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SPY trade ideas

Analyzing the S&P - Understanding algos on a fresh chartThis will be very helpful for those looking at a bare chart and are not certain how to proceed. This is a somewhat advanced but also very basic walk through of how we can analyze the S&P and broader market in 10 minutes. I can do this for hours and get into way more detail as I do with my students but this will be a helpful refresher for those following my videos - which have already built in algorithms drawn - as to how to start from scratch and what all these lines mean. Keep in mind however that I do not touch on creating and understanding supply & demand levels here which is a very important part of the confirmation process for actual trading. Happy Trading all :)
AMEX:SPY
by ReigningTrades
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
SPY Holding the Line at $590! Will We See a Bounce or More DownsTechnical Analysis for February 27, 2025: 1. Current Price Action: * SPY is trading around $593, attempting to hold above $590 (key support level). * A falling wedge pattern is forming, which could signal a reversal if SPY reclaims $595-$600. * POC (Point of Control) at $594.43 is the key pivot area for direction. 2. Key Levels to Watch: * Support: $590 (Critical level), $589.56 (Last line of defense), $580 (Major downside risk). * Resistance: $595-$600 (Breakout level), $605 (Strong resistance). * Upside Targets: $610, $615, $620. 3. Indicators Analysis: * MACD: Bearish, but flattening, suggesting slowing downside momentum. * Stoch RSI: Moving higher, indicating a potential short-term bounce. * Volume Profile: Heavy liquidity between $590-$595, indicating strong accumulation or distribution. GEX & Option Strategy for Tomorrow and the Week: 1. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: * Call Walls: $610, $620 → Resistance areas. * Put Walls: $590, $580 → Key downside support. 2. IV & Sentiment: * IVR: 30.8 (Low) * IVx Avg: 22.7 (Very low volatility, favoring breakouts). * Put Positioning: 102.9% bearish sentiment. * GEX Sentiment: Very bearish—needs $595+ to shift sentiment. 3. Trading Suggestions: * Bullish Setup: If SPY reclaims $595-$600, consider long positions targeting $605-$610, with a stop at $590. * Bearish Setup: If SPY fails to hold $590, short setups targeting $585-$580, stop at $595. * Options Play: Selling put spreads at $590 or call spreads near $610 resistance. 📌 My Thoughts & Suggestion: * SPY is sitting at a critical support zone ($590-$593)—holding here could trigger a bounce toward $600-$605. * A break below $590 could lead to accelerated selling toward $580. * Low volatility suggests a breakout move is coming, making long options attractive. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Spy $615 What? is it happening this is a short thesis road bk to $615 last time we were so close we hit $613 now my assessment is seeing Road back to $615 I do anticipate it open Monday around $598-$601 Max target we do have very strong support around 588ish which I don't think we see unless markets grab liquidity to wipe out calls and trap shorts Which is very common these Days.. I will Keep updating this is my personal thesis i think the correction is over and we are heading back to $615 Come Monday Morning Ill post and see what my bot foresees as well as my Price forecast to give an extra confidence boost on the thesis... as Always traders good luck and safe trades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 602.54 Safe Stop Loss - 590.04 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY at a Critical Reversal! Will Bulls Maintain Momentum? Technical Analysis (TA) for SPY * Trend Overview: SPY recently bounced off a key support level near 582-585, forming a potential reversal zone. * Volume & Price Action: * A strong recovery candle has formed, indicating increased buying activity. * 600.05 is the next major resistance level to watch. * If the price clears 597.5, it could gain momentum toward 610-615. * Indicators: * MACD is crossing bullish, suggesting potential momentum continuation. * Stochastic RSI is approaching overbought, signaling potential resistance. * Support & Resistance Levels: * Key Support: 585, followed by 582.44. * Resistance Zones: 600.05, then 611-615. Options Flow & GEX Analysis for SPY * Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: * Major Call Resistance: 610-615 (where dealers may start hedging negatively). * Put Support Wall: 585-580, the strongest downside cushion. * If price holds 590+, dealers may shift their hedging and push SPY higher. * IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank: 34.5 (moderate implied volatility). * Put Positioning: 103.3%, suggesting heavy hedging on the downside. Trade Considerations * Bullish Scenario: If SPY stays above 597.5, it could test 600-605, with 615 as a stretch target. * Bearish Scenario: If it breaks below 590, it may retest the support at 585-580. * Options Traders: Watch for GEX shifts; clearing 600 could trigger dealer hedging toward 610-615. Final Thoughts & Suggestion: * Short-term traders should watch how SPY reacts at 597.5-600 for confirmation. * Options traders can look for breakout confirmation above 600 before considering bullish positions. * Risk management is key—tight stops are necessary if price rejects resistance. 📉 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence before making trading decisions. 🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
