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XLF trade ideas

XLF - a more bearish countI posted a bullish chart for US financials a little while back with it looking that nothing can hold stocks back at the moment. With the recent events of this virus (I live in Asia) I thought I should include this more bearish outlook. While it suggests that this ticker has finished a 4th wave correction and will now climb onward it also suggests that the next correction might be a biggie. As always, any count is just a possibility and while a few weeks ago I was firmly in the bullish count this Corona virus is perhaps presenting a "black swan" that hasn't fully revealed itself yet. The R1 and S1 are the yearly pivots.
AMEX:XLFLong
by tomj2417
XLF Ascending Triangle Level of Resistance $31Purely a speculation on my behalf that XLF will reject again at this $31 level like it has done several times thus far. Alternate plays would be $TLT to the upside. Bitcoin USD showing risk off action that leads me to believe the selloff isn't over and the reversal from the big upside at the open this morning for the QQQ, etc. also leads me to believe that we're not done with the selling. (I'm wrong more often than I'm right on the timing of things so may not happen immediately). But I've been using bitcoin as my compass here lately and it's been an accurate direction indicator for the broader market. Goodluck. These are my opinions only, and not trading advice.
AMEX:XLFShort
by StockPickingEnthusiast
2
The Great Financial Wall Stands StrongThe Great Financial Wall that I posted about last time has withstood 6 weeks of bullish onslaught and held. Daily MACD has turned negative and, with respect to fractal intervals, I believe the bears that have survived and remain on the wall are about to fire back. Completely exposed and with little ammunition left, I'm afraid the overly confident bulls will high tail from the wall as fast as possible or risk being slaughtered. Going short. If you don't know what you are doing, stay out and safe. Good luck friends.
AMEX:XLFShort
by supere
The Great Financial WallIt is with great sadness that I write this today. However, my humble opinion is that the assassination of Irani General Suleimani is not some singular event in the space-time continuum that can be ignored. In fact, it will, in all likelihood, eventually make it into the history books as a parallel to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand leading up to WWI. I am not supporting this man's crimes, rather condoning the thoughtless method in the which his demise came to be. Some may see President Trump as a courageous new figurehead who will bring greatness to America again. However, I see him as the mostly untold story of Hercules, a strong and insanely courageous, but *wreckless* man who will destroy decades of peaceful global collaborative progress built by generations of predecessors. Today, I throw myself out there again and predict that the next Great Wall will not be the Great Wall of China, nor the Berlin Wall, nor the Steel Wall of Mexico, but the Great Financial Wall that may not be surpassed for years to come. (Mind you, Trump has already greatly humiliated and angered two of these aforementioned great cultures during his Presidency and no good will come of that either.) I am officially switching my stance from neutral back to short based on the important trigger event that unfolded on Friday. Now it's time to patiently wait for support levels to drop out. Good luck and stay as safe as you can, friends!
AMEX:XLFShort
by supere
1
TRADE IDEA: XLF FEBRUARY 21ST 30/32 LONG PUT VERTICALWith the financials at a multi-year double top, a bet that financials announcing next week will disappoint in the aggregate in this easy/easing rate environment. Metrics: Max Profit: $96/contract Max Loss: $104/contract (which is what you'd pay to put this on). Break Even: 30.96 versus 30.69 spot Notes: Max profit is realized on a finish below the short strike at 30; anything below the break even of 30.96 is a winner; and max loss is realized on a finish above the long at 32. A basic risk one to make one, which is what I like to see out of these directional shots.
AMEX:XLFShort
by NaughtyPines
XLF - US Financials- bullishI started looking at this chart to see where I thought this thing would start a decent correction and ended up with this super bullish count. I do have a more bearish scenario that suggests that the price action from January 2018 is a much longer 4th wave correction as part of an expanding flat or some kind of flat correction and we can still expect a C wave down. However, if this sector can break through the sizable resistance of the 31 high of 2007 (it has already in fact....just) then maybe this count is not so far fetched after all.
AMEX:XLFLong
by tomj2417
XLF breeches ATHsWell, the market bulls finally did it... They breeched the financial sector's 2007 ATH at 30.97. In my opinion, this means the most rapid bear market scenario has been eliminated as we can no longer label the high as a 'C' wave from the 2008 bottom. Furthermore, the rise from those lows should now form a 5 wave impulse, which does not look complete yet. That said, my original bullish and super cycle 4th wave patterns are still possibilities. Ironically, I think breeching the ATHs also opens the door to an even more EXTREME bearish scenario in which we could be approaching a grand super cycle finale in the months ahead. Albeit, this would be a slower bear market, but extremely devastating as it could last for more than a decade. Time to sit back for a bit and see what might unfold. Right now it seems that that ATHs was sort of an iron wall, even though it was breeched. We shall see if the market can really push past with force soon.
AMEX:XLF
by supere
XLF v. TNXFinancials hit an all time high this week and made it back to the highs that occurred before the 2008-2009 crash. Note that ten year treasury yields have done nothing but slide over that same period of time and are now at the greatest spread they have been against XLF over the last 11 years. Many think yields are going up but the smart money seems to be telling a different story. The bounce in yields since the lows of the year looks to be a dead cat bounce. The 1.95% area has marked an area of resistance now for some time. If yields start moving down and we head into a recession this are gonna get real ugly. If Yields rise and give equities a run for their money stocks will also fall. The excesses in financial stock from 2007-2008 are finally back. Yeah people will say that they have underperformed but an over 600% gain from the bottom over an 11 year period is hardly a shabby return. Don't see how we could go much higher from here. RSI looks exhausted. Something has to give. Look out below!
