SPY Trade Review – Potential Pop and Flop SetupI’m tracking a potential pop and flop scenario forming on SPY. There’s a setup for a possible 5.5% move higher, followed by the opportunity for a larger short of up to 15% toward final downside targets.
SPY and its key influencers, including the Magnificent Seven , are currently rebounding off significant support levels. This could allow for continued upside before running into major resistance.
As highlighted in the chart, we may see a further push higher of approximately 5.5% , taking us into the weekly/daily high support lost zone at $564 . If this level acts as firm resistance and price reverses, a break below $549.83 (our trigger for adding short exposure) could lead to a significant selloff.
Downside targets include:
- Target 1: $502
- Target 2: $476.30 (a potential new local low)
A daily or weekly close above $564.52 would invalidate this short setup.
This is a high time frame setup , but I’ve shown it on the 4-hour chart for greater clarity. Now we wait and see!
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Overview For 4-12 : Thank youThis video is mostly a big thank you for all the great comments and questions over the past few weeks.
I've been posting these videos on TradingView for almost a year and the types of viewers/followers I've been gaining is incredible.
You guys & gals have really impressed me with your questions and engagement. Many of you follow me for months without ever commenting or asking any questions.
I received a call from a client/follower in Alberta last night and he reported last week's gains at over 300% by following my videos.
I received a message from another TV follower saying he's been following my videos for many months and, after a bad loss a few years back, he has decided to give trading another go.
I've stated it before and I'll keep saying it.. I'm not trying to scam you out of anything. I'm trying to show you the RIGHT SKILLS and TECHNIQUES for you to learn to become a better, more skilled trader.
The way I look at it is like this...
If I can teach you half of what I know and see on the charts, then you guys will be able to achieve so much greater success and have gained/retained the knowledge to do it on your own.
You watch me do it over and over on these charts. Guess what - you are LEARNING at the same time.
Now, after a couple of years of doing this and following my videos, you've GAINED an education on how to trade more efficiently, manage risk more efficiently, and achieve your trading goals (I hope).
Right now, I'm getting messages/comments from people saying they are making 200%, 300%, 500%, or more every week or two from my videos.
That is absolutely incredible. I just want to urge you to remember I'm not 100% perfect in predicting the markets. No one EVER really is 100% perfect at it.
In the long run, as long as you don't get super greedy, you'll survive any minor losses and live to trade another day.
That is probably the most important thing I can teach you - trade within a proper scale to your RISK LEVEL. Never BET THE FARM on your trades. Always have a 50% to 70% cash reserve.
Anyway. Thank you. I really appreciate all of you.
Hope you enjoy this video.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY Tech Brkdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance
SPY Technical Breakdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance Zones
Analyzing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on the 4-hour timeframe. As of the latest candle, SPY trades at $547.37, up 0.15%, and is showing signs of sustained bullish momentum after a recent pullback. For swing and short-term traders, this setup could present a strategic opportunity.
🔍 Price Action and Volume Analysis
SPY has shown a textbook recovery from April lows, bouncing cleanly from support around the S2 pivot at $515.50. Volume is also increasing on up candles, indicating institutional buyers may be stepping in. The 4-hour chart structure suggests a healthy uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
🎯 Key Fibonacci Pivots and Resistance Zones
This chart includes weekly Fibonacci pivots, providing clear areas to watch:
R1: $530.33
R2: $545.15
R3: $554.32
Currently, SPY is trading just above R2. If it breaks and holds above this level, the next target lies at R3, which could act as a resistance zone and potential area for profit-taking.
🧠 Indicator Insights: VWAP and Bollinger Band Strategy
The lower chart panel features a strategy combining VWAP and Bollinger Bands, labeled "BBofVWAP with entry at Pivot Point." It triggered a +40 signal recently near the VWAP-Pivot level, reinforcing the bullish thesis. The slight expansion in Bollinger Bands hints at rising volatility, possibly paving the way for a bigger move.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If SPY maintains strength above $545.15, we may see a continuation toward $554.32 (R3). A strong close above R3 could signal a bullish breakout with potential to test new highs.
🔻 Bearish Case to Watch
On the flip side, failure to hold above R2 and a breakdown below $530.33 could indicate a bull trap. In this scenario, $515.50 or even $506.34 (S3) could come back into play.
ORB Breakout PullbackWaiting for SPY to break my 15 min ORB on the 5 and/or 15 min time-frame then I'll enter on pullback if it holds, especially if it hold at the 9 EMA, Volume supports and the VIX is inline as well. If VIX up SPY down and vice versa. Also, will confirm on 30 min timeframe for more confirmation. Let's see. Patience is key.
Opening (IRA): SPY June 20th 490 Short Put... for a 5.26 credit.
