$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right guys this morning we opened with a gap down into a support gap that has the 30 minute two removing average and the one hour two and removing average and we just got above the 50 day moving average and the expected move on the day is between 595 and 601. I do believe it’s possible at this 50 day moving average holds us down, we do have a red signal line.
It’s gonna be a wild week, so don’t feel like you need to rush into any trades, there’s lots of earnings and potentially a ton of volatility. Remember, we have an island gap underneath the tuna, removing average that still needs to be filled.
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-27 : Consolidation PatternToday is an incredible day in my world.
I have been warning of a major peak/top near Jan 20-23 for more than 45+ days. I have continued to warn traders of a major top/peak near the Inauguration and how I believe the markets would suddenly shift downward - targeting the Feb 9-11 Deep-V bottom.
All of my predictive analysis is based on Gann, Tesla (Energy frequency, amplitude, vibration) and Fibonacci research.
The reason I state this is because I want you to start thinking of price action in terms of energy expulsion and consolidation.
Price is the ultimate indicator. My research proves we can attempt to predict future price moves (tops, bottoms, strength, weakness, and others) with a moderate degree of accuracy.
As I continue to expand my research, tools, and resources, I will continue to improve my analysis/predictive capabilities.
To me, this is very exciting.
Today, I would expect the markets to consolidate in a fairly wide/volatile range.
Gold and Silver will likely continue to try to recover/rally out of these flagging/pennant formations. Silver is set in more of a range-bound price channel, whereas Gold is clearly moving into a Pennant/Flag setup.
BTCUSD appears to have broken the EPP Flag channel and should attempt to move down to GETTEX:92K over the next 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true.
The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out.
There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money.
The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
SPY at a Key Inflection Point! Trading and Options Insights You Technical Analysis for SPY:
* Current Price: $607.50
* Trend Overview: SPY is currently trading within an ascending wedge pattern. This structure is often indicative of a potential pullback, but a breakout above the upper trendline could signal bullish continuation.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance: $610.78 (Recent high and top of the wedge).
* Support: $600 psychological support, $592 for stronger confluence with the lower trendline.
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD: Showing slight bearish divergence; potential short-term consolidation or pullback.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold levels signal reduced momentum but indicate a potential reversal opportunity.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Analysis:
* Options Activity:
* Call Walls:
* $610 with 94.83% GEX Call Resistance (Key for upward breakout).
* $615 and $620 as upper resistance layers for bullish scenarios.
* Put Walls:
* $600 with a 90.2% Put wall presence.
* $590 as the strongest support with concentrated negative GEX.
* IVR: 11.4, signaling lower implied volatility.
* Options Strategy:
* Bullish Setup: Look for an entry on a breakout above $610 with a target of $615-$620. Use $600 as a trailing stop.
* Bearish Setup: Consider bearish spreads targeting $600 if price fails to sustain above $607.
Actionable Trading Plan:
1. Scalping Outlook:
* Monitor price action near $607-$608. Quick intraday bounces or rejections can offer opportunities.
2. Swing Outlook:
* A sustained breakout above $610 can confirm bullish momentum; set targets at $615, then $620.
* Below $600, prepare for a retest of the $590-$592 zone.
Conclusion:
SPY is showing signs of consolidation near its highs, and key levels like $610 and $600 will play a crucial role in determining its next direction. Options activity aligns with resistance near $610 and major support near $590. Stay vigilant with stops and manage risk appropriately.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
The Splintering Market: Geopolitical Upheaval, Financial Innovation, and the Looming Food Crisis
Abstract
The global market is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by rapid geopolitical shifts, technological advancements, and the emergence of innovative financial tools. However, this transformation is not without its challenges. While sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) thrive, the food supply chain faces unprecedented stress, threatening to plunge the world into a crisis not seen since the Great Dust Bowl. This paper explores the concept of market splintering, the widening gap between social classes, and the compounding effects of weakened regulatory agencies on public health and safety. It also examines how these forces interact to reshape the global economy and society.
