USD trade ideas
Dollar Reduces Profits as U.S.-China Trade Tension EnduresOn Wednesday, the U.S. dollar was flat in the FX markets. It was when sentiment regarding risk had harmed a report slightly that the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will continue in place through the 2020 election.
This issue remains despite the fact that both sides are trying to wrap up the phase one trade deal today.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which is measuring the greenback versus a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dropped by 0.01% 97.34 in forex trading.
However, improvements in the greenback were also in check by tamer U.S. inflation data.
The said information has bolstered outlooks of the Federal Reserve that will keep interest rates lower for longer.
Last month, the Labor Department testified that its consumer price index climbed 0.2%, missing economists’ predictions of 0.3%.
According to the BMO, the slow-moving pace of consumer price difficulties has persisted despite the lengthy U.S.-China trade war.
The concern is with overall prices taken back by drops in cars and household utilities, and only modest gains in housing.
The bank also added it would “take a more consistent, broad move upward to spark more interest from the Fed.”
A few of the other inflationary indicators, particularly the core PCE, have endured being sluggish somewhat.
Fed To Keep Rates On Hold
Meanwhile, Kansas Federal Reserve President Esther George recommends that it would be suitable for the Fed to keep rates on hold. It is as he refers to the opportunities for subdued inflation to continue.
On the other side, the pound rebounded from lows. It is even as forex news speculation intensifies that the Bank of England will cut interest rates, and U.K. economic growth keeps on being sluggish.
In some forex trading, the GBP/USD pair inched up 0.32% to $1.305. The EUR/USD pair on the flip side was roughly flat at $1.113.
On January 24, the purchasing managers’ evaluations will serve as the first indication of how the U.K.’s economy performed.
According to the Swissquote, the subject is after December’s general election.
Moreover, the USD/JPY pair soared 0.05% to Y109.99. It was when demand for the yen ticked up on the report that tariffs on China will continue in place.
On the flip side, the USD/CAD pair dropped 0.04% to C$1.30. It was as the loonie discovered its grip, underpinned by an upsurge in oil prices.
The prices to gear up a snap of five-day losing streak.
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USD/CNYUSD can fall to 377.20USDUSD/CNYUSD is falling to 377.20USD
(it is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or the provision of an offer to provide investment services. Information, opinions and comments contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services)
usd/inr down trand my idea once check after trade now inr 50% down side move.because major (res) brokan and re test coming after market move up side
Producer Price Index In The United States DeclinesProducer Price Index In The United States Declines
Producers in the United States are the latest victims of what appears to be an economy on the decline. Producer prices in September fell to the lowest they have been in eight months. Moreover, this is contributing to the smallest annual growth in about three years.
A Big Argument For Rate Cuts www.financebrokerage.com
The latest data by the Labor Department is now contributing to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates further. In July of this year, the Fed reduced the cost of borrowing for the first time since 2008. It then followed this with a significant quarter basis point cut on the interest rates. All these are to support the longest economic expansion that has been on track for 11 years.
Decreases in the cost of goods and services in September contributed to the decline in producer price index by 0.3%. Experts have not witnessed such a vast decline since January this year. Moreover, this decline comes on the backdrop of a 0.1% gain registered in August this year.
Reuters previously polled some economists who predicted that the PPI would increase 0.1% in September. They further suggested that this would see the year-on-year PP1 advance with a 1.8% increase. However, in the one year leading up to September this year, the PPI online climbed 1.4%. This increase is the smallest since November 2016.
A Dodgy PPI
In September, the core PPI made a 1.7% increase dating back one year after it had a 1.9% climb in August. Producer prices for many of the other sectors remained unchanged in September after a 0.4% jump in August.
More economists re becoming convinced that the Fed will cut rates further in its meeting this October. The institution is chasing a 2% annual inflation target. A core instrument that it uses to influence monetary decisions, however, increased. The Personal Consumer Expenditures price index rose 1.8% in August on its year-on-year target. This however still undershoots its goal for the year.
50-year low unemployment rate
This week, the Labor Department also reported that unemployment dropped to 3.5%. This is the lowest it has been in half a century. While it is enough cause for optimism, a closer look at the numbers presents some ugly truth. In September, hiring was significantly low compared to August and July. In the private services industry, growth was the lowest it has been in three years. Unlike other months, the announcement by the Labor Department did not affect the financial markets.
