Rising Inflation Expectations: TIP vs. IEFIntroduction:
With the election concluded, market focus has shifted to bond markets, where recent developments hint at rising inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's campaign emphasis on price control, indicators suggest a shift toward higher inflation. A key metric to monitor is the ratio
Key stats
About iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Home page
Inception date
Dec 4, 2003
Structure
Open-Ended Fund
Dividend treatment
Distributes
Distribution tax treatment
Ordinary income
Income tax type
Capital Gains
Max ST capital gains rate
39.60%
Max LT capital gains rate
20.00%
Primary advisor
BlackRock Fund Advisors
Distributor
BlackRock Investments LLC
TIP, launched in late 2003, had a three-and-a-half-year head start to accumulate assets before its first ETF competitor stepped onto the TIPS scene. It seeks to track an index that holds a broad and diversified portfolio of TIPS with at least one year remaining in maturity. Securities included in the fund must be USD-denominated. These securities must also be issued by and backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. The underlying index uses market capitalization as its selection and weighting criteria. Prior to January 31, 2023, this fund tracked the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index.
Classification
What's in the fund
Exposure type
Government
Stock breakdown by region
Inflation concerns lingering?One sign that the market may be turning skeptical on the battle against inflation is found within this chart. This chart plots the RELATIVE performance of TIPS against US Treasuries (as measured by NASDAQ:IEF ). While bond funds in general have been under pressure against stubbornly higher rates,
Tips Showing Clear Signs Of Bullish DivergenceTreasury Inflation Protected Securities are showing very clear divergence on the 2 week scale. Divergence of such are some of the most powerful signals that one can get especially on such a wide timeframe generally mean a shift in dynamics for quiet sometime. More so when concluding in bonds. As bon
QQQ still very elevated when compared to the TIPThe NASDAQ:QQQ typically trades with the AMEX:TIP over time, as the TIP represents real yields. With the TIP ETF falling, it would suggest the QQQ should be falling too, but that relationship has broken down over the past several weeks, suggesting one is likely wrong.
TIP off... Just want to show an anomaly observed here... sort of a tip off on what is most likely to happen.
You see, I read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear back in 2009 (not easy to get it as it is out of print!), and he describes TIP as one of the/a leading indicator ahead of the equity market.
Superi
TIP off?Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index.
Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect
Simple comparison between TIP and SPY - ominous lookingA simple comparison between TIP and SPY line charts. Had always known that TIP is one of the leading indicator for the S&P500 index (and ETF is SPY). Previous heads up shown with the lag denoted by the white boxes.
Key takeaway here is that TIP had went past the last low, and is pushing down lower,
Impact of TIPS on inflationHello friends.
There is an interesting correlation between the TIP ETF and inflation. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. These are fixed-income assets with a built-in hedge against inflation, so investors buy TIP when they expect high inflation and sell TIP when they expect low
See all ideas
Summarizing what the indicators are suggesting.
Oscillators
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Oscillators
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.