UNG trade ideas
Nat Gas (UNG, NG) Retracement LongConsidering a trend continuation long in NG here. Per the attached charts (also using futures for zoning), we've had a decent pullback and are nearing intermediate-term (daily) demand. Using the futures chart, there are multiple 15-minute demand zones stacked 3.058-3.006. So, if we penetrate that zone (flirting with it now), look for micro timeframe reversal cues. Looking for a solid swing from this one, so we'll see what happens! Quick take, but want to get this posted as the trade is setting up as I type.
Godspeed!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
UNG longAMEX:UNG 's hourly chart shows both a double top and a double bottom pattern. Neither of them has reached their price target, yet. There's also both a rising (intermediate term) and a falling (short-term) trend channel visible.
On the face of it, the bearish patterns seem to have a bit more credibility: Double tops have a higher win rate and a higher profit factor than double bottoms, though both are very profitable. And the down trend is the more established of the two trends.
That said, the more recent signs point to strength. The EIA has just published weekly storage numbers, which proved to be higher (more bearish) than anticipated. In my experience, natural gas fundamentals are often confounding, and when there's a logical tension between a fundamental signal (bearish, in this case) and the reaction to it (price is up since the EIA announcement), I trust the reaction more than the signal.
So, long UNG calls. My first target is $7 (or $6.99), as the chart suggests.
UNG short term bull trend reversal.Got into this trade yesterday, but wanted to share. Starting on Sept 6/7th TPO graph was spending more time moving higher, PoC reflects that & a TON of SP's on the downside.
Consolidated yesterday just under lower band of vwap (quarterly) & with today's move it is now sitting just above vwap (q) and seems to be using it as support. Will monitor to close.
Using 20/50/100/200ema as support now with today's move. Last time I got caught holding 40% of my shares when UNG hit $8. Be careful with that level, monitor.
As usual chart times frames are from daily down to 5ming. I mainly use 15min-1hr.
Vwap I tend to use quarterly but also vary time frames for confirmations and/or trend reversals.
Thanks & happy trading!
UNG Testing Complex Inverted H&S NecklineUnited States Natural Gas Fund(UNG) is testing the neckline of a complex inverted head and shoulders pattern with an open and close above the neckline on a gap up in price today.
Based on the orange line measurement taken from the lowest point of the head to the neckline we get $1.89 which can be applied to the opening price today above the neckline and gives an upper price target of $9.92 to watch for which is in the same area as the red horizonal resistance level stemming from the early march spike up to and rejection from $10.
Inverted complex H&S patterns have a 71% success rate which means we multiply $1.89 by .71 to give us an initial upper price target of $9.33. Assuming that we have a successful breakout of the neckline to confirm the inverted H&S pattern profit-taking should be begin at the $9.33 level and peak in the $9.92-$10 range for short-term traders. Personally, I tend to just raise my stop-loss level as price moves higher rather than selling at the upper targets in case price continues to move above the projected targets. This gives me wiggle room for price to fluctuate at resistance/target levels while also ensuring that the trade is profitable should price reverse and I get stopped out.
The lower PPO indicator shows the green line rising after crossing back above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum. Both lines trending above the 0 level indicates intermediate to long-term bullish momentum.
The lower TDI indicator shows the green RSI line rising above the 60 level which indicates short-term bullish price trend. The green RSI line is also trending outside of the upper white Bollinger Band which indicates extreme bullish price trend; generally you want to remain long when the RSI is trading outside of the upper BBand. Price tends to correct to the downside when the RSI line falls back below the upper Band so keep an eye on that when it happens if you are are short-term trader. Overall, when the RSI is trending between the 40-80 levels as it has been sine mid-June the the intermediate to long-term price trend is considered bullish.
Overall, UNG is looking strong with bullish trend and momentum indicators as the price of Natural Gas moves higher along with crude oil.
My buy price was $6.93 putting me up about +15% on the trade so far. Stop-loss is still sitting at $6.54 which is where I set it the day I bought, likely will move it somewhere around $7.50 tomorrow to keep me in profit should price reject at the neckline. Should price continue seeing strength this week the stop-loss will be moved closer to $8, just below the neckline.
Info on complex head and shoulders bottom patterns: www.thepatternsite.com
$UNG $BOIL $NG! - Natural Gas Game PlanThis has been pretty crowded with people trying to sink their life savings into the bottom here. No clear picture how long we are going to range here in the accumulation zone. Small positions spot trades can be added when we hit the bottom channel, but the real play will be when it gets above this zone. That would be the time go all in for a long term CALL
UNG Wyckoff Accumulation PatternUnited States Natural Gas Fund appears to be in the process of heading into the Back Up(BU) phase of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern after levelling off in the $7 area after seeing a ~75% decline from the August '22 high near $35. There is also an ascending triangle pattern forming in phases C and D which tend to result in higher prices as UNG puts in a series of higher lows. What we want to see as a sign of strength going forward is for price to move above the upper blue line of the triangle pattern and follow the trajectory of the orange arrow which represents the anticipated path for price.
I've been in UNG since 7/20 with a buy price of $7.36. Current stop-loss order is at $6.61. No upper price target for now, just watching and waiting to see if price can break above the short-term resistance level at the upper triangle line near $7.85.
Using volatility for income trades - UNG 59% ivNatural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there.
UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already had a nasty sell off for months since fall of 2022. With headlines of hot summers and potential higher energy use, Im comfortable nibbling at premium trades in UNG.
UNG continues to rise UNG the ETF that tracks natural gas futures has continued on a significant uptrend since June
1st The 2H chart suggests to be that the trend will continue this upcoming week. UNG is now
above the POC line of the long multi-session volume profile. UNG has had support from the
VWAP line representing two standard deviations below the mean. In recent days, price has
crossed that mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum. The volatility oscillator indicator
is showing bullish volatility while the RSI is high above 80 and staying there without any fade
to suggest bearish divergence. Overall, I will continue to run my position without any partial
take profit. My target is the VWAP line that is two standard deviations above the mean
anchored VWAP and so presently about 7.85. Any new trade would have the same target
while setting the stop loss just below the POC line.
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended
in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred
at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold
area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP
and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero
lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath.
I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring
increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster
in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling
lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity.
Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the
Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
UNG - a composite operators dreamVolumetric accumulation on UNG, strong bullish bias on energy sector and notable accumulation on natural gas occurring on similar timeframes. Bullish divergence on multiple oscillators. Price has migrated and stabilized past the long term down-trend. This could be a sleeper for awhile, but primary harmonic profit target is around 17 bucks; the mid-point of the butterfly pattern.
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April
and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume
profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is
deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under
the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable
that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope
of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL
while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile,
and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss
is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep
finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement.
A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off
the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level.
UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to
resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on
natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
Natural gas trying to stabilize & reverse after steep downtrendNatural gas has been in a strong downtrend for the past year but finally sellers look exhausted and prices have stabilized. New lows failed to stick in the beginning of May which has led to a reversal higher.
Sets up for a decent risk-reward trade to the upside, but stops and time-frame is important.