UNG trade ideas
Natural Gas Countertrend Rally Position PlanningThis chart is position planning based on the Daily Cycles Target and Countertrend Rally charts published last week.
Patiently waiting for this rally to fail.
UNG puts take advantage of the expected decay.
Enter on confirmed bearish hourly trend change.
Exits:
extreme bullish reversal, exit if hourly down trend fails
bullish daily higher low, exit on hourly uptrend confirmed
bearish continuation, assess situation at each price target
Flatulence is naturalColder and more snow than normal in the areas that drive demand, but is that enough to eat the surplus?
Daily
Support is holding @19.21, 9cent's below the daily setup trend @19.30
Weekly
mostly negative to neutral
Monthly
Patterns
Inverted Hammer on an 8 downtrend = Bullish in a downtrend
Star Doji = Bullish in a downtrend
Gravestone Doji = Bullish in a downtrend
Weather Forcast
UNG (natural gas ETF) 16% up 24% down... My intention was to analyze the NG exchange rate. Even so, I still chose his ETF. The fractal motion is much more visible in this. That is why I would like to present this. It is clear from the movement of the exchange rate that Friday's big fall (7%) was an expected process. The figure clearly shows that a fractal sequence has been completed. It is also clear that the original fractal is copied in a 2: 1 ratio. This copy has been slow for a month now. Therefore, I assume that further movement follows similar regularity. This means that NG and its ETF will turn north in the coming days. The ETF may increase by 16%. But from that level, another decline may begin. Nearly 24%. I am expecting the bottom of the ETF to be 15.44 usd. Then the most interesting thing happens. I assume that NG can start an amazing rise after 14 years. I also recommend this for a longer term investment.
TRADE IDEA: UNG JAN 22/24 LONG CALL VERTICALMetrics:
Max Profit: $164/contract
Max Loss: $36 (assuming mid price fill)
Break Even: 22.36
Delta/Theta: 9.03/-.07
Notes: A seasonality play put on at /NG lows ... . UNG's not my favorite instrument in the world, nor is it the most liquid that far out in time. It's also possible that /NG could trundle lower, since seasonal peak injection generally doesn't occur until later in the year on average.
The pictured setup prices out at .18 bid/.36 mid/.53 ask and would pay well if we get another Polar Vortex. If we don't, we'll you aren't out much ... .