Introduction: A Market and Society at a Crossroads
The modern financial market and society are no longer cohesive entities. Instead, they are splintering into distinct sectors and classes, each responding differently to the pressures of geopolitics, technological innovation, and shifting consumer demands. This paper argues that the market is entering a new paradigm, one best described as a "horizontal hourglass," where extreme highs and lows coexist, flattening traditional indices like the S&P 500 into a thread of stagnation. Simultaneously, society is fracturing along class lines, with the looming food crisis threatening to exacerbate these divisions.
The catalysts for this transformation are multifaceted. On one hand, geopolitical upheaval—exemplified by Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Colombia—disrupts global supply chains and traditional industries. On the other hand, financial innovation, such as Roundhill Investments' synthetic covered call ETFs, offers new opportunities for investors to adapt to this fractured landscape. However, the most pressing issue lies in the food supply chain, which is under immense stress due to climate change, weakened regulatory oversight, and geopolitical tensions. Together, these forces are reshaping the global economy and society in ways that demand a forward-looking approach to investment, governance, and public health.
Chapter 1: The Horizontal Hourglass—A New Market Paradigm
1.1 The Traditional Market Model
Historically, financial markets have been analyzed through the lens of cyclical patterns and historical data. The Great Depression, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic all followed a similar trajectory: a sharp downturn followed by a gradual recovery. However, this model fails to account for the complexities of the modern global economy, where technology, data, and geopolitics interact in unprecedented ways.
1.2 The Horizontal Hourglass Explained
The "horizontal hourglass" is a metaphor for the current market dynamics. Instead of a vertical crash, where all sectors decline simultaneously, the market is bulging outward. High-growth sectors like technology, renewable energy, and electric vehicles (EVs) are reaching new highs, while traditional industries such as consumer goods and manufacturing face significant challenges. This divergence creates a flattened middle, where indices like the S&P 500 struggle to reflect the true state of the market.
Top Half of the Hourglass: Dominated by innovation-driven sectors such as technology, EVs, and data analytics.
Bottom Half of the Hourglass: Traditional industries, including daily consumer goods and manufacturing, are weighed down by geopolitical disruptions and supply chain vulnerabilities.
Flattened Middle: The S&P 500 and other indices fail to capture the extremes, leading to a decade of stagnation.
Chapter 2: The Rise of AI and EVs as Stabilizing Forces
2.1 Artificial Intelligence: The New Economic Engine
AI is rapidly becoming the backbone of the global economy, driving innovation in sectors ranging from healthcare to finance. Companies leveraging AI are experiencing exponential growth, creating a stark contrast with traditional industries struggling to adapt.
AI in Supply Chain Management: While AI is helping optimize supply chains in high-tech industries, it has yet to address the vulnerabilities in the food supply chain, which remains heavily reliant on manual labor and outdated infrastructure.
AI and Class Disparity: The rise of AI is creating a new class of "data elites," further widening the gap between the wealthy and the working class.
2.2 Electric Vehicles: The Green Revolution
The EV market is another stabilizing force in the fractured economy. Companies like Tesla and Rivian are driving growth in the top half of the hourglass, benefiting from government incentives and consumer demand for sustainable transportation.
EVs and Resource Scarcity: The production of EVs relies on rare earth metals, which are subject to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
EVs and the Food Crisis: While EVs represent progress in reducing carbon emissions, their rise does little to address the immediate challenges of food production and distribution.
Chapter 3: The Looming Food Crisis
3.1 A Fragile Supply Chain
The global food supply chain is under immense stress, facing challenges not seen since the Great Dust Bowl. Climate change, geopolitical tensions, and labor shortages are converging to create a perfect storm.
Climate Change: Extreme weather events are disrupting crop yields, leading to shortages and price spikes.
Geopolitical Tensions: Tariffs, sanctions, and trade wars are exacerbating supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in countries reliant on food imports.
Labor Shortages: Deportation policies and restrictive immigration laws are reducing the availability of agricultural labor, particularly in regions like Southern California.
3.2 The Role of Weakened Regulatory Agencies
The weakening of the CDC and FDA under the current administration is compounding the food crisis. Budget cuts and reduced oversight are creating a situation where food safety cannot be guaranteed, leading to widespread illness and loss of life.
