SPY Head and Shoulders
The SPY Head and Shoulders setup aligns with the majority of cryptocurrencies exhibiting similar movements, awaiting a neckline break to reach the target.
SPY trade ideas
S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Correction will occur in 2025📊 Chart Overview: This analysis highlights the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) from an Elliott Wave perspective. It identifies key trends, corrective patterns, and long-term opportunities for investors. The broader market remains structurally bullish, with corrective dips likely providing accumulation opportunities.
Elliott Wave Breakdown
Wave Count:
- The SPY is in a long-term bullish sequence, completing Wave (I) around $610.85.
- The recent structure shows signs of a developing Wave II correction before the next impulsive move higher.
Wave II Correction:
- Wave II is expected to form an ABC corrective pattern, targeting deeper retracements within 2025.
- Wave A is projected to pull back into the $520–$540 range.
- Wave C could test lower supports near $480–$500, completing the corrective phase.
Invalidation Level:
- The invalidation level for the bullish count is $347.26. Any movement below this level negates the current wave structure.
Market Outlook
Macro Environment:
- Economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation trends, will heavily influence SPY's price action.
- Anticipate increased market volatility during Wave II but retain a bullish outlook for the long term.
Sector Implications:
- SPY's diversified exposure suggests broad market recovery after corrective dips, particularly in tech and industrials.
Key Takeaways
- SPY remains in a right-side bullish structure, with short-term corrections likely providing excellent entry points.
- Long-term investors should focus on accumulating positions during corrective phases, while swing traders can capitalize on price volatility.
💡 Reminder: Corrections are natural and necessary for healthy market growth. Stick to your plan and "buy the dips." 🚀
$SPY #NotSoHappy #NewYearsAlert #DescendingTriangleClear as day
Loaded up 585P 1/17s between 330-4p today. (Should've/Could've legged in early yesterday in 590s as that gap proved to be solid resistance aka hindsight 2020 #Notebook)
DESCENDING TRIANGLE BOOM
Investopedia link; www.investopedia.com BOOOOOOM
Wizard status?! SSSSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOOOON
Higher For Longer "The Trump Trade" This TradingView chart illustrates a bullish long-term projection for SPY, forecasting a sustained rally over the next four years driven by market optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s economic policies. Key technical indicators signal a robust uptrend, with historical parallels drawn from previous pro-business administrations. The chart highlights critical support zones and breakout levels, suggesting minimal downside risk as institutional buying accelerates.
Macro factors such as tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending are projected to fuel corporate earnings, pushing SPY to new all-time highs. The chart outlines a trajectory that aligns with cyclical bull market phases, emphasizing "higher for longer" price action as volatility stabilizes.
Spy Technical Analysis for today December 31Technical Analysis for SPY
SPY has been trading in a consolidating downtrend, with potential support at $577 and resistance near $600. Current price action suggests a possible attempt to retest resistance or break below key support levels.
Indicators:
MACD shows signs of a slight bullish reversal, but momentum remains cautious.
The 9 EMA is attempting to cross above the 21 EMA, indicating early bullish momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
Support: $580 (critical pivot), $577 (strong floor).
Resistance: $590 (near-term), $600 (psychological and gamma resistance level).
GEX Analysis for Options
Gamma Levels:
Call Wall: $600 acts as a major resistance, with significant positive gamma exposure (48.19%).
Put Wall: $580 shows strong negative gamma pressure, indicating key support.
Options Oscillator Insights:
IVR: 16.7, reflecting moderate volatility.
Put/Call Ratio: Slight bearish tilt, with 55.8% Puts.
GEX: -57.75% at $588, highlighting increased downside pressure near this level.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Entry: Above $591.
Target 1: $600, Target 2: $607.
Stop-Loss: Below $588.
Bearish Scenario
Entry: Below $580.
Target 1: $577, Target 2: $572.
Stop-Loss: Above $585.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and manage risks before trading.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-31: Top PatternHappy New Year Everyone,
Today's pattern is a TOP pattern. This suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally in early trading, attempting to identify a resistance level and then rolling into a TOP type of pattern.
I don't expect the markets to fall much after reaching the top/resistance level. I expect it to be more of a stalling type of price action after reaching resistance.
Gold and Silver will likely attempt to confirm a base/bottom near recent lows. I don't expect too much movement in metals today.
Bitcoin moved below recent support, then rejected back to the upside. If this support fails, Bitcoin will move strongly to the downside over the next few days.
