XLRE watch $42.15: proven Golden Genesis fib to determine TrendXLRE (Real Estate) has bounced back strong.
BUT just hit a Golden Genesis fib at $42.15
Look for a likely dip to one of the fibs below.
XLRE trade ideas
The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders.
My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%.
What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels.
Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise.
I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown.
I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event.
Get some.
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Fed rate cut sector watchHere's a Fed rate cut sector watch split view charts with TTCATR and FibTSI indicators. On Wednesday 9/18/24 at 2pm, the FOMC is forecast to cut the interest rate .25 from 5.5% down to 5.25%. The sectors that could benefit the most from a .25 rate cut are utilities, real estate and consumer discretionary. However, the market has, more or less, already priced in a fair bull run in XLU, XLRE & XLY since August. Overall, most sectors will benefit from a .25 rate cut. But the market could be very volatile this week. With bulls wanting .50 rate cut, then being disappointed with a sell off, then bears get offsides with a relief rally. I'm posting this as neither long or short because I think they'll be opportunities to trade in either direction this week.
XLK Technology
XLE Energy
XLV Health Care
XLF Financials
XLB Materials
XLY Consumer Discretionary
XLU Utilities
XLRE Real Estate
Communication Services XLC, Consumer Staples XLP, Industrials XLI.
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff.
Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after.
I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything.
Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
XLREReal Estate Sector SPDR Fund!
DOWN, DOWN, DOWN
As soon as it break horizontal line we see Target by Arrow!
XLRE Weekly Chart Okay so real estate broke out of its down trend November of last year, and its been pretty much trading sideways ever since. Call me crazy but this level seems real important to me. In MY OPINION, not a fact, XLRE needs a strong push and close above this level to even touch this sector. Do I really even need to say what happens to XLRE if it's below this level.
1/25/24 Sector Watch1/25/24 Sector Watch:
XLK Technology
XLE Energy
XLV Health Care
XLF Financials
XLB Materials
XLY Consumer Discretionary
XLU Utilities
XLRE Real Estate
Communication Services XLC, Consumer Staples XLP, Industrials XLI.
Economic Calendar results 1/25/24
Actual Forecast Previous
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% 0.2% 0.5%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 3.3% 2.0% 4.9%
Initial Jobless Claims 214K 200K 189K
Real Estate Sector AVWAP Squeeze PatternThe real-estate sector is in an AVWAP squeeze pattern. Look for a break out above $38.90
XLRE: Support and resistanceAMEX:XLRE
Let's see if Real estate is going for a correctio or it has gas to go up again.
Looks like a stagnation or correction for a long period.
If FED starts printing, expect it to go higher.
My theory:
1. Correction into FED pause.
2. Quick downside into FED rate cut.
3. Start the bull run again once FED starts printing and Rates go below 3%.
Cheers
XLRE - Bearish BreakdownReal Estate looks to be in for a bumpy ride.
this ETF has just triggered a massive breakdown that suggest much more downside.
Why is real estate so weak? 2 words...Rising Yields.
REITs at Risk?Real estate investment trusts have struggled this year, and now some traders may look for a bearish move.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund is the series of higher lows in May, June and August. XLRE has struggled to hold the line in the past week, which may suggest it’s a bearish flag in the longer-term downtrend starting in early 2022.
Second, notice the lower highs at two key points. In July, the REIT index failed to reclaim the June 2022 low around $38.63. It then slid below the July 18 low of $37.82 and has remained there since. Is this a double case of old support becoming new resistance?
Third, you have a large bearish engulfing candle on July 27.
Fourth, prices have consolidated below the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). That may suggest its longer-term downtrend is still in effect. (Interestingly, XLRE never had a “golden cross” this year.)
Finally, MACD has been on falling since late last month.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund® (XLRE):
1-year: -13.87%
5-years: +15.55%
10-years: N/A
(As of July 31, 2023)
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XLRE possible BreakoutXLRE is trying to breakout of a small basing formation.
With rates surging recently one has to question a potential failure of this breakout, however if it does breakout there may be some significant momentum to the upside. Could this breakout coincide with a sudden drop in rates?
Getting caught in the interest-rate trapThe low interest rates set by central banks in recent years have led to a real estate boom in the U.S. and Europe, but as interest rates begin to rise rapidly, banks and real estate companies may become insolvent. The commercial real estate market is in shock and transactions are not as frequent. The high prices of real estate will have to fall until rental yields are in line with interest on debt. This will result in losses for investors and investment vehicles lured into the market by low interest rates. The situation is particularly dire in Europe, where interest rates are even lower than in the United States.
