XBI - wyckoff phase D to ESelf explanatory, we are in phase D about to enter Phase E. LEAP option strategy might be a good one.
XBI trade ideas
XBI biotech ETF EW count optionsSharing an intermediate view of the EW count options for XBI.
The short-term bullish range is $97-$98.
The short-term bearish target ranges are $89 - $88.50 and $87.
The bearish count, in red, drops the price to $81ish as first support. If, $81 range does not hold, $72 is the C wave target.
In the meantime, I anticipate a lot of chop in the range from $86 - $100 in the next couple months until a rate cut occurs.
As speculation of a rate cut increases, the price can begin to gravitate toward $104. When an interest rate cut is proposed, XBI will blast to the $140s but I am reserved about this outcome at this time.
Opening (IRA): XBI July 19th 83 Monied Covered Call... for an 80.91 debit.
Comments: After taking off my August 88 monied for a small profit, re-upping in shorter duration, but with a better break even than what I had with the August 88. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot of stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
My general goal here is to not hang out in these positions for lengthy periods of time, but to take profit, re-evaluate the market for where the juice is at, and re-up if the underlying remains "sexy" from a premium-selling standpoint. XBI's 30-day IV isn't stellar at 30.9%, but it's toward the top of my IV screener, with miners and the silver ETF hogging three spots: TQQQ (51.8%); GDXJ (44.0%); GDX (38.7%); SLV (32.3%); SMH (31.6%); EWZ (31.1%); XBI (30.9%).
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 80.91
Max Profit: 2.09
ROC at Max: 2.58%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.29%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call aspect if it reaches 50% max or there is a test of my downside break even.
Bullish pattern could be formedHi guys ! a bullish continuous head & shoulders pattern could be happen if neck line will be broken and price tolerate one day trading above 91, in such a scenario XBI could reach around 97, I will update the post later …..
Bullish pattern could be formedHi guys ! a bullish continuous head & shoulders pattern could be happen if neck line will be broken and price tolerate one day trading above 91, in such a scenario XBI could reach around 97, I will update the post later …..
Rolling (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Short Call to June 21st 88... for a 1.25 credit.
Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my XBI covered call at ~50% max to the June expiry for a 1.25 credit.
Cost basis now 85.94 (See Post Below) minus 1.25 or 84.69.
top of volume range band end of day?probably the influx of money into biotech this morning has a rippling effect all day on this etf as it retraces above its gap to sell off levels again.
XBI - biotech has been hot last weekI like this breakout on XBI.
I'm in with a bigger position and we're sitting right at the 100SMA> We could retest from here closer to 88/86 but below that I'd cut the trade.
It's also sitting in a demand zone and ideally moves above $92/ 93.
Opening (IRA): XBI June 21st 82 Short Put... for a 1.90 credit.
Comments: Selling a put here, since the resulting cost basis if assigned shares would be lower than the cost basis of the position I've currently got on now. The full position is now a June 21st 82/88 covered strangle (i.e., short put, stock, short call).
Will look to take profit at 50% max.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares if Assigned: 80.10
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.37%
ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 1.19%
Delta/Theta: 23.36/2.42
XBI the ETF for Biotechnology LONGBiotechnology is expected to be a hot subsector this year as healthcare recovered further from
the COVID pandemic anything from startups to big pharma- from vaccines to new drugs for
diabetes, liver disease and obesity. This is shown on a weekly chart to show the long term trend
with XBI pivoting to bullish back in early November. I add long positions when I see a dip
on the 3-4hr chart. My targets are the fib retracement expectation at 116 confluent with
the first upper VWAP band line and then the 135-138 zone underneath the second upper line
shown in thin red on the chart. This ETF smooths out the volatility characteristic of some
of the smaller biotechnology firms making it safer albeit with lesser rewards expectations.
Positions in NVAX and MRNA are having a good start to the week and will reflect in a small
way in this ETF which has broad constituent stocks within its portfolio.
XBI Pushing Into ResistanceXBI is pushing back into strong resistance in the range on 96.5 - 100.
Looking for a higher high with momentum divergence to setup another round of weakness.
