Technical Analysis Idea for SPYChart Pattern Identification:
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
Left Shoulder: Look for a decline followed by a minor rally, forming the left shoulder.
Head: A further decline creating a lower trough, forming the head.
Right Shoulder: A subsequent rally and decline forming a higher low, creating the right shoulder.
Neckline: Draw a trendline connecting the peaks of the left shoulder and the head. This line acts as a resistance level.
Entry and Exit Strategy:
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position when the price breaks above the neckline with strong volume, confirming the pattern.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the right shoulder to manage risk.
Target Price: Measure the distance from the head to the neckline and project it upwards from the breakout point to set a target price.
Squeeze Momentum Indicator:
Confluence Signal: Use the squeeze momentum indicator to confirm the breakout. Look for a shift from red to green bars, indicating increasing bullish momentum.
Momentum Confirmation: Ensure the squeeze dots turn from black to green, signaling the end of a consolidation phase and the start of a potential upward move.
Additional Considerations:
Volume Analysis: Confirm the breakout with a significant increase in volume, supporting the validity of the pattern.
Market Context: Consider broader market trends and news that might impact SPY's price movement. PYTH:SPY AMEX:SPY
SPY trade ideas
12/30 Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Short week from Xmas leaves us with an inside weekly setup to start the new year. The way 2-1-X and 3-1-X setups (Inside bar setups) work, is they either confirm what happened previously, or negate it. In this specific scenario on the weekly, we have a large red week of selling (2D, followed by a pretty neutral inside week (1). Next week either goes 2D, confirming the selling from the previous week and therefore showing evidence of continuation lower, or we negate that selling by making a higher high (2U) and looking to reclaim the highs from the big red week from when FOMC occurred. We can't predict which way the next week will go, but we can at the very least imagine what has to occur for both bull and bear scenarios to be successful. Simply put, above last weeks high means we are targeting the weekly high from the week prior to last week. Below last weeks low means we are targeting the weekly low from the week prior to last week. Break either side and come back into last weeks range means we are failing to confirm/negate what the signal is indicating, and then we target the other side. EX: Monday pokes above last weeks high but closes red. We then would look to engulf the week and create a 1-3 combo on the weekly. This week should be similar to last week, meaning it may be tougher to trade since we have a few negative considerations and less ideal conditions to trade.
Considerations for the upcoming week: For starters, we have another short week with new years day on Wednesday being a full day closure for the markets. Short week means less time for weekly candles to form, and therefore, likely chance of less volume to occur compared to normal weeks. Secondly, its the new year! This means we see all new candles on every timeframe up to the yearly chart. So, new Year, Quarter, Month, Week, Day, Hour, etc. Because of this, we will see issues with decoupling. This means the Year, Quarter, and Month will all be the same exact candle until we get to the second month and quarter of the year. Because the week starts in 2024 and ends in 2025, the week will be decoupled, but the M, Q and Y will not. Again, not the biggest issues ever, but just considerations to have in mind.
Weekly Watchlist: (Side Note: I have added all of my charts for individual tickers mentioned for further clarity on what I am seeing with these setups)
Bullish:
NASDAQ:MRVL - 3-1-2U W to confirm bright green M, Y
NASDAQ:AVGO - 2-1-2U W to confirm FTFC Up. Relative strength. 4HR 2-1-2U and 1HR 3-2U for Intraday entries Monday
Bearish:
NASDAQ:SMCI - Shooter 2U W to confirm failed 2U month. Super nice Daily BF
NYSE:AI - 2-1-2D W to trigger Shooter failed 2U M. Gorgeous monthly Broadening Formation.
NASDAQ:MSTR - 3-1-2D W. BTC with a weak setup on the major TFs. Looking to capitalize through MSTR and other names in that space
NYSE:BRK.B - Shooter 3 D. Weekly 2-2U too weak to hit magnitude last week. Month is 3-1 but big red currently. May be early on this but with similar setups in the Financial industry, this is one I want to watch.