$SPY Bull & Bear Options to End FebruaryThe AMEX:SPY is at a crossroads as we close out February. We’ve had hotter-than expected inflation, talks of tariffs, promises of deregulation, China’s stimulus rollout, and Wall Street’s continuing “soft landing” narrative. This is a time to be cautious. Friday’s PCE inflation data could sway the Fed’s March rate decision. Midterm elections and tax cut debates are heating up. Regardless of the noise, the levels show us the way. We are trading in the range of $591 to $600. For this week, we will be using support over $597 as the entry for calls and a rejection under $600 for puts. Here are this week’s AMEX:SPY options: (15-30 minute candles for confirmation and stop-loss) 📜 $595 PUT 3/10 or $591 3/11 (Cheaper, but higher risk) Entry: Retest & rejection under $600 Target 🎯 : $595, $591.50, (Continuation: $587, $585) 📜 $603 CALL 3/11 Entry: Breakout & retest over $597.70 Target 🎯: $601, $603, $603.44, (Continuation: $606, $608)
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
$SPY Recap for Feb 24th Good Morning, y’all. I lost my voice (more like a sore throat, I feel fine otherwise but a sore throat so doing the charts on here today) Yesterday - SPY opened with a pop up, and at the 1hr200MA got pushed underneath the 50 Day moving average. We got pack above the 50 day and got pushed back down by the one hour 200. That 1 hour timeframe is fighting back now that the 35EMA slid under the 30min 200. (That was a lot) We DID trader completely within the implied move. The 50DAY moving average is not pointing DOWN here.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by PogChan
[03/03] SPY GEX Analysis (Until Friday Expiration)Overall Sentiment: Currently, there’s a positive GEX sentiment, suggesting an optimistic start to the week following Friday’s bounce. However, the key Call resistance appears at 600, and it may not break on the first attempt. If optimism remains strong, there’s a chance SPY 0.09%↑ could still push above that zone after some initial back-and-forth. 🟢Upside Levels: 600–605 Zone: This is a major resistance area. Should SPY move decisively through 600/605, the next potential target could be 610. 610: This is currently the largest positive GEX zone for the week. Current option pricing suggests only about a 9% chance of closing at or above 610 by Friday, so it might require a particularly strong move to break through. 🔵 Transition Zone: Roughly 592–599. The gamma flip level is near 592, and staying above that keeps the market in a positive gamma range for now. 🔴 Downside Risk: If 592 Fails (or HVL climbing up during the week, and after that HVL fails…): A drop could accelerate toward 585, which may act as the first take-profit zone for bears. Below that, 580 could be in play if selling intensifies. Lower Support: 575 is the last strong support mentioned, but current option probabilities suggest about an 88% chance of finishing above that level, making a move below 575 less likely—though still possible given the higher put skew. 🟣Volatility & Skew: IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) is quite high on SPY, with a notable put pricing skew (around 173.1%). This heightened put skew indicates the market is pricing in faster, more volatile downward moves compared to upside.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
Long SPY: Watch Key Levels for Recovery Next Week - Key Insights: The SPY is showing signs of recovery after a substantial decline, bouncing off critical support around $590. Maintaining above this level is crucial for a bullish outlook. Traders should focus on the resistance at $600, as surpassing this could ignite further upward momentum. The external economic factors, including declining oil prices and fluctuations in interest rates, are providing a supportive backdrop for equities. - Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$620 and T2=$630. Stop levels will be S1=$590 and S2=$583, providing a safety net for long positions while aligning with current market conditions. - Recent Performance: SPY recently faced a challenging period with six consecutive days of decline, hitting lows around $585. However, in the last sessions, it has rebounded over 1.5%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment toward a more optimistic outlook. - Expert Analysis: Analysts remain mixed on the pace of recovery, with some expecting a V-shaped rebound toward $620 by March. The consensus is that maintaining above vital support levels will be essential for sustaining bullish sentiment, while any breach below $580 could trigger further market pessimism. - News Impact: The broader market dynamics are being significantly shaped by external factors such as interest rates, which have recently declined from 4.5% to 4.23%. Additionally, falling oil prices under $70 a barrel are seen as beneficial for reducing inflationary pressures, further adding to the favorable environment for equities like SPY.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
SPY in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell when at three of these events happen: * Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones * Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands * Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level * Price at Fibonacci levels So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price in buying zone at bottom of channels Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band Entry at $586 Target is upper channel around $612
AMEX:SPYLong
by chancethepug