Wholesale energy prices also saw a decline this September after slumping 2.5%, which is at par with the decline witnessed in August. Gasoline continued its decline in September after it declined 7.2%, this is a 0.6% further decline compared to August’s 6.6%.
The cost of services registered a 0.2% decline, a 2.7% decrease in the wholesaling of vehicle and machinery is the leading cause for this. The prices of wholesale foods saw a 0.3% rebound in September contributed to by a 26.8% surge in chicken egg prices. For investors, the price they pay to portfolio managers remained unchanged after a 0.5% increase in August.
Following charts to plan on upcoming ratesI see trading volume and price both in moment and time period and also following news which effect on price then I decide to trade
USD: Fed meeting looming As the Federal Reserve meeting looming, market activity is getting dampened, with US Treasury yields is little changed, hovering around 2.60%. the greenback is mostly lower against the majors after a mixed trading on Monday.
Traders and analysts are weighting in on what to expect from the upcoming FOMC meeting that concludes on Wednesday. The central bank will leave its interest rates unchanged, confirming its “patient” approach to policymaking as the Federal Reserve has adopted a more dovish position since the start of 2019.
Markets will focus on the forecasts provided by policy makers in the so-called dot plot. It is expected that the Fed will signal just one hike in 2019 (or no hike at all) and one more in 2020 instead of forecasting two rate rises this year and one in 2020.
If so, the dollar could get under the additional downside pressure against major counterparts. But as a more dovish scenario has been mostly priced in already, the potential decline could be short-lived and limited.
EUR/USDIn general, it will be interesting to see whether our FX impulse thesis will stand the test over the next 3-4 months. A strong USD, and accordingly a weaker EUR, compared with a year ago should signal a higher probability of spread compression between US and Euro-area PMIs. We still buy into this spread compression story. e-markets.nordea.com
Change-Signals: EU reengages with QE due to Europe/Asia "slowdown"
FOMC minutes in focus this week As the latest Fed meeting was accompanied by the central bank’s commitment to data dependence, flexibility and patience, the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes may have a significant impact on the markets and the dollar in particular as the monetary authorities are expected to clarify the prospects of their monetary policy.
Should the regulator hint that the shift in the tone was not an abrupt turnaround from its earlier hawkish statements, and highlight that the path of future decisions will depend on the incoming data, it could be somehow positive for the greenback.
It will also be interesting to see how the Federal Reserve estimates the economic risks. In this context, a mention of an imminent danger of a recession is unlikely. But a more downbeat rhetoric is possible. If the Fed says that it continues to see sustained growth as the most likely path for the economy, the buck could get a lift.
Towards the end of last week, the dollar upside momentum started to abate. And there is a high probability that traders will tend to fix profit further ahead of the release due to a high uncertainty. In a wider picture, the US currency remains relatively robust against the backdrop of weak European data.
What’s driving the dollar higher? The Fed took a pause in hiking rates but the greenback rallies. After eight sessions of strength, the ascent stalled, however demand reemerged quickly and took the currency to fresh highs. So what’s behind the USD strength after all?
Essentially, it’s more weakness in other currencies rather than dollar appeal. It is just ‘best of a bad bunch’ as, for example, euro suffers from increasing risks to the European economy. The reports point to a slowdown in Germany, the region’s growth engine. And the overall health of the euro area economy is worsening. A worri-some political background in Italy, France and Spain add to the gloomy sentiment in the region.
Meanwhile, the threat of another US government shutdown is abating as Trump shows readiness to sign the border security deal despite he is "not happy" with the deal reached by congressional negotiators this week. The trade spat with China is also on the way to being resolved. And the US fundamentals look better than in other economies.
At the same time, the greenback will hardly be able to significantly extend the current rally without a less dovish rhetoric by the Federal Reserve. As such, the upside potential from here looks limited, though the currency will likely retain its bullish tone in the short term.
USD index extends recovery The dollar has finally left behind the recent dovish shift in the Fed’s tone. It looks like that traders have digested an updated message from the central bank and now shift focus to the incoming economic data from the US.