NASDAQ:AMD - Hammer revstrat D to trigger Weekly 2-1-2U at Monthly Exhaustion level. Yearly has a nasty bearish revstrat setup forming, but if we are just daytrading this, it looks good for an exhaustion play intraweek. Otherwise will be watching all next year for that Y revstrat to play out
Neutral:
NYSE:SHOP - 3-1 W. Month Failing 2U.
NASDAQ:NVDA : Currently Shooter 2U W. Normally this is just bearish, but the 2W chart can go hammer 1-2-2U, and M is 2D but close to open meaning it is failing that downside signal. I could see this going either way, but its such an interesting setup that I wanted to include it.
SpyI'll be going over
QQQ
Es
Nq
NYA
And. A few major tech sectors
Soxx (Chips)
XLK (AAPL , Msft)
XLC (Meta, Googl)
Let's start with the TVC:NYA
So if you've , notice for the entire month of Dec , anything other than tech stocks straight nose dived .
With Earnings season 2 weeks away and a new presidency let's see how things stand
Here's the weekly chart zoomed out from 2009.. Price tagged the top of that white trend line late Nov
And zoomed in you can see that price broke the uptrend (Yellow channel) from 2023 lows.. now we can grind sideways until some catalyst snatches it back down to support like I circled in green
Either way you're either Neutral or Bearish using this chart.. Every time I look at it I think " this is why buffet is selling"
Now pay attention.. You see how you like to use your indicators for direction? Well I like to use different indexes and sector on top of my indicators to give more confirmation and to you it may seem like a lot but I've been doing this setup for years and it literally takes me about 10-15min to incorporate everything into trade able information..
Last week Thurs A few things hit resistance all at the same time
Look here At ES and NQ
NQ
ES
Now look at XLK and XLC
XLK
XLC
Now , I dropped the ball there because that was obvious short and I should've been loaded short but I think it's so more room to the down side.
You want to know if Spy can go to 620? Only if tech complies.. I've showed you XLK and XLC and they do not look bullish.. from a weekly perspective a lower high was made across the board and that Christmas pop could've just been a dead cat bounce .
Here's QQQ zoomed out
Zoomed in
The area I circled was the fake out when they added PLTR and MSTR to
Qqq
Now notice how we made a higher low but a lower high.. that price action always defines it's self as a pennant
Inside that pennant we could push up 527-528... A break above 531 and we'll melt back to 533-537
Nothing news worth for a big push to to upside except for TSLA car sales after New years
NASDAQ:SOXX
This interesting chart... NASDAQ:AMD and NASDAQ:QCOM have been following this instead of $Smh..
On major trend line support here... Didn't budge much even with all the selling Friday and if you notice neither did AMD.. price is pinned right below it's weekly 20/50ma.. A major move is coming for this sector In the next 2weeks ..
Bears see a H&S
Bulls see a pennant
Even though Im Bearish on most tech, this market can be a scam.. for example, most tech sold off since FOMC but they used AAPL to prop up the market .. Now that AAPL is overbought and due for a correction could they use Soxx to prop? It wouldn't stopped the slide but it would mitigate.. These bulls always find some shit to rotate into 😂.
Lastly here's Spy
Same pennant setup as QQQ
I can see a push back to 600 this week
At 600 we will see if it rejects and Kick off the sell to 566 or break above 602 and push to 608...
Yes it's a pennant
But it can also be a consolidation of a right shoulder for a H&S
Anything above 592 on Monday could be a dip buy for a push back to 600 stop loss below 590... 592-595 is chop
This market goes nowhere without tech though so let's see what happens.
These technicals picture took me 10min to see but 1 hour to type up. Don't troll the comment section, they have stocktwits and Webull for that...
I don't charge shyt and I don't want anything .. Genuine questions always welcome and your technical view is appreciated. Sometimes you may see things I don't 🤝
Technical Analysis Summary: SPY 2hr price actionUSING THE 2 HOUR TIMEFRAME AND FVG. THIS IS MY THOUGHT ON SPY
Current Price: $595.01 (as of the last market close on December 27, 2024)
Recent Price Movement: The stock closed unchanged at $595.01, with a high of $597.7761 and a low of $590.7647.
