XLF Double Top?Seems like we're done with another real estate and stock market bubble, could be a double top on XLF.
XLF trade ideas
#SP500 Sectors identical path to #SPX - #XLI #XLF and #XLK Just another indicator, they are sectors within the SPX, so they should follow the index, but these sectors are showing the path.
Market resistances are clear on every time frameSPY closed at the low of the week with only the low of October 259.85 as support, and we are likely to test that level first thing next week. It's clear the MA20 on every timeframe is important for SPY, and both the tech and financial sectors and this has been rejecting every bounce attempt on every timeframe so far.
Bears have the momentum on every timeframe; we're watching for changes of 4 hour trends and until then, the bulls are proving nothing to us
My outlook on XLFFor some reason today I took out the chart on XLF and saw my wave projection which I outlined after the materialization of wave 3 and was very surprised. We have a very nice red 9 setup to lock in wave 4. Price is now heading to finish wave 5 at around $24.
I was about to re adjust the wave 4 to fit in the realistic price action but somehow felt that it is better to leave the wave projection as is.
I look forward to seeing wave 5 being achieved. The trade idea is invalidated when price breaks above wave 4.
For those Elliott Wave Theory users please note that I am not utilizing the original Elliott Wave Theory rules. I follow a mechanized version of Elliott Wave created by Mr. Tom Demark which abides different ruleset.
Anyways, stay safe out there and good luck trading.
Confirming The Decline..Big Money Banks Stocks Rolling OverBig Money Bank Stocks, Wall Streets most important and pretigious stock group
are once again confirming the renewed sharp selloff, and breakdown in the stock market.
Goldman Sachs, the crown jewel of investment banking,
and the leading large cap stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was down over 7 % today !
You should always pay attention to the financials,large cap bank stocks. They hold an important key.
If the banks in XLF roll over from these levels,
then you will have quantified evidence, that something very serious is once again going on, that you might not be aware of.
Big money, sometimes called the "smart money..."
is always the first, and perhaps the most important money,. to leave the stock market.
Shouldn't you follow their lead... ?
THE_UNWIND
11/12/18 540 PM
NEW YORK
XLF - US Financials - bullishAnother US sector chart that could be seeing a bullish 5th wave going forward. The scary thing about these counts is that perhaps they are a little too obvious!
Failed Breakdown, BullishFinancials lost key support on a large gap down.
They then had a large gap up back above that key support.
This is a textbook failed brekdown. Use the island gap levels to set your risk.
5 down in XLF... but the real question is: is it over or not. There is no notable momentum divergence, or any other indication pricewise. Sentiment is negative, but that is clearly not enough to declare the move complete.
XLF coming back ?Inside day . Bouncy at support here and noticeable divergence. Entry above today's high
XLF 1Nice correction across all sectors, however I am fairly bullish off of strong economic data, and especially considering rising interest rates (great for the financial sector). Personally (not well justified) I believe the current unrest in the market is overblown especially for US equities. With BAC and GS also beating estimates and a large portion of the S&P500 reporting within the next few weeks (AMTD, COF soon) I believe underlying sentiment will be reset and the current worries will be swept under the rug. Not necessarily new all time highs but I see a fair margin of upside. Holding Jan/19 XLFc55, looking to close early-mid November.
When Banks Lead The Decline..., Pay Heed !Institutional BIG MONEY took advantage of the overnight bounce in China,
to LIQUIDATE large amounts of stock from US banks and the important financial stocks
in the XLF on 10/22/18, putting price right down to important support, after a loss of 2 % today.
The significance of what happens next this week in the banks, cannot be overstated.
A break of support here,in XLF right now, would have serious implications for the rest of the market.
THE_UNWIND
XLF - also looking quite bullishTo add to the fuel from XLI, we also have fuel from XLF, to drive the market higher
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, C, JPM, WFC EARNINGS; EWZ, TLT/TBTAlthough the earnings season has already kicked off modestly, a bevvy of financials announce next week: C, JPM, and WFC (all on Friday). I generally don't play these underlyings for volatility contraction around earnings primarily because the implied volatility just doesn't ramp up to the degree I'd like to see for a play. I thought I'd mention them here since there will be possible broad sector (XLF) impact depending on how these earnings go -- i.e., there could be a play that develops in one of these underlyings post-announcement or in the sector as a whole that may be worth playing.
Other Earnings: DAL (rank 41/30-day 32) announces earnings on Thursday before market open. The metrics don't look promising here for a directionally neutral premium selling play, but I could see going for something bullish if earnings experience engine failure and crash into the 52-week low around 48 and implied volatility remains high such that a bullish assumption play would be productive (e.g., short puts, Jade Lizard, etc.).
Although there are some other single names that are "ripe" for a volatility contraction play right here (TSLA (earnings in 31) comes to mind), my general tendency is to resist the urge to put plays on in single name with earnings announcements that are near the monthly and instead wait until the eve of the announcement. With a rank of 99 and implied of >100%, though, it's understandably tough to sit on one's hands and wait.
On the Exchange-Trade Fund Front:
Brazil is voting today, so it's likely that you're too late to get into a volatility contraction play that may evolve after the results are finalized (the time to have put that play on was last week). That being said, it's also possible that EWZ gets even more volatile depending on the outcome, even though implied volatility is at the top of its 52-week range at 56.2%.
The financial media has returned to covering 10-year T note yield hand-wringing and/or the spiking of bond yields in general as a general, explanatory theme of why the broad market gave some up last week. TLT broke through long-term support at 116 last week, cratering to 113. I was previously shorting TLT from the 122 level via put diagonals, but it appears that play may have temporarily played out in the absence of some risk-off event that drives treasuries back up. I will continue to short TLT on retrace, but there is little that sticks out to me in terms of horizontal resistance other than 122 and 116, and I'm hesitant to short from 116, since it literally just broke that level "seconds ago" in the scheme of things.
XLF Threatens to Break the short Term TrendXLF already closed out of the momentum phases intermediate and Closed right at the Short term Bearish crossover. Things looking bad for Financials here.
XLF Important Financial SPDR.. Suddenly Dropping SharplyS+P Select Spider ETF XLF,
a basket of the most important financial stocks,
including money center banks have been dropping sharply in the last week.
Somehow big money always seem to know and then exit ahead of material adverse news.
It's really uncanny, and it's been that way since the 1920's,
as they were early getting out then ahead of the great stock market crash of 1929.
By the way XLF, the financials are reacting to the Italian bank debt crisis,
one can obviously see the genuine concern for contagion risk is very real.
THE_UNWIND
$XLF bullish credit spreadNew bullish credit spread on XLF (financials) for OCT 12! Not this Friday. Solid movement this morning in the market and financials is starting to show strength. Decided to take this move out two weeks to allow for the bottom to confirm and some bullish movement to occur.
Entry 27.79
Max profit 28.50
Break even 28.14
0.38:1 risk/reward
XLF coming into a Trend LineI like the idea XLF is coming into a trend line but whole lot of price value is still below. I know the chart doesn't show the volume profile but 27.41 has to hold. Any lower and we could really see a market correction.
broke my stop and go - at the beginning it broke out the long term resistant (blue arrow)
- it did not continue going up, instead it came back and re tested the supportive line (yellow horizontal line)
- broke the support and also my stop (the lower horizontal line
- it did not continue the downward trend, instead it rebound right away with a long solid candlestick
lesson
- not chase at the top of the breaking out candlestick, it would be a hard time if it retraced
- how to set up an effective STOP?
- buy at the failure of going down is safer than buy at the top of breaking out
