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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to move into another breakaway price move - very similar to yesterday's price move. I will add that I believe the SPY cycle patterns have already moved through a breakaway phase with the ceasefire news early this week. I believe the gap and breakaway move yesterday may be the breakaway trend we are expecting today. That would suggest the markets could pause and pullback a bit over the next few days. Gold and Silver are trying to find a bottom after the brief selling that took place over the past few days. I really do believe Gold and Silver are poised to make a big move higher. Bitcoin is on a terror to the upside. But be cautious of the downward cycle channel that may prompt a rollover in BTCUSD near the $107,500 level. I spend a little time near the end of this video highlighting my work on the Tesla 3-6-9 price theory and going over a few examples for my new book on trading. Enjoy the quick look at some of the more advanced techniques I'm working to unlock for all of you. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY GEX & Technical Setup – Aiming for Gamma Lift-Off?GEX Outlook (June 24, 2025):
SPY is sitting right on top of a major Gamma Wall at 607–610, with high net positive GEX and strong Call Wall stacking above. The 2nd Call Wall (609) and GEX10 (611) suggest bullish optionality remains intact if SPY can hold above 605. * GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢🟢 * IVR: 13.7 (low implied volatility rank, bullish) * IVx Avg: 16.7 * Put Walls: Strong support at 595 and 591 * Call Pressure: Builds up from 605 to 611 📌 This is a prime environment for long CALLs, especially for traders expecting momentum continuation through 607+. Price Action (1H): Smart Money Concepts Perspective * Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed at ~606 * Retest held strong near 600.15–604.45, validating support * Clear bullish CHoCH and BOS sequence with strong volume * Current candle consolidation inside a small supply zone near 607 (possible pause before continuation) Support Zones: * 604.45: First line of defense * 600.15: Breaker block retest * 591.90: Ultimate bear invalidation zone Resistance Targets: * 610: Next major target (2nd Call Wall) * 611+: GEX10/extension zone for squeeze 🔍 Trade Idea (Scalp or Swing) Bullish Scenario (CALLs setup): * Entry: On retest of 604.5–605 zone * Target: 610–611 (Gamma zone breakout) * Stop: Below 600.15 * Options Play: Buy 610C 0DTE/1DTE if intraday bounce confirmed above 605 or breakout continuation above 607 Bearish Reversal? * Only if SPY breaks below 600 with momentum + volume. Otherwise, dip = opportunity. Summary:
SPY is riding a strong bullish structure with GEX favoring upward pressure. As long as 604–605 holds, dips are for buying. Watch 607–610 for breakout confirmation. Options market flow supports further upside if volatility remains controlled. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs 📈 Equities Near Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge 🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly 📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 25: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
6/24/25 - $SPY - punchbowl musings. moar upside into YE.6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: pondering $SPY/M2 I'll attempt to keep this punchy. - Moar upside into YE, but with a few bumps along the road. We're probably due for a small garden variety pullback sooner vs. later. And it should be bought, without flinching. Index options are easiest and lowest risk way to play this trend, unless u like single names like me :) - I look at the above chart SPY/M2 (so S&P divided by M2) a lot - The last time it grabbed my interest was earlier this yr before the market did it's lil dip, now it's grabbing my interest again since we've played out a bottom and a recovery - I wonder... is px action going to follow '98 (door 1) or the trapdoors of '08/09 (door 2)/ '20 (door 3)/ '22 (door 4). - I suspect it's closer to '98 (and btw had this thesis before seeing the recovery in the last two months, so it's played out) - While any event can cause the market to reset another 20-30% from here, the problem is "we don't have this event". Clearly war (at least an escalating one, not a multi-week headline-driven one - sad as any war is) won't do it. Also the Fed is just about telling Trump to suck the long one... and even that rates might go higher, but the mkt also is either ignoring this/ or frankly- might acknowledge it and doesn't care. Also we have a consumer recession on the horizon - this is no surprise to many of us. Market still doesn't really care. So what kind of event is it? - Well in door 2 we had a pretty gnarly set of defaults in US housing. Will this happen again? Probably not in housing, there will be pockets, yes. But these sorts of things typically don't repeat, esp with the money printer locked and loaded. - Door 3 was a "pandemic" (quotes intended) which freaked everyone out. Well played Klaus. But doubtful that card can be re-played without also seeing the money bazooka locked and loaded. - Door 4 was rates FINALLY seeing liftoff after over a decade. But now they're pretty restrictive. Can they get more restrictive? Sure. But will they go up another 2...3...4...