$XLE - Weakness in the Energy Sector Could Bring Stage 4 DeclineThe Energy sector is notoriously one of the last to roll over in a recessionary environment and the $XLE chart appears to be topping out right on queue.
After a euphoric run beginning in the middle of 2020, the Energy sector has stalled out creating a triple top near the $90 level.
With the break of the 200-day moving average, along with an accompanying bearish momentum regime in the RSI, we expect the Energy sector to begin its descent into a Stage 4 decline.
Many individual stocks within the Energy sector look prime for capitulation events and accompanying sector weakness would further aggravate already anemic charts.
PT near 60.
XLE trade ideas
XLE (Energy)In my last my post, I XLE should bounce off 82 and retest is daily 50sma; Since then we've dropped back to 82.
Holding 82 is important for bulls. You Never want to see a Sector lose .236 fib if your a bull... .236 is a reversal fib.
Right below 82 is XLE primary trendline since 2020 lows at 80$. If we break and close below 80 we are looking at bearish reversal with my first target 72$ gap close
If we bounce we still have breakover the most recent downtrend (White line) at around 85.50, if we breakover 85, then it's back to 93$ ...
Chart looks bearish IMO; like we're in final stages of distribution.
There's been RSI divergence since last May
Fib levels are from ATH and All time low
XLE - the bigger short It's a controversial call to say energy prices are going to drop dramatically into next year but this is what the XLE chart is showing.
We're at a double top with monthly bearish RSI divergence, and the same structural trendline where it fell last time. My guess is it could get back down to 50. If it's a C leg it could happen faster than most would expect. 50 area would be a confluence of support - channel trendline and horizontal trendline, also IF a C leg comes, 50 is about 1.618 fib extension from the A leg.
This idea is invalid if XLE can hold above 102 on a monthly close. Good luck!
SPDR Select Sector Fund looking great for upside to $120Perfect Cup and Handle has formed with XLE.
We just need to wait for the crucial breakout and close above the brim level.
With moving averages, all is looking great with 7>21>200 - Green - Bullish
RSI - Buy divergence >50 - Bullish
Target 1 $120.00
GENERAL INFO:
The SPDR Select Sector Fund is a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are managed by State Street Global Advisors.
It is designed to track the performance of specific sectors of the S&P 500 index. There are 22 different funds covering sectors like Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Technology.
This is available as it's a cost-efficient way for investors to gain exposure to specific sectors of the market, without buying individual stocks.
This fund also gives an indication on the sentiment in general markets. Which looking at this analysis it's bullish and we can expect the markets to continue up in February. Fantastic!
energy in a pickleno really, this thing is set to roar. big rigs, big pigs, young hogs and motor fog. letterr rrrrrrip! were down near the bottom of the envelope, were way oversold, and the sectir is acting defensively in rotation with a bear market. id like to revisit the top of this rectangle and then dump again 🤷
XLE: A ZONE TO WATCH IN THE ENERGY SECTORSince October of 2022 we have seen an interesting zone form in the SPDR Energy Sector ETF. This zone is marked by the yellow rectangle in the chart. We noted four support bounces in this zone, a breakthrough of the zone, and two rejection bounces. This support/resistance zone is one to watch over the coming weeks. A rally into the yellow zone is one to watch closely for a potential rejection.
Energy stocks have topped... For NowFollowing the recent oil selloff the XLE sector is now pulling back. With a clear divergence in the RSI with the 3 recent price tops, it seems like the XLE has completed 5 waves up. Following that is a 3 wave correction as a flat and is now preparing to finish the last leg of it, before exploding higher sometime next year.
There's an old saying Tennessee...AMEX:XLE
Fool me once.... Shame on, Shame on you.
Fool me twice... ummm, uhhhh, you can't get fooled again. - W
Short XLE
Bear Divergence, Divergence against Crude.
XLE Targets:
Target 1 = $59 ~50% Fib Energy Point.
Target 2 = $50.50 ~61.8% Fib Energy Point.
Fat_Fat
A divergence between XLE & USOILHey all,
I'm making this post to take note of the clear divergence between XLE (energy stocks) and USOIL (the price of oil ). The movements of these two tickers tend to mirror each other, with good fundamental reason behind why- the price of oil tends to increase the profit margins of energy companies, increasing the profits these companies experience. As it is very obvious, the price movements of the two are now relatively far apart from one another with XLE being far above USOIL . I do not expect this to last, and I expect the divergence to correct itself- as history has always seemed to have done.
I imagine there are only two ways to play this divergence... 1. By betting that USOIL will catch back up to XLE , OR 2. By betting that XLE will drop down to match how low USOIL is. I would only consider playing the SECOND option as I consider myself bearish on the markets at the current stages, and believe that XLE is overdue for a significant correction; as the price of oil has dropped significantly, the profit margins of the energy companies in XLE will have decreased, meaning these companies will see decreased profits in their upcoming quarterly report(s), giving a fundamental reason for why energy companies could fall. Moreover, on smaller time frames, I believe that XLE looks as though it has lost momentum & put in a local peak, and is now going to head lower to match how low USOIL has fallen in contrast. I am open to any discussion and would love to hear different opinions.