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SPY trade ideas

April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged. The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention. In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke. Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America. As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there. On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings. Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball. TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone. In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged. This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets. On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500. Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
4
SPY pothole ahead! Drive with cautionHello drivers, I mean traders, LVN pothole ahead, drive(trade) accordingly. 5% drop expected based on VP For those not familiar with LVN ( Low Volume Nodes) in Volume Profile, is price region where prices tend to move rapidly for lack of resistance or support Interestingly if you look at the chart carefully, since June 2024 the prices have moved/gaped 7 times in this region, including the last weeks 10% move travelled this region. Funny, as if prices are jumping the pothole each time it comes across
AMEX:SPY
by krisoz
SPY Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 534.03 pivot level. Bias - Bullish My Stop Loss - 519.46 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 560.94 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
2
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising. Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday. The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020. 📌 High IV = High Theta When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them. Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first: It’s definitely not a cheerful chart! * Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445. * HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip. * Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now. I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure. 🤔 What Can We Do? Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit. Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on. Buying Put Options …. no way? First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases. Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio. 🐂 If You’re Bullish This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound. - Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV. - Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money. Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days). If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further). Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on. 🐻 If You’re Bearish I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward). ⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed. Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive! Conclusion The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
5
SPY Falling Wedge Into Support SPY forming a descending wedge after an extreme sell off, one of the fastest declines in recent history. This wedge style pattern tends to be the result of sharp move in a particular direction, in this case downward as temporary relief before continuiing in the direction of the larger trend. Ill be looking for liquidity to enter the market on the thursday / friday session for a potential bounce. If not, then its likely the market will be in for a rough spring.
AMEX:SPYLong
by afurs1
SPY Hits Critical Gamma Level at 533 – Breakdown or Bounce? Market Awaits Trigger 🎯 🔮 GEX (Gamma Exposure) – Options Sentiment Analysis 🔥 Gamma Hotspot at 533 – Dealers in Trouble Below * SPY is sitting right on the highest negative NET GEX zone at 533.57, indicating heavy dealer long gamma exposure. * If price holds above, dealers may stabilize the market — but if 533 breaks, the path toward 530 and possibly 519.92 opens quickly due to forced hedging. 📉 Call Walls Block the Path Above * CALL resistance stacks from 536–538–540, with a gamma ceiling forming around 538, where net positive GEX peaks. * Above that, 544–545 is a tough zone to reclaim short term unless a macro tailwind hits. 📊 Options Sentiment Snapshot: * IVR: 44.2 → Volatility expectations are moderate but stable. * IVx avg: 29.7, dropping –16.08%, suggesting traders are defensively positioned with volatility being sold. * PUTs 96.8% → This is extreme — a highly bearish options environment, making SPY susceptible to gamma-induced plunges if price cracks lower. 🎯 GEX Flow Outlook: * Below 533: Fast move to 530, then potential gamma landslide toward 519.92 and beyond. * Above 536: Bulls need to reclaim VWAP and move toward 538+ to flip gamma positioning and trap short hedgers. 