Hidden Value is on The Rise in Equity MarketsI've written quite a bit that stock picking is back. That active management of undiscovered names can finally lead to alpha again. I think we are seeing that take place with the recent performance of value stocks compared to the leading indexes.
While the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 2% this year at its worst during the most recent drawdown, the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) is up 5%. This seems rather fascinating and I don't remember when a basket of good ol fashioned value stocks were outperforming the index like this.
It's been a long time!
Buffett’s wisdom holds strong: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” With tax cuts and a business-friendly environment ahead, could value stocks finally go on the offensive?
History favors those who buy durable businesses at reasonable prices. The market wobbles, but for patient investors, cash flow remains king and this is true across all sectors and industries. Perhaps most fascinating is that there are indeed even tech names that fit this value narrative as many have been obliterated recently.
Keep your eyes open!
I'll be watching closely.
VTV trade ideas
At some point Value will stage a comeback...is now the time?It's hard not to look at this monthly chart of Value (VTV) vs. Growth (VUG) and not see a possible LT double bottom in the works.
There is no doubt growth stocks have been the winner for a very long time; certainly over the last 25-30 years and perhaps even more one might argue. At this point it seems like value is dead OR will it stage a huge comeback?
Because I cannot unsee this chart as a double bottom I have been looking for an entry to go long VTV and short VUG and today is the day for a possible reversal.
When I drill down into the daily chart; today's candle cuts right through the middle of the Tenkan Sen (red line). This indicates a very strong bullish reversal BUT it must follow thru with continued bullish price action. Therefore it cannot close below this line within the next week.
In addition, the monthly closing must be back above the dotted pink line (or .4374). This would indicate a breakdown failure and if this is the case price action should reverse course strongly in the opposite direction; in this case UP.
Trade setup for VTVVTV tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index. The index selects stocks from the top 85% of market capitalization based on multiple value factors.
- Seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, which measures the investment return of large-capitalization value stocks.
- Provides a convenient way to match the performance of many of the nation’s largest value stocks.
- Follows a passively managed, full-replication approach.
Read more about this index here
$VTV - this should keep you up at nightThe vanguard value fund is a quality company fund. Some of the finest and strongest companies in the US and world. It is showing a H&S formation. This is ugly. Failure from 142 leads to 139 failure possibly. If we lose 139, the market is screwed. and we are heading another 20% lower at least.
Pullback ApproachingI'm playing around with a basket of #anguard funds on Betterment. I used to let the system do its thing, but I'm getting a bit more proactive based on the large-cap movement.
Following methods of the previous cycles, I Bought in around 142, and just sold at 147.10. Eying the 141 range in the coming days to reinvest.Time for lunch! #VTV
$VTV - retest of breakoutVanguard's value fund is back at this breakout line and had a beautiful touch and bounce. All indexes have been cooling off this week which is normal. It is hard for me to see excess selling into the rest of the year except for the debt limit ceiling issues. However that would be catastrophic because it would immediately cause our credit rating to drop to levels that would destroy the economy. We could see some stalling but the consumer is still spending. That has been proven in the retail numbers. Jobless claims are cooling off. All should be reasons to look positively into end of year. GLL!!
Not a recommendation to buy or sell. For informational purposes only.
‘Growth’ stocks are making a comeback versus ‘Value’The market saw a big shift in early September when money started pouring into “value” stocks, like banks and energy. Investors had neglected them for years and they were supposed to benefit from the U.S. and China ending their trade war. But that’s been fading in recent weeks, especially with Apple and Microsoft flying to new highs.
This hourly chart compares two major ETFs tracking the two buckets of companies: The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) .
Notice how VTV initially surged ahead of VUG on September 5, right after Beijing confirmed it was holding trade talks with the White House. That strength continued until about two weeks ago.
The first setback was President Trump talking down hopes of a trade deal with China. Then came some weaker economic news – especially industrial production on November 15. Those two catalysts have dragged interest rates back lower and undermined one of the basic arguments in favor of “value.” Meanwhile, GDP estimates from the Atlanta Federal Reserve have nosedived from 1.5 percent to under half a percent. Topping it off today, oil is breaking down.
A backdrop like goes against the “value trade.” It could mean to watch out for a pullback in the banks because financials are the largest sector in the value index. But it could also help restore interest in the big Nasdaq companies that have led the market for years.
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