As we move into 2025, capital will start to rush back into the markets in early January. This low-liquidity phase will end near Jan 5 through Jan 8.
Be prepared for price to attempt to revert back into normal 0.5 to 1.25% price ranges - consolidating as liquidity increases in the markets over time.
Remember, the first half of 2025 will be very volatile - so buckle up and get ready for some big price rotation in early 2025.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bull & Bear New Year SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY
We see the indices having a tough January. Long-term trend is still intact. The 10-year yield is a benchmark for bulls/bears. It needs to be down to 4% (currently 4.5%). If it hits 5%, the pullback will intensify. There is a high floor of support on pullbacks, notably the 50SMA ($580) and 200SMA ($550). We are not thinking bear market. We are overextended.
$595 CALL 1/13
Entry: Breakdown under white trendline
Targets 🎯: $595, $598.67
$585 PUT 1/13
Entry: Breakdown under white trendline
Targets 🎯: $585, $583.56, $580
Best of luck to you all and a happy new year from all of us at Pennybois!
🥂🎆🥳
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Daily Price Consolidation - End of 2024SPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently in a short-term consolidation price pattern (end of December 2024).
SPY price needs to hold and rally above $583 to avoid a daily bearish head-and-shoulders resistance price pattern.
Support Prices to the downside are: $583, $577, $569, $555, $532.
Resistance Prices to the upside are: $592, $600, $604, $613, $626.
Several Key Events will be occurring in the USA, January 2025:
-CES 2025 Conference (week 2)
-Inflation Data (week 2)
-Stock Market Earnings Season begins (week 2 to 4)
-New President taking office, potential law changes (week 3 to 4)
-FOMC Press Conference (week 4)
Note: Any of the above events can cause stock market volatility and override technical charts.
Date: 12/30/2024 pm
S&P - History repeatsThere are many trading styles and indicators to follow, but one constant is that when a price becomes overextended and investors have committed funds, it will eventually retrace to lower levels as consumer and investor behavior adjusts.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - SPY PathsSPY almost came all the way back to fill the gap but failed to breakout of its descending channel. Will be looking for upside if it can fill that gap and continue back up towards $602.50 and ATH.
To the downside watching $585 and the election gap fill for now.
Spy Long $615I am long no shorts I have an expected target of approximately $615 End Of January!! I will Not be Shorting!! Good luck Traders Buying Opportunity
SPY is going up and into the New YearThe SPY will start going up and continue into the New Year for about 14 days which has been the average upward movement in the past few months.
I typically use Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as they show more of a directional move as opposed to regular candles. However, since I have used regular candles in the past, I tend to switch back and forth until I get more comfortable with the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. You can see my past posts on why I favour the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. Typically, you are only supposed to enter after you see 2 green candlesticks of the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks.
In the past, there has been an average move of 34 points on the SPY which would make the target point of 614. (There has been an extreme move of 53 points, but I think that is unlikely. That would make the target equal to 633. But that is an extreme point not a likely point.)
The Fibonacci number of 1.618 is 624. This is a good second target point.
My time target is about a 12 to 14 day move. This would make Jan 9th the time target.
If the SPY hits any one of those targets I am out of my trade.
Happy Trading!!
In the last few days of the month of January or beginning of February, I suspect the market will start to head lower for that one month. But I will address that in my next chart. The market can always change between now and then.
Summary:
34 point move= 614
1.618 fib move=624
12 day move = Jan 9th
**can be an extreme move of 53 points, but unlikely= 633
There is an online trading conference/summit I try to attend every 3 to 4 months where I have gotten some of my ideas from. The next one is from Jan 13th - 18th called Wealth365 You can register for the event at www.wealth365.com
$SPY 2025 market predictionHere i am going over my 2025 thesis going into next year and some stats and data to support along with technical levels!
Much BIGGER drop on $SPYLooking at the AMEX:SPY , we could and should expect a downtrend or market correction. Entry pending.
SPY vs SMHCan markets rally without Semis participating in the rally ? It is clearly forming a bullish wedge on the daily. #SEMI are the new Transports.
QQQ SPY 0DTE WKLYS Gap down in premarket. Looking for a gap fill or a fall to that 581 support. Simple Plan. Simple Execution. Happy Trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/30 : GAP ReversalThis week should resolve as a Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ. Yet, I believe price action will be very volatile as we are still transitioning through the holidays.
Overall, I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to mount a fairly solid rally this week - possibly attempting to reach new All-Time highs again.
Then, I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into an extended topping pattern over the next 2+ weeks - resulting in a breakdown trend after the Inauguration.
