USO trade ideas
USO potential breakout short termUSO potential $9 breakout in progress with $11 max at top of resistance line
USO Short-Term ReversalNot much time to write my underlying thoughts on the fundamentals at the moment, but in short I am contrarian. Production caps don't resolve the shortage of storage in the United States. Moreover, the glut will continue in the presence of weak economic data. I suspect this to be yet another false potential breakout to the upside. Note CL1 (Day Chart). We've been trading in a downward channel for an extended period of time now.
USO JAN 17 7 LONG CALL/APR 1ST 8.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONALTruth be told, things like calendars and diagonals are best suited for a low volatility environment, but I'm looking for a bullish assumption setup in oil that offers me some flexibility over a larger time frame than, for example, a 45 DTE credit spread would (which is generally just a "one and done" kind of thing). As an alternative to a covered call, I'm going long-dated diagonal here since I can do it more cheaply/smaller than buying USO outright (although at 8.33 a share, it's pretty cheap to begin with).
Here's the setup, although it's off hours and the option pricing is unlikely to be accurate:
USO Jan 17 7 Long Call/Apr 1st 8.5 short call diagonal
Max Profit: Undeterminable
Buying Power Effect: $1.52 debit/contract
Notes: You want to work this setup like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the short option to rake in credit for the life of the trade, taking the entire setup off when the amount of credits received exceeds the debit you paid to put it on by some measure. Naturally, you can also continue to work the short call for credit all the way toward long call expiration as long as it remains profitable to do so. This is why the max profit of the setup is "indeterminable" -- it all depends on when you take the trade off and how much credit you've received for it up to that point.
Setting up for a squeeze soonFalling wedge would need a break to the upside (RSI/MACD bull divergence)
USO - WeeklyPrimary and Intermediate targets, using Elliott Wave theory, for future bull rally can only be set once smaller-degree minor impulsive waves take shape. Note risk of long-term investment using ETPs such as USO to capture the major movements of underlying commodities. Decay inherent to the ETF's underlying structure primarily accounts for under-representing, in this case, Crude.
USO - DailyCorrective Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion. Note also positive divergence forming on MACD. Future impulsive rally thru 16.20 will indicate significant low is complete. A corrective 3-wave pull-back from a 5-wave move over 16.20 will set up a long entry with stop at coming low. Confirmation comes with price moving higher than initial 5-wave rally high.
See also hourly and weekly analysis.
USO Will take some time to establish a proper base here. Very hard to take a Bullish position here & now.
USO Finding bottom and new channelUSO trended within a 12 dollar channel from 2009 to 2014. It could be finding a bottom at the crux of the triangle down, break out and begin trending in a new channel. Perhaps using resistance of the 62% fib line.
support for oilI wouldn't be surprised by a bounce tomorrow: Historical support & linear regression support
Check chart for more thoughts.
Very important level
Short position on USO @ 9.4850Shorting USO with an Stop Loss really close.... The downside seems more profitable at these level....
AB=CD Pattern on USOUSO making quite a nice AB=CD pattern. Maybe a retracement to 9.15 at 0.618 Fibo's level.
USO - It may due for a bounce!Crude is flushed again. Everybody is bearish and short the crude.
I prefer to stand on the other side of the trade.
USO COVERED CALL IDEAHaving waited a long time for West Texas Intermediate to hit 2009 levels, I figured I'd put my money where my mouth was and go long USO when it did.
I filled this one earlier today:
Bought 100 Shares USO @ 10.05
Sold 1 Feb 19th 11 Call
Total Package: 9.69 debit
Max Profit: $131 (if called away at 11)
You could probably get a slightly better fill than I did, as USO ended the day at 9.90 ... .
Looks like a good buying opportunity.Reached lower trend line. We also have a reversal pattern candle stick today.
USO SHORTUSO shifted this morning and is more
bearish again. My entry would be 1 tick
below todays low
oilers are mostly not in favor
This oil fund is dying and trying to get momentum on the daily chart here. Back in August it tried to be somebody but, it held until November 12th of this year. Tried to recover and puked again I believe that this oil fund is soaking up the oilers for an example: Cabot oil and gas $COG, Conoco Phillips $Cop, Hess Corporation $HES, and Diamondback Energy INC, $FANG and more like this. SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production $XOP tells a different story far as price goes. Been in this range since the last day of November of last year. Today has been questionable for SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production $XOP should I rally or puke? We had noted Carrizo Oil and Gas $CRZO was trying to go revstrat and go back up on the day, it’s a inside week along with Chevron corporation , Valero Energy, and most of oilers are inside week also.
$USO Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence60 minute chart of $USO shows a falling wedge formation with bullish divergence.
Watching for a break higher.
