XLF breaking out?XLF has had a pretty good month so far. Probably the worst sector is showing some signs of life despite issues with the banking system. This week XLF has poked its head above the triangle and the close was pretty good. Volume increased from last week as the down trendline was breached. Now, it is not a confirmed breakout yet as horizontal resistance is right above it and things are getting a bit overheated in the shorter time frames. It will be interesting to see how the pullback plays out. Markets are due for a nice pullback soon. If $31.5 - $32.5 area holds on the pullback then it might go off to finish the primary wave 5 sometime during the first half of 2024. This may also pull regional bank stocks that will benefit Russell and IWM.
XLF trade ideas
XLF very bearishHi traders
XLF looks very bearish. Look at the daily candle from yesterday! No wicks. Bears are in a full control. Not expecting any short-term reversal on XLF yet.
Lower highs shows an on-going bearish distribution. Once we get a mark-down phase, XLF can drop even 10 % from the current levels.
Downtrending RSI confirms our bearish bias.
The target for shorts / entry for longs area is shown on the chart.
Good luck
XLF - Looking Very WeakFinancials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line.
A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower.
Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short.
With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest margins are being squeezed. Will we see another banking crisis?
The last time we saw the XLF close below the weekly 50MA, we saw a quick 10% drop.
Financials Could Be Breaking OutFinancials have been in the doghouse since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March, but now there could be signs of improvement.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector ETF is the falling trendline that began early last year. XLF’s rally through July battled against that resistance. It pulled back in August but has now pushed through that line again. Is the downtrend finally ending?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in mid-August. That could also show a more bullish longer-term trend.
Third, the August low around $33.60 represented a 50 percent retracement of the move between early June and late July. Does that confirm direction is skewed to the upside?
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector ETF
1-year: +4.02%
5-year: +21.36%
10-year: +117.73%
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The largest ETF focused on the financial sector, XLF, is indicatXLF's trajectory is akin to that of IWM, with the primary distinction being the emergence of a 'death hook' pattern on a notably larger chart. This amplification in scale should, in theory, enhance the pattern's precision.
Compounding the challenges for this sector, the price has dropped below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) with apparent ease. This breach signifies a concerning lack of support from these key moving averages.
Recent downgrades by Fitch and Standard & Poor's (S&P) of various banks are expected to exert a sustained negative influence on this sector. Furthermore, the financial sector faces issues tied to elevated interest rates and the persistently high yields of the 10-year Treasury note. Consequently, the sector's trajectory is likely to remain downward, potentially resulting in a breach of the lower trend line and triggering a substantial drop across the banking sector.
It's essential to consider that despite favorable reports from individual companies like NVDA, the broader market's performance heavily relies on the strength of both smaller companies and financial institutions. A robust market tends to hinge on the vitality of the banking sector."
The Financials - back to the scene of the crimeTo the top of this channel again, and my guess is we go back down one more time. I'm thinking similar for the market - down for a nice drop and then a smaller bounce up to create more long term sideways action. The financials may outperform to the downside over the next few weeks/months, but should find support again around 31 - so a 20% drop is what I'm expecting soon. What would cause it? I have no idea.
XLF is aliveNothing better for financials than a FED hike pause. XLF daily chart is experiencing a 21/50 EMA crossover (purple converging with green line), has crossed above the Ichimuku cloud, and sits currently right at 200 day EMA (red line), which is also a key Gann level. XLF could reverse downward off this 200 day EMA, but there is a low volume profile above, so it has potential to rocket above into the next Gann line at 34.48. Given the apparent bullishness in the general indices, I give this bullish potential good odds.
Nevertheless, we are not out of the woods with financials in the longer run, should rates remain high, the odds of more financial sector defaults remains high.
Most important $$$ sector in the American marketWe are likely approaching the event that will finally close the bull!@#$ MMT chapter of investment banking. The XLF sector is the most important sector to monitor as the speed and magnitude of its decline will likely dictate how the rest of the sectors will follow. Despite what the FED, government and bankers want us to believe, the financial system is not stable. It is grossly leveraged in CLOs, CMOs, general debt and other corrupt forms of financial engineering, and it shall have to fall for balance to finally return to the financial world. This is exemplified recently by "sudden" collapses of fairly major banks like Silvergate, SVB and soon CS. My hope is the event will not hurt us, the people, too severely when it finally crashes to its final destination. All the green circles are important and possible pausing points, but there is no need to pause anywhere if there is a credit event. GL.
Bullish Cypher target $37Looking at this trading range, I've spotted a previous bearish cypher, a current bullish cypher. Price Action has retrace back to the Previous (B) leg of the Bearish Cypher. The Previous resistances, is currently acting as support for the D leg of the present bullish cypher.
We can confirm this w/ the bottom of the Stoch RSI.
I'm looking to buy put options on $faz ( the financial 3x bear ETF ) near the open bell Monday Morning.. I can also buy shares in the premarket of $xlf or call options. It will depend on the price action of both at that time.
XLF is ready for a new major dropXLF is yet again in a rising wedge. It seems financials like rising wedges :)
XLF is rising on lower volume which is very bearish, especially after such a strong drop which indicates more pain to come. RSI did recover after oversold territory. Everything is set for JPM report tomorrow.
If the rising wedge falls out, first target is blue dotted line and if that breaks ohhhh