Energy stocks back on thin iceDeep value investors are all over the energy sector but the technicals are flashing warning signals. If we lose and hold < 35.50 risk opens back up to the lower 30s.
XLE trade ideas
What has my body gotta do with trading ?Read this article here
Just because we have to stay at home due to the lockdown, it does not mean we do not need to take care of our body and mind. In fact, as a trader (be it part time or full time), we spend a lot of time on the computer (sitting down mostly).
Emotions are high as you toggle between different news, charts, forum, etc. Your heart is beating fast as you see your losses turn into profits and wondering should you take profits or not. Maybe, you forgot to put a SL and you were shocked to see your position is now in the red after an hour or so.
Such activity is common for a trader and if you do not have a time out period to chill out and do something outside of trading, you are likely going to suffer from burnout soon.
It was a nice and windy yesterday after the rain had stopped. I decided to go for a run except this time I intentionally slow down my pace and allow other runners to bypass me.
Due to my competitive nature, it does not feel good but I consciously wanted to feel and understand how to better manage it. As more and more runners pass me by and I started to calm down after a while, I realised it was not such a big deal after all. Nobody cares really, who's leading or not.
Everyone is just running according to their own pace. It is the mind that often play tricks on us, misleading us that we are out of control. I came home feeling energised and relaxed and more importantly learnt a valuable lesson. I don't have to huff and puff and run like there is no tomorrow (ya, I know the adrenaline rush when you start to sprint the last part) and yet feel accomplished as well.
That was when I decided to take the shorts in SPX500 yesterday and thank God, I was well rewarded. Allowing too many thoughts swirling in your active mind is not healthy as it need an outlet to reorganise itself. No, not through using drugs or alcohol but a healthy channel like exercise. I urge you to pick up an exercise you like - be it swimming, dancing, trekking, cycling, anything physical.
Build this into your trading schedule so that you purposely know you have to do it and you will not be so stressed up , glued to your PC and constantly worried about your positions. It helps you to avoid over trading too.
For me, I either go for my run or walk so that I can relax my mind, take this opportunity to talk to God, seek his advice on many things I am constantly thinking. I asked for signs, I pray for breakthrough (for myself, family and others),etc. Sometimes, answers come really quick, other times, it surfaced through means that I never thought of. It could be an article, a chart or even staring at my plants in the garden.
When you let go of TIME as in you do not need to force yourself to make $XXX within the hour or so, your mind becomes more relaxed. You are more open to spot opportunities and your judgement is also better. A couple of times, I went on a personal challenge to trade on 15 mins chart to see how much money I can make. It was a scary emotional ride as at the end of the session, I felt tensed and my feelings numb. There were profits and there were losses but I could not feel the joy or pain at all.
That was when I know as a trader, this is not my style. Maybe others are wired differently. The shorter the time frame, the better they perform. I can't and that does not mean I am not good. Like running, each trader is keeping to himself , doing his best , improving his own results and that is all that matters. No need to compete with others !
OPENING: XLE JUNE 19TH 30 SHORT PUT... for a 1.06 credit/contract.
Notes: With rank/implied at 47/57, going bullish assumption here with the notion that oil prices recover somewhat as COVID-related restrictions lift. My general go-to is short strangle, but didn't want to get whipped on the call side if the recovery is dramatic.
XLE - looking to start new wave?Not sure if the wave analysis is correct.
IMO if the bottom trend line holds I expect a new wave 1 to begin pushing to the first target 41.
Thoughts?
XLE mid lineI feel like you study and study and study a chart and sometimes you start to see things you haven't seen before. that's 14 touches on that lines in a little over a month. More of an observation than anything.
Loving thisXLE gaps up overnight. Oil up around 25/barrel.
Loving these call options i bought mid march for .06 a pop!! up 300% right now..
considering dumping them to some monster profits. Which basically eliminate all the beatings i took early on LOL.
Oil Prices Will Determine Where The Stock Market Goes From HereWhile the stock market continues to march higher, economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Forward-looking in nature, the stock market tends to discount (ignore) what is happening now in anticipation of what is to come over the next 6-9 months. Although top-down stimulus from central banks and governments have propped up financial markets, economic data points across the globe are signaling a prolonged downturn. For the first time in modern history (BP started keeping recording in 1861), WTI oil prices traded into negative territory reaching $-36.20 per barrel. In essence, storage facilities were giving away oil because they had no more room to store it. Oil markets have been telling us what is truly going on. But are investors listening?
