Update on UNG short saleClosing UNG short at 9.1% profit.
UNG has dropped to an area that may provide some support for a period of consolidation.
UNG trade ideas
moving to 14 ?This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service.
UNG Quick ShortLooking for a quick drop in UNG to the middle of the rising channel in the 20.00 to 20.25 area.
This is a quick spec trade. Stop loss at 24.50.
Closing profitable UNG positionUNG has hit the designated target designated on Dec 20, 2024.
Though there is potential for further long-term upside, the price has now reached previous previous high set in May/June 2024. As well, it is at the upper end of a parallel channel as shown.
I am closing the position at a profit of 37.6%. I plan to re-enter if/when price hits bottom of channel, or current resistance flips to support.
Opening (IRA): UNG March 21st 18/June 20th 35 LPD*... for a 15.04 debit.
Comments: Fading this natural gas move here with a long put diagonal, buying the back month -90 delta put and selling the front month 25. The 35 long put is shown at the 21 strike due to the 35 being off the chart.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.96
Buying Power Effect: 15.04
ROC at Max: 13.03%
Break Even: 19.96 relative to 19.68 spot
Will generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for, roll out the short put on approaching worthless.
* -- Long put diagonal.
UNG is Heating Up! Smart Money’s Radar Locked In – Ready for a B 🚀Technical Analysis (TA) for UNG – Natural Gas ETF
* Trend: UNG is in an uptrend, holding above key support at $18.21 and forming higher lows.
* Price Action: The stock recently tested $18.89 but pulled back slightly, consolidating near the upper trendline.
* Support & Resistance:
* Resistance: $18.80 (current resistance), followed by $19.00 psychological level.
* Support: Strong support near $18.21, with a lower trendline acting as secondary support.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Shows weakening momentum, with the histogram slightly fading, indicating possible short-term consolidation.
* Stochastic RSI: Recently crossed downward from overbought levels, suggesting a cooling-off period before the next move.
Trade Outlook
* Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $18.80 with volume could push it toward $19.00+.
* Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $18.21 could see a retest of $17.41 support.
💡 Final Thoughts: UNG remains a high-probability stock on the radar, but traders should watch for confirmation of trend continuation or potential rejection at resistance. Keep an eye on volume and price action near key levels.
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 🚨
It is still going downThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
12.55 is the weeklyThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Update on UNG longUpdating my previous long trade initiated when UNG broke through the 200 DSMA two weeks ago.
At the same time, the 200 DSMA turned upwards after having been in a downtrend for over two years.
Note also the huge increase in volume since the 200 DSMA was breached.
My current target is former tops formed in May/June 2024 in the 21.00 to 22.00 area. (I would close at least 50% of my current position and raise my stop in that case.)
UNG: Consolidating with Bullish Momentum! Watch Key LevelsTechnical Analysis Overview
* Trend Analysis:
* UNG is forming a potential ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, with higher lows and resistance around $17.00.
* The price action suggests a bullish breakout if it sustains above $17.00.
* Support and Resistance:
* Support: $15.49 (key horizontal support), $14.77 (PUT support wall).
* Resistance: $17.00 (near-term breakout level), $19.50 (major resistance).
* MACD:
* The MACD line is crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum in the short term.
GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance Levels:
* $17.50 (48.19% GEX): Strong call wall, crucial for a breakout confirmation.
* $19.50: Next major resistance if the price moves above $17.50.
* Put Support Levels:
* $14.77 (-12.76% GEX): Highest negative GEX and a solid downside cushion.
* Options Activity:
* IVR: 63.4, indicating relatively high implied volatility.
* Calls dominate the options chain with 79.8% CALL skew, signaling strong bullish interest.
Trade Setups
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $17.05 with strong volume confirmation.
* Target: $18.50 → $19.50.
* Stop-Loss: Below $16.50.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $15.40.
* Target: $14.80 → $14.00.
* Stop-Loss: Above $15.75.
