THE STOCK MARKET IS CRASHING!! IS THERE HOPE? (April 6, 2025)Lowkey I popped off in this video, but we looked at AMEX:SPY weekly and talk about past repeating patterns, and when this chaos could end
SPY trade ideas
SPY w/ 2022 Fibonacci levels. The chart is the SPY with FIB levels from the 2022 bottom or close to give you an idea of where we might find support levels.
SPY with the cluster resistance rection! boost and follow for more 🔥 spy continues to break below the 557 level pivot level, I sold all my shares on the first break below last friday and have not added any back this week.
that reclaim of 557 pivot level this week only led to a cluster resistance rejection which was another bearish sign, I dont like longs right now unless we reclaim 446. for now bearish action can continue.
we will see I will keep monitoring SPY as always! GLTA
SPYAs investors, we must understand that in order for consumers to access cheaper products, sacrifices will be required in several key areas. Adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy (changes in the federal funds rate and balance sheet reduction) will directly impact GDP and real income. Likewise, consumer prices will reflect the impacts of inflation (CPI) and fiscal policies. Increases in labor costs (adjustments in wages and employment costs) will also play a crucial role in these changes. Private consumption (PCE) will be pressured by these dynamics, and businesses will have to decide between maintaining profit margins or passing these costs onto consumers. The key will be how these adjustments in prices and wages are negotiated, as the market seeks a new equilibrium between supply and demand. Prepare yourself, as these adjustments are part of a long and challenging process, but they are inevitable.
#SPY #SP500
SPY Equal Distance Top followed by takedown.The CD runup equaled the AB runup. 3 months of distribution followed as the SPY could not breakout. The week of 2/18/20 was the scamdemic top. The week of 2/18/25 top was the 5 year anniversary. Trump in office both times. I believe this is more than a coincidence and not just some tariff bs.
There was a reason Buffet was hoarding cash.
SPY: Week of April 7Hey everyone,
Sharing the levels for next week.
I don't have much of a forecast tbh, the thing is, in bullish markets its harder to forecast the long term, easier to forecast the short term.
In bearish markets its easier to forecast the long term, harder to forecast the short term.
Each week we have been up and down, taking out all highs and lows for the past few weeks owning to the volatility, and that is what makes it difficult to really adopt any forecast when most times we are just hitting all targets with the volatility.
Here are some things for the short term:
About 78% chance spy Retraces 528
507 is the reference target
Based on the EMA 21, there is an 89% chance of seeing a bounce on SPY.
Based on the EMA 50, there is a 69% chance.
POC from last week is at 537.
Will it bounce?
Yes, I mean like I said, we take both highs and lows out each week, I don't really foresee this week to be any different, haha.
And the longer term?
So the real interesting stuff I guess is the longer term, but not that interesting.
SPY is rapidly mean reverting. Right now the mean for SPY is around 481. This is actually within the forecasted levels for next week, so that's curious.
In 2022, the mean was 350. It took exactly 10 months (from January to October) before we finally hit it (and went 2 points lower).
At this pace, we are hitting it this month. Which is a concern. Why? Well let me tell you.
There are corrections that are required to happen generally, just a general mean reversion, not necessarily fundamentally driven. That was the example of 2022.
Then, there are corrections/crashes and cycles that are fundamentally driven. An example of this, for SPY, would be 2008.
In the fundamentally driven crashes, for SPy those would be COVID, 2008 Financial Crisis, those surpassed means and let to a stark sell. COVID was pretty quick, but 2008 was really drawn out owning to the unfolding of economic events.
The reason the 2 require distinction, is because technical and analysis are useless during fundamental corrections. You could draw fibs to the cows come up in 2008 and you would be bankrupt by month 3.
However, in 2022, technicals and such worked fine because we were just doing a basic correction from getting too far from the mean.
Interestingly enough, my comparison algorithm that compares the current year to similar years, for both SPY and SPX, has indicated that 2008 is the most similar year as of right now. This is a huge change from the results it gave even just a month ago.
For fundamental sells, it doesn't stop until stuff gets resolved. As was the case in 2008 with the required bailouts, and once the dust settled from the multiple industries and businesses that went under. Then the market started a slow and painful recovery.
The situation here is more similar to 2008 than the COVID crash. The reason being the main concern with COVID was economic shut down as a result of the pandemic. However, this was quickly curbed with modification of the work routine (industries working from home where applicable), the continuation of industries functioning and the huge stimulus that the government injected into the economy.
Right now, the issue is a global trade war. In 2018, Trump only tariffed random items (mostly metals) on a few random countries. Right now, he is blanket tariffing the global economy. He doesn't even stop there and has to bring in my favourite animal, the Peunguins.
God, Trump, what did they ever do to you? Leave the penguins alone!
This is incredibly bad, its actually unprecedented. It is essentially a world war from an economic standpoint. And we are still waiting for the verdict on some bigger nations retaliatory tariff results.
The global tariff war extends beyond just increase the cost of things, it actually may lead to a decrease in the US money supply, a rise in inflation and a huge cut to GDP for the US and other countries impacted.
