Bulls and Bears Oh myhmmm up to test resistance. Possibly fill the 550ish gap if it goes a little wild... head and shoulders also on the table
SPY trade ideas
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇪🇺 ECB Expected to Cut Rates Amid Trade Pressures: The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% during its meeting on April 17. This expected move aims to counteract the economic impact of recent U.S. tariffs and a strengthening euro, which have contributed to disinflationary pressures in the eurozone.
📉 German Inflation Decline Supports Easing: Germany's inflation rate fell more than expected in March, dropping to 2.3% from 2.6% in February. This decline, driven by falling oil prices and a sluggish economy, bolsters the case for further interest rate cuts by the ECB.
🤖 AI Enhances ECB Policy Predictions: A study by the German Institute for Economic Research indicates that artificial intelligence significantly improves the accuracy of forecasting ECB monetary policy decisions. By analyzing ECB communications, AI models can better anticipate policy shifts.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 17:
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.420 million
Previous: 1.501 million
Indicates the number of new residential construction projects begun, reflecting housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: 223,000
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Down likely continuesWe had a short squeeze this morning, but the wave now looks like a C down to 521 or 512 on AMEX:SPY
Spy Target $500I'm Basically Taking A Swing Trade All The Way Down To the $500 Target with a stop loss of about $545ish most likely being as stubborn as I am Probably Load up more at that price lol, if we even see that price to be honest but in all reality my absolute Stop out will be $547-$549. I Will be updating this post throughout the week... And if you need more advice Ill be here as always and check out some of my New Free Indicators on TradingView to help maximize your returns and as always Goodluck and safe trades
BEAR TRAP in SPY?🐻 BEAR TRAP in SPY?
After a sharp correction, SPY is showing a possible Bear Trap formation — right at the zone where the market often catches short sellers off guard.
📊 The pattern resembles the "First Sentiment Extreme" > Shakeout > Bear Trap phase from the classic market psychology cycle (see inset chart).
🔍 Supporting signs:
RSI bouncing off oversold territory (currently at 49.32)
MACD showing a bullish crossover forming
A strong bounce after a panic flush
If this is indeed a bear trap... 📈 we could be at the early stage of renewed optimism. The next few candles are crucial — confirmation could ignite a sharp reversal.
🧠 Don’t chase. Wait for confirmation. But stay alert.
Bulls agree, Bears argueIf you look historically at price volatility, what you see is that bear markets make big candles, while bull markets churn out a lot of small ones. Even though a rebound seems imminent, don't overlook the fact that the candles, relatively speaking, are still big.
SPY Wave structureIf SPY sustains above 480 on monthly close, we can consider it as end of wave 4 and the beginning of wave 5. 640 will act as a resistance and once 640 is broken, SPY target would be 695-740 zone where SPY will complete its wave structure. The move from 640 to 700 is most likely retail fomo. Good zone for booking short term profits and for the stocks bought at end of wave 4
$SPY - Recap of April 14 2025
Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and we also gapped right to the top of the bear gap (always considered resistance and strengthened by the downward momentum of the 30min 200.
We did see resistance with those combined bearish levels and we brought is back down to the middle, closed the gap from open and took it back to the 30min 200MA and got pushed back at close.
This chart setup was bearish today - even though we closed green - how? The 30in 200MA pointing down. The bear gap under that. And the 35EMA trading Under the 30min 200MA.
It was an easy trading day and just looking at the momentum you could feel that price was going to stay in the center of the implied move. At least I mentioned that in last night’s video.
Excellent day. How did you guys do??
SPY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY went up again
To retest a wide horizontal
Resistance level of 551.00$
And as the political situation
Remains unstable we are
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY at a Crossroad: Gamma Tug of War Into Next Week🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone.
* Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls.
* Support Zones:
* $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL)
* $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades)
* Resistance Levels:
* $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top)
* $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall)
* Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward.
* RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues.
🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX Insights
* Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics.
* Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone.
* Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection.
* PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526.
💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If SPY holds above $534-$536:
* Entry: $536 breakout
* Target: $548 → $555 → $560
* Stop: Below $526
* Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads.
Bearish Case:
If SPY loses $534 with momentum:
* Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540
* Target: $526 → $509
* Stop: Above $540
* Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week.
🧠 My Take
SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
$SPY Recap of April 16 2025Awesome drop all the way down to the bottom of the implied move.
The spreads I suggested in last night's video filled at the end of the day and closed up 100% 🙌🏼
Let's do it again tomorrow!!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-14 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will move in a moderate upward price trend.