Foodborne Illnesses: Without proper oversight, contaminated food is more likely to enter the supply chain, causing outbreaks of diseases like E. coli and salmonella.
Public Health Crisis: The lack of a coordinated response from the CDC and FDA is exacerbating the spread of illness, further straining healthcare systems.
3.3 The Impact on Society
The food crisis is widening the gap between social classes, with the working class bearing the brunt of rising food prices and shortages. However, the upper class is not immune, as the lack of safe, reliable food sources affects everyone.
Class Disparity: The wealthy can afford to import food or invest in private agriculture, while the working class struggles to access basic necessities.
Social Unrest: The combination of food shortages and class disparity is likely to lead to increased social unrest, as seen in historical examples like the French Revolution.
Chapter 4: The Intersection of Geopolitics, Food, and Financial Innovation
4.1 How Geopolitics Shapes the Food Crisis
Geopolitical actions, such as Trump's tariffs on Colombia, are directly impacting the food supply chain. These policies disrupt trade, increase costs, and create uncertainty in global markets.
4.2 Financial Innovation as a Double-Edged Sword
While financial tools like synthetic covered call ETFs offer opportunities for investors, they do little to address the immediate challenges of the food crisis. In fact, the focus on high-growth sectors like AI and EVs may divert resources away from critical areas like agriculture.
Chapter 5: Strategies for Navigating the Splintered Market and Food Crisis
5.1 Building a Resilient Portfolio
Investors must adopt a forward-looking approach to portfolio management, focusing on sectors and strategies that align with the new market paradigm.
Core Holdings: ETFs focused on high-growth sectors like technology, renewable energy, and EVs.
Speculative Plays: Synthetic covered call ETFs for high-yield income.
Hedging Strategies: Investments in agriculture and food technology to mitigate risks associated with the food crisis.
5.2 Policy Recommendations
Governments must take immediate action to address the food crisis and its underlying causes.
Strengthening Regulatory Agencies: Restoring funding and authority to the CDC and FDA to ensure food safety and public health.
Investing in Agriculture: Supporting sustainable farming practices and modernizing the food supply chain.
Addressing Climate Change: Implementing policies to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the impact of extreme weather events.
Conclusion: A Fractured Future
The global market and society are at a crossroads, shaped by the dual forces of technological innovation and systemic fragility. While AI and EVs offer hope for a brighter future, the looming food crisis threatens to plunge the world into chaos. Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach that balances innovation with sustainability, ensuring that the benefits of progress are shared by all.
$SPY All-Time Highs in FocusLooking ahead to this new trading week, I’m interested in seeing some shorts come in. We’ve returned to all-time highs , but the climb faced minimal resistance—aside from some signs of pushback on Friday.
I’ll be very cautious about entering any long positions unless we see price action consolidating or trading closer to the 610-612 levels . Until then, I’ll remain hesitant and look for more clarity in the market’s direction.
What’s your take on this setup? Drop your insights below!
SPY Analysis: Testing All-Time Highs with Weakening Momentum Testing / Surpassed ATH
MACD 4 HR Crossing down at red arrow.
RSI 4 HR Crossing down from overbought
1 HR MFI dropping
1 HR RSI dropping down.
MACD No signal.
30 Minute MACD looks to be losing momentum downward possible reversal back towards the upside
30 Minute RSI at 50 no potential for upside or downside this is nuetral.
30 minute MFI is still high but not overbought could be a downward from.
15 Minute MACD Crossing up could signal a move upward
15 Minute RSI was close to oversold and is now pushing up.
15 Minute MFI was close to oversold now pushing back up
5 Minute 50/100 EMA: 50 EMA crossing into 100 EMA could be signaling a short but
price has bounced on it a few times now.
Despite the short-term signs of a bounce (15-minute and 5-minute signals), the broader timeframes point to weakening momentum and a lack of sustained buying pressure. The 4-hour MACD and RSI both turning downward from overbought conditions align with a potential reversal. As SPY fails to gain further traction above the ATH, it could start to roll over, targeting lower levels.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $590 aligns with a key support zone, making it a logical target for a pullback. Additionally, any increase in volatility (VIX) or further weakness in momentum indicators would likely accelerate the move toward this level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: The ATH and current price zone (~607–610).