The greenback receives some support from this front. Friday’s US jobs report exceeded expectations strongly, confirming the solid state of the labor market. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing index rebounded last month from a decline in December that was temporary.
A spectacular rebound in the 10-year US Treasury yields adds to the upside pressure on the buck. The yields registered multi-day peaks and rises for a third straight day.
As such, the USD index is trading higher for a fifth day in a row and approaching the critical 96.00 figure on Tuesday. A chance of a break above this level will depend on fresh economic data but traders should remain vigilant on new signals from the Federal Reserve and the US economy.
The Fed will stress its data-dependence Global investors are awaiting the outcome of the FOMC’s January policy meeting. Stocks and currencies are muted ahead of the important verdict. While nobody expects any changes in the rates, the estimates of the potential rhetoric by the Federal Reserve differ.
Against the backdrop of the latest speculations, one of the key issues for markets is the possible end of the balance sheet reduction plan earlier than previously expected. But Powell will likely refrain from details and decisive statements on the issue, though a hint at such a step could put the greenback under pressure.
The central bank could also revise slightly lower its economic assessment and even adjust the forward guidance, suggesting that the economic activity is ‘solid’ instead of ‘strong’. Also, chances are high that the monetary authorities will emphasize the data-dependence in the context of further rate hikes in the future. If so, the uncertainty will rise but at the same time, it could revive hopes for resuming the tightening cycle some time later this year.
As such, the downside risks for the dollar from the upcoming meeting are limited, and the potential sell-off could be short-lived. And let’s not forget about the US-China trade talks that will set the tone for markets in the days to come.
Dollar: FOMC and NFP in focus The greenback that suffered steep losses on Friday and remains mainly on the defensive at the start of a new trading week, will have a critical test in the days to some. The FOMC meeting and the NFP employment report will set the tone for the major currency pairs in the short term.
Investor concerns over the US GDP and the global economy in general make the markets vulnerable to losses and assume a more cautious tone by major central banks amid the increasing signs that the economy still needs support from the monetary policy and is not ready for tightening yet. Moreover, there are even speculations about a possible recession.
In this environment, market expectations of further rate hikes in the US are rapidly abating, while the political chaos in the US adds to the worries. As such, traders are betting on a more cautious Fed’s tone and expect the officials will signal a pause in tightening on Wednesday. The dollar is ready for a more ‘dovish’ scenario but downside risks for the currency are still there.
As for the labor market report, following a string growth by over 300K in December, the results could disappoint, also due to the US government shutdown. A result around +100K will be a bearish scenario for the buck, while a rise by approximately 150K is going to be a neutral outcome for the American currency. In general, the bearish risks for the USD prevail, especially amid a threat of another government shutdown.
Fresh harbingers of recession The US stock markets shifted to a recovery mode on Wednesday after an aggressive pre-Christmas sell-off. S&P 500 gained by nearly 5%, with most sectors turned green. However, the rebound was more like a dead cat bounce and a sign that the selling was overdone rather than an improvement in investor sentiment. By the way, risk trends looked less robust in Asia on Thursday, while the European stock markets opened mixed amid a tepid risk sentiment and failed to follow up from the gains posted in Wall Street.
This is partly due to fresh signs of the potential slowing growth globally. In particular, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's manufacturing gauge fell by a record, to -8, missing all estimates projecting an increase to 15. This was due to weakening in new orders and shipments – another sign that the trade war with China is starting to hurt the US economy. By the way, it is the fourth regional bank factory index that reflected a drop in Decem-ber.
In another sign of the impending recession, China published another bearish report. In November, the industrial profit dropped for the first time in three years. The rate declined by 1.8 y/y versus -3.6% in the previous month. The fall in profits reflects slowing growth in producer prices and sales along with rising costs. Moreover, the earnings are expected to contract further in 2019 amid the cooling demand.
As such, markets have fresh evidence that the global economy is losing its momentum. As long as such sig-nals continue to emerge, investor sentiment will remain fragile and will hardly recover substantially.