Real estate companies are experiencing financial difficulties, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index losing 40% last year. Many companies' bonds are now trading as junk, despite having investment-grade ratings. Germany's Vonovia is one such company, with a rental yield of just 3% and refinancing costs of over 5%. This means that the company is paying more to refinance its debt than it is earning in rental income, which is not sustainable in the long term.Many real estate funds are also affected, including Blackstone's B-REIT, which has seen significant redemption requests.
Banks are also in trouble because they have a lot of loans to commercial real estate companies that are unlikely to be repaid. They also have a problem with residential mortgages, because if property values fall and people lose income in a recession, they may not be able to pay back their loans. In addition, people are moving their savings out of banks and into government bonds and money market funds that offer higher interest rates, putting banks in a difficult position.
Bad news:
The banks are completely caught in the interest rate trap: if they raise deposit rates to keep savers, their already measly interest margin shrinks and they lose money every day. If they do not raise deposit rates, the bank run continues and they risk becoming illiquid like Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. So it looks like another credit crunch similar to the 2008 financial crisis. Banks are cutting back on new lending, which is causing lending to fall sharply and exacerbating the credit crunch among over-indebted companies. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of bankruptcies and forced sales. Interest premiums on new loans and bonds rise, leading to a self-reinforcing downward spiral. The eventual demand for government and central bank intervention will ultimately be paid for by the general public.
The bottom line:
It feels like the financial sector is lurching towards a new crisis, lured into the trap of more than a decade of measly interest rates and years of bad investments of capital. In my view, shares of banks from all former low-interest countries are currently not worth investing in, no matter how favourable their valuations may look. The extent of the damage can hardly be estimated at the beginning of the crisis and total losses are imminent. But also stocks of other companies, which have more or less fixed income for a longer period of time and have to finance themselves on the capital market at higher interest rates in the short term, are red-hot - above all real estate companies or infrastructure investments.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR ETF Chart Fibonacci Analysis 0308231) Find a FIBO Slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 39/61.80%
XLRE ShortJust something I'm watching for consolidation or retracement. This is not financial advice; this is purely for educational / learning purposes.
Daily TF:
XLRE...Looking for a downside move on the real estate sector as its forming a rising wedge at the moment. While your at it follow my other account @dting5 I'll be posting there within the next month!
A bounce in a real estate bear marketHey all,
I entered a large-sized short on XLRE this morning, likely with an outlook of 2ish months. I believe XLRE either made a top this morning or is due to put in a significant top very soon. There are many reasons why I decided to do this, and I'll get into that-
Firstly, real estate is fundamentally very ugly right now; with 30Y mortgages at 6.58% interest (MORTGAGE30US), and 3 consecutive months of declining home prices(Last occurred in the 2008/9 recession, I believe), there is very little reason to be bullish on real estate here, at least fundamentally. Moreover, with interest rates that are still rising, and are likely to stay high for an extended period of time in the FED's fight against inflation, there is very little reason to believe that mortgage interest rates will fall; this will make homebuying particularly unattractive, especially paired with the still relatively high home prices. The issues with real estate are likely to get worse before they improve- at least to my estimation.
Now that my fundamental case is there, Let's dive into the technicals. One thing that stands out about XLRE to me is how it seems to make the same rejection pattern every time it puts in a local top; I have it drawn out to recognize this pattern. It has currently repeated this pattern- where it consolidates, explodes upwards, then proceeds to reject & explode to the downside. Right now, XLRE is in a downtrend- and is in a larger-term trend that very much appears dome-like. To me, this suggests a loss of momentum, and, considering it is still in a downtrend, I believe the correct way to approach this name is to bet with the trend. I believe XLRE will make new lows, and my money is where my mouth is on this one. I am certainly open to any opposing opinions and look forward to what you guys have to say!
XLRE | Real Estate Oversold | BounceUnder normal market conditions, the fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes securities of companies from the following industries: real estate management and development and REITs, excluding mortgage REITs. The fund is non-diversified.
Still time to bet against XLREThere is still plenty of downside on XLRE.
Interest rates are going to continue to drive demand down, combined with recession pressures and supply chain issues, the long term outlook on home is a huge crash and affordability issues in most major cities.
Even if rates return to an amicable percentage, inflation and supply chain issues will push new homes up higher, even in areas where supply is not a problem.
This is potentially a 5 to 10 year problem, even after rates, inflation, and supply chain issues are remedied, we will still be fighting for space in any major city where there is work.
XLRE: Where we've come fromHere's a chart I put together that illustrates what the big players are experiencing with Real Estate.
Larger firms trade the sector and if you were to be a 'buyer' since COVID, you would join a pool of others that the average participant is now losing money.
The trend is clear and it very well will likely keep going south while the Fed continues to raise rates.