Support: The $600 psychological level and $590 Fibonacci retracement.
I’ll be monitoring the price action closely for confirmation of this bearish thesis. If SPY loses the short-term EMAs and momentum fails to recover, a move to $590 becomes increasingly likely. Let me know your thoughts.
Spy - Path to 666Hello Traders,
At 2008 bottom the market hit 666 on the SPX. So now I am thinking 6666 on the SPX and 666 on SPY is like a magnet. Well I used the Fractal from end of last year and using fibs to make sure the levels were a match and guess what..It ends close to 666 in April this year. I have other things pointing me to April as a "top". So anyways lets see how this plays out.. According to the fractal we will go up till Wednesday (MAG Earnings and Fed Decision) then have a small drop before continuing higher.
Is 666 the final top? Well one one hand it would make sense as we are getting long in the tooth and for some reason they love that number. On the other hand I have cycles that are pointing to one more cycle later this year into summer.
But I would say if we do head up to that number I would be cautious around there and put more into cash incase we get a decent pullback so you can buy things when they get cheaper.
I was one of the few calling for more up when everyone was seeing a Head and Shoulder and saying we topped in December. I knew we had a least one more bull cycle if not two. Here we are at ATH again .. lets see how this plays out.
Why Blind Index Investing Could Be Costing You Thousands?!Index-based investing has been one of the most popular ways to grow a long-term portfolio for decades. Today, it has become even more accessible and favored, offering a safer foundation for investing and generally carrying lower risk compared to portfolios composed of individual stocks. For someone like me, a technical analyst, index investing isn't exactly an adrenaline rush. Under societal pressure, I decided to test a few hacks and dive deeper into it ;)
I set out to compare three of the most popular U.S. index ETFs – SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), and IWM (Russell 2000) – and analyze how to implement a brief technical analysis into index selection could influence long-term results. Starting in 2005, I "invested" $1,000 every quarter, completing a total of 81 test purchases. Each time, I selected the index that technical analysis suggested was in the strongest position.
If done strictly and consistently, there were often situations where all three indices had just reached their all-time highs. In those moments, I had to make a choice. Technical analysis is not just about drawing lines on a chart – experience, market intuition, and behavioral patterns of the price play a big role here.
My Test and Strategy
The goal was to compare the following three U.S. index ETFs:
- SPY (S&P 500)
- QQQ (Nasdaq 100)
- IWM (Russell 2000)
Test conditions:
- Start date: 2005
- Investment period: 81 quarters
- Mandatory quarterly investment: $1,000
- Index selection: Based on technical analysis and market intuition.
Distribution of trades during the test period:
- SPY: 35 times
- QQQ: 31 times
- IWM: 15 times
The chart illustrates SPY, QQQ, and Russell with blue arrows marking purchase points.
Results of the Experiment
Performance of my strategy:
- +344% return
- Invested: $81,000
- Final value: $360,000
Comparison indices (each quarter regular purchases):
- SPY: +233% (final value: $272,000)
- QQQ: +579% (final value: $552,000)
- IWM: +128% (final value: $186,000)
My strategy outperformed SPY and IWM because I focused on selecting the ETFs in the strongest technical condition at the time. While QQQ delivered higher absolute returns, my diversified approach offered competitive returns with lower risk and more stable outcomes.
Key Takeaways
1. Diversity and Stability: Risk Mitigation and Return Optimization
The goal wasn't just maximum returns but also reducing risk and adopting a smarter approach. While QQQ had the highest returns, remember that it is heavily concentrated in the technology sector, making it riskier. Back in 2005, it wouldn't have been easy to predict that QQQ would outperform. A technical analysis strategy allows for risk diversification by choosing the strongest index at any given time, delivering significant returns while maintaining diversity and stability.
2. Thoughtful Regularity Outperforms Blind Regularity
Strict quarterly investing avoids the biggest mistake investors fear – timing the market. Regularity is crucial, but it needs to be thoughtful. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. My strategy allowed selecting the strongest index at each point, yielding significantly better returns.
