SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-27-25 : Blank PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is BLANK. This suggests the market will trend similarly to what we've seen over the past few days - likely melting upward.
A BLANK pattern is a price structure I have not identified as some type of price structure yet. I will check the data to see if I can find anything that correlates with this pattern throughout today.
Generally, we are rolling into a consolidation phase that may attempt to break higher or continue consolidating and roll downward.
Overall, the alignment with the Fibonacci trigger levels suggests the markets will continue to struggle near the ranges I've shown on my charts.
Gold and Silver are rolling downward - likely as a result of the EU tariff pause. That move to pause EU tariffs takes quite a bit of pressure off the metals markets.
I do believe the Gold/Silver will continue to try to rocket higher - but this week metals may stay somewhat flat and trend downward a bit.
BTCUSD is setting up a MASSIVE Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is a very big price rotation that could either INVALIDATE (upward) or CONFIRM (downward). If we get confirmation, BTCUSD could fall back below $75k very easily. If we get invalidation, the sky is the limit to the upside.
Ultimately, I believe the global markets need another 60-90+ days to settle with all the global trade/tariff and other issues before moving into a more bullish price trend.
We'll see if I'm right or not over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
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SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-29 : Harami Inside patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will stall within yesterday's body range and possibly trend a bit downward (after NVDA news/earnings).
I don't see the markets really extending much higher today as we are moving into a sideways Harami pattern, then into a CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are really making a big move higher this morning, which suggests traders are back to actively hedging against risk across the globe.
BTCUSD is trading flat/sideways - looking for some direction and, obviously, NOT RALLYING right now.
In my mind, the markets are struggling for direction, and Gold/Silver are showing that real risks are still elevated.
I also highlight my new Pure Alpha TTScanner algo and the work I'm doing to try to help more traders. The best part about what I do is that I get to create solutions/tools for traders. I love it.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-28 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside-Breakaway pattern suggests the markets may attempt to rally above yesterday's close on strong news or earnings. Today is the NVDA earnings day (after the close). I suspect trading will be somewhat flat ahead of these highly anticipated earnings.
Traders would be smart to position into a HEDGE ahead of the NVDA earnings this afternoon.
Obviously, if the earnings are good, the markets will react to the upside. If they are poor/weak, the markets could easily move aggressively downward.
All I know is the tariff moves over the past few weeks pushed gamers and others into buying high-end graphics cards back in April/May because everyone thought prices would skyrocket 30-50% or more. So, maybe NVDA will report strong revenue while costs increase.
It should be an interesting day after the close. Until then, I believe the markets will stay somewhat FLAT - anticipating NVDA data/comments.
Gold and Silver are still working through the FLAG APEX. Silver is already beyond the FLAG APEX and could make a big move higher at any moment. Gold still has one small downward price move to complete before the FLAGGING pattern is complete.
Overall, I believe Gold and Silver are forming a solid base near $3300/$33 for a strong rally in the future.
BTCUSD is stalling. In fact, the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD are all stalling near the 0.75% Fib level (as shown on my charts). We may be setting up for that big breakdown I've been warning about. But, until we actually SEE price break out of the upward EPP Flagging channel - don't get overly confident of a BIG BREAKDOWN move.
My advice would be to HEDGE any aggressive trades you are trying to take right now. If you believe the markets are going to rally substantially, try to hedge that trade with some risk protection (longer-dated PUTS).
Today could be a catalyst day. We may get a breakout/breakdown move after NVDA's earnings/data.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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SPY UpdatePrice made a top just shy of the 1.382 extension fib and then reversed. Now, it has risen back up right into the area one would expect for a mini b wave. MACD is also curling down hinting at a possible move lower coming. If that is the case, and we begin moving lower again breaching $573.25, then the likely hood of a top for B raises exponentially. Should that be the case, then price will be headed to the $468-$389 area next. This means that the market as a whole will be moving significantly lower in the coming weeks.