Technical Indicators:
Oscillators : Predominantly indicate a 'Hold' signal, with the Stochastic Oscillator at 65.39 suggesting a potential overbought condition.
[ b]Average Directional Index (ADX) : At 25.95, indicating a weak trend.
Moving Averages: Present a mixed outlook with short-term averages signaling 'Sell', while longer-term averages suggest 'Buy'.
Chart Pattern: A triangle pattern is present, suggesting a potential bullish breakout towards resistance at $599.89.
News Sentiment
Predominantly Negative: Recent news sentiment is negative, which could exert downward pressure on SPY, potentially hindering bullish momentum.
Trade Idea
Entry Signal: Consider entering at $594.52.
Exit Signal: AMEX:SPY Target an exit at $599.89, aligning with the potential bullish breakout indicated by the triangle pattern.
Conclusion
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) presents a mixed technical picture with a potential bullish breakout if the triangle pattern resolves positively. However, the negative news sentiment could pose a risk to this outlook. This trade idea is suitable for those looking to capitalize on short-term movements, but caution is advised due to the overall uncertainty.
It can't be this easy I'm sure. x3 bear SPYI think the central banks end game is to fortify the USD by 3 main ways.
1. Ramp the markets to insane irrational highs, then have a control crash that increases demand for USD and increasing its value.
2. Create a digital USD (USDC) that can be used by the whole world thus increasing demand and value. Stellar blockchain will be the new monetary infrastructure base layer. Just saw you can by US treasuries on the stellar dex today!
3. Merge Canada's and Mexico economy and replace currencies with USD. I think this plan was in place for a long time, since Canada sold all its gold a number of years ago. Why have gold if you are going to trash your fiat?
All of this will greatly increase the value of the USD. Ultimately though, people will get sick of inflation and buy xlm. :)
And SPY was making a tight ascending triangle, fell out and backtested. Probably too obvious, or is it?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-27-24: Momentum Rally PatternThe last Friday of the year (2024) should show up as a moderate Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ - possibly seeing the SPY target 603 or higher by the end of the day.
Gold and Silver are consolidating into a FLAGGING formation.
Bitcoin is trapped in a consolidation range (right shoulder) pattern that should break downward over the next 5+ days.
This is the time to position your trades for the beginning of 2025 and prepare for moderate volatility as the markets struggle for direction.
The Momentum Rally pattern, today, should present a very clean opportunity for skilled day traders.
I believe a deeper low is likely to setup between January 15 and January 25, 2025. So, be prepared for another roll to the downside after we get past the New Year.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Resistance TestSPY came all the way back up to 602.50 and rejected, but not by much yet. Seems bullish if it reclaims soon, bearish below. Downside targets are the recent bottom around 585 followed by the election gap fill below and then a previous ATH around 565. Upside targets are ATH and beyond.
$SPY December 27, 2024AMEX:SPY December 27, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, 602 gave resistance and AMEX:SPY managed to hold 597-598 yesterday.
I expect a move today after 2 days consolidation.
I will go long above 603 for a 3 to 4 $ move towatds 608-609 levels.
Provided 597 is held today. A close below 597 will result i a 2$ trade. Possible.
I prefer to go long above 602.6 - 603 for the day.
SPY Eyeing a Breakout! Scalping, Swing & Options StrategiesMarket Structure:
* SPY is trending within an ascending wedge pattern, holding above key EMAs (9 and 21), suggesting bullish momentum with caution near resistance levels.
* Current price at $600 indicates a consolidation phase near critical Gamma resistance levels, with the potential for a breakout or pullback.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support Zones:
* $598: Immediate support, aligned with the Gamma 2nd PUT wall.
* $597: Strong support from the Gamma 3rd PUT wall and wedge base.
* Resistance Zones:
* $602: Critical resistance; breaking above signals bullish continuation.