🕰️ 1-Hour Technical Analysis Trend: * SPY broke down from a rising wedge and lost EMA/VWAP support on accelerating volume. * Price is hugging the lower channel support — breakdown is in play unless a fast reversal occurs. MACD: * Weakening with a bearish crossover — confirms downward momentum building. RSI: * Falling under 40 with no bullish divergence — sellers still in control. Key Levels: * Support: 533.5 → 530 → 519.92 → 485.26 * Resistance: 536 → 538 → 544.62 🧠 Final Thoughts: SPY is teetering at a gamma tipping point. With over 96% of flow favoring PUTs, dealers are in a short gamma setup — and price under 533 risks triggering a cascade toward 530 or even 520 if broader indices follow. However, if bulls can reclaim VWAP and 536+, a reversal squeeze could target 538 or higher. Stay nimble — this is a GEX-powered market waiting for its next catalyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always confirm with price action and use proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Z-Score HMA Indicator OutlookOutside of the obvious news on Tarriffs, let's just focus on technicals for a moment: In case you’re in a hurry: My HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is currently signaling overbought conditions. The Z-Score has moved into the upper green zone, a level where reversals have historically occurred. Hull Moving Average (HMA) remains upward for now, but is approaching a potential flattening point. Price continues to respect a descending trendline, indicating resistance remains intact. Unless the trendline is broken with conviction, the probability favors a bearish reversion in SPY. HMA Z-Score Indicator Forecast: SPY Nearing Reversion Risk This week, my HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is signaling a statistically significant overbought condition in SPY. In case you are unfamiliar, this tool blends the statistical power of the Z-Score with the responsiveness of the Hull Moving Average to give us high-probability momentum and mean reversion setups. Let’s break down what it’s showing right now and why a pullback may be imminent. Z-Score in the Green: What That Means The Z-Score component of my indicator is now in the upper green zone, which I’ve defined as statistically overbought territory. This isn’t arbitrary, it's based on historical distribution thresholds that flag when price has moved too far, too fast from its average. In past instances when the Z-Score has reached these levels, the market has often reverted back toward the mean. It's not guaranteed, of course but the odds shift. This is one of the key features of my indicator: identifying these moments where the risk/reward tilts away from chasing price and toward anticipating a reversion. HMA as a Momentum Filter The Hull Moving Average (HMA) provides the trend context in this setup. Right now, the HMA is still pointing upward, but it’s starting to show early signs of rounding off. If it begins to flatten or turn downward while the Z-Score remains elevated, that would act as a confirmation of a momentum shift and strengthen the case for a pullback. The HMA has consistently helped filter out false Z-Score signals when the trend is strong. But when both tools start aligning, that's when I pay closer attention. Descending Trendline Holding as Resistance On the chart, I’ve drawn a descending trendline connecting recent swing highs. So far, price has failed to break through this line, continuing a pattern of lower highs. As long as price respects that line, it suggests sellers are still in control of the short-term structure. If SPY gets rejected again here, particularly while the Z-Score is elevated, the probability of a downside move increases significantly. Bearish Bias: What the Data Suggests The core logic behind this setup is based on reversion to the mean. When price extends beyond typical volatility bands (as measured by the Z-Score) and momentum stalls (as reflected by the HMA), it often precedes a return to more normalized levels. Right now, we have: A Z-Score reading in overbought territory, A potentially topping HMA, Resistance still holding at the descending trendline. That’s a confluence of signals that, in my indicator's design, suggests a bearish reversion is more likely than a continuation. What I’m Watching This Week To confirm the setup, I’ll be watching for: HMA flattening or beginning to roll over, Break of recent short-term support to trigger downside momentum. If these conditions start stacking up, the short bias becomes actionable. If instead we see a breakout above the trendline with conviction and volume, I’ll re-evaluate because no indicator is bigger than price. The HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is designed to anticipate high-probability turning points, and right now, it's signaling elevated risk for a short-term reversal in SPY. As always, these are probabilities, not certainties.
AMEX:SPYShort
by erikabarker
BEAR TRAP in SPY?🐻 BEAR TRAP in SPY? After a sharp correction, SPY is showing a possible Bear Trap formation — right at the zone where the market often catches short sellers off guard. 📊 The pattern resembles the "First Sentiment Extreme" > Shakeout > Bear Trap phase from the classic market psychology cycle (see inset chart). 🔍 Supporting signs: RSI bouncing off oversold territory (currently at 49.32) MACD showing a bullish crossover forming A strong bounce after a panic flush If this is indeed a bear trap... 📈 we could be at the early stage of renewed optimism. The next few candles are crucial — confirmation could ignite a sharp reversal. 🧠 Don’t chase. Wait for confirmation. But stay alert.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SmartSignalss
Spy Target $500I'm Basically Taking A Swing Trade All The Way Down To the $500 Target with a stop loss of about $545ish most likely being as stubborn as I am Probably Load up more at that price lol, if we even see that price to be honest but in all reality my absolute Stop out will be $547-$549. I Will be updating this post throughout the week... And if you need more advice Ill be here as always and check out some of my New Free Indicators on TradingView to help maximize your returns and as always Goodluck and safe trades
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
15