3. Wrong Index Choice Can Be Costly
Had I chosen only IWM throughout the period, my return would have been just +128%. This clearly shows the importance of not sticking to one index but instead evaluating regularly to find the one with the greatest potential at any given time.
How to Choose the Best Index: Follow my Newsletter to Guide You
One of many of the topics of this newsletter (You will find it here, in the profile section, visiting my "website") will be sharing my monthly and quarterly top lists of indices, making regular purchases easier for you. The test proved that sticking to one index isn’t the best way forward – but which one should you choose? That’s where the monthly top list comes in.
I firmly believe this strategy and approach have significant potential to help investors make smarter and more confident decisions. That’s why I’m starting a newsletter, where one of the many topics will be sharing this list regularly:
- The technically strongest indices for investing.
- Explanations of why a particular index is technically more attractive than others.
Conclusion
My research proves that technical analysis and understanding of charts can be powerful tools for long-term index investing. Regularity, fact-based decisions, and risk diversification help achieve optimal results.
Your portfolio deserves better decisions. Don’t waste time analyzing indices yourself.
All the best,
Vaido
This is a no Brainer for you noobs - check itWhat up? how is everyone doing the almost end of January w a new Admin?
one things i do wish is that Robinhood will collab with @TradingView does anyone have info on this? Why are the holding back?
follow along...
i swing only SPY 500 options- 7 years in training, a year before the covid 19.
i buy calls or buy puts overnight, easy-
up or down?
1. The week, before this weeks volume was pretty decent I must say.- this held us up.
2. I do like continuation patterns.
3. $ 605.00 is in the cards for next week of 1/27 - 1/31
4. With the month closing on Friday the 31, we may even see a low touching that $ 600.00
5. Therefore we are looking for bounces on either side.
6. I kind of like $ 600.00 to confirm there are buyers on that area of support. For our continuation of an upmarket trend.
7. Although volume and candlestick are key to watch around 605. ⛳️
do we get a birdie or a par this week? --
-
leave a comment or evaluation below.
20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?Hello Friends!
This is a 3 Week chart of SPY, showing you the past 20 years of price action... From the 2001 dot com bubble, to the 2022 recession, to today in 2023
I decided to explore the possibility of the bottom being in and developed a thesis based on this
Taking a look at the 3 Week MACD, we can see multiple golden crosses as highlighted by the YELLOW CIRCLES
Each and every single time the 3 Week MACD Golden Cross has occurred... It has triggered a multi year long bull cycle for the S&P 500 as shown via historical analysis.
The ONLY TIME this led to a fakeout was during the 2001 Dot Com Bubble era... From Approximately October 1, 2001 to February 14, 2002, SPY was rallying and shows signs of tremendous bullish action. However, turmoil came back in the Bears were in control once again.
The only reason markets continue to crash after February of 2002 was because the price had moved below the 50 WMA as indicated by the giant arrows
Due to weakness in SPY's price action during 2000 - 2002, we were never able to recover ABOVE the 50 WMA and crashed further as a result UNTIL the RSI BOTTOMED below 30
Fast forward to the 2010s, looking at 3 Week price action from December 2011 to the 1st half of 2020::::
You can see golden crosses on the RSI & MACD correlate immensely with multi year bullish price action
And I'd like to come to today as an example...
As of February 16, 2023, SPY is currently holding above the 50WMA level of approximately $401
if we can close above here on March 6, 2023. We will usher in the next Multi year bull run!
We are seeing welcome signs of a bullish reversal taking place, such as the 3 Week RSI continuing to show STRONG signs of bullish divergence playing out since May 31, 2022
The 3 Week RSI Golden Cross in combination with the 3 Week MACD likely also about to close a Golden Cross shows that this market is strong, the bulls remain in control for now, despite these turbulent times
Now I am no financial advisor, but my best advice right now is the following::: hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!
20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN? (Pt. 2)The Sequel to one of my most famous TradingView Editors' Picks ideas: "20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?"
In this video, I revisit the same SPY chart & go thru comments from the original post, which is very telling of what sentiment was like back in early 2023.
Which looking back, that was the very beginning of this multi year bull market that we are currently in
ORIGINAL POST: 20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?
