US oil roadmap (rough)When it touches the blue lower rail I will buy GTE on the basis the USO ETF looks bullish
Short term bearish af
Long term bullish
Not financial advice
USO trade ideas
Opening (IRA): USO May 16th -75C/October 17th 45C LCD*... for a 26.25 debit.
Comments: Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month strike that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. (The long call is shown at a higher strike so that it fits on the chart).
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 26.25
Break Even: 71.25
Max Profit: 3.75
ROC at Max: 14.3%
50% Max: 1.88
ROC at 50%: 7.2%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out short call at 50% max to reduce down side break even.
* -- Long call diagonal.
Downside tgt hit on USO. Bounce to $70?I've seen so many targets hit and reverse - especially GLD & GDXJ- I figured I may as well see if USO has a similar reversal since the downside target from my last USO idea is tagged & holding.
At the moment I get that it can get back up to the $70-71 area & it's a bull trap.
I also get the date of the 16th, so there's often reversals or interesting price action around dates. Oh, I do dowsing, btw, and that's where all my levels and information comes from. We'll see.
USO swing high- short tgt 65-66I asked my dowsing for the next trade to help reach my goal for the year, and it's oil/ USO. I do believe this will include oil stocks, so I may ask for dowsing to choose one from a list. If I do & get the reading done on it, I'll post it as another idea.
My latest work is pretty decent, but a work in progress. I'm really trying to determine time frames for when targets will hit so we can get the right options & mental expectation (i.e. patience) for things to develop.
The target is 65. In my mind I got 63, but I'm only sharing that because I'm also testing my own intuition more lately. The date we hit by is around April 28th.
I also have been guided to get dates from the past as an indication of what to expect, & the date given was 1/21, which was a gap down. I suspect there will be a gap down tomorrow, or at least the move down starts more aggressively. This has worked in prior ideas on TSLA & I think SPY... but can't remember.
I really am enjoying this method so far as my levels are often hit & I can just relax & allow things to happen with more faith they will. Of course, there's always the chance it's completely wrong & it is a smaller move, but we'll see.
Opening (IRA): USO April 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.58 debit.
Comments: With /CL dropping sub-70/bbl., putting on a starter position in USO, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.58/share
Max Profit: 1.42
ROC at Max: 2.13%
50% Max: .71
ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
USO Bearish Outlook: Sell Opportunity as Momentum Shifts Current Resistance Zone: The price is currently testing a strong resistance zone around the $83 level. in the past, this level has been a turning point for price movements.
Potential Reversal: The chart suggests a possible rejection from the resistance zone, with a projected short-term correction to approximately $78.82 .
Key Levels:
-Resistance: $82.75–$83.25.
-Support: $78.82 (highlighted as target).
Scenario: After testing the resistance zone, a pullback towards $78.82 is expected, aligning with previous price behavior. A confirmed break above $83 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Note: Always combine technical levels with broader market context and risk management.
Opening (IRA): USO February 21st 79/April 17th 107 PMCP** -- Poor Man's Covered Put
Comments: Shorting USO on strength using a long put diagonal/Poor Man's Covered Put, buying the back month 90 delta put and selling the front month 30 that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 22.96 debit
Break Even: 84.04
Max Profit: 5.04
ROC at Max: 21.95%
50% Max: 2.52
ROC at 50% Max: 10.98%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short put on approaching worthless.
USO Climbs to Resistance! Can Bulls Maintain Momentum?Technical Analysis Overview:
1-Hour Chart:
* Trend: USO is in a strong uptrend, reaching $84.36 near the upper trendline.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Positive momentum, with the MACD line above the signal line.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought at 92.16, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation.
30-Minute Chart:
* Price Action:
* USO is trading near resistance at $84.50, with support around $82.80.
* Increasing volume supports the recent bullish move.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
* $82.80: Immediate support zone.
* $78.89: Strong support level.
* $77.05: Key support from prior consolidation.
Resistance Levels:
* $84.50: Immediate resistance at the upper trendline.
* $86: Next resistance level if $84.50 is breached.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Break above $84.50 with volume confirmation.
* Target: $86-$88.
* Stop-Loss: Below $82.80 to limit risk.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Rejection at $84.50 or breakdown below $82.80.
* Target: $80-$78.89.
* Stop-Loss: Above $84.50 to minimize losses.
Directional Bias:
* USO’s upward momentum suggests bullish strength, but the overbought Stochastic RSI warns of potential consolidation or a pullback near $84.50 resistance.
Conclusion:
USO is trading near critical resistance at $84.50. A breakout could propel prices toward $86, while failure to hold current levels may lead to a retest of support at $82.80 or lower. Monitor volume and momentum indicators for actionable setups.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
USO to fall, Buying SCOMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when price tags the top or bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price above or at top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive and at top of Bollinger Band
Buying AMEX:SCO at $16.30. Target $18.
Shorting AMEX:USO at $77.08. Target $73.
Opening (IRA): USO January 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.72 break even.
Comments: Dinking and doinking on USO at /CL <$70/bbl.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.72
Max Profit: 1.38
ROC at Max: 2.07%
50% Max: .69
ROC at 50% Max: 1.04%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; add if I can get in at better break evens/strike prices.
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even.
Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 1.71%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: .86%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit.
Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.29%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.15%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.74 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on ... . Selling the -75 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.74
Max Profit: 1.26
ROC at Max: 1.95%
50% Max: .63
ROC at 50% Max: .97%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit.
Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share
Max Profit: 1.56 ($156)
ROC at Max: 2.31%
ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.16%
Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness.
Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26
Max Profit: 1.74
ROC at Max: 2.84%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.42%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even.
Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41
Max Profit: 2.59
ROC at Max: 4.15%
50% Max: 1.30
ROC at 50% Max: 2.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 67 Covered Call... for a 65.26 debit.
Comments: Adding a rung at strike prices better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.26
Max Profit: 1.74 ($174)
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call on side test.
Short crude oil, and oil fundoil has found itself at some good resistance levels.
I believe the pros will shake the market out and we go lower.
and only then WITH war oil will rally very high.
see my alternative on the chart
Trend Channel Chart Projects Higher Prices for USO & WTIUUSO & WTIU Here's an interesting and unusual long view projection of USO on a weekly Trend Channel Chart with Fib levels. I like this set up here & this construct of the weekly chart. I feel like it clearly shows the trends within the longer wave cycle and creates defined price levels for a trade -
So looking at the chart I see a clear zone up to the previous highs. I can place a stop close by in the low 70's with a price target for the next leg up at 96-ish.. with a time frame of around 10-ish weeks.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.27 debit.
Comments: Adding to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on (the Nov 15th 67's and the Dec 20th 69's). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.27/share
Max Profit: 1.73 ($173)
ROC at Max: 2.82%
50% Max: .87 ($87)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.41%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on side test.
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets.
Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO).
However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand.
Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption.
The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 64 Covered Call... for a 62.48 debit.
Comments: Adding a smidge to my position here at better break evens than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta (ish) against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.43%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.21%
USO to $75MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading system is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
TTM Squeeze just turned on (green dot up there)
TTM Squeeze momentum is spiked down
In at $70.09, out at $75 or when price hits upper channel, whichever comes first
