Natural Gas Downtrend ContinuesI still love it. Seriously. But I have to wait and you can see why - the stochastic indicators have only turned up on the daily time frame and we are now caught in this downtrend channel. I've show the lower limit which will hopefully hold, but I would be reluctant taking bearish bets on natural gas from here on in.
UNG trade ideas
Yeah, its an unfortunate confluence nowAn overhead resistance and a tweaked channel have colluded to make a an area that looks like a strong short for natural gas. The bars have changed colour and I think it could be a nice short play. I have not year decided how far this will go, please remember I have previously stated we are possibly in a bear flag. Also, don't misunderstand - I am bullish on natural gas long term, but since its breakout from its huge decline it could be time for a breather!
Natural Gas: Possible baby-bull flag inside a larger bear flagI'm very bullish on Natural Gas over the long-term. We have had a confirmed breakout bullishly from a descending triangle going back years, but now that we have had our early nascent move it might be time to pull back a bit. Of course all is invalidated if it breaks through the overhead support, but for now I'm seeing a small move up with a subsequent larger move down.
The Natural Gas Bull Market May Have BegunUNG had a spectatcular move the other day (once again I was on the wrong side of the trade but I the ship has been corrected). Rather than buying shorts after a rise in UNG, it appears like a bull market is starting so dips must be bought. The massive descending triangle going back to 2017 seems to have been broken with an open and close on the daily charts. Worringly though there appears to be a small bear flag on this breakout, so don't get disheartened. So long as we stay above the maroon line we should be all right.
UNG may have bottomed...From the chart we see a near perfect hit of a 1.27 extension of an impulse wave in the 11.5 region which may have marked a bottom in Natural gas, I say this because in recent weeks we are not seeing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows take hold. Furthermore there has been aggressive buying in related stocks such as SWN and RRC which may be an early indication of a change in the market trend. Using a Fibonacci trend based timing tool (horizontally w/ regard ot time as opposed to vertically for price) we see had relevance in predicting price reversals (from the 1 marked with a long vertical line in the graph) we are coming up on the 1.27 this Monday, it will be very interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.
UNG Performance During 2012 and 2016 RalliesThis is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step.
UNG follows the price of natural gas fairly well, UNG does experience rolling decay when futures are in contago. Contago is typical for natural gas futures. Because of the rolling decay holding UNG long term is not a good strategy. While not nearly as bad as UGAZ it still reduces possible gains over the long term.
UNG is predictable and a good option for novice investors looking to get into natural gas trading.
UNG would be a good hold for the daily cycle and a ok hold for the weekly cycle. Weekly cycle would be positions attempting to take advantage of the seasonal swings.
UNG options may represent one of the greatest opportunities, due to the risk of options having a predictable ETF like UNG to trade them on makes success more achievable.