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SPY trade ideas

SPY Hanging on Mid-Range Support โ€“ Will It Rebound or Flush?โš ๏ธ Technical Analysis (TA) โ€“ Intraday View Current Price: ~$567.56 * SPY recently experienced a CHoCH followed by BOS, but now formed a new CHoCH โ†’ bearish shift in structure. * Price is testing a minor demand zone between 566โ€“567, holding just above the larger support base at 560โ€“555. * Volume increased on recent sell candles, showing seller control โ€” but Stoch RSI signals nearing exhaustion. Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover โ€“ but histogram showing potential slowing of momentum. * Stoch RSI: Deeply oversold and starting to turn up โ€“ signals possible bounce/retracement coming. ๐Ÿ” Key Levels Support Zones: * 566โ€“567 โ†’ Short-term demand / micro CHoCH * 560 โ†’ Highest negative GEX zone โ€“ PUT support * 555โ€“550 โ†’ Strong liquidity zone & 2nd PUT Wall Resistance Zones: * 572.5 โ†’ HVL zone and broken structure * 580 โ†’ Gamma wall zone, strong CALL resistance * 590โ€“600 โ†’ Extended resistance levels for swings ๐Ÿง  GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade Pro) * GEX Sentiment: ๐Ÿ”ด๐Ÿ”ต๐Ÿ”ด โ€” Bearish skew, with a weak neutral pocket * IVR: 26.4 โ†’ Volatility low, but near option seller zone * IVx avg: 20.7 * PUT$%: 53.8% โ€” Strong bearish hedging flow * CALL Resistance: 580 โ†’ gamma ceiling * PUT Wall: * 560 โ†’ Highest negative NetGEX (dealer support) * 555 & 550 โ†’ backup defense zones * HVL: 572.5 โ†’ key flip level ๐Ÿ“Œ Current setup shows dealers are heavily short gamma below 572.5, causing negative delta pressure. ๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Trade Setups ๐Ÿ“ˆ Bullish Setup โ€“ Bounce from 566โ€“567 * If SPY holds and reclaims 570 with strong bid, a move toward HVL possible * Entry: Break and hold above 570 * Target 1: 572.5 * Target 2: 578 * Stop-Loss: Below 565 * Options Play: * Buy Apr 3 $575 Calls * OR Call Debit Spread: Buy $570 / Sell $580 ๐Ÿ“‰ Bearish Setup โ€“ Breakdown Below 565 * Confirmed lower high and break of demand โ†’ opens trapdoor * Entry: Below 565 with momentum * Target 1: 560 * Target 2: 555 * Target 3: 550 * Stop-Loss: Above 570 * Options Play: * Buy Apr 3 $560 Puts * OR Put Spread: Buy $565 / Sell $555 ๐Ÿงญ Final Outlook * Bias: Bearish โ†’ unless 572.5 HVL is reclaimed. * SPY is caught between strong PUT support at 560 and heavy gamma ceiling at 580. * If market sentiment worsens or macro triggers hit, 555 is the magnet zone. * If buyers step in and hold 566+, bounce setups are likely โ€” but it must reclaim HVL for any strength. ๐Ÿ“› Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
Massive Rising wedge 4hr chartMassive rising wedge on 4hr chart!! Been tracking this the last couple weeks. Itโ€™s been respecting the trend lines for the this pattern. I believe this is either last leg down in the pattern or one more leg up before it completes the pattern and drops. Target would be 550-560 next week and then 540-550 the following week. With April 2nd with tariffs being finalized we could see this move happen between now and then. If this is the last leg down before it completes the pattern and drops more and breaks the bottom trend line it will happen by either Friday or Monday. If it does leg up it will most definitely be April 2nd when it breaks through bottom trend line. Letโ€™s see how this plays out but for those saying that we are not in a bear market and the bottom was back 552 then your not paying attention. I feel like the bottom could one of 3 targets - $490-20% drop, $430-20% drop, $307-50% drop. Now this all depends on Senior Cheeto. I am thinking 20%or 30% is ideal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Stockdiddler24
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 27, 2025 ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐ŸŒ Market-Moving News ๐ŸŒ: ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿš— Auto Tariffs Announced: President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the U.S., effective April 2. This move is expected to impact the automotive industry and could influence market sentiment. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ“‰ UK Inflation Falls: UK inflation has decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, raising speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in May. This development may have implications for global markets. โ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Š Key Data Releases ๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿ“… Thursday, March 27: ๐Ÿ“‰ Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 226,000โ€‹ Previous: 223,000โ€‹ Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.โ€‹ ๐Ÿ“ˆ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) โ€“ Second Revision (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 2.3% annualized growthโ€‹ Previous: 2.3%โ€‹ Provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.โ€‹ ๐Ÿ  Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 1.0%โ€‹ Previous: -4.6%โ€‹ Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.โ€‹ โš ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Œ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Tariffs and Trade: Order Behind the Chaos? AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT . Tariffs: It seems that mainstream media is depicting this administration's economic policies as chaotic, suggesting a sense of uncertainty and confusion about whatโ€™s happening. However, we can infer that the situation is far from messy. Eventually, tariffs worldwide could be balanced on fairer terms, leading to much more efficient global trade. In cases where tariffs remain reciprocally high, it might simply indicate a shift to a different taxation mechanism, moving away from direct government taxation.
