Chat, Are we Cooked?We had a very similar post-Covid run up all the way before breaking in January 2022.
We saw a similar run up since that time.
Round 2, or just an overreaction?
SPY trade ideas
$SPY Bounce to 590s?Hey everyone, it's your boy pic. AMEX:SPY looks primed for a typical ABC correction to around 590 going into the second half of March. Chart lines up with NextPivot Indicator and FIB levels just as pretty as you please. Nice look with clear stops. Good luck!
$SPY Marcg 25, 2025AMEX:SPY Marcg 25, 2025
15 Minutes.
No trade for me yesterday as gap up and had no chance to enter.
For the rise 561.48 to 575.17 i am expecting a retrace to 566-568 levels as too far away from movoing averages.
On 60-minute time frame for the fall 597.37 to 549.68 4SPY has retraced between .5 to .618 levels.
So, at the moment I expect upside to be capped at 579-580 levels being .618 levels.
So, I will short around that levels or buy around 569 levels for the day.
SPY at Critical Levels! Decision Point for Bulls and BearsHere’s a clear breakdown for SPY based on the 1-hour chart and Options GEX:
📈 Technical Analysis (TA):
* SPY recently broke structure bullishly (BOS) at ~$573, confirming bullish momentum.
* Immediate Support identified around $570–$573, marking a potential bullish reversal zone (green zone).
* Strong bearish reversal zone detected at $550–$560 (red zone), critical if the market pulls back significantly.
* MACD and Stoch RSI are indicating potential weakening momentum; watch closely for consolidation or slight retracement.
📊 GEX & Options Insights:
* Highest negative NETGEX / PUT support at $560 level. This area is crucial to watch for downside protection.
* Immediate strong CALL resistance at the $575–$580 area, acting as a ceiling for bullish momentum.
* IV Rank moderate at 23.2%, indicating balanced option premium pricing.
* PUT/CALL ratio balanced (PUT$ 50.7%), indicating mixed market sentiment.
💡 Trade Recommendations:
* Bullish Scenario: Confirm a hold above the green reversal zone ($573) and target CALL resistance near $580 initially, with a potential extension to $585–$590 if bullish momentum continues. Keep tight stops around $570.
* Bearish Scenario: Consider bearish positions if SPY breaks below $570 decisively, targeting the significant bearish reversal zone at $560.
* Neutral Strategy: Iron Condors or credit spreads between the $560–$580 range, benefiting from current balanced IV environment.
🛑 Risk Management:
Given current volatility at critical decision points, manage your risks carefully, and consider tighter stops and smaller position sizing.
Trade smart and safe!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
S&P 500 - New Lower HigherContinue to see the S&P 500 heading lower.
Make a new lower higher this week.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 20 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if yall havent
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
$SPY March 25, 20252nd Post.
This chart shows oscillator divergence in LL and 100% extension around 580.
Hence this also supports the previous post numbers of 579-580 at the moment for the day.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🛍️ Amazon Spring Sale Impact 🛍️: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale is underway, and increased consumer activity could lift retail sector sentiment this week. Watch for broader impacts on e-commerce competitors and discretionary stocks.
🇬🇧📉 UK Growth Outlook Cut 📉: Ahead of the UK's Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise growth forecasts downward. While not U.S.-centric, weaker UK economic momentum may influence broader global risk sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🏠 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET):
Forecast: +4.4% YoY
Previous: +4.5% YoY
A gauge of housing market strength based on home price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas.
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
Measures consumers’ outlook on business and labor conditions. A key sentiment driver.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 679K annualized
Previous: 657K
Tracks the number of newly constructed homes sold. Sensitive to rates and affordability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
* SPY/SPX Update 3/24*Hello degenerates,
I am going to try and post daily updates on SPY/SPX to help me with my analysis and preparation for next day trades.
If you follow my analysis, you are aware that we have 2 possible scenarios being played out but I'll be using the bullish scenario for this analysis. This doesn't mean that the bearish scenario is invalidated.
