UNG Cycle Analysis (Short-Term)UNG is potentially putting in another cycle low in this window. Note the red cycle line (cycle low time symmetry). The green cycle line depicts the cycle high window.
UNG trade ideas
the state of UNGFirst, here is how I see the current uptrend unfolding.
The point of this post is to show my thought process. It's not to predict either a top or a bottom here, but merely to point out the current probabilities based on the pattern. The fact that the variations of the count on 4H have opposite implications on direction mean it's not worth risking money here at this juncture.
Looking at the daily chart, what I plan to do is to see how the next major correction (which has not started yet) unfolds. Because it can certainly continue higher, I don't want to get in front of the correction. Where and how the correction terminates, however, should help to provide more clarity in defining the nature of this uptrend.
Finding support around the prior wave 4 or the 61.8% retrace level, and with a corrective abc structure will go a long way toward a bullish outcome.
Possible end of rally from march nearing.Seems to be forming an ending diagonal in wave 5 to complete an impulsive move from March.
A good correction expected in the coming months of the rally.
UNG Short on technical resistance and bearish fundamentalsShort UNG at 8.45 with a price target of 7.30 and a stop of 9.30. There is long term lateral resistance around ~$9.00 and broadening wedge resistance at this current level. I wouldn't hesitate either to put a shallower stop on this trade. Lately much of the bull move can be attributed to weather concerns in the Gulf. As of this writing the only current TS's trajectory is into the North Atlantic and the investigation (L99) which could enter the Gulf late Sunday is currently looking weaker. In addition the reliance on Gulf natural gas production has subsided substantially in the last decade so the effect of storms on domestic production is much less than it was a decade ago when hurricanes would cause violent pops in Henry Hub natural gas prices. Lastly, as we enter the shoulder months demand for power burn should subside some and the forward futures roll yields a gain on the ETF when short as forward months are in contango going into the winter. (If you follow my 10000 USD base account recommendations I recommend shorting 300 shares of UNG)
UNG on the up. THIS IS MASSIVE!!All energy stocks are on the up with most already having bottomed. The UNG fund follows the ngas and the UNG physically cannot go any lower. This is a no Stop loss trade .
Closing the overgap likely to create resistance $UGAZ We seeing bullish rotation of the "point of control." Be aware of the overhead "gap" that remains as it will be an opportunity for trapped longs to exit trades with minimal losses.
We will likely see longs who accumulated through Mar/Apr/May take some profits. These actions are likely to create some near term resistance. This may also result in prices dropping to confirm support and build additional market structure around $8 base before attempting higher price discovery.
Good Luck!
bulls attempting to absob supply $UGAZ $DGAZ $NG_FBulls are attempting absorb the supply evidence by the higher lows present. The theme remains that demand exceeds supply.
Given that prices closed on support I believe a LONG entry is reasonable with a "tight stop" as shorts are buying into resistance.
I believe we are seeing strong hands maintain their positions while new entries respect that they are chasing while a few shorts sneak in.
I still don't feel rushed to enter carelessly into the "widow maker."
My re-entries are noted below.
Good Luck!
UNG retake look with technical analysis It appears at this point, the price may drop to where the arrows are pointing at, before going back up. Fundamentally, oil prices are on the rise and the use of natural gas is falling due to the hot weather of summer.
Stay tuned for both technical and fundamental, because you need both to analyse
Theme remains bullish but are longs buying risk here The theme remains bullish for "natty" as we rally off of support after identifying bullish absorption. We can see 3 months of ACCUMLATION here so it difficult to estimate an upside target but we can identify some anticipated levels of resistance at $8.00, $8.30 & $8.80 as well as "gaps" created during the "markdown."
We saw a decrease in cumulative selling following buy our first increase in buying demand since March 2016. Again this looks bullish.
Despite this great "rally" the ease at which prices continue to trade higher is contracting while volume remains pretty constant so I speculate we are seeing some profit taking here. We will like return to $7.00 and shake out weak bulls while assessing how much supply remains available to control before we sustain any more gains.
The volume profile (purple area on the right) defines "value" and is showing that prices are entering a "low volume area." This could allow prices to test the $8.00 level then we can appreciate that prices are trading above "value" and likely encounter shorts and long liquidation. This process of test and retest will continue allowing rotation of the "point of control high" allowing balance to be maintained among buyer and sellers.
MY OPINION: New longs are chasing and entering a trade exposed to downside risk. I would wait for an entry confirming support.
Good Luck!
UNG outlook with technical analysis This is a possible outcome of UNG... Stay tuned with the technical and fundamental (as well as my self).
UNG - 15mUNG is very close to signaling a breakdown. I'm already short, but one could short a break of the lower trendline, this morning's low, or the 6.29 signal level. Stops above this morning's high, wave 2, or where ever you're comfortable. Short-term target is the 5.70/.90 region. Longer timeframe targets are in the blue box, and more refined numbers will be posted IF price breaks down.
Be advised, this presumed move down is nearing the end of a long-term correction. Price could respond strongly upward once the pattern completes. Longer-term traders would benefit from waiting for long entry at lower prices.
UNG - 4hI've been posting the red Ending Diagonal count on UNG. This count is falling out of favor with me, mostly due to the size of minute wave i relative to wave iii. With the help of a pro Arkady Yakhnis at www.elliottwavetrader.net I've added the green count. Signal level at 6.29 retains significance, though an impulse to new lows would be expected under the green count versus a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) of v under the red count.
Follow the pros and learn Fib Pinball on Avi Gilburt's site.
UNG - 15mAlt (b) wave (in white) looks to be in jeopardy. Price came to the target without the 3-wave move characteristic of corrective action. The red impulse in wave (c) may be underway. Signal level (adding confirmation of Elliott Wave count probability) at 6.29 hasn't moved for weeks.
UNG ShortNatural Gas broke falling wedge to the downside and failed to regain previous support. RSI trending down and strength in the Dollar in anticipation for June hike - short UNG.
UNG - 30mHadn't looked at this chart recently, but seems price hit my a=c (100%) target on the nose yesterday morning. Follow through on the pattern suggests new lows are possible in coming weeks/months. A new low could represent a major bottom as it would complete the count on a long-term correction. Could be a significant buying opportunity for long swing traders IF it develops. I've drawn it as an ending diagonal pattern - thus the (a)-(b)-(c) to complete wave v - but there's other interpretations, too.
UNG - 1hAppears to be playing out with a corrective move down in the Ending Diagonal red count. Precise path might be difficult to predict, and the closer this gets to a presumed bottom the more dangerous it'll be to hold short. Ending Diagonals tend to reverse strongly back to where they began - much higher in this case.
UNG - 1hCloser view of UNG price action showing the presumed corrective decline into new lows. Wave (c) of v should be an impulse and therefore the most advantageous to trade. Over 7.48 the red bearish count will need reconsideration (again).
UNG - 4hrTook another look at the longer-term structure. Removed former green count. Shifted to an Ending Diagonal count now shown in red. Key levels remain the same on smaller timeframes. Next move down is presumed to be an (a) wave, with (b) and (c) of minute wave v to follow.
UNG - 1hrUNG has been a sideways trade recently, but my green count is now primary (again) after seeing price action these past few days. 6.29 is my new signal level (up from 6.19).