%? Unlikely. Direction ultimately is probably lower *eventually*, even if there's a bit more economic pain on mainstreet. - So door 1 is somewhat unique. The market doesn't remember that timeframe well. And it feels like tech is back in that sweetspot. Mag 7 (just use QQQ on it's IWM- small cap pair) so QQQ/IWM or even SPY/IWM (both contain similar mag 7 weightings) shows no brakes. Hard to see why I'd rather pay 15 or 20x for a small cap with mid singles growth and no margin or moat vs. say NVDA at a slight premium. You get the point. So I think we're back there. - Does that mean we get a garden variety pullbacks here/there along the way as headlines hit? Probably. I see a lot of crazy 0dte'ing all over the place. The cheapest and probably most profitable way to play that would simply be sticking to index options, tbh. But alas, that's not a 10 or 20x ;) - Could a consumer recession in 2H keep stonks flat or only +5-10% higher capped until we can see "beyond"? Maybe. But remember, the big leaders (most Mag 7) are B2B and AI-driven. So you can paint an earnings story (lower costs b/c of tech) even if the top-lines are challenged. Again, let's see. - Alas people have been DM'ing me "WHY ARE YOU SHORT?" - Simply put, I have conviction in a very few number of things right now on the long side. I do think the market will tend to see higher highs, and there's not an obvious reason why that ends, just yet. And the market needs a reason to go down, not up. - However, a lot of ETFs I've found to short are offering me ATM exposure for 5-10x leverage for very very little premium (low IV) relative to picking and banging my head causing brain damage to keep identifying the single names. Most of these ETFs own "the same company" which all trade correlation 1... so in any garden variety pullback, they will all trade v similarly and so I'd rather just pay less for the hedge. - Therefore I remain with high BTC exposure (vis a vis OTC:OBTC ) at nearly 50% of my book. I think this converts to ETF in the next 90 days, giving me another 10-12% pop (as it's 88-90% discount to spot). Therefore, I can pack just a 1.4% IBIT ATM short (vis a vis puts) for nearly half this exposure. If BTC runs, as I expect, but can't predict exactly (EVEN IF THE CONVERT DOESN'T HAPPEN), I lose the 1.4% but probably pick up a solid 10...15...20% on this OBTC exposure. Seems like a good hedge. - Same thing for BUG, ROBT, UFO... IV is just low. These are all correlation 1 baskets. They let me offset my NXT and GAMB size. That's all. I'm not calling "SHORT IT ALL" but rather, if things keep running "yes" i'll make less... but I believe my long exposure OBTC/ NXT and GAMB will outrun these ETFs. And even if they are similar in px action... I'll just make less, but it will still be positive. - Now if the market really does puke 10-15 or 20%... I'll take these shorts and just deploy across all the work on single names I like. V likely the usual suspects are the one's I've written about and I'd size these up. King among them will be BTC. Hope that helps. I like looking at this chart. Perhaps you have one that catches your attention too... that allows us a glimpse around what inning we're in. The TL;DR is I think we're in inning 7 of this multi-decade run. I'd guess a true top gets put in in the coming years. But unlikely this year. And I'd be surprised if we retest the Mar/ Apr lows. Dips of the 5-10% size should be bought aggressively, not feared. Alas who knows. I don't have a crystal ball. V
AMEX:SPYLong
by VROCKSTAR
SPY 15-Min — Weak-High Sweep in Play• Discount BOS at 603.95 → impulsive leg to 606.7 (0.886) • Weak high tagged at 607.16 – expecting continuation to 1.382 ≈ 608.61 then 1.854 ≈ 610.92 • Invalidation if price closes below 605.45 session VWAP band • Targets: 608.61 → 610.92 • Risk: stop 604.9 (below 0.5 Fib) VolanX bias remains risk-on while micro structure stair-steps above the 9-EMA channel. Educational only – not financial advice #SPY #SMP500 #OrderFlow #Fib #VolanX #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance 🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds 💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 24: 10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bouncing Up from Support after NewsSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $593 support level after recent global news (de-escalation news). Price action has slowed and consolidated in June 2025, and the S&P500 is still maintaining a price uptrend. The 50EMA and 20EMA Golden Cross is still active and in progress (since May 2025). The next stock market earnings season is not for another 3 months. Inflation, interest rate news, global events, government news, corporate news will continue to affect price volatility this summer. Resistance Levels: $604, $610, $612, $619. Support Levels: $600, $593, $586, $579.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
