XLE trade ideas
Predictive Analysis/Forecast | #XLE #SPDR #AMEXBullish-to-Neutral
Awaiting Great White signal
Awaiting bearish market reversal confirmation
TG-High = 93.08 - 02 FEB 2014
TG-Low = 42.77 - 02 FEB 2014
Geo impact = Nodal core
4xQuad
XLE a trade or an option trade, your pickThis ETF got rejected on a D1 time frame at the 23 Fib retracement...
With a complete retrace back to 0..., almost like a reverse cup and handle... look out below..
1: 1 Risk to reward, even more if your daring...
2. Sell the 62 Puts 2 weeks out, and buy the 64 put January... net cost is 3.47... keep rolling, and booking premium while the pair slides lower
$XLE OUTLOOK COULD SEE RETRACE IN BOTH $WTIUSD AND $XLE. If we break the channel and go bullish we do not sell simple as that.
Head and Shoulders Vs. Bearish BatXLE is slowly making its way towards a very interesting weekly support zone - 60-62$
Notice that this price zone is the 61.8 Fibonacci level from 2009 low and from 2016.
Also notice that it is the neckline of a weekly H&S pattern.
If it will break, XLE can fall to 55$ and maybe even 50$
If it will hold as support, the extremely bullish scenario is that it will climb all the way up to complete a bearish Bat near 95$
Obviously it will have to re-test the MA lines as resistance levels first
Agree or Disagree?
It's Sunday.. you can read more about this setup and others in the newsletter
#WeeklyMarketsAnalysis (search on Twitter)
XLE flag weekly / double bottom dailyHorizontal S&R: dialy and weekly
Channel S&R: yes
MA S&R: some, 20ma
>200ma: no
Volume confirmation: yes
Candle Confirmation: no
Stoch Divergence: yes daily
Reg Trendline >85: yes
Short Float: n/a
Risk / Reward: 1.3 & 2. hope to get some at $65
Any feedback is welcomed.
looks like a good setup, though oil is a highly manipulated market.
The OIL Ascending Triangle Idea Reflected on Energy Shares XLEXLE clearly shows an Ascending Triangle pattern here, while the same pattern on OIL is a little messy to identify.
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/OIH/XLE, COSTPremium Selling
For the umpteenth week in a row, there is little in the market for high quality premium selling plays. Screening for 52-week >70 implied volatility rank, you'll basically get one quality hit at the moment, and that is COST, which has dipped significantly on AMZN/WFM merger news. A few names are approaching that 70 mark, but they have earnings three to four weeks out; you might as well wait to put on volatility contraction plays around earnings announcements in those cases. I previously set out a nondirectional play in COST (see Post below) that I didn't enter, having been distracted by something or other; I may reconsider that play now that the market's had an opportunity to digest the AMZN news.
Other names, such as NBR (petro, part of whose operations are deep water),* RAD (pharmacy in merger and acquisition with WBA), and BBRY (a kind of WTF, why are they still around) are too small in dollar value to be worth playing unless you dive in and go straight-on covered call or near-to-the-money short put.
Directionals
I've been waiting for several weeks to put on a bullish XOP, OIH, and XLE play. Each time I look at them, it appears that oil has trundled lower on rising rig count, total stock build, lackluster inventory draw, or a combination thereof.
I've been primarily watching oil prices around the supposed average shale production break even at $40 to go long in one of these underlyings. We may be close enough for me to make a play, but I'll probably continue watching. Lower is better for either a net credit put diagonal or a Poor Man's Covered Call in these guys.
Low Volatility Plays
With VIX continuing on its sub-12 bender, there probably isn't a better time to go put-side low volatility strategy in broad index underlyings (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA) using either calendars, net credit put diagonals, or debit diagonals. These capitalize on volatility expansion and movement of the underlying toward the put side, ideally allowing you to exit the short put aspect of the setup at worthless and recapture any value left in the long at the expiry of the front-month short. Heck, the dam has to break at some point ... .
* -- I regard most companies that rely substantially on deep water operations as largely doomed here. Most deep water operations require high per barrel prices that we haven't seen for a substantial period of time and aren't going to see in the short- to medium-term.
ERX/XLE - BreakingAfter the weekly key reversal and a follow through here is our trendline break on the daily chart.
I'm making the call : the energy sector has bottomed.
Oil has bottomed on the 5th of May and it's just coming out of a severe half cycle low . ERX/XLE bottomed a few days ago on the 7th of June.
We are above not just the 10 but also the 20 EMA and right now attacking the 50 EMA.
RSI is heading to overbought but if I'm right it will be overbought for a long time...
If it breaks out finally it has months to run.
