XBI - BTD after 10% PB .786 FIB Target 152-156We've just had a 10% correction and biotech is about to explode with all of the MRNA applications that will expand after the COVID vaccine research (see also AGTC with new vision therapies).
I bought today and will add if we dip in the $152-156 range looking for a bounce on the 50 Day MA and a move higher shortly thereafter.
Sold XBI near the top after a 25% gain, reentered today.
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
XBI trade ideas
XBI - Biotech may be running out of fuelIn January 2021, you a quick selloff in XBI caused RSI to dip below 20 while directional selling volume also spiked over 50 (yellow rings). This "oversold" condition led to a quick sharp up move (yellow arrow, RSI crossed up over red line), then consolidation before a prolonged move higher.
Now I am looking at a peak in RSI and a spike in directional buying volume (pink rings). I like swing puts here, and there are two trades you can plan. If I buy swing puts now (2/19 strike) I would close them on a drop as RSI crosses below the green line - IV should increase and improve my return. Then I will look for another swing put trade setup if XBI indicates a greater move lower on daily/60m timeframes.
Biotech etf year in review: O$92.76 H$152.70 L$62.94 C <=> $144Biotech etf year in review:
O $92.76
H $152.70
L $62.94
C <=> $144
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
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Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
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Ultimate LONG - The Biotech Bubble Bubbles are natural & good until everybody talks about it.
Didn't hear of anyone talking about it, so its a good time to make call - THE NEXT BUBBLE WILL BE IN BIOTECH (if we IGNORE EV and SPAC's ofcourse)
My bet is:
1. small cap bios could double-tripple from here.
2. heavy names could get +50%
Too much money, to few shares & good companies.
OPENING (IRA): XBI NOV/DEC/JAN 87/90/93 SHORT PUT LADDER... for a 5.91 credit in total.
Notes: Going where the volatility is ... . 30-day greater than 35% (39.8%) with the November at-the-money short straddle paying 13.1% of where the stock is currently trading.
This isn't usually an IRA play I go for, since you won't get paid to wait if you get assigned shares (the yield is absolutely paltry at .10%). However, I'm pretty much in all the plays or in a closely correlated play at the top of the exchange-traded-fund board: XOP (56.2%) (play on in XLE); GDXJ (51.1%) (plays on in SLV and GLD); SLV (47.7%); EWZ (47.5%); GDX (42.9%) (plays on in SLV/GLD); XLE (42.6%), and SMH (39.6%) (no play on).
Biotech Channel Held 7/21/2020This is XBI at the 4 hour view. It seems that my biotech channel was a success. XBI tried to gap above the top of the channel. However, whenever the price goes above the long-term channel, it tends to get hammered right back in.
This may provide some safer short opportunities under these conditions.
1) XBI is at the top or above the top of the channel.
2) VIX is about found support.
3) After the hype of some vaccine news.
Equities - Own What is Working! Pt. 3Please check out my blog post for the full details:
www.derzzycharts.com
Now we may be seeing a double RSI divergence coming up here, which is where we exit another third of our position. Very key to also think on the bullish side here and consider that the RSI could hit new highs, which discounts the bearish divergence. Very key to watch at these levels because we are either adding capital on the pullback or locking in gains if the double bearish divergence is confirmed. What about QQQ?
Equities - Own What is Working! Pt. 4
Happy Trading!
Brandon Anderson
brandon@derzzycharts.com
@derzzycharts
www.derzzycharts.com
Biotech Channel 7/18/2020I've noticed that most tech related ETFs and the NQ are in the same general channel.
This is the XBI at the 4 hour view. It's the biotech ETF. As you may see, my buy zone is way below. This may be due to the coronavirus vaccine hype. Not sure.
Either way, biotech has been grinding at the top of my channel for a while. If it pops above it, it will likely get hammered down.
I'll short it if it pops above my channel and go long when it gets hammered down to my buy zone.
Quick Flag Break to ResistanceNeed to see short term continuation above the recent 114 resistance, S/R flip possibly, to remain bullish.
Strong move up from recent flag after flag pattern, but the quick stall out causes concern for weakness.
If it fails to overtake the 114 level, then likely pullback to the volume shelf around 104 which could coincide with a MACD bearish crossover and possibly result in a relatively large bearish divergence.
Short term - Neutral until immediate move up above 114 to long the continuation towards the bottom of the previous channel (blue)
XBI - On the verge of ANOTHER historic 300% run?First 5 years were quite disappointing for XBI, as it was locked in a big "penalty box" from the spring of '06 to the spring of 2011... BUT is was slowly building a BIG ascending triangle, fraught with false breakouts (blue arrow), and FINALLY, a break-and-retest of the all time highs (green arrow). From this ATH (upper boundary of the box), to the blow-off top in July 2015, the NET gain was almost 300% over 4 years, on an UNLEVERAGED, DIVERSIFIED ETF!!!
How cool would it be if history repeated itself? XBI found itself again inside of a big nasty "penalty box" over the last 5/6 years, BUT it managed to form a BIG ascending triangle, fraught with false breakouts (blue arrows), and FINALLY, a break-and-retest of all time highs (green arrow). Will it quadruple over the next years just like last time? In 2011, rates had been cut aggressively and the world was coming out of a backbreaking recession... Sounds familiar? Just beware of externalities that may rock the boat!! In Agust 2011, the US debt downgrade and the European debt crisis plunged equities into a hole, but for biotech, it was only one last scary shakeout (red arrow) before a historic run!
Full disclosure: I own several biotech stocks totaling over 20% of total assets, and am actively seeking to increase my exposure to this sector. While I don't own XBI, I have reccomended it and similar funds to people unable or unwilling to buy individual stocks. Only buy the amount of stock that you can be sure to hold in the worst market conditions. The bigger the potential upside,
the bigger the risk of temporary drawdowns. And they come when you LEAST expect them. Just look at June-August 2011... Buy on pullbacks, NEVER chase prices.