SPY Breaks Out of Gamma Box! Will It a Trend Day or Fade Setup?SPY Breaks Out of Gamma Box! Will IT Trigger a Trend Day or Fade Setup? 🚀📉 🔍 Chart Overview * Timeframes: 1H (GEX + key zones), 15M (Price action + SMC). * Price: $601.65 at close. * SPY broke above 600, a key GEX resistance and call wall area, and is pushing into a zone with less options resistance. 📊 GEX + Options Sentiment * 601–602 Zone: Highest positive NET GEX, aligned with CALL wall and resistance—where market makers may start to hedge against upside. * 604–606: Next upside liquidity zone; low GEX, meaning little dealer resistance = gamma vacuum potential. * IVR: 21.2 (elevated slightly). * Put Positioning: 78.2% heavy skew—market still defensively positioned. * GEX Shift: Bullish; breakout above 599–600 flips structure toward 604 as target. 📐 Smart Money Concepts (15M Chart) * CHoCH → BOS Confirmed: Trend structure flipped bullish today. * SPY rallied off demand at 591.90 (old support/OB) with increasing volume. * Currently tapping into minor supply zone (purple box) at 601.5–602. 📈 Key Technical Levels * Support: * 599.00 (GEX flip zone) * 596.41 (FVG support) * 594.28 (OB + FVG confluence) * Resistance: * 602.00 (GEX wall + supply) * 604.85 (GEX extension zone) 📌 Scenarios 🟢 Bullish Play (Momentum Breakout) * Entry: Above 602.20 (confirm breakout of supply) * Targets: 604.50 → 606.00 * Stop: Below 600.40 * Confluence: Gamma vacuum + weak resistance = ideal for calls if IV remains controlled. 🔴 Bearish Play (Fade from GEX Wall) * Entry: Rejects 602 with wicks + high volume reversal * Targets: 599.50 → 597.00 → 594.50 * Stop: Above 602.50 * Confluence: Heavy puts suggest rally could be faded unless institutions step in. 💡 Game Plan * Watch 602 rejection or acceptance—this will likely decide the rest of the week's direction. * If accepted, it's likely a gamma squeeze to 604–606. * If rejected, SPY may dip back to 599–597 to retest bullish structure. 🎯 Options Strategy * Bullish: Weekly 602C or 604C if breakout confirmed. * Bearish: 600P for fade/rejection plays. Higher risk due to squeeze potential—tight stops. 🧠 Final Thoughts SPY is at a pivotal level. The breakout from 599 suggests bulls in control, but we're now at Gamma resistance. Keep tight risk if playing calls above 602. The upside is open—but only if dealers lose control. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-23 : Afternoon UpdateWhat happened to the CRUSH pattern? Everyone wants to know why the CRUSH pattern didn't show up today. Well, I keep telling all of you these SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN, Tesla and Fibonacci price structures. They do not take into consideration news, global events, or anything outside of PRICE. They are predictive - meaning they attempt to predict potential price shapes/patterns weeks, months, and years in advance. The markets, obviously, are seeking some normalcy after the Iran conflict. I thought the CRUSH pattern would have been a perfect fit for today - but obviously the markets didn't agree. If you have been following my videos, you know I keep saying the US stock market is acting as a global hedge for risks. Traders are pouring capital into the US stock market as a way to avoid global risk factors. Traders are also pouring capital into Gold/Silver. Demand for physical metals is through the roof right now. Time will tell if my Excess Phase Peak pattern plays out as I expect or if we rally to new ATHs. Obviously, this sideways rollover topping pattern could present a breakaway in either direction. Again, my patterns are not correlated based on news or other events. They are strictly price-based. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
SPY- Premarket readPre-Market Read – June 23 AMEX:SPY Premarket High: 595.15 Premarket Low: 592.15 Bias: Leaning Bearish Price got rejected again at that 600–602 zone — that’s been a wall. All the EMAs (9/50/200) are stacked tight, which usually means something’s brewing. Institutions bought heavy down around 572–579 — they’re already green, so they might start selling into strength. I’m expecting chop between 593–595 off the open. I’ll probably wait out the first 15 min and let the ORB build. If we break out, I’m watching both sides, but I lean put.