Dropping to $468, the highest normal termination point, would constitute a 20%+ drop from current levels. To fall to the lowest standard area is almost a 35% drop. This is suggesting that the market as a whole is on the cusp of losing up to a third of its value. What could cause such a thing? Idk and idc. The only thing that matters to me, is what will happen. Currently, the structure is telling us that a major haircut is in store for the markets.
Some of you will scoff at such a remark. I don't blame you either. The world's largest market losing a third of its value is hard to fathom. Thats over 15 trillion dollars of capital just gone. If you look back just a couple weeks ago though, the S&P lost 21.43% or 10.179 trillion dollars in just over a month. Still think it's impossible? And that was just on the thought of tariffs. They hadn't even been implemented yet, lol.
I say all of this to make you aware of what the charts are telling us. Believe me or not, it doesn't really matter. When it does happen though, just remember, you were warned...
05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders.
Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences.
In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers.
Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult.
Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital.
Get some.
Happy Memorial Day.
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The TACO Trade Is Back!🌮 AMEX:SPY
📊 The Setup:
The TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out") continues to prove its resilience in the face of trade war headlines. The market dips sharply when tariffs are announced, and then surges back up as the news cycle turns, with Trump pausing or reversing his decisions.
We’ve seen multiple examples of this year-to-date on the AMEX:SPY chart:
🔹 Trump Pauses Tariffs for Canada & Mexico – market bounces.
🔹 Trump Pauses Most Liberation Day Tariffs – another bounce.
🔹 Trump Floats Lowering Tariffs on China – bounce continues.
🔹 Trump Pushes Back EU Tariffs to July – market rips higher.
It’s as if every tariff tantrum is followed by an inevitable rebound. Could this be the pattern to trade around for the next few months?
At this point, it almost feels like we’re watching a predictable movie. Every new threat to impose tariffs or spark a trade war is just a scene in the “TACO” storyline, and the markets are starting to get used to the plot twist.
Are we playing into an endless loop of fear and relief? Is this time different, or just the same old TACO? How much longer can we trust that the market will “chicken out” and bounce back every time tariffs are floated?
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances
The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets.
📉 Bond Yields Retreat
After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks.
⛽ Oil Inventories Jump
API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names.
🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 30:
8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April
Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April
Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Spy Monthly Close $595-$602📈 May is on track to close bullish with projected levels of $595–$602.
This move is backed by the AlphaPulse™ Trading System:
– Momentum signals confirm multi-timeframe strength
– Anchored VWAP reclaimed from April highs
– MACD bull cross + RSI holding strong (60–70 zone)
– Price above SMA50/200 with elevated volume
– Fibonacci 1.618 aligns with $602 target
When anchored VWAP, MACD, RSI, volume, fibs, and AlphaPulse all align bullishly — and price structure supports clean higher lows — the probability of a May close between $595 and $602 becomes statistically favorable.
📈 Thesis Probability and Conditional Breakdown
🔷 Bullish Probability Estimate (May Close $595–$602):
📊 68% Probability of bullish continuation into $595–$602
Based on:
Multi-timeframe confluence (MACD, RSI, AVWAP)
No bearish divergences
Volume + smart money alignment (AlphaPulse Bot)
✅ Bull Case (If $580 Holds):
If price continues holding above $580, expect:
Continuation wave toward $595 (local fib target)
Acceleration into $602 (1.618 extension) if breakout holds above $596
Supported by:
AVWAP control staying bullish
MACD histogram expanding
RSI maintaining >60 zone
AlphaPulse breakout signal staying green
🎯 Target: $595–$602
📆 Timeframe: By May 30 close
🎯 Optional overshoot: $608 wick zone if volume spikes
⚠️ Bear Case Trigger (If $580 Breaks)
If $580 fails on high volume or with RSI divergence, the setup shifts:
Condition Bearish Implication
Break below $580 Invalidates current higher low base
MACD flips negative Signals momentum exhaustion
RSI < 50 Enters bearish zone
AlphaPulse Signal flips red Confirms structural breakdown
🔻 Downside Risk:
If $580 fails, probability of bearish retrace to $567 = 75%
$567 is the last demand support zone
Also aligns with prior consolidation + rising SMA50
Below this, momentum cracks completely, and macro selling may accelerate
🧠 Final Note:
“Above $580 = control remains with bulls.
Below $580 = structure breaks, and $567 becomes the likely magnet.”
AS always SafeTrades And JoeWtrades
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – 1H Smart Money Concepts Short SetupPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 28 May 2025
🧠 Smart Money Concepts | Volume Profile | Fibonacci Retracements | ORB (0930-0945)
🔻 Trade Context:
We positioned short around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone near $588.50, aligning with a premium pricing zone and weak high rejection. Price structure has confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS) with a decisive move lower after liquidity sweep above previous highs.
🔍 Key Technicals:
📌 Positioned: $588.50–$589.00 zone
🔺 Weak High: $593.00+
📉 Short Target Zone:
TP1: $575.59 (0.886 retracement support)
TP2: $568.00–$563.22 (1.382 extension zone)
TP3: $558.61 (Volume cluster low and liquidity magnet)
⚖️ Equilibrium & Volume Confirmation:
Notice how equilibrium aligns with the lower range compression. Volume divergence adds confluence for downside continuation.
🎯 Outlook:
We're anticipating a move toward the 1.382–1.786 extension zones, with $563.22 as the primary short target. This aligns with internal liquidity pockets and previous consolidation zones.
📊 Strategy:
High-conviction SMC short with FVG alignment, premium rejection, and structural confirmation. Risk is tightly managed above the weak high. DSS confirms bearish momentum build-up.
💼 Trade Ideas & DSS-backed Analysis by
WaverVanir International LLC
#SPY #TradingView #SMC #AlgoTrading #Fibonacci #ORB #SmartMoney #ShortSetup #WaverVanir #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure
Flying into the sun or about to get burnt?Market is about to reach all-time highs again. Many trade deals must have been made. Interest rates must have been cut. Wars must have been resolved. Personal debt must have come under control. Corporate debt must have been resolved.
Wait, nothing has changed? Things are worse? Well why is the index about to hit new all-time highs? My take is a major fake out. We are about to set a double top as we complete a rising wedge pattern.
The rising wedge.
What began at the market bottom on 7 April, has remained bound in a channel. If the first pump up was an A followed by the declaration of the channel bottom as B, wave C has last over a month upward. We have wave 3 signals identifying wave 3 of C ending with the high on 19 May. Last week's dip was wave 4 and now we fly high this week. It is unclear if we actually make a new all-time high or fall just short. The below chart has 138.197% extension around 610.63. Inside wave C, my wave 1 was nine days long, and wave 3 was only 8. This points to wave 5 lasting less than 8 days. A common wave 1-3-5 duration in relation to wave 3 is around 114% for 1 and 50% for wave 5.
The height of the rising wedge covers 66.82 points. This same distance should provide the first target bottom once we exit the channel, possibly as early as next week. Once the bottom falls, we then examine the double top pattern. Although the neckline stretches far backwards, the bottom is established at the 7 April low. The distance from the neckline to the all-time high in February provides the next possible minimum target bottom by taking this 131.43 drop and subtracting it from the neckline of 481.80. This puts the initial low around 350.37 sometime later this year or early next.
There is a perfect storm of calamity brewing with zero resolutions in place or even planned. Do we finally drop or keep rising into the sun?
SPY - Ground Up Multi-Time Frame Analysis!Lots of interesting algorithms at play here between the LTF and HTF algorithms. We need to be very cautious before entering long-term positions.
But, there will be great opportunities to take LTF trades once we start seeing our green tapered buying proving itself and/or a respect and proof of a selling channel like orange or red
Happy Trading :)