UNG trade ideas
Natural Gas ReversalLarge volume and a wick after an extended down move in Natgas. Also forward curve is bullish relative to spot price. Don't buy UNG because of the roll decay, buy the spread NGH2018-NGJ2018.
Nat Gas - Waiting for DropWatching this channel for a breakdown. Want to see above-average volume. Below 5.90 means another big push down. Watching DGAZ
Buy UNG ranging $7.00 to $7.15all triple and double ETF's such as UGAZ and UVXY always head to zero quickly. They are only short term trades. UNG does not have major support until it gets into the $7.00 to $7.15 range. Once the UNG gets to this range, buy UGAZ, expecting a sharp bounce and able to multiple the gains 3X. This will be a quick bounce and not something you want to marry for months.
Natural Gas Weekly Long Upside weekly play looking decent here.
Long: MKT
Target: TP at 3R+
Stop: 8.15
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT THIS COMING WEEK: FOMC, FOMC, FOMCEven though I don't anticipate doing much trading this coming week running into FOMC, old habits die hard, so, as usual, I'm running through underlyings for possible premium selling setups.
With exchange traded funds, I'm looking for a rank >70 and general implied volatility >35; with individual stocks -- rank >70, implied volatility >50%.
Top Implied Volatility Rank/Implied Volatility Exchange Traded Funds
IYR 71/20
TLT 68/15
XLU 67/19
EWZ 66/38
XLF 66/22
GDX 54/47
XRT 48/21
XLI 40/16
Top Implied Volatility Rank/Implied Volatility Individuals
UNG 97/56
GM 93/31 (Earnings in 52)
GLD 58/20
CSX 85/30 (Earnings in 30)
ORCL 84/25 (Earnings in 4)
GS 82/30 (Earnings in 38)
FXE 71/11
As you can see, there isn't much there that meet my general criteria: EWZ and UNG. When I've played UNG, it is usually as a directional seasonality play, and as you can see by the chart, we've already passed the seasonal low, which historically occurs in Oct/Nov. With EWZ, I'm already in a play.
ORCL announces in four days, so that might be playable, assuming implied volatility ramps up dramatically.
All that being said, it's FOMC week, which usually militates in favor of hand sitting. My guess is that the rate hike's already priced in here, so market movement will be, if anything, "all about the talk" of how the Fed views the economy moving forward. Frankly, this can't really be known at this point. For example, some of the recent market movement in various sectors depends on speculation that a good deal of these stimulatory programs the new U.S. President is proposing come to pass. The reality is that many of these proposed programs (e.g., massive infrastructure improvement) will cost and cost big; set against a backdrop of a now majority Republican Congress that has repeatedly bemoaned the size of the US deficit, it remains to be seen whether these proposals will go anywhere, meet substantial Congressional spending concern headwinds, and have the kind of effect the market is anticipating on the time frame that the market is satisfied with.
One thing's for sure: the US government is a bureaucracy and stuff just never has a tendency to happen "overnight." The question is how patient the market will be ... .
Is Nat Gas ready to break this 8 year down trend?As of today, UNG is still in the downtrend. You should keep watching the move of the next few weeks to make the judgement.
UNG & NG swing trade set-upI plan to let this one set up, but eyeing a long entry for the heart of presumed wave 3 off the lows. Retrace may not be as deep as I've depicted. Taking out the recent high after an initial 3-wave correction could indicate the rally has begun. Higher high could also be a (b) wave in a flat, so I'd put my stop at whatever low is forming.
UNG - 4hHad a position during the heart of (iii) and let it go too soon. Gonna wait to see if wave 1 tops and we see a consolidation in cir-ii.
Cool weather will see gas retrace to pre-drop levelsSee a possible pull back to retest support then slow uptrend