Trump could lift them, ease them or something. This would probably lead to some initial reaction to the market, but it seems the market doesn't even trust him anymore because when he kept playing those "just kidding" games into the beginning of the year, the market just stopped reacting to them. It is kind of funny.
So the result is, it could be much worse than most anticipate, even myself.
As of right now, my plan is to go long in the 480s, kind of on most things. Rebuild a portfolio.
But as we progress, it seems that 480 may not indeed be the end. It just depends on Trump's mood at the time I suppose.
From a purely math analysis:
481 is the mean for spy, we are following the annual bear market path which has as low as 468.
Here is where we stand now on the annual assessment:
And then in terms of mean reversion, SPX is the most interesting to take a look at:
4,791 is the mean. The last mean correction it has had was in 2022, same as spy:
In addition, SPX just signaled a top/mean reversion signal.
On the prospects of a bottom formation:
None of my stuff indicates a bottom formation. In fact, we have some top signals just newly triggering, which is nuts I know but the reality.
So that's .. good? Maybe, haha.
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
My suggestion is to continue to position defensively in anticipation of both up and downside next week.
Safe trades!
Also, for more deep diving into the fundamentals, sort of, consider reading this post from me if you haven't already:
SPY On the verge of more downfallSPY has more room to go lower the everlasting balloon has popped by trump's nonsensical shenanigans
This is why we need new order in this world
The Perfect Trade. How I've been preparing you for this S&P DUMPThis has been the basis of my 5 recent videos on SPY - walking you through what the market was doing, what algorithms were in play and important to keep an eye out for - and ultimately, how to catch this most recent dump on a rejection (and proof) of teal strong selling.
My best trade ever in terms of profit and preparation, patience, etc.
Happy Trading :)
Reversal (landscape edit)As you can see we've nearly completed the
same amount of distance as the covid crash.
With resistance provided by the ichimoku
cloud and previous price level. Full recovery by
August.
Reversal soonAs you can see we've nearly completed the same amount of distance as the covid crash. With resistance provided by the ichimoku cloud and previous price level. Full recovery by August.
Is Stock Market Bouncing Here or Continue Crashing?Stock Market Analysis | NASDAQ:QQQ & AMEX:SPY
Mag 7 Analysis | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN MSFT GOOGL META
Spy.. Where we standSoo... I will go in detail for you so you can see where my POV comes from..
A summary of this post is a bounce. Back to 525-530 and then a possible new low to 470..
Let's start on the monthly time frame..
I will show you the chart regular then I will show you log scale (Logarithmic).
AMEX:SPY regular
Price is nearing a 5yr trend support
That support is at 495-500. There's a gap at 495 to close from April 19th 2024.. I would say if we were to gap down Monday below 500.00 that's where they will take this before buying it back up to 510.
Now do I think the correction Is over here at this trendline support? I'm leaning at it's a 70% chance we will break this support before End of May.
Why? Because of the sectors.. XLC and XLF is promising more pain to come.. imagine Spy as a car, the sectors are the important parts to keep things in motion . I'll get to the sectors later but let's stick with spy..
Now here's a monthly chart again but this time Log scale
As you can see with exception of the Covid crash spy has pretty much channel traded this the last 14yr bull run
Let's zoom in
As you can see, the bottom of this channel is around 2021 high 477. So I think Spy is headed there before End of May , it could happen sooner but you have to factor in A rally and i don't know how long that can last.
Also NASDAQ:QQQ monthly chart log scale is showing similar outlook
Zoomed in NASDAQ:QQQ
Lastly TVC:NYA
Monthly log scale
Same as Qqq and spy, headed back to 2021 high
NYA no log scale
So I've showed you the indexes now I will show you AMEX:XLF (Financials) and AMEX:XLC (Meta, NFLX)
Here's XLF price is headed back to trendline support 38-39.00 by end of May; that's another 10% drop which supports my theory that spy will tag 470
Zoomed in
XLF
Monthly 50sma aligns with trendline support so that's your target. I think any bounce on banks going into earnings should be faded!
XLC
I can't hammer on the table hard enough about how much pain is coming for this sector and it's tech stocks.. compared to the other sectors this hasn't even got started with the selling when looking at its monthly RSI and MFI. Friday price stopped right at its previous ATH
we are headed back to 82.00 which is another 8% drop on this sector, if 82 doesn't hold them , 60 comes next.. If you OWN meta on NFLX I hope you have a 5yr outlook because there will be pain
..
Now let's get into the bounce, I think a nice bounce comes next week as long as spy opens Monday above 495.00
When it comes to being oversold one of the most reliable tools I like to use is the PRICE RANGE tool with 20sma.
When you look at spy, you'll notice that in a normal market it usually moves between 2½-3½% from it's 20sma.
As of Friday's close we are 10% away from it's 20sma
This type of extension is extreme
Below I will post the last time spy was over 8% extended from it's 20sma and you can see what happened the next few sessions
June 17th 2022
Jan 24th 2022
June 8th 2020
March 2020 Covid crash
Dec 2024 2018
So in the last 7yrs spy has on dropped more that 8% from it's 20sma 5 times and with the exception of the Covid crash 10% extension was the area where you saw price Rallied back within days to retest the 20sma.