Two weeks ago, OPEC+ decided to cut oil production by approximately 9.7 million barrels per day starting in May. Since that time, energy prices have been extremely volatile, falling further. Why did oil prices continue to fall despite the cut in supply? Lack of demand. Despite the fact that OPEC+ vowed to cut global supply by 10%, the gap between supply and demand has grown. Since the coronavirus accelerated, global demand for oil has fallen by 30%, leaving a 20% (20 million barrels per day) gap after accounting for OPEC+ cuts that start next month.
The lack of demand has been widespread. According to Rystad Energy AS and the Trafigura Group, energy demand is expected to fall by 28-35 million barrels per day. U.S. oil demand has fallen 30% to 14.4 million barrels a day, the lowest level going back to 1990. In its short-term outlook, the EIA forecasts the hit to oil demand will be 16.7 million barrels a day. According to country officials, India’s crude demand (third-biggest consumer) has collapsed by ~70% as the country endures the largest national lockdown. Canadian oil producers expect the gap between supply and demand to reach more than 1.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter. In Spain, oil product demand fell by 23% in March. With gasoline and road diesel falling by 35.5% and 26.5% respectively. In Italy, which together with Spain imposed some of Europe’s harshest restrictions on movement, retail fuel sales have plunged 85%.
The relationship between the S&P 500 and oil prices has strengthened over the last six weeks. The correlation (relationship) stood at .07 (statistically insignificant) in the middle of February, that figure now stands at .86 (statistically significant). Assuming there are no sizable policy stimulus that distorts prices further, I expect oil prices to dictate where the stock prices go from here. Oil price increases driven by short-term reductions in supply will not be enough. Globally, oil makes up 34% of our energy usage. Only an increase in demand will signal a genuine economic recovery. At some point, the stock market and economic fundamentals will need to be reconciled.
-Appo Agbamu, CFA
This material is for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances should any information or materials presented be used or construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, financial instruments, investments, or other services. Any investment made is at your sole discretion. There are many factors that you must consider when making an investment decision, including, but not limited to, product features, risks, whether or not an investment meets your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and other personalized factors. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing your entire investment.
XLE at .5 retraceXLE sitting comfortably at 39.55 at time of this post.
This marks the gap fill we have been looking for, and a touching of the 50% retrace mark from February. HUGELY over bought right now, so i would assume some pull back here. States are starting to open up and we have some positive news on the Drug side of things.
Comfortable staying long in this right now. Hold my Fall Call options at $55 already up 150% from when they were bought.
XLE hitting long term resistance.XLE looks like hitting long term resistance. a break above the 38.3/4 level could signal much higher prices to test bottom of previous support
Wedge Broken UPAscending wedge broken to the high side in pre market trading. Up above 37 as of now. Gilead reporting positive data on COVID drugs. Could be a positive day for most today.
Holding Fall Call options on XLE.. although we will see where the price is this morning and could dump with healthy profits..
XLE Trending in the right directionStill feeling very positive about XLE..
Targeting 39 to fill the upper gap, but need to get through 36 in a strong way to make that happen.
CVX looks like it has taken full advantage of this recent bounce while XOM seems to be stuck..
Not sure how much more room CVX has to grow right now given the current oil markets, But XOM could make up the difference.
Time will tell on this one. Sitting on Fall Call Options right now for basically nothing..
XLE could see a pullback through Sept-OctXLE could see a pullback through Sept-Oct but looks like limited upside before further drop. key resistance looks to be in 40-42.50 area. Resistance at this level and further downside later in year.
The 100 tick renko looks like price does have upside potential in short term.
Trading Ideas: Potential Oil Bottom In SightA price bottom may have arrived for oil and oil stocks ($XLE).
Chart displayed a bullish divergence of the MACD and has traded with some strength on the rebound.
A potential cup and handle reversal pattern is forming and will be validated if price can trade above the gap resistance with considerable volume.
We are currently neutral on oil.
XLE Breaks 34XLE broke $34 ceiling in premarket trading.. Needs to hold this level in order to continue up to our $36 target.. Oil seems to be stablizing a bit for now..
Bounced nicely off .618 Fib level from recent high. now above the .236 level..
Creeping into overbought territory on 30min charts. Could see a pull back in the open but should be another 3-4%gainer today.
XLE - Energy sector SPDR S/R levelsHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
Everyone sees an opportunity in the oil market. Personally, I would not invest in this commodity. There is a surplus of oil, there is no place to store it and no one wants it. It can't stop mining. But investing in the entire XLE energy sector could be interesting. Here are the main S/R zones where the price could react. Everyone makes their own point of view.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (4 000 000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
XLE compI'd think it dumps soon to catch up with crude (blue line). Not a forecast, just observing a comp.
