broader downtrend. Gold and Silver moved solidly lower this morning - almost like a Panic type of selling. I believe this is related to the Flat-Down pattern and I believe Gold/Silver will recover fairly quickly. I do believe this is a huge opportunity for Gold/Silver over the next 30+ days. I believe Gold will attempt to move above $3500-3600 before the end of April. BTCUSD rolled higher yesterday by more than $4000 - just like I predicted. Incredible. And, that is another reason why I believe the SPY/QQQ have more room to the upside than we are seeing right now. Remember this is a trader's market. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1