Final Thoughts
UNG appears poised for a breakout above $17.00. Traders should monitor volume closely for confirmation. While the bias is bullish, key support at $15.50 should be watched for invalidation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
New Setup: UNGUNG : I have a swing trade setup signal. I'm looking to enter long if the stock can manage to CLOSE above the last candle high(BUY). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below (SL) and a price target above it(TP-50%,move SL to breakeven), then using the close below the 10SMA as my trailing stop loss. **Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level(SL).
UNG Testing Critical Levels! Will the Trend Continue or Reverse?30-Minute Timeframe Analysis
* Trend Overview: UNG is recovering from previous lows, forming an upward trendline. The price recently tested resistance at $17.29, showing hesitation for further upside. However, keep in mind that the market can gap up or down at the open, which could significantly shift the dynamics of this analysis. Traders must re-evaluate and adapt to price action as the session unfolds.
* Key Levels:
* Support: $16.50 and $15.47 are key levels to watch if the price pulls back, especially after any gap down.
* Resistance: $17.29 and $18.00 are immediate levels for a breakout or rejection. A gap up could push the price directly toward higher resistance zones.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Slight bearish divergence indicates a potential pullback or consolidation, but gaps can quickly invalidate this signal.
* Volume: Lower momentum suggests caution; any gap up or down must be supported by a surge in volume for confirmation.
1-Hour GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights
* Key Gamma Levels:
* Positive GEX: $17.50 and $18.00 are strong call resistance zones, acting as upside barriers unless a gap up adds momentum.
* Negative GEX: $16.00 and $15.00 provide strong put support, offering downside protection unless a gap down creates further pressure.
* Options Metrics:
* IVR: Elevated at 62.3, indicating premium selling opportunities.
* Calls vs. Puts: Bullish skew with calls dominating at 113.2%, reflecting market expectations for upward movement.
* Actionable Gamma Zones:
* Bullish Scenario: A gap up above $17.50 could trigger a gamma squeeze, propelling the price toward $18.00 or $18.50.
* Bearish Scenario: A gap down below $16.50 might increase put activity, driving the price toward $15.50 or lower.
Trade Scenarios
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Break and hold above $17.29, or after a gap up that sustains above $17.50.
* Target: $18.00 and $18.50.
* Stop-Loss: Below $16.80.
* Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Breakdown below $16.50, or after a gap down that fails to reclaim $16.80.
* Target: $15.50 and $15.00.
* Stop-Loss: Above $16.80.
Important Note for Traders
* Markets are dynamic, and gaps can change the outlook entirely. Reassess price action at the open and adjust your strategy accordingly.
* For additional technical analysis on UNG or any other ticker, feel free to contact me. I’ll be happy to assist you with a detailed analysis.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your research and trade responsibly.
UNG on the upswing?UNG has now closed above the 200 Simple DMA for the last five days; a feat last achieved over two years ago.
As well, the 200 SDMA is also turning green, indicating possible long-term bullish momentum.
Next resistance is around 17.00 at previous swing high. A breach above that should clear the way to price discovery at 21.00 area.
Polar Vortex TradeEvery winter in the Eastern United States,
the polar vortex trade becomes the big winner in Natural Gas
once the weather services identify the timing.
Looking at UNG, you can see on the chart the cup basing pattern proceeding the move,
and this weekend you can note the 20% upside breakout in price, as traders commit to price.
The move in Natural Gas Futures shows a similar % move, rising sharply from $3 to $4
My advise here for those who might wish enter long on UNG
is to wait for a sharp pullback back towards $15 Support
It may take a while to get there, but risk reward
favors a continued sharp upside seasonal move,... that looks to be just getting started.