Dollar could have an even tougher time The greenback has been losing ground aggressively at the end of the year. The US currency fails to resist the fundamental bearish drivers threatening to derail the already vulnerable upside trend in the USD. These drivers are the widespread rout in the US stock markets, concerns over the economic growth, Trump’s aggressive for-eign policy and political disputes, raising political uncertainty in the country. Add the President’s criticism of the Fed’s policy, and it’s not surprising that the dollar is rapidly losing its appeal both as a reserve currency and as a safe-haven asset.
Next year, the situation may get even worse should the US economy shows more vivid signs of slowing along with the global GDP. In this case, the Federal Reserve that is under an intense pressure from the White House will have to give up and take a pause in hiking rates, which will make the dollar even less attractive for bulls.
On the other hand, the potential global growth slowdown suggests that other major central banks will refrain from tightening as well. So in this context, the greenback will still have the advantage as the Fed hikes rates since late-2016.
The markets will also continue to closely monitor developments in foreign and domestic policy. The political ucertainty Trump’s disputed even with the Republicans, and staff reshuffles could fuel a full-fledged crisis on Wall Street, which will inevitable affect the US currency.
Trump deprives the dollar of safe-haven appeal After a short-lived corrective rally on Friday, the greenback is back under the selling pressure at the start of the last trading week on the year. The market liquidity is getting thinner ahead of Christmas holidays, and the trad-ing activity will be rather subdued in the days to come. The buck finishes the month on a weaker note, while the government shutdown in the US doesn’t bode well for the currency as well.
Market positioning ahead of month- quarter- and year end could distort the moves in the market, but the politi-cal events in the US make the dollar lose its appeal further. Apart from the situation in the federal government, there are rising concerns over the Trump’s criticism of the Fed and its current policy that damages the markets, according to the US President. Against this backdrop, the buck loses its appeal as a safe haven, while positive developments in Italy only increase the pressure.
On Friday, the US releases the key labor market data that could affect the short-term dynamics in the dollar pairs but will hardly change the market sentiment dramatically. Strong numbers may lift the USD across the board but there is a risk of profit-taking in this scenario as traders get disappointed in the US currency as a safe haven bet.
Monero price predictions
The forecast for the calendar year is around $ 650. Furthermore, the five-year forecast is around $ 2000. This ensures that from the present level as well, the appreciation which can be attained in this cryptocurrency is significant.
The main reason why such an appreciation is possible is owing to the fact that it is actually a completely anonymous cryptocurrency which upholds the principle of blockchain as well as cryptocurrencies.
In the past, even the law enforcement agencies have tried to discover the transacting parties but have failed. This is the reason why the potential in this particular cryptocurrency is immense. Many users all over the world are looking for completely anonymous cryptocurrencies in order to transact. This is the reason why this cryptocurrency can gain immense traction among such users as well.
Also, it has fallen from the peak like most of the other cryptocurrencies. Thus, it might be a good idea to buy it at the current prices. This will ensure that in the future, you will be able to get a good return as well.
In the future, if the anonymous nature of the cryptocurrencies is not maintained, only, in that case, it will not be able to provide you with any kind of appreciation. As long as the cryptocurrency is anonymous, you can be sure that the kind of appreciation which will be enjoyed by the cryptocurrency will be immense.
Moreover, the cryptocurrency regulations can actually be a threat to this cryptocurrency. This is the only thing which you need to look out for when investing in this cryptocurrency. Since it is decentralized and not controlled by a single Association, the future actually looks bright for this cryptocurrency.
Thus, if you’re looking for a cryptocurrency to invest in for the next couple of years, Monero surely seems to be one of the best options which you can invest in. It will help you in diversifying your portfolio easily as well.
Use of an oscillatory indicator Here we can see in one day candles the use an oscillatory indicator, in this case Williams%, reading that indicator we can now when the price of this currency is either in a overbought or oversold state. In orange color we can see the overbought states and in green color we can see oversold states also in pink color is a line that mark the middle point of the chart because it is useful to confirm tendencies.
Amateur Trader USD/CADI think the dollar is causing a choke point of volatility because of the S&P500 drop, the chokepoint swings last around 20 days each, where currently near the end of this downward swing, either its gonna jump upwards or break out below the support
Long term trend before the S&P bumb was long and we are currentlow still inside the drop for the short term but I'm bullish for the next 20 days