So that places us bouncing this week. Now the 20sma is fluid so even though the 20 is at 559 right now depending on how long spy takes to get there the 20ma could gravitate lower
I think 536 gap close minimum comes before we break below 495.
I will update this more tomorrow.. this right up took awhile
the week aheadprobably a good bounce monday - both IWM and DJT are hinting that buyers are coming in. We could have a fakeout either up or down first on Monday morning and test 5k.
$SPY obvious? Can we believe it?All from standpoint’s of chart, politics, consumerism, fear, uncertainty, and ego, this shows all signs to $455-$470, right? It would only be a 23% decline off the highs which were trading 6 weeks ago, lol.
WSL.
SP500 - Shiller PE RatioSPY
Looking back we can see where the Shiller PE ratio values provided an insight into buying into the SP500
We have altered courses from the High Interest rates of 1988 - the lows of 2020
I believe we are in a new Inflation cycle. This could result in rising rates over next 20 years.
It makes for a harder decision for buying the market.
If they are not going to truly rally @ 31.31 then will they at 27.08 or lower?
Will the market beat inflation?
(SPY) Technical's Signal Another -30% Drop to $350 Incoming!In this video, I break down the technical setup pointing to a potential -30% market correction, with a key price target of $350. Using trend structure, market volatility, and key support/resistance levels, I highlight why this level could be revisited in the coming months. I also examine historical price behavior during similar setups and discuss the factors that may align with this bearish scenario. Whether you're a short-term trader or long-term investor, this is a critical level to watch.
SPY going down down downI just make simple technical charts, and have no idea about matters at play from leaders in plain sight as well as those behind the curtains.
Things can only crash when they have been inflated. So far SPY is still in long term uptrend. Only when it drops below the thick blue lower line and stay below, it will be a down trend to me.
RSI on the daily hangs around 23. Switch to the monthly chart and the RSI is only at 50 yet. Plenty of room to go down! Remember, the all time highs of 2021 and 2023 were around 450. Fridays close was at 505!
SPY: Breaking Levels; TASPY broke down the Weekly demand line and now looking to break the Monthly demand.
Looking to possibly test the bottome weekly trendline.
Possibly a 530 price target and if weakness continues, possibly below more to 520 then 510.46 to fully retest that bottom trendline.
The market has bene crazy, people calling bottom, wanting to catch the reversal. I mean, I would want to catch this “V” up too, but have to see if it keeps trending down to the bottom trendline.
LMK what you think and if you have any TA, tag me!
*Not FA
Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off – Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum.
The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include:
Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested)
High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66
Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41
Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16
For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16).
Critical levels summary:
Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16
Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16
Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16
Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46
Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon.
These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
Rollercoaster Continues For SPYMy overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 3 (pink), Minor 3 (yellow), Minute 3 or 4 (green). I originally had this symbol nearly complete with Primary wave 1, but the continued declines received significant wave 3 of 3 signals (pink lines in bottom chart band). It is still unclear if we are in my theoretical larger decline or if we are in a simple corrective wave. It will take at least another two months to likely achieve the answer.
Theory 1 is my hypothesis where we are about to finish Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 in a multi-year market correction. This would see SPY bottom around 486 within two weeks and briefly head up toward 535 before continuing significant downward movement. Currently Intermediate wave 1 lasted 111 trading hours. Intermediate wave 3 is somewhat on pace to finish in the same amount of time around 17 April. Extensions based on Minor wave 1's movement could put Minor wave 3's bottom around 499.
Theory 2 is that Intermediate waves 1, 2 and 3 (pink) are actually waves A, B, and C (white) in a short-term corrective wave. This would mean this symbol returns to all-time highs around the fall of 2025.
Theory 3 places the stock in the third wave about to finish a wave A down over the next two months. Wave B up would last a few months before wave C takes the market to a bottom sometime around the end of 2025.
All three theories will observe the same movement over the next few weeks with a low soon and then a bounce up. Theory 2 becomes the likely winner if SPY breaks above 576.33 within the next 3 months. Theories 1 and 3 will trade the same for quite some time.
I will reevaluate this ETF once Minor wave 3 finishes. It should aid in providing a better bottom for Intermediate wave 3 in the next two weeks.
Market Falls comparison of the last 25 yearsBetween 2000-2019 the market had 7 big falls.
Since the Pandemic in 2020, the market has fallen 2 times and currently experiencing the 3rd big fall.
Although the current and last two falls seem big, percentwise have not been as big as the ones from 2000 and 2008.
Get ready for the current market to continue falling for the next 2-3 months and it will still only feel like a 20% correction, nowhere as big as the 3 biggest falls from the last 25 years.
US stock market vs CryptoUS stock market vs Crypto
Here's a YOY comparison chart of the US stock market vs Crypto. While all US stock market indices are down year over year, crypto is still up. Is crypto a better investment, or is this a temporary snapshot in time? Please drop a line and let me know your opinion.
SPY -3.3%
QQQ -4.88%
DIA -3.68%
IWM -13.8%
TOTAL +4.93%
TOTAL3 +3.24%