As we all know, price is now moving towards our W3 target at $580. If you haven't gotten in a play yet, I might have some good news: We might be able to have an opportunity to buy in the move tomorrow. I do have to let you know that it will be EXTREMELY RISKY.
BUY IN OPPORTUNITY:
- As you can see in the image, the close we have today kinda imitates the close we had on March 14th.
- If you zoom in, you can see that price closed with a strong rejection and is trailing back under the previous high of the day. You can also see the volume peak that happened in both days which means that sellers stepped in when price hit that level.
- I can see price opening around the $572 range and possibly even testing the 570 breakout since it is now a Whale Target(WT).
- After that, I do believe we will continue with a strong impulse to finish W3.
- On the 1Month Volume profile, you can see that we are in the range of a Volume peak, so I do want to see this level hold support for a continuation towards $580.
- You can also see RSI giving us Lower Highs while price is on Higher highs, and MACD histogram below zero. This means that the SPY/SPX is oversold and needs a little breather. An RSI dip towards 60 will be a good level for a bounce to continue to uptrend.
- In the 5D Volume Profile, you can see that we hit a volume peak and got rejected, and if we can't hold the 572 level, a dip to 570 is where we will find support.
I DO HAVE TO REMIND YOU , during strong trends dips and corrections can just be disregarded (shoutout to my mentor for passing down the knowledge.) This is just a possible scenario that might happen tomorrow due to how we closed today. Buyers are really aggressive and we like it that way, so if you can't find a buy opportunity, don't sweat it. Save your capital and wait for another opportunity.
This is my analysis for today, the main purpose was to find a trade opportunity for tomorrow and share the insight with you. Let me know what you think about it, and how I can make it better!
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
Mag 7 Forecast | TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages.
🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Monday, March 24:
🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭:
Forecast: 51.5
Previous: 52.7
This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️:
Forecast: 679,000 annualized units
Previous: 657,000
This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market.
📅 Wednesday, March 26:
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️:
Forecast: -1.0%
Previous: 3.2%
This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
📅 Thursday, March 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 223,000
This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.
📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈:
Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth
Previous: 2.3%
This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:
Forecast: 1.0%
Previous: -4.6%
This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.
📅 Friday, March 28:
💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵:
Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous: 0.9%
Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous: -0.2%
This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior.
💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹:
Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:
Previous: 592 rigs
This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
* SPY: ELLIOT WAVES BEARISH BIAS *As promised, I am now sharing you what I can see happening on SPY/SPX on the bearish point of view. I do recommend for you to check out my Bullish analysis post that I did on Friday in case you get confused: ( )
As you can see in the main image of this post, in the bearish bias I am considering this dip from last month to be Wave A of an ABC correction(Green). In this correction, Wave A has 5 sub-waves(Orange), Wave B has 3 sub-waves(Pink), and Wave C have 5 sub-waves as well.
- We are now in Wave B of this correction, which retraces to 38-50% or more.
As you can see in the picture above, we have completed sub-waves A and B and are now beginning sub-wave C of Wave B.
Weekly Chart EMAs:
- In the picture above you can see how price was able to keep itself above the 50EMA(Yellow) and is now turning to a little pump that will target the area where the 20EMA(Orange). If price gets rejected by the 20EMA, it will continue down to complete Wave C of the pattern, which confirms the bearish scenario.
- Once that rejection happens, if price breaks through the 50EMA line, our next support level will be at the 100EMA(Red), which is right in between the bottom of Wave A and or Wave C target(161.8% of Wave A).
I do believe that having a correction is the intent of the current government. Their intention might be to cool down from the growth that was happening during the last years of the last administration. By doing that, the markets would be set for at least 4 more years of healthy growth, institutions and new participants will have another chance at accumulating in order to participate in this next economic boom, and Trump will have a chance at showing the real results of his policies.
At the end of the day, I do have to remind you all that I am just an observer of the market. My analysis is not a prediction of the future, they are just my attempt to be prepare to the different scenarios my money losing journey will take me while I learn the wisdom of the waves.