UNG 18.03 Close
12/30/24
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
Where market going Markets having some trouble up here looking like wants lower
Still think we can test highs 610-620 when big guys come jan 5
Weekly close 15.65This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Markets Ambivalent Why Still See 620 But Get A HedgeGuys this market can drop anytime
look 10 year and talks tarfs talks
real state broke, small banks broke
inflation still up don't get fooled
Jobs Bad guys if everything is so fantastic why why why we cutting rates
ask urself that wow booming economy soft landing great jobs inflation down but cutting rates that's why I say play charts pure TA no free market any more
billion dollar company beats by 5 cents seriously
stock buy back don't worry no money fed loan u 0 interest to buy Ur own shares and still beat earnings keep beating earnings really really really any one else see this well all coming roost boys Feb March get ready money good money shorting
UNG: Why I Chose UNG for Tomorrow’s Trading - Dec. 13, 2024After reviewing today’s market setup, I decided to focus on UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) for tomorrow’s trading. Here’s a breakdown of my thought process and key observations:
Key Reasons for Choosing UNG:
1. Clear Technical Levels:
* $15.00 is a significant level of interest with strong bullish positioning reflected in options data (highest positive GEX level). A breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend.
* $14.50 serves as a critical support level, with heavy Put interest (-66.77% GEX). A breakdown below this could lead to bearish momentum.
*
2. Options Sentiment:
* Calls dominate with a 133.7% GEX skew, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the options market. This provides an opportunity for both momentum trades to the upside or a contrarian approach if the level fails.
*
3. Volatility Setup:
* With an IVR of 39.8 and IVx average at 69.6, the stock presents a good balance of volatility for active trading without being overly erratic. This makes it an attractive candidate for controlled setups.
*
4. Risk/Reward Profile:
* The proximity to key levels ($15.00 resistance and $14.50 support) creates a manageable risk/reward ratio. I can set tight stop-losses while targeting the next significant GEX levels.
*
5. Sector Opportunity:
* Natural gas has been moving with increased volume and volatility recently. This sectoral activity often translates to heightened trading opportunities.
Questions for Fellow Traders:
* What’s your opinion on UNG for tomorrow?
* Do you see the bullish momentum continuing, or do you think there’s a higher likelihood of a breakdown below $14.50?
* Are there any fundamental or macroeconomic factors I might be overlooking that could impact natural gas tomorrow?
Let me know your thoughts! Trading is always better when we share ideas and refine our setups together. 😊
Pull Back Continues Be Patient. 620 Still TargetAs We Pull Back I noticed
UNG INTC Has Relative Strength
Meaning Market Down Stock Up
So I bought Both
UNG Retest of 200 DMA ResistanceUNG is testing the 200 DMA resistance for the 7th. time since May 2023.
A successful daily close above the 200 DMA should lead to the next level of resistance at around $21.
Ung is ready for the liftoff if we don't close below last weekThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
UNG ETF for NATURAL GAS - READ THE NOTES IMPORTANTNow Nat Gas is trading for $2.3 per BTU
In Europe it sells much higher between $70 and $100 per BTU
The Biden Administration over regulated the Nat Gas industry in the USA, and many users of the commodity switched to other fuels like Coal for example and Solar and Wind. Ineficient.
NAT GAS coupled with Scrubbing Technology is litterally 99.9% clean. Dipnts makes great scrubbers.
Now Nat Gas moves in four year cycles, well as you can see when Biden took office it was operating normally at $130 for the UNG.
Finnaly everyone realized that NAT GAs from America is the way to go.
One Liquified Gas Tanker per month keeps the lights on in London.
Gas then is obviously the way to go, not wind nor solar.
EEUU had been supplied by Iran through QATAR, this is theoretical but super likely. Trump will reopen our energy industry, but the damage the Biden White House made is expensive. We could be facing shortages, as gas storage deposit have been partially depleted. and Production costs are indeed $7 per BTU at $7 UNG should trade at the conversion near $130 more or less. please do your own work and be diligent.
User of nat gas are looking at the situation and will use likely UNG as a hedge.
I bought some and maybe you should too. This is not financial advise, as you all understand we post to participate together in addressing capital allocation and solving future needs. In this case hedging against volatility.
Daily is 13.55 and 13.05, tomorrow panic ...This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