AMEX:SPY
by YardCharts
Spy Outlook - Two Key Scenarios to Watch this WeekHello everyone, Iโ€™m theCafeTrader โ€” hope you all had a great weekend. Currently, SPY is sitting near the tail end of a supply zone around 569.57 . So far, it hasnโ€™t shown strong conviction to push through this area, which likely reflects a lack of buying interest rather than heavy absorption by sellers. In this post, Iโ€™ve outlined two scenarios for how you might approach trading SPY this week. As youโ€™ve probably noticed, weโ€™re sitting right in the middle of the broader range . Iโ€™ve marked out both light and heavy supply and demand zones โ€” these will be critical for spotting clean entry opportunities. Remember, liquidity moves markets , and we want to be on the right side of the move with strong entries. โธป Scenario 1: Break Above Supply If we open or gap above the current supply , and price holds that level , I can see SPY pushing up toward 584 , encountering some light supply on the way. The play might look like this: โ€ข SPY runs up to 576 , hesitates slightly (possible minor rejection), โ€ข Finds a bidder and continues to 584 , where heavier selling pressure is likely waiting. That would be the ideal short entry , with a little room for volatility, aiming for a move back down into a new demand zone (not yet formed or shown here). โธป Scenario 2: Rejection and Roll Over If we reject this supply zone and roll over , watch for price to cut through demand again and test the big buyers near 549.50 . Iโ€™m especially interested in longs in that area. Even if price dips a bit further, thereโ€™s extreme demand at 540 , though Iโ€™d prefer to keep a tight stop so I can reposition quickly if needed. From there, I think we could catch a strong bid and rally back up to 584 . โธป If you found this helpful, please give it a boost and follow โ€” I chart and post updates daily. Also, YouTube is coming soon with live breakdowns and deeper analysis โ€” stay tuned!
AMEX:SPY
by thecafetrader
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 21, 2025 ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐ŸŒ Market-Moving News ๐ŸŒ: ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ“‰ Japan's Inflation Data Release ๐Ÿ“‰: Japan will release its inflation figures for February on March 21. Analysts expect a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January's 4.0% to approximately 3.5%. This data could influence global markets, including the U.S., as it may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions. โ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Š Key Data Releases ๐Ÿ“Š: ๐Ÿ“… Friday, March 21: ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ: Previous: 592 rigsโ€‹ This weekly report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the health of the oil and gas industry. โš ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.โš ๏ธโ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Œ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
1
SPY....as a Spy, use different detective tools eh?I lost the math papers for those numbers on that fib retrace, but they are an expression of Pi and Fibonacci sequential percentages...So it is basically a cycle thing but with mild patternization (word subject to webster approval)--why Pi--Read below: This is a chart of a simple 7 day time interval...The code for the topping tail and bottoming tail finder is half asses but it works most of the time, so if interested I can create a public script and send it off for everyone. But look at how massive those tails are and how nice the rebounds are, especially in a down trend reversal. The theory came while working out and thinking about the reality of time. Since all time exists and is based on your fingers...look up Babylonian 144 finger counting or base 60...and you will see all that you know is basically a convenient fabrication...or one lucky guess. 12 goes into 360 degrees of a circle for odd example. just add 5 to that circle and you conveniently get 365 days of said y...e...a...r...Great Scott Batman, there are also 12 months in that year!!! see my point example....12 x 5 equals 60...ergo 60 seconds per minute, 60 minutes per hour (3600 seconds per hour...there's that 360 villain again, quick get it Robin), 2x12= 24 hour days, then same 12x5= 60 derives both the number 5 for trading days and the 12 hours you can trade on each of those 5 days....but wait, its plus 1+ 13 hours. 7am to 8 pm, general extended hours to be simple So 13 hours a day X 5 days a week = 65 hours...hmm that's 2 primes for you So instead, lets use 2 more primes cause you know 7 is the days of a week...so lets screw up that math ^ and see what we get lets keep the 12 but add 7, so 84 seconds to a minute, 84 minutes to an hour, 2 x 12 still is 24 hours in a day, so 24 hours x 84 minutes per hour gets you, well 84 x 84= 7056. Then 7056 x 24 gets 169,344 seconds per day vs 86,400 seconds on the 5 day model. Hmmm, that's a difference ratio of 1.96. Almost 2 by adding 2 more days...interesting, So you can see how we can now manage more data in an almost 2 for 1 way, but yet you only just added 2 days...a funny thing happens when you free weight bench and think of funny things. Happened to be two 45s and it go me thinking about degrees and a circle. See a circle can't be fabricated since Pi is universal and there is no way to undo it no matter the metric. Yet time can be almost doubled by adding just 2 more days to a group of days. The circumference of a circle is 31.42 when using 5, but if we add 7 instead, you get 43,98.. 