ung in the channelyesterdays bounce was still in channel . still downward trend with no bullish indicators on 4h and 1d other than being oversold.
UNG trade ideas
UNG - 2hrUNG has reached Fibonacci support in this decline, however wave iii could continue to extend as low as 5.61/5.22 before bouncing in a corrective fashion. IF the decline continues, resistance should be lower for wave iv and (iv) targets.
Positive divergence on MACD does NOT indicate imminent bounce in price under these circumstances, but a corrective bounce would not surprise.
UNG - DailyUNG has reached Fibonacci support for a 3rd wave, although the degree is unclear given the start of this decline. Near-term bounce may reach the high 6s, or perhaps as high as 7.67/8.75. Either way, a corrective 3-wave bounce into resistance sets up another decline, likely below 5.00 or even 4.00.
Positive divergence on MACD still holds, and may continue to hold through waves iv and v.
UNG - 2hr (revised)Bottom of my target box was tested today with 6.47 low. Should 6.47/.38 fail, then I'd expect 5.89 to be tested. Positive divergence still holding on MACD.
Original purple ED count was invalidated 2 days ago. I've revised it here in order to demonstrate that a rally should not necessarily be viewed as a long opportunity - not as a trading suggestion. Resistance at 7.24/.48.
Blue (cyan) triangle count adjusted primarily based on NG futures holding above December low. UNG decay has clearly broken below its 6.91 December low.
Initial indications of a potential bottom would come only with an impulsive 5-wave move higher - breaking above overhead resistance - followed by a 3-wave pullback holding above 50%-61.8% retrace support.
UNG - 15 minElliott Wave pattern nearing completion. Should 6.44 fail, then expecting test of 5.89 region below. Positive divergence still holding on MACD.
(Daily) US Natural Gas // The Shark // IF=THEN ®AMEX:UNG
Are the bulls tired of waiting...? $5.50 as ignition...
SHARK:
Point B:
61.8% XA
Point C:
113% to 161% AB
Point D:
161% to 224% BC
88.6% to 113% XC
Target:
38.2% to 100% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
UNG - 1hrDetail on minor waves and Fibonacci relationships discussed on related daily analysis.
I'm holding a speculative long position which will be dropped on a break below the blue box.
UNG - DailyUNG posted new lows for the week. Positive divergence on MACD is still holding.
Bullish alternative:
Lower trend line of presumed ending diagonal was exceeded. Possible today's fall was an overshoot. Probability this will be a lasting low in natural gas can only be confirmed by an impulsive rally with 5 waves up, and 3 back down holding the coming low.
Bearish alternatives:
The cyan (blue) triangle remains valid, especially considering February's low is holding over the NG continuous contract low from December. Bounce should not exceed 9.27 in this count. A corrective rally over 9.27 would indicate the yellow alternative with another lower low to follow into the Spring.
UNG - WeeklyAvoid a common error with commodity Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) by not attempting a long-term buy and hold strategy. ETFs like UNG, USO, and similar ETPs suffer from decay, therefore not fully capturing movements of the underlying commodity. Because of this decay, weekly indicators such as MACD flat line to practical irrelevance.
My analysis focuses on shorter timeframes, daily or less, where UNG has similar Elliott Wave patterns to the underlying.
UNG - 2h Potential BottomToday's price action achieved the minimum target for an ending diagonal into support. A potential bottom, possibly a significant long-term low. Bearish alternatives include a potential larger triangle. Also, possible the Elliott Wave degree count is off by one, which resolves into another lower low indicated in yellow. Re; yellow alt, reference daily UNG analysis to see how initial impulsive Minute and Minuette counts were subjective.
UNG - DailyBear market in Natural Gas nearing resolution. Elliott Wave counts approaching completion. Impulsive rally thru UNG 13.10 suggests significant low already in place.
Note positive divergence forming on MACD (as well as other indicators not shown).
UNG - 2hPreparing for a long position in Natural Gas on what appears to be the nearing completion of a major correction. Elliot Wave count shown may resolve on one more low. Note positive divergence in MACD.
UNG -- COVERED CALL IDEATruth be told, I was burned somewhat by UNG this year, as I was expecting a seasonality bounce which has not come due to mild temperatures associated with El Nino. Moreover, in 20-20 hindsight, a debit spread was probably not the way to go due to inflexibility of the setup if you are just totally directionally wrong or if your timing as to the directionality is off.
In any event, and although volatility in the underlying has diminished somewhat since the making of a significant low around 7.00, there remains sufficient volatility in UNG to go covered call here.
The setup:
100 Shares UNG at 7.69
1 Feb 19 8 Short Call
Entire Package: 6.91 debit (meaning your break even for the setup is $6.91/share, excluding fees commissions)
Max Profit: $109 (if called away at $8)
Tips: Look to take off the entire setup in profit before expiry if profit approaches what you would get if called away. Roll out the short call to a later expiry if it is nearing worthless; look to roll to a strike that at least exceeds your cost basis in the underlying.
Swing trade on UNGA potential swing trade on UNG off a downtrend breakout from Sept 2015.
Target price: 10.15
Buy opportunity: zone between 8.85 and 9.05
OPTIONS TIP -- ROLL YOUR COVERED CALL SHORT UP, EVEN IF ITMI recently set up a covered call in UNG, with the short call strike at 8.00 (Feb 19 expiry). Price has hurriedly broken my short call strike and is "in the money." What do I do now?