XBI eyes on $87.87 for support: Biotech due for a bounce?Biotech is still near its Covid lows.
This etf is about to test a key level.
Expecting a bounce here, lets see.
$ 87.87 - 88.99 is the immediate support.
$ 79.23 - 80.50 is the next strongest support.
$ 93.15 - 93.21 the first major resistance above.
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Opening (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Monied Covered Call... for an 85.94 debit.
Comments: 32.5% 30-Day IV. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 short put, take advantage of call side IV skew, and to have built-in defense via the short call.
Metrics:
Cost Basis/Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 85.94
Delta/Theta: 28.5/4.31
Max Profit: 2.06 ($206)
ROC at Max: 2.40%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.20%
Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit at 50% max; look to roll the short call for duration it hit 50% max at any time to reduce cost basis further; add short put, assuming I can get in at a strike with a lower break even than what I currently have on.
XBI Bottoming: Target 103/104 by April 2024XBI appears to be indicating signs of bottoming out, with a potential target range of 103/104 by the end of April 2024, provided that the 92/95 range holds as support.
XBI: Key Inflection at the 200wk lineXBI just recently broke out of a major range and is now on its way to retake the 200 wk moving average. With many biotechs breaking out of early bases, XBI looks likely to break to the upside.
XBI breaking out!I believe XBI is putting in a 5-pt reversal. it almost exactly mirrors history in the chart. target is $150+
Opening (IRA): XBI March 15th 84 Monied Covered Call... for an 81.63 debit.
Comments: 32.1% 30-Day IV.
My general preference for ETF IV is >35%, but there isn't much currently there in my ETF screener, and I'm already in a GDX position: TQQQ (52.3%); USO (38.1%); GDXJ (35.0%).
Buying a one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 delta short put with "built-in" defense of the position via the short call.
2.37 max on BPE of 81.63; 2.90% ROC at max; 1.45% at 50% max.
XBI - high and tight flagA high and tight flag for AMEX:XBI that just rested the 10 week MA. This sector looks like continuation.
XBI Consolidating Just Below Major PivotXBI, the S&Ps Biotech ETF has been ranging nicely just below a major pivot that has acted as resistance for over two years. Bounced off the 20 EMA on the daily and made a beautiful candle on Friday. Anything that happens below $95 must be taken with a grain of salt, but it looks like it wants to breakout and flip that resistance pivot to support.
Opening (IRA): XBI April 19th 77 Monied Covered Call... for a 74.27 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" to my XBI position here .... . Selling the -75 delta call and buying a one lot to emulate a 25 short put to take advantage of IV skew in calls (40.2% at the 77 strike on the call side; 33.0% on the put).
2.73 max profit on BPE of 74.27; 3.68% ROC as a function of BPE at max; 1.84% at 50% max.
$XBI: Looking For A Probe Below 87.5Both biotech ETF's AMEX:XBI and NASDAQ:IBB are showing tremendous weakness in the face of a strong market. I suspect that when the market is ready to pullback it may take this a little lower especially in the face of a strong TVC:DXY / Dollar Index. Good luck traders!
XBI Long-term Buy SignalsAMEX:XBI is giving long term buy signals as the chart displays. Super trend signals a buy, also MACD and KST crossovers confirm trend direction.
XBI is a somewhat volatile bio-tech ETF.
This ETF is also great for selling options on when volatility is high, as the premium you receive is often much higher than employing the strategy on SPY.
Here are the most current Top 10 holdings:
1 CYTK Cytokinetics, Incorporated 2.79% 2,308,666
2 KRTX Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. 1.80% 383,056
3 ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 1.61% 3,201,386
4 BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Ltd. 1.57% 2,381,294
5 SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. 1.56% 904,544
6 ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. 1.53% 3,752,269
7 ARDX Ardelyx, Inc. 1.49% 12,061,271
8 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 1.46% 224,792
9 MRNA Moderna, Inc. 1.46% 980,210
10 KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. 1.41% 736,663
XBI Biotech Long TriggerWatching for XBI Long Trigger to Develop Throughout Week - level is $88.92 (if price stays here, last price $89.01 by Friday trigger is active)
The trigger is based on the MarketWebs VolumeAtPrice Indicator
