XLF trade ideas
Inverse H&SOne way see the price of the Financial Sector performing over the next few weeks. A breakout out could easily jump to 29.79 without much overhead resistance. However, these Inverse H&S patterns like to back test breakout points as support so I could see a zigzag price movement the way up.
XLF Hitting ResistanceI took my XLF off the table from $27.04. Was only looking for a move to the downtrend line. It is hitting some overhead resistance.
XLF - Falling wedge breakout buying opportunity**Market Structure**
-A falling wedge has broken
-Due to the price rise going into the wedge as well as the downward sloping nature of this wedge, that gives is a solidly bullish bias
-The overall markets have been bullish and we could see the tide lifting all ships higher
**Trading Tips**
-A bearish pinbar has formed on the daily so we may see price drop lower in the near term
-I expect the overall bullish picture to stay intact, and so any push lower may be met with strong buying
-If price does drop lower to retest the upper channel of the falling wedge, using this price action information (bullish trend, bullish pattern breakout), it may create a high probably buying opportunity
**Trading Ideas**
-This ETF could be purchased outright right now for a decent risk/reward setup
-If you are willing to wait and see if price falls it may offer a better entry point, at the risk of missing the trade if it doesn't fall
-The price target is the peak of the pattern @ $30 so different ways to get long this trade are to buy the stock outright, create a synthetic long position buy selling a put and buying a call at the same strike(about 1:5 leverage), or selling a vertical put spread for a defined risk trade
XLF: Long Financials Long Financials, big banks posted strong earnings across the board two weeks ago. Didn't get much attention with analyst citing the flattening yield curve having negative effects on future earnings. Chart recently broke out on weekly and daily time frames. Got a little trigger happy with tech and healthcare this month, looking to be more defensive. Bought Aug 10 29 calls the other week, also adding equity for the long run. Also looking at JPM and BAC.
TA:
MACD(12,26,9): On the daily chart MACD signal line crossed early in the month of July, and still gaining momentum. The weekly is much more interesting, as I've been waiting a couple weeks to enter this, weekly is showing a bullish signal for the week as of today.
Momentum: Just turned positive on the weekly chart and making higher highs/lows
Trendlines: XLF is breaking out of a downward facing wedge, waited for the confirmation to add equity. Currently trading in a very steep channel on the daily that most likely won't hold, but the weekly MACD plus the trend breakout is very attractive to me.
Added 100 shares at 28.359
First target 29.00 Second 30.00
XLFBanks appears to have begun a break out, I'm looking to break middle BB on weekly for trigger then stop out. I like the 5ma on the weekly beginning to turn up in coordination with the could as building support.
In all, Friday showed some potential signs of a pullback/consolidation (I try not to guess based on one day though), so will look for that middle BB to give clue.
Second consideration, attempt to find single banks with relative strength on the assumption that the XLF takes confirms break out.
Just some thoughts.
A wedge, which when breaking generates a bullish projection.Two purchase signals with the ichimoku indicator, an ascending wedge that projects the 31 usd when breaking, and the koncorde indicating the interest on the part of institutional ones. Draw your own conclusions about it. twitter: @charly1030284
XLF..Falling wedge. Pivot point support at trend line support (wedge pattern) held nicely.. now fib level in play and trend line resistance to deal with... Its all going on !!
$XLF - Move up comingFisher TF cross targeting 1.618 fib extension, which should lift the market. Possible upthrust coming. Seeing lots of blocks in banking individual names and XLF
XLF - Key support levelThe trend line with the moving average is week in the financial sector. The only and key technical support for the sector is to keep the price action over 26.5. Otherwise the free fall is unstoppable.
$XLF long-term bullishO a start position on $XLF June 2019 $30 calls, as I cannot exclude the possibility of XLF starting a FOMO run up (route blue)
Although, since that in short-term SPX and QQQ do not have much room, I tend to think route green has a higher chance to happen, and (if route green comes true) I will buy the dip hard on $27.5 area.
XLF Has Its Pre Financial Crisis High In SightsThe popular ETF, XLF follows the financial sector and after weeks of selling, it looks to have found support and be gearing up for a big move indicated by the Weekly Squeeze coiling for the past 8 weeks, with the momentum shifting to bullish this week. If you take a look at C (Citigroup), it too has a Weekly Squeeze. If you take a look at it on a Daily it also has a Squeeze which looks like it will fire long. If this move for the financial sector plays out long, I would expect a retest of its high back from January (30.33) then a retest of it's high of 30.84. This high (30.84 - May 28, 2007 - 11+ year ago) is an important one because this was the peak of the financial sector ETF ( XLF ) before the financial crisis of 2008.
XLF - sub-fractal identifiedXLF is potentially in a pretty bearish posture but I give it allowance for one more pop into the orange box specified. After that I would be short. I don't like the setup to be long here.
It is very interesting that my fractal identification method has picked out a sub-fractal if you will -- i.e. a pattern in the daily, which has previously presented itself in the hourly.
If I overlay that onto the daily chart, I see we should pop into one more high before turning down
XLF - FinancialsLooking for a cashflow trade in the smaller accounts.
Sold -1 Jul20 $27 put for $.60. I will continue to wheel, roll, and cashflow this as long as I can.
XFL LongPossible long opportunity XLF, bullish triangle continuation.
BUY the break-out above $27.80ish mark
XLF finding support, ready to go ahead of Big Bank EarningsOld resistance acting as support for XLF, earnings reports for big banks begin Friday, 7/13. Option shown on chart for long position, current bid/ask. GLTA.
Death Crosses AboundA few sectors are signaling troubles ahead, with their 50 day MA's crossing below their 200 day MA's.
This chart picture shows SPY (upper left) as a broad gauge of market action. It has yet to experience the "death cross."
However, the industrial stocks measured by XLI (upper right), materials stocks measured by XLB, and financial stocks measured by XLF have all experienced the death cross. Given their importance as a proxy for future growth, this seems to bode poorly for broader markets.
Buy the Banks, Suckers!Every time I turn on CNBC, FBN, or the like, I hear a pundit or analyst pounding the table to "buy the banks." The go on to ramble a spiel about low valuation rations (P/B, P/E, P/FCF, etc), rising rate environments, yield curve inversions, and other reasons that they should outperform the markets going forward. But who's biting?
A quick glance at the SPDR financial ETF - XLF - and you will likely arrive at the conclusion that this is a sell, not a buy. We've broken short term trends (red dotted lines), intermediate term trend (orange dotted line) from 2016 lows, and are approaching a trend line (green dotted line) from the recession lows nearly a decade ago. Even worse, it looks to have formed a double top at the $30 level, the first peak coming in 2007.
Until there's a bid to reverse trend, this is a hard sell. Support looks to come in around $25. If that fails, the next support is around $21, but that's crash-level support.
Of course, one must ponder... if the banks are rolling over, how well can the broader markets hold up? Is this the warning shots of a larger correction in the markets? Hmm...