Gold and Silver appear to be trying to base/bottom and we may see a decent rally in metals this week. I hope so because I don't believe Metals should be this low compared to the risk factors throughout the global markets.
Bitcoin is transitioning through an EPP pattern Flag breakdown event. If this continues, I suspect we'll see a downward price move targeting $74k before the end of January 2025.
Remember, my Daily/Weekly Cycle Patterns are designed to help us plan and prepare for market opportunities. No, they are not 100% perfect all the time. But I don't know of anything else that can attempt to accurately identify price trends, setups, events weeks and months into the future.
2025 is going to be a great year for traders. Remember, it is all about what you can do with the information I share to profit from these moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY in a Crucial Zone! Scalping, Swing, and Options StrategiesScalping Analysis for SPY:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate support at $594 (key gamma wall and major put support).
* Resistance near $599-$602 (gamma resistance and call wall).
2. Key Indicators:
* 9 EMA & 21 EMA: Price is below both EMAs on the hourly timeframe, suggesting bearish short-term momentum.
* MACD: Early signs of a bullish crossover, indicating potential reversal.
3. Scalping Plan:
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: On rejection near $599-$600.
* Target: $594, $591.
* Stop Loss: Above $602.
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Breakout above $599 with strong volume.
* Target: $602, $605.
* Stop Loss: Below $596.
Swing/Day Trading Analysis for SPY:
1. Trendlines:
* SPY is retesting its recent consolidation zone between $594-$599. A decisive breakout or breakdown will define the next trend.
2. GEX Analysis:
* Call resistance at $602-$605 indicates difficulty for bulls in breaching higher levels.
* Strong put support at $594 and $591 highlights a potential floor for the downside.
3. Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish Swing:
* Entry: Above $599 with confirmation or bounce from $594 with support validation.
* Target: $605, $610.
* Stop Loss: Below $592.
* Bearish Swing:
* Entry: Below $594 with retest confirmation.
* Target: $591, $587.
* Stop Loss: Above $596.
Options Play with GEX Insights:
1. High GEX Areas:
* Call Wall: $602, $605.
* Put Wall: $594, $591.
2. Suggested Options Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Buy Jan 5th $600 Call if SPY breaks and sustains above $599 with volume.
* Target: Move toward $602-$605.
* Risk: Below $596.
* Bearish Play:
* Buy Jan 5th $590 Put if SPY breaks below $594.
* Target: $591-$587.
* Risk: Above $596.
3. Options Oscillator Metrics:
* IVR (17.2%) suggests reasonable premiums for options strategies.
* Puts skew (65.3%) indicates stronger bearish sentiment near current levels.
Insights:
* SPY is trading at a key pivot level, with strong gamma resistance at $599-$602 and put support at $594. The breakout or breakdown from this zone will likely drive the next significant move.
* Volume Focus: Look for volume confirmation around $594 or $599 to validate the directional move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk.
Long positions are favored for SPY next week as bullish momentum
- Key Insights: SPY has exhibited strong bullish trends recently, supported by
positive economic indicators and robust corporate earnings reports. Market
sentiment remains optimistic, buoyed by strong consumer spending and
favorable employment data, suggesting resilience in the economy.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets:
T1 = 610.00
T2 = 620.00
Stop levels:
S1 = 588.00
S2 = 580.00
- Recent Performance: SPY has shown a notable upward trend over the past month,
rising approximately 7% amidst positive market sentiments. Volatility has
decreased, indicating a potential stabilization in price, as investors
respond favorably to earnings season and macroeconomic data.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a predominantly bullish outlook on SPY,
citing strong support levels and increasing institutional investment. Many
experts highlight that this upward trend is likely to continue as market
fundamentals remain solid, with ongoing interest in technology and
healthcare sectors.
- News Impact: Recent headlines around potentially favorable Federal Reserve
policies and infrastructure spending are contributing to positive sentiment
toward SPY. Additionally, ongoing global trade developments are closely
watched, as any favorable resolution could further bolster SPY's performance
in the coming weeks.
Technical Analysis Idea for SPYChart Pattern Identification:
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
Left Shoulder: Look for a decline followed by a minor rally, forming the left shoulder.
Head: A further decline creating a lower trough, forming the head.
Right Shoulder: A subsequent rally and decline forming a higher low, creating the right shoulder.
Neckline: Draw a trendline connecting the peaks of the left shoulder and the head. This line acts as a resistance level.
Entry and Exit Strategy:
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position when the price breaks above the neckline with strong volume, confirming the pattern.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the right shoulder to manage risk.