Where's The Top?Good evening traders,
If you're anything like me, you've probably been asking yourself for a few days now when SPY will top out? So here is my technical analysis with a breakdown of my thoughts and predictions for the next few upcoming weeks.
First and foremost, Trump took office on Jan 20th. The "Trump Pump" is alive and well, obviously. I'm starting to think the market was being retrained from a breakout under the Biden Administration, though we saw over a 25% return YTD.
Side note: This year is projected to do 3% on the S&P 500.
With that said, it is the S&P 500. The 500 largest companies in the United States. As Tech and AI take flight into 2025, it can only be assumed that large companies that make up the S&P 500 would be adopting these new resources in order to help them turn profits.
What does this mean for retail traders?
To put it simply, the trend is your friend, until it's not. These index funds, such as SPY have consumed bears for almost a consecutive 10 days, following a parallel channel towards a high target/trend line around the area of 623-626.
Until this channel of mayhem is broken, SPY is bullish. This is no man's land and we could change direction at any given moment. The lines of resistance are as follows: .. .. .. ..
Thanks for reading,
SPY BULLISH ALT WAVE COUNT The chart posted is MY ONLY BULLISH WAVE COUNT at this TIME . I AM 120 % long in The MONEY PUTS as the Bearish count is this was a wave B rally wave 3 of 5 under the bullish count and wave c of the bearish count end within 5 sp points so Both are valid . We have a major bearish signal in the a/d line . Best of trades WAVETIMER
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for Today & TomorrowThe expected move for today is between 606 and 613 and that is a .54% move today and the only level we have in our trading range today is that 35 EMA you could see it’s been a pretty support all week and then we have that up gap from This Wednesday, which could give some added support at the bottom of the trading range. Monday’s contract at the bottom takes us in the middle of that gap and with how extremely overbought we are that 50 day moving average could be a really great target for next week.
META - Technical Analysis for Trading & GEX Option Analysis1. Technical Analysis for Trading
* Trend & Price Action: META is showing bullish momentum, breaking previous resistance levels. The price is forming a rising channel and steadily trending upwards.
* Support Levels:
* $612.50: Immediate support marked as the HVL.
* $600: Strong psychological support near the 3rd PUT Wall.
* $588.55: The lowest support visible on the chart.
* Resistance Levels:
* $637.40: The current price is testing this resistance near the highest positive NETGEX wall.
* $650: Next critical resistance level with GEX influence.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Positive histogram with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming upward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought levels indicate caution for short-term pullbacks but align with the ongoing bullish trend.
* Volume: Increasing volume supports the upward movement, validating the breakout above $630.
2. GEX Option Analysis
* Gamma Exposure Levels:
* $637.50 (Highest positive NETGEX/Resistance): Strong gamma resistance; a breakout above this level could trigger a further rally to $650.
* $630 (2nd CALL Wall): Previous resistance now acting as support, indicating bullish sentiment among option traders.
* $600 (PUT Wall): Minor support indicating limited bearish pressure below this level.
* Option Insights:
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 48.9, indicating slightly elevated IV compared to historical levels.
* IVx (Implied Volatility Index): 47.2, suggesting moderate IV with potential for significant moves.
* Call-to-Put Ratio (Call$ %): 38.5% of gamma exposure is call-focused, reflecting bullish dominance in the options market.
3. Strategy & Action Plan
* Bullish Trade Setup:
* Entry: Near $630 or on a breakout above $637.50 with confirmation.
* Target: $650 and potentially $660.
* Stop-Loss: Below $625.
* Bearish Trade Setup (Pullback Scenario):
* Entry: On rejection from $637.50 with confirmation.
* Target: $612.50.
* Stop-Loss: Above $640.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing.
In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks.
Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks.
BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern.
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY January 23, 2025AMEX:SPY January 23, 2025
15 Minutes
The consecutive gap ups cannot sustain.
A pull back is required around 598-602 levels over the next 3 trading days for the moving average to converge.
I will have a contra setup to short 607-607 levels for 602 levels for the moment.
Usually in 15 minutes chart a difference over 15$ between 200 and 9.21 average results in sideways or a pull back.