Comments: Targeting the strike that is both at 16 delta or below and that is paying 1% of the strike price in credit ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 484.72
Max Profit: 5.26
ROC at Max: 1.09%
Will generally look to ladder out at intervals, assuming I can get in at prices better than what I currently have on, roll out at 50% max ... .
SPY Trade Plan – April 25 Saw a triangle forming on the 5 and 15 min charts. My plan is to wait for the breakout at 549, then catch the pullback to 547. I wanted the 9 EMA to hold and a green candle to confirm before getting in.
I got my entry at 548.50, stop at 547, and my first take profit at 550, second at 552.
The whole point of this trade for me is to being patient. I didn’t want to chase. I wanted to follow my rules:
✅ Wait for pullback
✅ Respect the 9 EMA
✅ Confirmation candle
TRAP RALLY?AMEX:SPY trade, watching this pivot level for 2nd flag continuation into 560's or a break down to retest lows.
Overall trend is bearish, so until bulls show themselves, the continues voice that yells buy this dip, is nulled by the sense of, FOMO temptation. never plays out well.
No actual trade deals made, no actual announcements. just headlines and people retweeting post. Price>everything.
SPY repeat of ladle patternJust presenting what I see. Prices likely to be pulled back up to the LVN looking at good buy volume at close. However the days volume wasn't great because of the Europe holiday
Holidays ar common for whipsaw prices. With european markets open today, I wont be surprised if the market head back up for a day or two watch out for the resistance line
Safe trading
SPY, NVDA, TSLA, AAPL: Certainty Amid the ‘Uncertainty’ Buzz
AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:AAPL ,...everybody is talking about uncertainty, but much looks certain-: we are transitioning from a Keynesian to an Adam Smith economic policy. Ironing of trade barriers is part of the package, along with deflation of lofty valuations associated with goldilocks scenarios financed by federal debt increases.. Will they deflate in big nominal fashion like last month or in contained fashion such as one buffered by inflation? At some point productivity should be greater than today, and if Buffet will be around he will again act as canary in the in coal mine.
Do the Bears have it?So far, I'm sure no one is surprised where we are with SPY. From a charting perspective, we are still in a nice, long-term bullish trend. The short term is the issue. SPY is still trending downward, and until we can break through that upper resistance, I am bearish. We are also sitting right between the 100 & 200ma on the weekly chart, so there is still room for da bears. (I still want SPY @ $466, 200MA.) The good news is, price is making good swings, so you can still carve out wins! Stay optimistic!
C.
SPY: 485 remains the line between correction and collapseS&P 500's bearish trend that began in February 2025 has ended following a strong 14% rebound from a key level that previously triggered the last sharp down move. This does not mean the market is immune to further downside, but if one still maintains a bearish view, it is important to note that breaking below 485 would likely mark the beginning of a major bear market and the end of the long-term uptrend that started in 2009. Of course, no one wishes for that outcome.
SPY Approaching Major Resistance Zone SPY has rallied sharply from its recent low, but it's now pressing into a critical resistance zone. Price is currently sitting just below a major unfilled gap between $539.54 and $548.94. Until this gap is filled and the market closes decisively above it, the broader downtrend remains intact and risk of a reversal is elevated.
Current Price Action:
SPY has reclaimed $535.29, a short-term support that must hold if bulls are to maintain momentum.
Price is hesitating under the gap, a common reaction area where sellers often defend.
Moving averages are turning upward, indicating short-term strength, but we’re still below key longer-term resistance zones and the 200 EMA (not shown).
Downside Risk Levels If Rejected:
$489.73 – minor horizontal support
$481.80 – a prior low and key reference point for buyers
$474.14 – structural support area from prior consolidation
Extended targets: $454.29 and $426.80 if broader weakness resumes
Analysis : This area between $539–$549 is the battleground. If SPY can fill the gap and close above $549 with follow-through, that would be the first meaningful technical confirmation of a potential trend reversal.
However, failure to clear this level could open the door for a larger pullback. Watch price action and volume closely — a rejection here would indicate that sellers are still in control, at least in the medium term.
As always, be patient and let the chart confirm the direction. For now, SPY is at a decision point — one that will likely dictate the next leg in this market.
SPY - RISK OF BEAR MARKET VERY REALTrumps tariffs is going to be the catalyst for a bear market that the US needs to have. I'm expecting a 30% - 40% drop at most but don't worry, it will be a good time to buy when the dust settles.
The RSI is painting bearish divergence on monthly. Big sign of drop.
The MACD is curving downwards. Also a big sign that we'll be dropping soon.
Bear cycles typically last only 1 year. But its alright, I'll be there to buy spy when its cheap because I have confidence in the US to produce cool new things and figure out new innovations.
Also intrest rates will drop, money printer go BRRR and dumb money flows back into the space.