AMEX:XLF
by BobbySpa
XLF- Double Top? or Breakout? SPY in Trouble?Well, isn't this interesting? After 12 years the XLF has finally managed to get back up to the old highs set back in 2007! Double top is exactly the same (to the penny) as 2007, as shown, just before the financial crisis for 2007-2009 happened. If we look at history the XLF began to crack and break down in 2007, giving us clues about the rest of the stock market a few months before the market began to collapse. The XLF diverged and led the market index down before other traders began to recognize that the market index was in jeopardy. So now the question is, will it happen again? More importantly is this a double top in the XLF and do we begin to set up a major market correction? Or- Will the XLF break through the resistance overhead at the high and still continue up? How likely is the XLF double top high to get broken next week? Well, very seldom does any chart show a breakout on the first try after touching the exact resistance line of a former high. We would expect a pullback very soon, if not immediately next week. Most breakout charts ,at a minimum, would pullback for a while and gather more energy by consolidating at lower levels before attempting a breakout (if that is in store). Think about a cup and handle pattern. Otherwise, if the double top is in play, we could see a huge sell off down to the green zones below as shown. Forecast is lower for the XLF going forward, with both bullish and bearish patterns... down to gather energy at a lower level for a future breakout in the bullish scenario, or a complete failure and falling back down to the green buy zones way below... either way, both ideas point down!
AMEX:XLFShort
by whiteknightmoving
2
XLF consolidation or will bulls continue to push upTICKER: $XLF Unlike SPY and QQQ, XLF confirmed its daily bull flag. However, we did see a red candlestick on Friday 12/13 to close out the week. Could this be the first indication of consolidation for the market? Keep in mind the financial sector is one of the top three section in the market. Also keep in mind that we closed green for ten weeks straight (see weekly chart). Weekly RSI is approaching 70, but anything above daily support of $30.13 is just a higher low. Break 30.13 and it will be the start of weekly consolidation. IMPORTANT: XLF is not at its all time high. We are in the resistance zone with XLF's ALL TIME HIGH being $30.97.
AMEX:XLF
by DerekTradeEZ
Super bull???I'm shaking my head in disbelief day after day. This bull market continues to defy gravity. Today, the NYA broke ATHs and this critical financial sector that I have shouted about time and time again is closer than ever to exceeding the 2007 ATHs. Crossing this high may completely change the game, igniting a super bull breakout condition in the process. The rational part of me still cannot believe this possibility with deteriorating economic conditions, growing geopolitical tensions, extreme bearish divergence and abysmal volume, yet here it looking me straight in the eye. I think we shall see in a day or two what the reality may be. Will the market continue to climb the seemingly impossible obstacles and blow straight up, or will it collide head first into an iron clad wall and completely knock itself out? K.O. Of course, there are in-between scenarios as my other dotted line scenarios depict, but I have a feeling the finale will be extremely dramatic, either up or down. Good luck, friends!
AMEX:XLF
by supere
1
XLF Strong compared to other sectorsTicker: $XLF Huge gap up open and bulls ran with it. The only reason why SPY was so strong is because of the financial sector. XLF closed above the All time high (30.33)! We need more bull volume to confirm it is a clear break or else I would still consider it a double top with 30.33 if we reject. If we consolidate pre market and bulls open with fire, that would be ideal for bulls. If we consolidate hard, expect a 4 hour high low to form because retesting the All time high of 30.46.
AMEX:XLF
by DerekTradeEZ
Is there a serious turning point?S&P 500 was down 27.11 points with a 0.86% drop in yesterday's trading session. In the past few weeks SPY straightened up almost every day since the beginning of October, and during this period SPY smoothly waved inside of the expected move which indicated by options chain. However, yesterday SPY edged downside of this range and people started questioning if it was a turning point for the market. So today, I am going to detail some things that you may need to be aware of if the market actually is going down seriously. As we start to look at the SPY, yesterday's session caught some sell-side activities, but it's was not took place in SPY first, it's started with the QQQ and then affected on various parts of the broader market. Yet, some capitals are still finding its best rotation in the products like MO. For further details, what you really need to consider is the financials, and XLF was down 0.63% yesterday. Why should detail XLF? Because XLF as the market's fundamentals, that led the market to the rally in the past two months with an 11.13% gain while SPY had up 7.31%, on a YTD basis, it has increased roughly 25%. So if you want to see a major sell-off activity to take place in the market that has to be led by the financials, currently it just remained solid in the market place. With some sell-side activity still on holds, what do traders do, they simply just flip over to the bond markets. Since we are seeing that TLT is still in the downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, XLF would not necessarily lead the market to the downside. People always mention about the technology, but for now you should forget about the tech sector, the tech sector may be could step into some sell-side activities but it ain't gonna get things done. If the market is going to get hammered it has to be done by financials. Besides if you try to take look at BAC, BAC is still up in the last trading session. With the big bets detected from yesterday's options chain, BAC got over 1 million valued long calls scheduled in December which also could signal people seems to be quite bullish on these banks for moving forward.
AMEX:XLF
by Khabilan
Extremely important junctionThanksgiving 2019: Next week's financial index movement shall perhaps be the single most important of the entire US market. Although we are in a short term state of bullish exhilaration, bearishness has been a prevalent theme of the entire bull run since 2008 with crash theories surrounding every juncture. XLF is perhaps the only remaining index that clearly still shows why, because it still has not exceeded the 2007 highs. However, we are ticks away from exceeding that high now. My theory is that if XLF fails to exceed that high of 30.87, then the most bearish theories that exist suggesting near complete destruction of the financial system as we know it and eventual market crash back toward the 2008 lows are still valid. However, if we shoot past this value, then I doubt that any such crash will come to pass in the decades ahead and the central banks will at least have succeeded in protecting America's financial system and the market lows of 666. I do not know what will pass, but I think we are at a very important juncture.
AMEX:XLF
by supere
1