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XLF trade ideas

Financials (XLF) Bullish Wedge or forming Head of H&SFinancials have sputtered as of late, and this can be interpreted in two ways: Scenario 1: This is a bullish wedge and because of expected future interest rate hikes financials will break out and create new highs in the $32 -$35 range for the AMEX:XLF . Supporting this is the RSI hit lows previously seen on 3/22 and all the way back to the beginning of 2016. Stoch has also recently hit a low and moving upward. Further, the selling pressure has been strong but the stock has remained in the bullish wedge pattern. Scenario 2: Selling pressure will break through the wedge formation and the stock will retrace to the ~$23 level. XLF has declined following almost every recent interest rate hike. Stock will retrace to $23 then bounce off support and subsequently fall after hitting resistance (previous support line for wedge). In the market we are in, I would error on the side of the trend (bullish). However, based on the way financials have behaved as of late, I would not be surprised if scenario 2 would occur. Either way, breakouts either way could be quite profitable if the proper stops are put in place.
AMEX:XLF
by myfye13
Interest rates don't matter for XLF, lolSo here we are, right back to the same price level as the last Fed rate announcement. Complete retrace of the tank for XLF, along with AMZN. In fact, retail XRT is actually higher than it was before the announcement, because apparently neither banks nor retail care about interest rates, lol. Look at HYG, corporate bonds are right back up there as well. If the market makes any sense, this will trade between here and $22 for a while then H&S down to $19 eventually. However, nothing seems very logical in this market (look at the price action on GOOGL), for all I know, they can jack the market right back up. My best guess is a down week next week with a possible double bottom the following week (see my SPY post). I doubt they can jack up the Dow by 800 pts again next week, so at least there's a chance that crappy stocks will go down. Let's just hope they don;t melt the market up like last January.
AMEX:XLF
by hungry_hippo
TRADE IDEA: XLF JUNE 21ST/FEB 15TH 21/24 UPWARD CALL DIAGONALMetrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: 2.18/contract Max Profit on Setup: .82/contract Break Even: 23.18 vs. 22.81 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 72.7% Theta: .26 Delta: 37.46 Notes: Here, I'm just shopping around for particularly weak sectors in which to put on bullish assumption plays that will have plenty of time to work out and/or reduce cost basis in. Typically, I shoot for a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading, but am settling for a <75% debit paid to spread width ratio with a less than ideal break even here than what I typically do. Consequently, I'm paying less at the door than I ordinarily would, but still have a shot at getting a 27.3% return on cap invested in the event price finishes below the short call.
AMEX:XLFLong
by NaughtyPines
$XLF Financials ETF - Oversold at Support$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow . If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year end. With a lot of people expecting the worst, call options are looking fairly cheap in my opinion. I'm looking at the Dec 31st $24.00 strike calls that closed today around 40 cents. With a break even (excl. commissions) of $24.40 and the ETF closing today at $23.91, you would only need a ~2.1% move up from today's close to reach break even and you have about two weeks to do so. Depending on your risk appetite, you could move to the higher delta ITM (in-the-money) calls if you prefer. If the FED does end up raising rates tomorrow, I think we could easily see $23 or worse by year end. Hedging with a straddle or strangle options play would probably be the smartest approach. But as in everything, higher the risk higher the reward. Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
AMEX:XLFLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
Market resistances are clear on every time frameSPY closed at the low of the week with only the low of October 259.85 as support, and we are likely to test that level first thing next week. It's clear the MA20 on every timeframe is important for SPY, and both the tech and financial sectors and this has been rejecting every bounce attempt on every timeframe so far. Bears have the momentum on every timeframe; we're watching for changes of 4 hour trends and until then, the bulls are proving nothing to us
AMEX:XLF
by McGuireTO
1
My outlook on XLFFor some reason today I took out the chart on XLF and saw my wave projection which I outlined after the materialization of wave 3 and was very surprised. We have a very nice red 9 setup to lock in wave 4. Price is now heading to finish wave 5 at around $24. I was about to re adjust the wave 4 to fit in the realistic price action but somehow felt that it is better to leave the wave projection as is. I look forward to seeing wave 5 being achieved. The trade idea is invalidated when price breaks above wave 4. For those Elliott Wave Theory users please note that I am not utilizing the original Elliott Wave Theory rules. I follow a mechanized version of Elliott Wave created by Mr. Tom Demark which abides different ruleset. Anyways, stay safe out there and good luck trading.
AMEX:XLFShort
by kidze