channel hold or break?market pretend to be risk off but actually i think will hold support trend line and break resistances(red line) above, breaking support (green line) considered to be EM sell off
XLE trade ideas
XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR FundEnergy needs to follow the stock market in a healthy economy - otherwise something is wrong
Neutral trade on XLE (Straddle)Looking for a neutral play on XLE (I think we are starting to have 2 way action). IVR is not that high at 26, so doing less contracts (I don't have any other position right now on XLE).
I sold the 69 Straddle for $2.78. Our break evens are just above the expected move, and this is close to a 54% probability trade.
XLE/ERX - Bear IslandThe chance is high that we are printing an island reversal today in XLE.
Yesterday a lot of players stopped out in ERX and XLE as we broke to new lows.
I think it was only a final shakeout before the next rally.
If we have a gap open today and the gap is not filled we are printing an island reversal . It would be a very strong bullish pattern in XLE and ERX.
This could sign a long term bottom in XLE and ERX. It is important that the gap should not be filled. In this case it's a runaway gap which might never get filled.
LONG follow through idea
Energy Sector Rally! New Micro Trend beginningHey Traders, We have a nice double bottom on XLE with a Strong Bullish Candle! I tried to get this out as soon as possible however I do believe there is still time for entry if this meets your rules and criteria for entry.
Reasons for Entry:
1) We have a double bottom at previous structure support.
2) We have a strong bullish engulfing candle.
3) Price has been trading below the 20 period moving average for the last week or so and has finally broken through it and retested it again as support.
4) Price has been trading on the lower Bollinger band since this down move began and this shows that the sellers were strong but now something has changed. Price is no longer riding the lower Bollinger band but instead is approaching the top band with an increase in volatility. This is a good indication that a new trend is likely to begin (check out chart below for a further explanation).
Entry- $68.00
Target 1- $68.65
Target 2- $69.20
I may trail stops for target 2 depending on the strength in this move. I will be sure to keep this idea updated. Please feel free to comment below with any questions regarding the setup or to share your analysis. Thanks Traders and good luck Trading!
XLE /ERX - Possible long term bottomWe possibly forming a longer term bottom in XLE (ERX is the 3x ETF for XLE).
Yesterday I wasn't able to post the chart I just posted below the last oil chart: I'm going to enter into ERX at the close.
XLE and ERX likes to bottom with a beartrap. When RSI leaves oversold territory it's usually a good sign we are bottoming. In this case we might be printing a longer term intermediate low and a great rally is coming.
New LONG ENTRY : 67.7 $
XLE and OilBetween military action and the breaking of the trend line, is oil not going up short term?
XLE daily chart. Trend line , sma Possible Break out.XLE daily chart. Possible Break out. Long on breakout stabilization of downtrend line and sma.
ABC possible.
XLE Roadmap Short Term March 2017Significant upside into summer.. and possibly more (see speculative View)
XLE Iron FlyTrade Setup:
-1 XLE Apr 21 65/69.5/69.5/74 Iron Fly @ $2.33
DTE: 30
Max Win: $233
Max Loss: $217
Breakevens: $67.17 & $71.83
Trade Management: 25% profit; Full loser, possibly roll the ITM side out in time if my bias is the same near expiration.
Green is profit zone; vertical black bar is expiration.
XLE about to prepare for a spurt to the north? See how price reacts at the centerline/slding/AR-Lines ?
The SWAP in Nov. 16 marked the range and of course it has to come back to breath out.
Lastly the weak hands got scared out by a very hard and final drop (red bar).
Now I can imagine that time is right to collect some premium on the downside.
Even a RiskReversal my be a good trade.
P!
XLE for SaleXLE is in a larger uptrend from last February
- it has pulled back to a consolidation range
- there is large volume on the recent down move, these are buyers to me
- this sector is lagging the over all market
- we are entering seasonally bullish period for oil
I'm a buyer here, now that can be buying the underline, leveraged buying the underline, or selling volatility in the underline. The way of getting long is up to the individual. This is not a short term position (multi year).
Energy Stocks/Oil Trend line set up 2013-2015 continued to provide support in Oct2015 but at the start of this year has broken down.
Looking to short a rally.