One option is to do absolutely nothing. After all, my expectation when I put on the setup was to get called away at 8.00 at expiry or take the whole setup off in profit prior to that, so all is fine and dandy from that perspective.
Nevertheless, I am not one to pass by potential, additional opportunities in a setup that has gone better than planned, so one thing I should at least look at is whether I can roll the short call up to a higher strike for an additional credit such that my "call away" price is better and my cost basis in my underlying is reduced even further. Depending on how I feel about the trade and whether I can get a credit for the roll, I can either roll to a higher, in the money strike, or to one that is out of the money (with the important point being getting an additional credit; if you can't do that, don't roll).
In this particular case, there's not much I can do that's sensible at this moment in time. The only expiration in which I can both improve the short call strike (to 9) and receive a credit for it (an additional .40) is the Jan 2017 expiry, so I'm going to watch and wait on a potential roll more toward expiry, at which time some weeklies might become available that would have half strikes to use (e.g., 8.5). After all, getting called away at 8.5 beats getting called away at 8.00 ... .
OPTIONS TIP: COVERED CALL CANDIDATE TRADE SELECTIONRecently, I've posted a number of ideas of covered call setups, but which one or ones do I choose? I can naturally try to put all of them on, but for various reasons I may not want to do that ... . So how do I cull out the wheat from the chaff? The UNG, GPRO, HUN, MW, and JCP ideas are the result of quite a bit of work already; out of these, are some better than the others?
Naturally, the selection choice is somewhat subjective, but I do think a couple of these have slightly more going for them than others.
Were I to be stranded on a dessert island and could only take 1 or 2 covered calls to the island with me, I'd probably go for UNG and JCP. Why? They are the most liquid underlyings of the bunch, which at least partially insures a fairer price for my setup than the other plays; bid/ask spreads are wider in the others, which potentially makes getting fills at the mid price more of a headache. UNG and JCP also offer weeklies, which offer a little bit of more flexibility in terms of rolling my short call (although this is not the kind of deal breaker it is when I'm doing short strangles, where I really want to have those weeklies to do short-term rolls with if I need to).
Were I to have to rank the plays, it would be a close call between GPRO and HUN, after the UNG and JCP plays.
GPRO's not as liquid as UNG and JCP; then again, its liquidity isn't terrible, it offers weeklies, and has quite a bit of volatility in it such that the premium received for the short call is fairly rich (in fact, its IV is higher than in UNG, JCP, or HUN), but a potential downside is that I'd have to devote about $1700 in buying power to the trade (100 GPRO at 18.22; Feb 19th 19 short call) and that might of concern to smaller account holders.
HUN has better liquidity than GPRO, but no weeklies, but it's also cheaper than GPRO, so ties up less buying power.
MW is the least liquid of the bunch and has no monthlies ... .
The other factor that you might want to look at is correlation. For example, I've already got a long natural gas play on via CHK. Do I really want to increase my exposure to natural gas?
All of these factors -- liquidity, availability of weeklies, current implied volatiity, correlation, buying power -- should be evaluated in considering which plays to go with ... .
Developing Falling Wedge. Sharp rebound is around the corner$UGAZ, $DGAZ, $SPY, $OIL, $USO, $BNO, etc
Natural gas or oil provides more return in this recovery?One of the great feature I like with TradingView is the ability to compare different ticker via arithmetic addition/division/subtraction.
From here, I'm comparing between UNG and USO. Since both are directly related to energy, tough choice huh?
Charting it out helps a lot and we can see a clear breakout trend between the ratios!
Clearly Natural Gas (UNG) might possibility provide the best return for your money on energy as compared to Oil (USO) over the long run.
------------------------------------------
** Note: USO have been severely under performing since 2008 after the recovery of oil price due to the price difference between each month's oil futures contract. It will not be a clear reflection of the actual market.
This is only if you're considering between USO or UNG. Try it out by charting other ETF/ETNs/stocks by yourself!
UNG (NATURAL GAS ETF) LONG IDEAHi!
I think natural gas is going to make a good move in the nearest time.
As we can see gas was in the range for some time with the following support line breakthrough. However, the breakthrough was made on a low volume and it was a fake move. Just in couple of days was another breakthrough. Gas has made an opportunity to break the resistance line on a high volume. So, now we see our etf at previous support line.
Thus, a pullback has already happened and there are good chances that we'll see a new bullish wave. In this case I would recommend to open a long positiong at 21.81 with targets at 23.85 and 26.4 (basically, I don't set my profit targets when I open a new position. I look at volume and price action to make a decision concesrning when I shoud close the position). However, if the price will go below it's support line we can just close our long position or we can immediately reverse our current position and open a short. It can be a pretty good bearish wave then.
$UNG $NGAS Its that timeSeasonal Play ..o durr, right ? it gets cold people need cheap heating with Natgas at 3.65 its a bargain right now. IMO , I almost feel like todays 19.10 and lower was the perfect entry and I chickened out,
options are cheap right now,
Nov 14 22.00 calls are trading at .16 just yesterday they were at .21 so $5 cheaper,
DEC 14 25 calls are trading at .24 slightly higher than yesterday go figure
How ever looking at this chart i set up there the trend channel that i set up with a few touches, but at the beginning of Nov 2013 there a clear signal IMHO !!
HAPPY Trading hoping to make these my last few trades of 2014,
The SPY and DIA are so unclear right now