AMEX:SPYShort
by davekclinton76
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-23 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern suggests the markets will struggle to find any support for a rally. A CRUSH pattern is usually a large breakdown type of price bar that moves aggressively against the dominant trend. Som, today I'm expecting some fairly large price action and I believe the markets may start a breakdown move this week as we continue to get more news related to the Israel/Iran/US conflict. This week will be a "resettling" week in my opinion. Buyers will start to actively liquidate and reposition assets as we move deeper into this conflict. When buyers turn into sellers (to get out), the markets usually react very aggressively in trend. Metals continue to hold up without making any big moves. I believe the increased FEAR level could play out as a moderate rally for metals over the next 15-30+ days. BTCUSD broke down very hard (more than 6%) over the past 3-4+ days. This is a big move downward for Bitcoin and could suggest US technology stocks/sectors could also collapse on fear of a "rollover top" in the US stock market. Smart traders will hedge and pull capital away from this potential top - just like I've been suggesting for the past 2-3+ weeks. Oddly enough, if we do get a rollover/top this week because of the Iran conflict, it plays right into my Excess Phase Peak pattern and the predictions I've been making over the past 4+ months. No, I don't foresee events like this Israel/US/Iran conflict. I can't see into the future. What I can do, and continue to try to deliver, is the best analysis I can offer without becoming BIASED by indicators, comments, or other inputs. I just read the chart and will tell you what I see as the most likely outcome. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
SPY: ASI DIMENTION SHIFT TRADESPY: ASI Dimension Shift Trade Markets are no longer responding to human logic—they're reacting to macro compression and machine foresight. This trade captures the inflection point where AI and capital collide. 📌 Watch: AMEX:SPY holding above 532 = dimension support Breakdown below 518 = confirmation of SMC exit VolanX signal: “Shift registered. Volatility node expanding. Defensive alignment required.” #SPY #VolanX #SMC #AITrading #ASIDimension #MacroBreakout #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
579 spy incoming?I posted this a week or so ago. I think we are finally going to have the momentum, or lack thereof, to make it down to fill the rest of that gap. I have noticed that large gaps that leave a small gap below(you must adjust the indicator to show it) almost always get filled before continuing up. This 579 level also matches up perfectly with the 20ema on the weekly which should provide further support. I will be looking for this level all week while being aware of any short squeezes that could occur on the way down. Will definitely go long at this 579 level as I think we will have a very green July.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fraggle_Rock
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment 🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction 📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses 🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile ⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 23 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June) 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May) 📅 Tuesday, June 24 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June) Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress 📅 Wednesday, June 25 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) 📅 Thursday, June 26 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) 📅 Friday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
exposing the inner workings of the illusive 'black box'Black box reveal I was debating whether i'd ever share this publicly, but i came to an agreement with myself and decided to share this out of commission model. With the knowledge that comes with understanding predictive quant models, I was able to derive patterns the had arisen in the market via matching algorithms which gave me the ability to predict where a market was likely to open, make a high, make a low, and close on any given day where no news was being priced in. I was always told to keep my findings private, but no one wins if I do that, so I decided to share and the individuals that have the ability and care to figure out the puzzle for themselves can do so with this as a starting point. Im writing this post in one take so I apologize for any grammatical errors. In tradingview's LEAP challenge i've kinda been blowing my account over the last week and have just under 80% profit and no open positions with a week to go before it ends, so this post is also for people to look back and see if intraday trading can catapult my account. Good luck to all the participants!
AMEX:SPY
by oscar_malik
12
SPY At Risk as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Jun 23 — What Monday Holds for Bulls & Bears ⚔️📉 🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview: From the daily GEX chart: * Key Gamma Levels: * 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance. * 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside. * High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572. * GEX Summary: * PUTS: 80.4% dominance * GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative * IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising * Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590. 📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D) * Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close) * Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed. * Structure: * Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance * Next major demand zone: 587 * Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming. * Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution. ⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart * CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt. * Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it. * Support Zones: * 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce. * If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587. * Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish. ⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran * News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces: * Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise. * Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform. * Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty. * SPY Implications: * Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590. * Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts. * Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift. 🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24 🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates) * Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply) * Entry: ~595–596 rejection * Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX) * Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box 🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension) * Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation) * Entry: 598–599 breakout * Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall) * Stop: 596.5 📌 My Thoughts: SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast. Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs. 🧭 Action Plan for Monday: * Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well. * Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587. * Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion. * Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights