UUP trade ideas
Currencies - UUP Bullish on the DollarIdea for UUP (S2):
- Fed moving rate hike expectations forward.
- August Jackson Hole meeting will see the Fed begin 'talking about tapering' (even though they have been tapering for a while), why wait until then? Smart money will move before then.
- Brazil hikes rates. EM's will first race to hike rates.
- Fed and ECB will have to move by EOY.
- Technical Double Bottom.
- Falling Wedge Reversal.
- While it is early to call for a bull market in the dollar, it is showing strength, and fundamentals are bullish.
Not a bad time to start a moderately bullish position.
GLHF
- DPT
UUP - Dollar strength. possibly as high as 26?With some of the recent tightening rhetoric and pressure on the indexes, it's not much of a surprise demand for dollars has been increasing. We have a pretty clear bullish wedge break followed by a double bottom. Give this one at least a month or two -- I feel 26 is within reach (distance on 'W' is around 24.15-25.15, so 26.15 would be the actual expectation). We are right near short term resistance here, but I feel we will break through this as upward momentum seems quite reasonable (MACD)
GOLD ICL TIMING?Chart of the dollar shows a Gartley pattern on the weekly time frame. ICL due in September, could time out.
SPX-UUP Weekend open discussion asking for a friend any thoughtsAny one would care to share his experience on UUP ETF.
This ETF offers exposure to a basket of currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, decreasing in value when the trade-weighted basket strengthens and increasing when the dollar appreciates. This fund could be appropriate for investors seeking to a fund that is inversely correlated to the broad stock market or for those making a bet on a flight to quality. For investors seeking exposure to the dollar against a broad range of developed market currencies, UUP is one of the best choices out there.
Top Holdings
Symbol Holding % Assets
N/A Government & Agency Portfolio 73.00%
N/A United States Treasury Bill 16.19%
CLTL Invesco Treasury Collateral ETF 10.80%
It's Time for the USD to Begin it's Next Bullish WaveUUP Testing to see if it can find new support at previous resistance after a prolonged breakout of a falling wedge. Now looks to be a good time to buy some cheap call options expiring within the next 1-3 months.
This also seems like a good signal that being careful with trading FX pairs against the USD seems to be the right thing to do as the USD looks like it may show new continued strength at any moment now.
Overall in the mid to long term the USD seems like it will be quite Bullish
UUPDollar at former support. What happens here probably has a pretty big impact on pretty much everything if I had to guess.
US Dollar Still DowntrendingSince the begging of 2021, we have seen around a 2% rally for the $USD; however, there is clearly a downtrend that has to be broken before the bulls get in.
The next level after breaking the upper channel line would be the 100sma, which has proven to be useful as a trend-following system.
GME-style Returns in a Fortnight (UUP calls)There are compelling indicators that we are on a verge of a February 2021 market correction and the USD is expected to breakout due to investors moving from equities to bonds and USD. The VIX index and 10 year bond yield have increased significantly recently. 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.149% booked its largest weekly rise since June. A rising USD is another sign of impending liquidity crunch, debt implosion and stock market crash/ correction. It might mean people are demanding cash and supply is short.
UUP.NYSE (consists 100% of Mar21DXH1/Dollar Index based on Invesco Product Detail Statement) is selected for the purpose of this research. It is evident from the chart that UUP has ‘predicted’ the March 2020 market crash and September and October 2020 market correction. The red flags are bullish UUP RSI rising towards the 70-80 range (a sign indicating smart money might be hedging their bets) and sustained MACD line (BLUE) movements above the MACD signal line (RED). Those two signals occur well ahead of the market crash and corrections, the RSI has 100% accuracy based on the most recent market dynamics.
Moreover, February is the second worst month in the history of markets after September according to records dating back to 1928. Gamestop aftermath and Robinhood CEO testifying before Congress on February 19th might present uncertainty and trigger market sell-off. Lawmakers with stance similar to Kevin O’Leary (Democrat-Massachusetts Secretary of State) are expected to make headlines in the near future under the façade of ‘preventing little guys (retail investors) from getting hurt’ reducing retail investors margin and increasing current margin requirements (thus reducing investors firepower). COVID vaccine news have been priced in but vaccine shortage and constraints remains and investors might want to book into their profits. . Recent major indices futures are pointing down too and indicate the bullish momentum is falling.
It might be a good time to hedge the market now through VIX or/ and UUP. VIX and UUP moves in the same direction but UUP calls are currently pennies with low implied volatility. UUP 19 Feb $ 26 calls are currently priced at $ 0.01, if UUP hits $26 on Feb 19, the profit and loss will be $ 4000 (on a $ 1000 investment) and $ 99,000 ($ 1000 investment) if UUP hits $ 27. opcalc.com
USD Downtrend, Hits Key support Levels with Consolidation.A strong U.S. dollar could be bad for large-cap multinationals because it makes American goods more expensive overseas. If the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, then it could also have a negative long-term impact because those overseas consumers will begin to turn away from American brands. On the other end of the spectrum, domestic companies will not be negatively impacted by the U.S. dollar.
(www.investopedia.com)
Daily chart still under consolidation with a set up to attempt $25.00 which correlates to AUG - OCT 2020 support which will now be resistance due to the supply of shares. Good Risk to reward ratio with cheap options. Would look for an entry close to support levels around $24.20
short-term bullish dollar play UUPThe dollar has bounced off its bottom trend line. After having such a long period of weakening, it is due to bounce back a bit. It is extremely rare for the dollar to not reverse the trend after an extended period of strength or weakness.
It may not rally back much, but it will give you some gains in the short-term. Sell half when it hits the upper trend line and let the other half ride. There have been some contrarian calls on Wall Street for a surprisingly strong dollar.
UUP is a way to play the bullish dollar. I currently have a vertical call spread expiring 2/19 with the buy-strike being $24 and the sell-strike being $26.
TTM Squeeze says up we go!TTM Squeeze is almost never wrong when it says up, even in this major downtrend.
Looking for catalysts?
- Political gridlock on stimulus
- No Deal Brexit
- Covid 19 flaring up
- Short term target is just above 25
- Longer term, if this is a bottom or should there be another liquidity crisis, this could go to 27 and beyond.
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an idea and an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
UUPKing dollar looks like it wants another leg down. Bullish equities/cryptos/anything else you buy with a dollar.
UUP ready for small bounce?The whole rally the past few weeks seems attributable to the decline in the dollar. And it doesn't look good with a giant descending triangle. However, here we seem to have found some gentle support on the bottom end of the bollinger band. Looking for a very short term (3-7 days) bounce here commensurate with an SPX drop. 25.5 seems like the obvious exit but we could get as high as 26 depending on the size of the SPX downside move fleeing towards dollars.
UUPFilled the gap today on stupid huge volume. Could see multiple things happening here over the next few days but I think $26 ultimately gets hit. Will be keeping an eye on.
Flip BTC Upside DownFlip $BTC upside down! But don't just flip it, make a relative strength ratio with multiple indexes. How about $DXY and $UUP?