Target Price: Measure the distance from the head to the neckline and project it upwards from the breakout point to set a target price.
Squeeze Momentum Indicator:
Confluence Signal: Use the squeeze momentum indicator to confirm the breakout. Look for a shift from red to green bars, indicating increasing bullish momentum.
Momentum Confirmation: Ensure the squeeze dots turn from black to green, signaling the end of a consolidation phase and the start of a potential upward move.
Additional Considerations:
Volume Analysis: Confirm the breakout with a significant increase in volume, supporting the validity of the pattern.
Market Context: Consider broader market trends and news that might impact SPY's price movement. PYTH:SPY AMEX:SPY
a clear title that describes your idea.Please provide a meaning and detailed description of your analysis and prediction. Walk us through your thought process. Put yourself in the readers shoes and see if you would understand the context based on what you wrote. Clearly stated profit and targets and stop loss areas help clarify any trade idea.
$spy/dxy yieahh Something's gotta give - will the fed be the catalyst this month? Will we linger another quarter? Something and soon
Yieahhhh
12/30 Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Short week from Xmas leaves us with an inside weekly setup to start the new year. The way 2-1-X and 3-1-X setups (Inside bar setups) work, is they either confirm what happened previously, or negate it. In this specific scenario on the weekly, we have a large red week of selling (2D, followed by a pretty neutral inside week (1). Next week either goes 2D, confirming the selling from the previous week and therefore showing evidence of continuation lower, or we negate that selling by making a higher high (2U) and looking to reclaim the highs from the big red week from when FOMC occurred. We can't predict which way the next week will go, but we can at the very least imagine what has to occur for both bull and bear scenarios to be successful. Simply put, above last weeks high means we are targeting the weekly high from the week prior to last week. Below last weeks low means we are targeting the weekly low from the week prior to last week. Break either side and come back into last weeks range means we are failing to confirm/negate what the signal is indicating, and then we target the other side. EX: Monday pokes above last weeks high but closes red. We then would look to engulf the week and create a 1-3 combo on the weekly. This week should be similar to last week, meaning it may be tougher to trade since we have a few negative considerations and less ideal conditions to trade.
Considerations for the upcoming week: For starters, we have another short week with new years day on Wednesday being a full day closure for the markets. Short week means less time for weekly candles to form, and therefore, likely chance of less volume to occur compared to normal weeks. Secondly, its the new year! This means we see all new candles on every timeframe up to the yearly chart. So, new Year, Quarter, Month, Week, Day, Hour, etc. Because of this, we will see issues with decoupling. This means the Year, Quarter, and Month will all be the same exact candle until we get to the second month and quarter of the year. Because the week starts in 2024 and ends in 2025, the week will be decoupled, but the M, Q and Y will not. Again, not the biggest issues ever, but just considerations to have in mind.
Weekly Watchlist: (Side Note: I have added all of my charts for individual tickers mentioned for further clarity on what I am seeing with these setups)
Bullish:
NASDAQ:MRVL - 3-1-2U W to confirm bright green M, Y
NASDAQ:AVGO - 2-1-2U W to confirm FTFC Up. Relative strength. 4HR 2-1-2U and 1HR 3-2U for Intraday entries Monday
Bearish:
NASDAQ:SMCI - Shooter 2U W to confirm failed 2U month. Super nice Daily BF
NYSE:AI - 2-1-2D W to trigger Shooter failed 2U M. Gorgeous monthly Broadening Formation.
NASDAQ:MSTR - 3-1-2D W. BTC with a weak setup on the major TFs. Looking to capitalize through MSTR and other names in that space
NYSE:BRK.B - Shooter 3 D. Weekly 2-2U too weak to hit magnitude last week. Month is 3-1 but big red currently. May be early on this but with similar setups in the Financial industry, this is one I want to watch.
NASDAQ:AMD - Hammer revstrat D to trigger Weekly 2-1-2U at Monthly Exhaustion level. Yearly has a nasty bearish revstrat setup forming, but if we are just daytrading this, it looks good for an exhaustion play intraweek. Otherwise will be watching all next year for that Y revstrat to play out
Neutral:
NYSE:SHOP - 3-1 W. Month Failing 2U.
NASDAQ:NVDA : Currently Shooter 2U W. Normally this is just bearish, but the 2W chart can go hammer 1-2-2U, and M is 2D but close to open meaning it is failing that downside signal. I could see this going either way, but its such an interesting setup that I wanted to include it.