* $604: Next resistance target near Gamma levels and technical confluence.
Indicator Insights:
* MACD: Flat but in bullish territory; watch for crossover to confirm momentum.
* Volume: Declining during consolidation; expect a spike for a breakout or breakdown.
* Options Oscillator: IVR (2.6) indicates low implied volatility, favoring directional plays near GEX levels.
Scalping Strategy:
1. Bullish Setup:
* Enter on a break above $602 with high volume.
* Targets: $604 and $606.
* Stop Loss: Below $601.
2. Bearish Setup:
* Enter on a breakdown below $598 with bearish momentum.
* Targets: $597 and $595.
* Stop Loss: Above $599.
3. Tools to Use:
* Use RSI and VWAP for intraday momentum confirmation.
* React quickly to price action at Gamma-determined levels ($598, $602).
Swing Trading Strategy:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Enter on a daily close above $602 with volume confirmation.
* Targets: $604 and $606 for a short-term swing.
* Stop Loss: Below $600.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Enter if SPY closes below $598 and sustains bearish momentum.
* Targets: $595 and $590.
* Stop Loss: Above $599.
3. Indicators to Monitor:
* EMA (9/21) for momentum confirmation.
* Volume spikes to confirm direction near key levels.
Options Strategy Based on GEX:
1. Bullish Options Play:
* Buy a Call Option with a $600 strike expiring in 1-2 weeks.
* Target: Exit near $604 or $606.
* Stop Loss: Close the trade if SPY falls below $598.
2. Bearish Options Play:
* Buy a Put Option with a $598 strike expiring in 1-2 weeks.
* Target: Exit near $597 or $595.
* Stop Loss: Close the trade if SPY rises above $599.
3. Neutral Strategy:
* Sell a Put Credit Spread at $598/$596, profiting from SPY staying above $598.
* Maximum profit achieved if SPY remains above $598 by expiration.
4. Advanced Gamma Strategy:
* If SPY holds above $602, consider selling a Call Spread at $604/$606 to collect premium while capping risk.
Actionable Plan for SPY:
* Scalpers should focus on intraday moves between $598 and $602, with quick reactions to price action.
* Swing traders can capitalize on breakouts above $602 or breakdowns below $598 with clear targets and stops.
* Options traders should leverage low IV and GEX levels for directional or neutral premium-selling strategies.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
Blast offLook, Spy is bullish and that makes bears really mad. They have to resort to Elliot Wave Theory, "Hidden" bearish divergence (its so hidden, its plastered all over the internet) and calling it a scam.
NEWSFLASH
It is a scam. Why fight it? Anyone who hopped on calls Last friday has made their next 3 years of profits inside of a shortened holiday week.
What did you do?
Listen to your furus with weird a$$ nicknames on here tell you that it has to go down because they drove thru a random neighborhood in Cali and saw less xmas lights than last year (that is an actual post/reason in the ideas section on SPY).
You want to keep throwing your money at worthless put options be my guest. Every dip has been bought because everyone crams through the door on a $1 pullback, and becomes rocket fuel.
Time to blast off.
600 -> 605 PT SPYDuring my data research i do see several data detecting 600 will be the target for tomorrow.
Reason:
- Pivot today was 601-602, could break above 602, which showed a lot of resistance on the data board.
- 600 is showing on several expiry that indicating it will retest 600 (Also, this is large support short term)
- If we break below wedge, I will buy 601 puts, and then 602 for the following next week.
- We will keep watching data to see results.
SPY: More Selling Going Into New YearSPY RSI on the monthly chart is showing an acceleration of selling going into the next few weeks, the 1.618 fib extension from today's high shows a perfect placement to the support created on Nov. 1 2024, and the EW count is showing today's high as the end of wave 2 retracement wave. Wave 3 will be the highest volume wave and will bring SPY down to 568 at the end of wave 3 or wave 5. Expecting Wave 3 to end at 568 and Wave 3 to bring SPY down to 565 over the next 2-4 weeks.