$SPY $SPX OLD CHART BAR PATTERN COVID CRASH NOW!!!!Holy crap.... I just came across an old chart and literally in the nick of timeI tell you. All I'm going to say is... I'm a pattern chart trader and this is the COVID bar pattern attached to our daily from like a year ago almost and I loaded up an old layout to do work and boom... here we are... Good LUCK ... Not sure what the trigger will be but we are here.
$SPY March 24, 2025AMEX:SPY March 24, 2025
15 Minutes.
Gap down open on 21st was not strong as gap was covered by close of day.
The fib move for downside was achieved by gap down hence no trade.
Now for the fall 570.57 to 558.03 566 is level to watch.
For the rise 558.72 to 564.89 561-562 is number to watch.
So, a short at 565-566 will have a target 562 -563 levels.
I will wait for Monday open before entering a trade.
SPY Trend Analysis
SPY has been in a long-term uptrend , with two major corrections (2022 & 2023) that touched the primary trend line before recovering.
The most recent bullish channel (late 2023 - early 2024) has broken downward , indicating a short-term pullback .
SPY remains bullish in the long-term as long as it stays above the primary trend line (~$500).
Short-term correction might continue toward $550 before resuming the uptrend.
⚠️ Disclaimer : This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
$SPY Options IV low, consolidation at around $573 CoPImplied IV for options is low, and unless somthing big happens I think SPY will continue to consolidate to $573 Close of Play today.
$SPY Bullish setup with 200ma in viewLooking at multiple time frames but w/ a special focus on intraday time frames and their relationship to the 200ma.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 21 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if yall havent
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
SPY Primary Trend is still UP
The recent breakdown from the steeper uptrend could lead to a pullback to $550-$530.
If SPY holds above $550, it may recover towards $580-$600.
A break below $530 could signal a deeper correction.
As long as SPY holds the primary trend line (~$520), the bullish uptrend remains intact.
If it reclaims $600+, it could aim for new all-time highs above $620+.
SPY'S FIRST BUY SIGNAL SINCE MARCH 26, 2020 CONFIRMED!!!In this video where back on AMEX:SPY 2 day chart with an update on our legendary buy signal that printed for the first time since March2020
* SPY : Elliot Waves Bullish Bias *I don't care if you are a bull that believes this is the beginning of price recovery or a bear that believes that this is just a slight retracement to gear up for the major downtrend. I am here to show you different possible scenarios during my Elliot Waves learning process.
In the main image of this post, you can see that bulls have completed a 5 impulse Wave 1 and have now completed a ABC flat correction Wave 2. If I'm correct, we are now in the beginning of Wave 3 with a price target 581-587.
Now lets take a closer look to where we are:
- From the 5 Impulse waves that make W3, we are now in Wave 1 which also has 5 impulses and $570 for its target.
- Zooming in closer, you can see that we have just completed the first wave and are now making the second wave with a price target between 561.92(full length of wave A) and 559 (23% Fib LVL).
- After this correction wave is completed, I expect us to have a strong momentum towards W3 price target at 566, a quick and sharp correction for W4, and a last impulse towards our first main target that will be testing or possibly explode through $570.
- After we hit our first wave target, I do expect price to consolidate for a bit, hopefully holding the 570 level, and prepare for another explosive wave towards 578 and then our 581-587 area target. to complete the this 5 impulse wave.
* It is important to remind you that this is the scenario I see happening on the idea that SPY has completed its correction and is now aiming to continue our uptrend towards new ATH. For this to happen, I would prefer to see this Wave 3 blasting through its price target and possibly testing 590 and above, leaving little space for a quick W4 correction and then proceeding to levels near ATH. In the main picture, I highlighted $597 as a level to confirm a bullish this bullish theory. *
I will later on post my bearish view on SPY just so you don't get too comfortable. We can't leave your therapist without a job.
And at the end of the day, keep in mind that we are out here to observe the market and take advantage of its ups and downs. Manage your risks, ride the waves, and let the gods of the charts dictate where price go.
