UNG trade ideas
UNG - 15 minEntering a strong confluence of fib resistance matching Elliott Wave targets for wave (iv). At least a corrective reaction from the 6.70/.83 region is expected. This is a good place to take profits on any longs, or at least hedge them. I'm adding shorts looking for a new all-time low, but if a move down appears corrective into alt (ii) support, I'll take those shorts off early.
UNG - 1 hrApproaching inflection point on UNG near confluence of 1.00 fib extension of waves (i)-(ii) and 38.2 retrace measured from waves (ii)-(iii). Anticipating decline in wave (v), though corrective decline into alt wave (ii) - shown in blue - would suggest the possibility that a significant low was seen at 5.79.
Took profits on BOIL. Only remaining shares were bought very near the v of (iii) lows. I have some DGAZ purchased on 3/11. May add more today. So, I'm barely net long with 2x leverage, while hedged with 3x leverage. Will be net short if I add DGAZ.
UNG support on the RSI daily, plus divergence spottedI don't use divergence much but it's here for you to see. So there's positive divergence, but what's more important is that back in late 2015 the RSI daily down trend was broken. That spot where it was broken became support, so I drew a horizontal line at support. It's reaching this support line for the first time.
UNG - 15minPotential corrective paths to wave (iv) resistance shown. Positive divergence on MACD may continue to hold through wave (v) into the low 5s, also seen on longer timeframes. A 3-wave corrective bounce indicates wave (iv) even as high as the low UNG 7s.
A bullish potential will be depicted only if a 5-wave pattern develops, at which point a corrective retrace support region will be identified for potential long entries.
UNG - 1hrWave (iii) likely completed. Bounce off 161.8% region suggests resistance for wave (iv) could be visited this week. Over UNG 7.20 in an impulsive fashion suggests wave circle v is complete already at the recent low. However, base case is that resistance will turn price down to the low 5.00 region, with possible washout near 4.00. Wave (iv) is technically valid until the wave (i) low in mid-7s is taken out, although an impulsive structure forming lower would be a bullish indication.
Long positions are aggressive. Better to be cautious; wait for 5 waves up followed by a 3 wave correction. A bullish pattern would only be confirmed on taking out the presumed 5-wave high, should one occur. New shorts should wait for wave (iv) resistance.
ung in the channelyesterdays bounce was still in channel . still downward trend with no bullish indicators on 4h and 1d other than being oversold.
UNG - 2hrUNG has reached Fibonacci support in this decline, however wave iii could continue to extend as low as 5.61/5.22 before bouncing in a corrective fashion. IF the decline continues, resistance should be lower for wave iv and (iv) targets.
Positive divergence on MACD does NOT indicate imminent bounce in price under these circumstances, but a corrective bounce would not surprise.
UNG - DailyUNG has reached Fibonacci support for a 3rd wave, although the degree is unclear given the start of this decline. Near-term bounce may reach the high 6s, or perhaps as high as 7.67/8.75. Either way, a corrective 3-wave bounce into resistance sets up another decline, likely below 5.00 or even 4.00.
Positive divergence on MACD still holds, and may continue to hold through waves iv and v.
UNG - 2hr (revised)Bottom of my target box was tested today with 6.47 low. Should 6.47/.38 fail, then I'd expect 5.89 to be tested. Positive divergence still holding on MACD.
Original purple ED count was invalidated 2 days ago. I've revised it here in order to demonstrate that a rally should not necessarily be viewed as a long opportunity - not as a trading suggestion. Resistance at 7.24/.48.
Blue (cyan) triangle count adjusted primarily based on NG futures holding above December low. UNG decay has clearly broken below its 6.91 December low.
Initial indications of a potential bottom would come only with an impulsive 5-wave move higher - breaking above overhead resistance - followed by a 3-wave pullback holding above 50%-61.8% retrace support.
UNG - 15 minElliott Wave pattern nearing completion. Should 6.44 fail, then expecting test of 5.89 region below. Positive divergence still holding on MACD.
(Daily) US Natural Gas // The Shark // IF=THEN ®AMEX:UNG
Are the bulls tired of waiting...? $5.50 as ignition...
SHARK:
Point B:
61.8% XA
Point C:
113% to 161% AB
Point D:
161% to 224% BC
88.6% to 113% XC
Target:
38.2% to 100% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
UNG - 1hrDetail on minor waves and Fibonacci relationships discussed on related daily analysis.
I'm holding a speculative long position which will be dropped on a break below the blue box.
UNG - DailyUNG posted new lows for the week. Positive divergence on MACD is still holding.
Bullish alternative:
Lower trend line of presumed ending diagonal was exceeded. Possible today's fall was an overshoot. Probability this will be a lasting low in natural gas can only be confirmed by an impulsive rally with 5 waves up, and 3 back down holding the coming low.
Bearish alternatives:
The cyan (blue) triangle remains valid, especially considering February's low is holding over the NG continuous contract low from December. Bounce should not exceed 9.27 in this count. A corrective rally over 9.27 would indicate the yellow alternative with another lower low to follow into the Spring.
UNG - WeeklyAvoid a common error with commodity Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) by not attempting a long-term buy and hold strategy. ETFs like UNG, USO, and similar ETPs suffer from decay, therefore not fully capturing movements of the underlying commodity. Because of this decay, weekly indicators such as MACD flat line to practical irrelevance.
My analysis focuses on shorter timeframes, daily or less, where UNG has similar Elliott Wave patterns to the underlying.
UNG - 2h Potential BottomToday's price action achieved the minimum target for an ending diagonal into support. A potential bottom, possibly a significant long-term low. Bearish alternatives include a potential larger triangle. Also, possible the Elliott Wave degree count is off by one, which resolves into another lower low indicated in yellow. Re; yellow alt, reference daily UNG analysis to see how initial impulsive Minute and Minuette counts were subjective.
UNG - DailyBear market in Natural Gas nearing resolution. Elliott Wave counts approaching completion. Impulsive rally thru UNG 13.10 suggests significant low already in place.
Note positive divergence forming on MACD (as well as other indicators not shown).
UNG - 2hPreparing for a long position in Natural Gas on what appears to be the nearing completion of a major correction. Elliot Wave count shown may resolve on one more low. Note positive divergence in MACD.
UNG -- COVERED CALL IDEATruth be told, I was burned somewhat by UNG this year, as I was expecting a seasonality bounce which has not come due to mild temperatures associated with El Nino. Moreover, in 20-20 hindsight, a debit spread was probably not the way to go due to inflexibility of the setup if you are just totally directionally wrong or if your timing as to the directionality is off.
In any event, and although volatility in the underlying has diminished somewhat since the making of a significant low around 7.00, there remains sufficient volatility in UNG to go covered call here.
The setup:
100 Shares UNG at 7.69
1 Feb 19 8 Short Call
Entire Package: 6.91 debit (meaning your break even for the setup is $6.91/share, excluding fees commissions)
Max Profit: $109 (if called away at $8)
Tips: Look to take off the entire setup in profit before expiry if profit approaches what you would get if called away. Roll out the short call to a later expiry if it is nearing worthless; look to roll to a strike that at least exceeds your cost basis in the underlying.
Swing trade on UNGA potential swing trade on UNG off a downtrend breakout from Sept 2015.
Target price: 10.15
Buy opportunity: zone between 8.85 and 9.05
