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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments. 🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages. 🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 24: 🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭: Forecast: 51.5 Previous: 52.7 This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. 📅 Tuesday, March 25: 🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒: Forecast: 95.0 Previous: 98.3 This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence. 🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️: Forecast: 679,000 annualized units Previous: 657,000 This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market. 📅 Wednesday, March 26: 🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Forecast: -1.0% Previous: 3.2% This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity. 📅 Thursday, March 27: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Forecast: 226,000 Previous: 223,000 This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market. 📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth Previous: 2.3% This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024. 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Forecast: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales. 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵: Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4% Previous: 0.9% Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6% Previous: -0.2% This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior. 💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹: Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. 🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️: Previous: 592 rigs This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
SPY Morning Scalping Game Plan – March 21, 20251. Market Overview * Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market) * Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today) * Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength * Major Support Zones: * $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support * $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%) * $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%) * Major Resistance Zones: * $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance * $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%) * $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%) 2. Expected Market Behavior * Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure) * Key Decision Area: $560 * If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570 * If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550 * GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness: * If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward * If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move 3. Scalping Playbook Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) 📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity * Entry: Below $560 with confirmation * Target 1: $555 * Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues) * Stop Loss: Above $562 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Strong volume on breakdown * Stochastic & MACD trending lower * SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible) 📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity * Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure * Target 1: $565 (gap fill) * Target 2: $570 (call resistance) * Stop Loss: Below $560 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Buyers stepping in at $560 * Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD * Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes 4. Key Indicators to Watch * VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish. * 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down. * Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift. 5. Risk Management * Take profits quickly! Market is volatile. * If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels. * Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences. 6. Summary * Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562. * Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550 * Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570 🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly. Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
SPY ... You have to look at things weird to see REALityThis is a half-assed comprehensive look into all that has been going on. The crowd was ready to go ballistic and then magically the guy of the hour roars back and walks into the exact same scenario as '16...all goes calm and no one seems to notice or care about things anymore...That broken down infrastructure...after his Infrastructure Bill...."Bro, dude..it was that deep state yeah, they kept it from happening, he's got it this time, hasn't been taken care of since '16..but he will do it now" --This is actual objectivity and viewed with Boolean> yes or no logic; politics is money just as it's Boolean...did you get paid- yes or no...did something happen- yes or no..so keep your emotion and pre-burned in public schooling (not your fault, just something you were subject to and may, to your core, believe) to the back burner...Think clearly from here: Quick two questions for you to base everyone on foundational flooring.... In 1969, with the computational power of an Alabama-style Data center filled with Ebay A100 Nvidia cards with a hawktuah load applied before inserting into the motherboards/connectors....the US was said to do the unthinkable....the unthinkable...as in, why hasn't any country done it again since then. Advanced GPUs, the greatest supercomputer of China...the newest steels and alloys...the newest temperature regulation fabrics...unthinkable...to this day. I'll let that simmer for a sec... In 1969, Pros, note plurality, picked off, in a moving vehicle, the man who was the last of the true face of America. The unthinkable happened cause he dared to tear the 3-letter crews in charge into a 1000 small pieces, but that did happen...in 1969...in a moving car....with what the Pros I've worked with in my 19 years of Spec Ops and private forces training/instructing call the "T shot". Hit the collarbone/sternum/trachea...for any miss of 2 inch deviation from center shot is lethal in all directions(given 308/Creedmoor variant). Once accomplished, the head is the second shot. Normally on standstill, it is a single man job, but on a moving target it is done with 3 if spotter needed, or two with spotter as second pew-pewer. Unthinkable...but actually done..in 1969...with half ass scopes and no modern tech in way of fragmentation, aka Controlled Chaos rounds. Yet...in 2024, nope...just can't seem to get it done, basically just not possible, don't have the advancements of say, my buddies with 8x infrared, bipod equiped coyote collector pew-pewers from Alabama or Montana...but unthinkable of the same crews to be so sloppy the 2nd time when much more tech,but pure perfection when primitive is used.. Hmm, makes you think for a second...if your instagram or X isn't all you use for mental stimulation. So recap: The Indians hit the Moon with a >>>rover<<<, the Chinese successfully got a >>>rover<<< onto the surface with Indian help after their crash and sharing analytics....and we are having issues getting the carrier rockets to not go ka-gone in mid air. Is rocketry hard...you bet...is aerospace an insane frontier, of course....equal or greater than the deep colossal squid stomping grounds. But people... 1969.. it's all been done before and yet David Attenborough is not doing 4k explorations on the Moon which would literally be the...the...most watch BBC documentary of Human time. But nope...still nothing...simply costs too much and takes too much expertise..."Excuse me Prez...The Z man said the next trove of Billions is going to be arriving when?, his guys are getting impatient on the front lines" This can be easily argued and data presented...I'm just curious as to why a CDC6600 with 3,000,000 Flops could do it, and the current monster in the US...even though China's is much more powerful...is 1,742 petaFlops..or 1,742 x 10 the 15 power while 1969 was 3 x 10 to the 6 Just a thought...and if that chart doesn't sit well with you at first...and you read this far...then look at it again from a different perspective. I know...Ask Deepseek, or Qwen Max how to do it...they should be about 1 million times better as back then. "But goin' to Mars yall"...hmmm The charts you see are just the controlled world reimagined. When a man who is colorblind wears special glasses, the world changes into a paradigm unimaginable since birth. So why fight the chart or what is written above...maybe think someone like me has had way more connections than i care for and yet when sharing, gets put aside for some Insta-ho chick or a dude who has a Spotify podcast...hmm, seems everyone went team red in less than 4 months now that I think of it :) hmm...i wonder