43.98/31.42=1.39974... ergo, you add the same numerical metric to a circle's radius and you barely get a 40% increase...you get just shy of 2 times in time....which one was created versus found. (may be all wrong here, but think about it when you view the chart... So if we imply that our world is mostly 206 bones ( a moving average I use proficiently) and as much time as we could count on our fingers, then is it any wonder that our "Math" only exists in certain fields and is not transferable an new things have to be made up to explain things. Wasn't it said all things come back to a circle for it draws all things in, and it is the only shape that humans innately get perplexed by if it is slightly of, like say someone saying its a full moon, but even though it is a bunch a many miles away, in one glance you can just say "Nope, that edge ain't right". So if Pi can't be screwed with, then wouldn't it make sense that everything else you add to that will always have a fault later. So the short of this is exactly that very last point. When you view the world in the way you were always taught and then something just never stuck with you cause it seemed off, its maybe because its not natural to you and you are more connected with the real surrounding than numbers. Last point: There is exactly, to the measurable degree of astronomical proportions, 3 feet between your open arms and your Gram-Gram's open arms when it comes to giving a hug. But Physics states you will touch when the repelling of the atomic structure of you two meet in the middle....but some math prick draws on the board that it is exactly definitionally impossible to touch her and her since the very middle is impossible to get to, for 1/infinite is said to be anything but 0. Ergo, your Gram-Gram is mathematically infante distance away, but you are like, "Dude she is right here bro"...let that sink in. 7 day charts seem less stupid now, along with 84 minute charts as well??
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 20, 2025๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐ŸŒ Market-Moving News ๐ŸŒ: ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿฆ People's Bank of China (PBOC) Interest Rate Decision ๐Ÿฆ: On March 20, the PBOC will announce its latest interest rate decision. While specific expectations are not detailed, any adjustments could influence global markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. โ€‹ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿฆ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision ๐Ÿฆ: The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. Analysts anticipate that the central bank will maintain the current rate at 4.5%, following a recent reduction. This decision will be closely watched for its implications on the UK economy and global financial markets. โ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Š Key Data Releases ๐Ÿ“Š: ๐Ÿ“… Thursday, March 20: ๐Ÿ“‰ Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) ๐Ÿ“‰:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 225,000โ€‹ Previous: 220,000โ€‹ ๐Ÿญ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET) ๐Ÿญ:This index measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, with positive numbers indicating expansion. Forecast: 10.0โ€‹ Previous: 18.1โ€‹ ๐Ÿ  Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) ๐Ÿ :This data reflects the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the prior month, offering insights into the housing market's strength. Forecast: 3.95 million annualized unitsโ€‹ Previous: 4.08 million annualized units โš ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.โš ๏ธโ€‹ ๐Ÿ“Œ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY rally done soon?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline. My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow. This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted. Specifically for SPY, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 549.68. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 525-538. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end. Another possibility that could play out is we rally through the weekend. In this case Intermediate wave 1 possibly ended at the current Minor 3 bottom. This would mean we are in Intermediate wave 2 now. I will evaluate this solution if the rally continues next week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
A Clear Bottom. Headed North? Hey Traders, We're back again with another SPY prediction as the last one we had from Feb. 1st was spot on with the big sell off of 10% from the top. This is shortly after the FOMC news which has interest rates unchanged, however, market sentiment seemed to like it as the moving averages came to a head and we had some serious buying after 2pm. I'd like to point out that there is a few good things happening aside from the market. The astronauts are being rescued, Ukraine and Russia and working on a deal, and inflation rates have been coming down. On a technical note, we broke out of the downward channel and we're breaking above longer timeframe moving averages. I'm going to assume the direction is north, somewhere in the region of 580 as short-term target. Let's see what happens in the next 2 weeks. Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tsteves