Although I don't expect anything huge today, I do believe the EPP structures/layers support this upward price move and that we'll see the SPY attempt to move back towards/above 550 over time.
The QQQ will likely follow the SPY higher over the next 5+ days.
Don't get too excited about this upward price move because it is structurally moving to setup a PEAK that will transition into a downtrend near April 22-25. This peak will create a downward price flag (a new inverted EPP) structure that will assist in developing a new sideways price structure carrying into June/July.
In other words, it looks like we are trapped between 480-585 on the SPY, and we will likely stay within that wide consolidation range for another 2-3 months.
Gold should attempt to rally this week, trying to break above $3300. I believe this is a critical level for Gold and also presents a breakaway level for Silver near $33.00
Bitcoin has moved into APEX VOLATILITY and will continue to trap BUYERS into believing BTCUSD is breaking away from the consolidation range. This is a BULL TRAP.
I believe BTCUSD will ROLL OVER within about 4-5 days - setting up a big breakdown move as the SPY/QQQ also roll downward in about 5+ days.
We still continue to see volatility and sideways price action. Still lots of opportunities for skilled traders.
Get Some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Non-US ETFs outperform during trade warNon-US markets are showing resilience during this year's remarkable volatility.
While NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY are down more than 10%, AMEX:VEA (non-U.S. Developed Markets ETF) is up nearly 5%...
AMEX:IEMG (tracking Emerging Markets) is negative so far, but less severe than others. Will Trump's volatile trade war lead to further outflow from the U.S. financial system?
Meanwhile, gold has been rallying to record highs as the world seeks an alternative to the dollar.
A break back above 530 could trigger a move toward 550Look for a strong move higher if the market breaks back above 530. Currently falling on below average volume and could see the market recover abruptly.
SPY LONG SET UP(BUY THE DIP)Entry 1 $500.00
Entry 2 $460.00
Stop loss $440.00
Take profit 1- $550.00
(Close 25%)
Take profit 2- $600.00
(Close 50%)
Take profit 3-$650.00
(Close 75%)
Take profit 4-$700.00
(Close 100%)
SPY T&A Patterns and breaks I see the INV C&H formation, but I am still leaning bullish, watch for the confirmations and the Gap fill. News will be key!!!!
$SPY - RECAP APRIL 15 2025When someone tells me TA doesn’t work I just laugh and laugh. Ok, if you say so.
Look at that 30min 200MA today and yesterday. It just kept pushing price lower. Honestly quite beautiful actually.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 16, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 PM ET, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. Additionally, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at 12:00 PM ET, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 7:00 PM ET.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Measures the total receipts of retail stores, reflecting consumer spending trends.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: +0.7%
Indicates the output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 37
Previous: 39
Assesses the confidence of homebuilders in the market for newly built single-family homes.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
The Oompa Loompas are here to WORKI get it, you're scared....But listen up, by June/July, we will be at all time highs. What Trump gave, was a signal that he wont let the stock market sink....To him, the stock market is the economy. It is not though, but to him, thats what it is. That was enough for wall street to buy buy buy.....knowing that Trump will do what he needs to do so the stock market doesnt collapse.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 15, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Bank Earnings: Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are set to report Q1 earnings before the market opens. BAC is expected to post an EPS of $0.81, while Citigroup anticipates $1.84. Investors will closely watch these reports for insights into the financial sector's health amid ongoing market volatility.
💊 Healthcare and Consumer Goods Reports: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is also scheduled to release its earnings, with forecasts indicating an EPS of $2.57. These results will provide a glimpse into the performance of the healthcare and consumer goods sectors.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
🗣️ Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks (7:10 PM ET):
Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Resistance coming upVolume and trend analysis showing key levels to watch. But in this market single chart analysis is not enough. I look at Dollar Index, Gold, 10Y Treasury Bonds. All indicate low confidence in USA economy. Unless these improve I will remain bearish even if SPX,SPY breaks to the upside.
But most likely the markets will reverse at max resistance, as the hedge funds who are under liquidity pressure will start selling again
DID THE S&P 500 BOTTOM? MASSIVE STOCK MARKET RALLY INCOMING????Our indicator just printed a super rare signal on the weekly chart, let's discuss what this means for the future of the stock market and why this may be one of the best buying opportunities for the long term.
Because historically, this indicator prints green when it's been the best time to buy to prepare for the next 5-10 years of bullish price action
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