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
SPY Approaching Key Resistance – What’s Next?Technical Analysis (TA) & Key Levels SPY is currently testing the upper trendline resistance around $570, indicating a breakout attempt from the recent downtrend. A successful break above this level could lead to further bullish momentum toward $573 - $583, aligning with the 7.97% CALL Resistance. However, failure to sustain above $570 may trigger a pullback to $560, where put support exists, acting as a critical demand zone. * Immediate Resistance: $570 - $573 * Breakout Target: $583 - $594 * Support Levels: $560, $549 Price Action & Market Structure * A Break of Structure (BOS) is visible at $570, indicating a shift in momentum. * The Change of Character (ChOCH) signaled a trend reversal, with buyers stepping in from the $555 - $560 range. * The MACD is turning bullish, confirming positive momentum. * Stochastic RSI suggests SPY is nearing overbought conditions—watch for potential profit-taking. GEX & Options Sentiment * HVL (High Volume Level) at $570T - Indicates a crucial battleground for price action. * PUT Walls: $560 (highest negative NETGEX) – Strong support where buyers might step in. * CALL Walls: $583, $594 – Targets if momentum sustains. * GEX: Bearish bias with PUTs at 77.3%, indicating hedging pressure remains. Trading Plan & Recommendation 📌 Bullish Setup: * Enter on a confirmed breakout above $570, targeting $573-$583. * Stop-loss: Below $567. 📌 Bearish Setup: * A rejection at $570 can lead to a retest of $560. * Stop-loss: Above $573. Final Thoughts SPY is at a critical inflection point. Watch for volume confirmation and options flow before committing to a direction. A decisive move above $570 opens room for upside, but a rejection could signal downside pressure toward $560. 📢 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly. 🚨
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ price action breaks through trend line. SPY does not During the current upward swing of the market, i believe QQQ will break back through its 2 year trend line, indicating a bullish market, and a faster momentum upwards. But, because the SPY price action has fallen further than QQQ, I believe the momentum will subside before it is able to break the trend line, therefore when the price action retests the trend line it will fail indicating a bearish market.. This will cause SPY and then QQQ to fall. and the entire market to continue its downward swing... (apologies for my poor drawing skills)
AMEX:SPY
by MomentumCrossroads24
1
SPY: Yet another bearish SPY forecastLooking at the previous sell-off patterns, theres a strong possibility that if the downtrend continues, SPY will head to low 500's by mid-May before rebounding in the summer to retest current levels (540-560) before completing the final leg (or first) of a correction to the high mid-high 400 price level - or potentially low 400s in September. Its been a while since I've shared a predictive chart but the current market behavior makes it hard not to try to paint a picture. Heaps of salt to be taken - I've been wrong many times before
AMEX:SPYShort
by myceliium
SPY Falling Wedge Into Support SPY forming a descending wedge after an extreme sell off, one of the fastest declines in recent history. This wedge style pattern tends to be the result of sharp move in a particular direction, in this case downward as temporary relief before continuiing in the direction of the larger trend. Ill be looking for liquidity to enter the market on the thursday / friday session for a potential bounce. If not, then its likely the market will be in for a rough spring.
AMEX:SPYLong
by afurs1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.​ 📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$76.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 53.5​ Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Divergence - Bullish Comeback?SPY is showing quite a significant bullish divergence on the Daily timeframe. This appears to concur with a potential double-bottom formation. We also see the RSI beginning to poke up through it's moving average: Alongside this we see a Rug Pull target on the 4h timeframe of the ES1! S&P futures ticker. Rug-pull events on this ticker have seen a great degree of accuracy over the past few years, as seen below: This rug-pull target alongside strong divergence on the higher timeframes indicates a high probability the markets will trend towards the upside in the near future.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketTraveler
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 2, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is set to announce new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aiming to align U.S. import duties with those imposed by other countries on American goods. This move is expected to impact various sectors, including automotive and manufacturing, and may lead to market volatility as investors react to potential shifts in trade policies. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Indicates the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, reflecting manufacturing demand.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy. ​ 🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments. ​ 🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors. ​ MarketWatch 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, March 31: 🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 45.5​ Previous: 43.6​ Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 226,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.​ 📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$123.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 📅 Friday, April 4: 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.3%​ Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends. Key Observations: 🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels. 📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns. 📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback. 🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend. Key Questions for Traders & Investors: ✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction? ✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns? ✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move? Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Brian_Heady
$540 incoming put trade expiring 4/4 or 4/11 AMEX:SPY I start these Anchored VWAPs where the volume was the lowest before a major upside or downside. When I entered this trade $540 expiring 4/4 was at $.5 on 3/27 on Thursday around 9.55am currently $2.06 closing week, however I want to highlight that the $540-$530 would be the major leg down and we might see the $570-$580 levels for first week of June imo. Note: I am heavily comparing price actions for nowadays with 2022 first half drawdown.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SuLLL0